*((((( ''LE TOUR'' de France 2015)))))*

On Wednesday the 22nd of October the official 2015 Tour de France route was revealed in Paris.  Speaking from the Team Sky team-building camp in Weymouth, Chris Froome gave his first impressions of the 2015 route.  Here's what the 29 year old Team Sky leader had to say:

"There's no two ways about it, next year's Tour is going to be about the mountains. There's very little emphasis on time trialling which means the race will be decided up in the high mountains. With 6 mountaintop finishes it is going to be an aggressive and massively demanding race."



The 2015 edition has little opportunity for riders to make significant gains on their rivals in time trials with a time trial stage one of only 13.7km and a team time trial of 28km on stage nine. This is notably less than in recent editions of the Tour de France.

Froome's participation in the 2015 Tour de France is not certain, as he explains: "The team and I will have to give it some careful consideration before we make any commitments to which of the grand tours I will compete in.  I see myself as quite a balanced GC rider and the Giro with it's inclusion of a long TT of 60km and tough uphill finishes will make it a well balanced race which suits me well.  If I did the Giro I may also be able to get myself back to top shape for the Vuelta and go there with a realistic chance of aiming for the win".

"In the past I've only targeted one grand tour each season but it could be a good opportunity for me to focus seriously on two.  It's still early days though and we'll have to sit down and put our heads together as a team to work out what 2015 is going to look like for us."

The Grand Depart in Utrecht, Holland on the 4th of July will see the riders off on their three week quest for the maillot jaune, passing through Belgium before entering Northern France on stage four.  Stage five will have the riders tackle cobble sectors from the infamous spring classic Paris-Roubaix.

Froome's bid for the 2014 title came to an abrupt end after a series of crashes in which his wrist and hand were fractured forcing him out of the race.  His withdrawal from the race came on the wet roads of stage five which also later contained cobble sectors.

When asked about the inclusion of cobbles on stage five of the 2015 edition, he sounded upbeat "I actually quite enjoy the challenge of riding on the cobbles. It's a difficult and stressful obstacle for us to overcome when it's part of a race like the Tour de France, but we're all in the same boat and there's no reason why I'd be any worse off than any of the other GC contenders".  He continued "The cobbles were not the cause of my departure from the Tour this year, it was the crash on the previous stage which could have happened to anybody.  I was in the wrong place at the wrong time".

Who will be Froome's biggest rival if he does line up for the Tour?  "We'll have to see who's going to be there but I think Alberto Contador will be the man to beat.  You can never discount the likes of Nairo Quintana, Vincenzo Nibali and other GC contenders like Purito (Rodriguez) and Valverde.  Alberto is the guy who stands out though.  He came back after his injury in an amazing way to win the Vuelta España title this year and I expect him to be just as strong next season" - Chris Froome.

From Utrecht to Paris: 
- 9 flat stages
- 3 hilly stages
- 7 mountain stages
- 5 summit finishes
- 1 ITT
- 1 TTT

L’ALPE D’HUEZ !

Etape 20 on the 25th July

Modane > Alpe d’Huez comes just 24 hours before Paris.

A few to mention......

Alberto Contador 11/4
Chris Froome 11/4
Nairo Quintana 10/3
Vincenzo Nibali 6
Thibaut Pinot 33
Rafal Majka 40
Joaquim Rodriguez 80
Alejandro Valverde 100

The 18 bends of Montvernier, set to enter the legend of the Tour de France.

http://www.bing.com/images/search?q=The+18+bends+of+Montvernier&FORM=HDRSC2#view=detail&id=61E87244F27335AC72CEF5C190695B8D3E0B86A5&selectedIndex=0

http://www.letour.fr/le-tour/2015/us/stage-18.html

Far too early to be taking any strong positions about this.

Any of the big four can win this. Quintana and Froome are actually probably the best out-and-out climbers but Nibali and Contador are far more streetwise and tactically astute.

Moreover, there's a good chance we won't see all four line up. Froome could target the other two GTs and there's no guarantee any of them will be fit. As things stand I'd make Froome the least likely winner of the four, but a lot can change before July.

Lance Armstrong having to pay a record $10m (£6.5m) in damages after losing lawsuit

Quintana 7/2 Porte 200/1 ew and Rodriguez 100/1 ew

Nibali might have the tour won after stage 2, otherwise I think you will get better odds during the race.  I know Nibali has finished 1st, 2nd, 1st in his last 3 grand tour attempts but he has shown nothing for 12 months. The good thing about him is he will never stop trying things even if he can't climb with the best and no ITT suits him as well I guess.  Why you keen on Nibali mc?

Quintana and Nibali for me will play nearer the date

I think it is important to analyze what could win and lose this Tour de France. For me the important things will be:

Team strengthThis is always important but far more so this year. The TTT will be critical. Rather than at the start of the tour it comes after 8 straight days of racing when legs will already be hurting, and cruelly, has several climbs including the final Cote de Cadoudal which is 1.7km @ 6.2%. Making sure you get 5 men over the line in the quickest time possible could be tough here, and some teams could really suffer and lose time if their 5th man is suffering. You need at least 5 strong climbers here. All four of the leading contenders will be likely to have strong teams for this but Astana are definitely strong.
Experience We don't get into the mountains until Day 10 but the first 8 stages can be characterised as "tricky". The ITT up front should be neither here nor there (although I expect they will finish Froome-Nibali-Bertie-Quintana) which means individual time-trialling ability is virtually unecessary in this Tour, but there are several other possible pitfalls over the next few days. Stages 2 and 6 have strong possiblility for crosswinds and chevrons. Stages 3, 6 and 8 have uphill finishes where the unwary/unready could lose time. Stage 4 has several cobbled sections. Add in the complication of teams hunting stage wins, the sprint teams trying to boss the peloton on the flat stages and the general early nervousness at Grand Tours and you have the potential for crashes and time losses. In my eyes Nibali and Contador have an advantage over Froome and Quintana here. They are wiser, smarter, better bike handlers and have better instincts. Moreover, Nibali's classics experience means he has a better knowledge of these types of stages. He might not necessarily make time over these stages (although I'm sure he is targeting the cobbles again) but he is the least likely to crash out or lose time. If Quintana and/or Froome get through the first 10 days and are still in contention they would be a big danger, but Astana know that and I think they will try and serve it up in the early section of the race to try and maximise any advantage Nibali has on those early stages.
Climbing There is a lot of climbing in this tdf. Having said that, there aren't too many stages where we will see big time gaps. Stage 12 is probably the first with the HC summit finish at Plateau de Beille. Stage 17 is the same as the stage Bardet won in the Dauphine that finishes on Pra Loup. Stage 19 has 4 big climbs and finishes on the Cat 1 La Toussuire and Stage 20 is the Alpe d'Huez summit finish. These are the probably the stages where this GT will be won and lost. With all four men at their absolute peak I would have Nibali the weakest of the four in terms of climbing. Having said that, I don't think there is much in it. To me Nibali has planned his training completely in order to peak for this defence of the yellow jersey. He looked good during the Dauphine but to me was clearly using it as race-training and wasn't fully tuned up at that point. When he dropped off near the end of climbs on two big stages it was as if he had reached the level he wanted and just eased back as opposed to suffering and going into the red at that early stage of his training. Froome was near top-level and we saw Bertie was in the Giro. You can't really say Froome winning the Dauphine a month before the Tour is a negative, Sky have done that twice before, but it's a different case with Bertie and the Giro. I don't know whether he is capable of staying at peak but personally I see having ridden and won the Giro as a negative. Who knows what sort of shape Quintana is in? He is probably the most natural climber of the 4 and seemed like he was in decent nick at the Route du Sud but I would want a far better price to back him at this stage.
Descending
When Nibali is at his best he is the most natural and aggressive descenders of the 4 big men. This could play a big part in this Tour. We saw Bardet make 1min 20 seconds over the peloton during the descent off Col d'Allos in the Dauphine prior to the climb at Pra Loup and this gap was not pegged back despite the Sky train going full eyes out and then Froome attacking in the last few kms. Although Nibali rode that descent with restrain during that race I'm confident he will attack here and we could see the same sort of gaps, or worse if it's wet. Moreover, this is not the only key descent during this race. There's the long descent off the Tourmalet on Stage 11 before the short final climb of Cauterets, Stage 16 sees us come off the Col de Manse into Gap and the next day (Stage 17) we see the descent Bardet attacked on. I'm confident Nibali will see all these as opportunities to make time on his rivals. Bertie is a good descender, as is Quintana. Froome is OK. None are as fast as Nibali.

So to summarise, I see Froome and Quintana as natural climbers who will look to gain time on the summit finishes of Stages 12, 17, 19 and 20. Bertie and Nibali know to win this they will probably have to make time in other ways, and will be on the lookout for ways to ambush the Sky and Movistar men (and each other). Cobbles and crosswinds are early opportunities and the descents in the latter part of the race could also help. The team time trial could be crucial as well, although all four big contenders have strong climbing lineups so it may be the other teams that lose out there (FDJ, BMC, Katusha?). So I feel that the race could be won by an 'ambush' style rider, rather than a natural climber and I favour Nibali over Betie for two main reasons. 1) Price - Nibali is more than twice the price. 2) The Giro - I feel that at some stage the Giro will take its toll on the legs and Bertie will pay during this GT.

I was wrong, no col du telegraphe and no col du galiebier because of the landslide but still finish at l'alpe d'huez.

Col Du Galibier is replaced by a climb up the Croix de Fer

Interesting mc, thanks.

Chris Froome has stated that he thinks the GC race doesn't start until stage 10.  It looks like he might be in damage limitation mode up until that time.  The first 10 stages might be an opportunity for Contador and especially Nibali to attempt to put time into Froome and Quintana.  CD might be onto something with a back to lay call on Nibali.  Maybe riders like Costa and Uran could also do well in the first 9 stages.

Hopefully Quintana's expedition over the cobbles earlier in the season will serve him well on stage 2.  Moreover hopefully the weather stays fine for the tricky stages.

My book is:

Froomered
Quintana red
Field [colour=green]green[/green]
Nibali [colour=green]big green[/green]
Valverde [colour=green]bigger green[/green]
Dan Martin [colour=green]biggest green[/green]

lots of speciality markets available with pp

7/4 Pinot to win a stage appeals , his time trialling is pants so may be allowed a stage win by GC contenders

that would be fantastic if you have the time please mc

Sky:

Chris Froome, Geraint Thomas, Ian Stannard, Wout Poels, Nico Roche, Leopold Konig, Pete Kennaugh, Luke Rowe & Richie Porte.

I like this team. First they have 6 Brits (although that is counting Brum-born Roche and Kenyan-born Froome so cheating a little bit). There is a good combination of climbing power and flat strength. It is going to be absolutely crucial to get 9 men through to the TTT. Any teams that have lost riders by that stage will suffer that day.

Kennaugh strikes me as the ideal type of rider for Sky to mix things up by sending him up the road in breaks, whether they would rather stick to their usual formula of keeping all eight with Froome is another matter.

Sky's line-up looks super strong, they should go well on the climbs and win the TTT.  Froome could have over a minute on Quintana before stage 10, just from stage 1 and stage 9 alone.   Astana and Tinkoff teams look strong too.  Astana are possibly geared more toward the TTT/medium mountains (with a bit more diesel) whereas Tinkoff look like they will have a bit more support for Contador in the high mountains but also have a strong TTT team on paper.  Movistar usually struggle in TTT's outside Spain but I think they can hold their own against Astana and Tinkoff on this course.  Movistar have the current British, Italian and Spanish national TT champs on their team so they could be in for a good TTT if they can find the right balance/rhythm on this hilly course.

T.Martin, Kwiatkowski and Uran is as strong of a trio as you will get in a TTT like this but I agree that this TTT will probably be more about strength in numbers.  I hope the price holds up for Sky and all their riders make it to the stage 9 start line.