*((((( ''LE TOUR'' de France 2015)))))*

that would be fantastic if you have the time please mc

nearly ready to go

Sky:

Chris Froome, Geraint Thomas, Ian Stannard, Wout Poels, Nico Roche, Leopold Konig, Pete Kennaugh, Luke Rowe & Richie Porte.

I like this team. First they have 6 Brits (although that is counting Brum-born Roche and Kenyan-born Froome so cheating a little bit). There is a good combination of climbing power and flat strength. It is going to be absolutely crucial to get 9 men through to the TTT. Any teams that have lost riders by that stage will suffer that day.

2015  »  102nd Tour de France (2.UWT)

This should be an absolute stunner of a race. We have got four absolutely top class GC riders all facing off on what could be the best parcours for many years. Ultimately, this race has heaps of climbing, and with the lack of TT miles it will suit the best climbers with mountaintop finishes on Stages 10, 12, 17, 19 and 20. It also has other uphill finishes that may not lead to big time gaps but should be entertaining on Stages 3, 6, 8, 11 and 14. Although the winner of this year's Tour will almost definitely be the rider who is strongest in the mountains, he will have to get through the first 10 stages first, and these look particularly nasty, especially the first week's Classics based trilogy.

After the Grand Depart ITT in Utrecht we have a stage that from Utrecht to Zeeland, that follows the North Sea and is begging for crosswinds and echelons. Next we see a stage that resembles La Fleche Wallone and finishes on the Mur de Huy. Following that the riders take on the cobbles in a stage from Seraing to Cambrai. Any of these three stages could see the race over for one of the big favourites. We then have a busy flat stage where the wind could blow but might end in a sprint, a chaotic flat stage with a punchers’ finish in Le Havre, a true flat stage and then another uphill finish at Mur de Bretagne. The team time trial comes on Day 9, where legs will already be very sore. The climb at the end should see big time gaps. Every man lost during the first 8 days will be crucial, because it will make the TTT harder, and we could see some very ragged looking teams at the end. Finally, the riders get a rest day, but this too could provide problems because Stage 10 after it has an HC climb at the end.

After that we have Pyrenean climbs, transitional stages that all look interesting and different before a lot of Alpine climbing with accompanying descents towards the end of the race. The last mountain stage sees us go (back) over the Croix de Fer and L'Alpe D'Huez so the GC may well be decided on the penultimate day of the race.

As well as first week of classic style races, we have a number of other changes this year. We have time bonuses for winning stages in the first week, and we have a change to the points classification to reward winners of true flat (super sprint) stages. This is to try and get the green jersey on the back of the most explosive sprinter, rather than the most consistent and may lead to Sagan having his work cut out to win it again.

All in all this should be a brilliant Grand Tour. Despite the plethora of climber-friendly stages, I think the 2015 Tour de France will be won by someone who combines team strength and experience, who can avoid crashing out or losing time in the first week and I think Vincenzo Nibali is that man. Admittedly, Quintana and Froome will be big threats if they are still in contention after the TTT but it might be worth waiting until the first rest day before backing those two. It remains to be seen if Contador will be able to find top level after this Giro win but if he can retain/regain top form for three weeks he will be a force.

Tour de France Winners
2014 | NIBALI Vincenzo
2013 | FROOME Christopher
2012 | WIGGINS Bradley
2011 | EVANS Cadel
2010 | SCHLECK Andy
2009 | CONTADOR Alberto
2008 | SASTRE Carlos
2007 | CONTADOR Alberto
2006 | PEREIRO Oscar
2000 | ARMSTRONG Lance

Top-10 2014 Tour de France
1.NIBALI Vincenzo 89:59:06
2.PERAUD Jean-Christophe 7:37
3.PINOT Thibaut 8:15
4.VALVERDE Alejandro 9:40
5.VAN GARDEREN Tejay 11:24
6.BARDET Romain 11:26
7.KöNIG Leopold 14:32
8.ZUBELDIA Haimar 17:57
9.TEN DAM Laurens 18:11
10.MOLLEMA Bauke 21:15

Startlist http://www.procyclingstats.com/race/Tour_de_France_2015-startlist

Stage-by-Stage
Saturday 4th July Stage 1 (ITT) - Utrecht › Utrecht (13.8k)
Sunday 5th July Stage 2 - Utrecht › Neeltje Jans (166k) *Super Sprint*
Monday 6th July Stage 3 - Antwerpen › Huy (159.5k)*Sprint*
Tuesday 7th July Stage 4 - Seraing › Cambrai (223.5k)*Sprint*
Wednesday 8th July Stage 5 - Arras › Amiens (189.5k) *Super Sprint*
Thursday 9th July Stage 6 - Abbeville › Le Havre (191.5k) *Super Sprint*
Friday 10th July Stage 7 - Livarot › Fougères (190.5k) *Super Sprint*
Saturday 11th July Stage 8 - Rennes › Mûr-de-bretagne (181.5k)*Sprint*
Sunday 12th July Stage 9 (TTT) - Vannes › Plumelec (28k)
Tuesday 14th July Stage 10 - Tarbes › La Pierre-Saint-Martin (167k)
Wednesday 15th July Stage 11 - Pau › Cauterets (188k)
Thursday 16th July Stage 12 - Lannemezan › Plateau de Beille (195k)
Friday 17th July Stage 13 - Muret › Rodez (198.5k)*Sprint*
Saturday 18th July Stage 14 - Rodez › Mende (178.5k)*Sprint*
Sunday 19th July Stage 15 - Mende › Valence (183k) *Super Sprint*
Monday 20th July Stage 16 - Bourg-de-Péage › Gap (201k)*Sprint*
Tuesday 22nd July Stage 17 - Digne-Les-Bains › Pra-Loup (161k)
Wednesday 23rd July Stage 18 - Gap › St-Jean-de-Maurienne (186.5k)
Thursday 24th July Stage 19 - St-Jean-de-Maurienne › La Toussuire - Les Sybelles (138k)
Friday 25th July Stage 20 - Modane › l'Alpe d'Huez (110.5k)
Saturday 26th July Stage 21 - Sèvres › Paris (109.5k) *Super Sprint*

Favourites

Froome 2/1
Quintana 5/2
Contador 4/1
Nibali 11/2
Pinot 28/1
Van Garderen 33/1
Valverde 66/1
Majka 66/1
Bardet 66/1
Porte 66/1
http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/winner

Sagan 10/11
Kristoff 4/1
Cavendish 13/2
Degenkolb 12/1
Matthews 25/1
Bouhanni 25/1
Coquard 25/1
Greipel 33/1
Boassen Hagen 66/1
Demare 80/1
http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/points-classification
*pay attention to place terms in this market as many bookmakers are only paying 2 places on each way bets


Quintana 11/2
Rolland 10/1
Contador 11/1
Froome 11/1
Rodriguez 16/1
Arredondo 16/1
Pinot 20/1
Bardet 25/1
Hesjedal 28/1
Barguil 28/1
http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/king-of-the-mountains


Quintana 4/7
Pinot 5/1
Bardet 10/1
Kelderman 20/1
Barguil 25/1
Kwiatowski 25/1
S Yates 33/1
A Yates 50/1
http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/young-rider-classification


Posters
2015


2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

Kennaugh strikes me as the ideal type of rider for Sky to mix things up by sending him up the road in breaks, whether they would rather stick to their usual formula of keeping all eight with Froome is another matter.

Nibali in the outright market and Cav in the points market both being backed which is pleasing to see.

Be interesting to see if we have any late withdrawals from the Tour with the introduction of 24-hr testing...

Sky's line-up looks super strong, they should go well on the climbs and win the TTT.  Froome could have over a minute on Quintana before stage 10, just from stage 1 and stage 9 alone.   Astana and Tinkoff teams look strong too.  Astana are possibly geared more toward the TTT/medium mountains (with a bit more diesel) whereas Tinkoff look like they will have a bit more support for Contador in the high mountains but also have a strong TTT team on paper.  Movistar usually struggle in TTT's outside Spain but I think they can hold their own against Astana and Tinkoff on this course.  Movistar have the current British, Italian and Spanish national TT champs on their team so they could be in for a good TTT if they can find the right balance/rhythm on this hilly course.

PP going 8/1 for Sky to win the TTT 4th favourites, which is an absolutely awesome price. They price it up like this:

Etixx 5/4
BMC 5/2
Movistar 9/2
Sky 8/1

In my eyes Sky have got by far the best squad for this and should be favourites. Of course how many men you have left after the first 8 stages is hugely important but Sky have 4 very strong time triallers in Froome, Thomas, Porte and Konig and also have 7 men who are strong climbers. Only Rowe and Stannard don't really fall into this category. They are the only team who should definitely have men left on the Plumulec. Unfortunately I can only have £7.11 on

T.Martin, Kwiatkowski and Uran is as strong of a trio as you will get in a TTT like this but I agree that this TTT will probably be more about strength in numbers.  I hope the price holds up for Sky and all their riders make it to the stage 9 start line.

Surprising to see Movistar that short, shorter than Astana and Tinkoff anyway.  They do seem to have some time trialling fire power in their team with 3 national champs, but I'm guessing those were won on flat tracks.  This TTT isn't mountainous but it's far from flat.

Almost doesn't matter about the flat speed here, any team that doesn't have 5 decent climbers left for the final climb will lose heaps of time here. I think Astana and Movistar could beat Etixx here.

Agree, hence why I think Sky will win it.

I agree with your analysis mc, regarding the climbing at this tour.  Even if Quintana proves to be the best climber in the race I don't know if there is a hard enough MTF for him to make the difference that he needs.  Stage 12 and 19 look hard stages and maybe he can take some time on those MTF's, but if he is to win the tour I think he's going to have to do something brave/risky like attack early in the stage, possibly on the Tourmalet (stage 11) or the Glandon (stage 18) or the Croix de Fer (stage 19).  I'll actually be disappointed If someone doesn't attack on the Tourmalet on stage 11, hopefully its Quintana.  Whatever the case I will probably wait on backing Quintana until after the TTT in hope of a better price.  Maybe after stage 1 for a small stake as well in-case one or more of the other big four drop out of contention in what will be some nervy racing in the first 8 stages. 

Im seeing 8% (was 20% yesterday, lol) chance of rain for stage 4 (cobbles) at the moment with wind 20km/h from W, so a crosswind for 20km (with 4 cobble sections) starting from 40km to go, then a headwind for the final 20km.  Stage 2, 5% chance of rain with the last 40km along the coastline, looking like 13-16km/h crosswind, not too bad but will surely feel like more with the exposed nature of the roads.

Would be nice to see the big 4 going at it mano-a-mano on the MTF's but it's probably gonna be "all-aboard" the Sky train and hope you can hang on til the last stop!

£7.11 was not personal to you marychain; it's all I was offered either.

We have no King of the Mountains thread, maybe interest is low

i shall be having a couple of small bets here

Steven Kruijswik   e/w @ 33/1
Alexis Vuillermoz   e/w @ 150/1

I was offered a mere £3.55 on that sky for TTT bet... Those £7.11 bets must have seen them off!

Great work as usual MC with your write up's and doing the threads for each stage, much appreciated.

My take on the GC is that the bookies seem to have it priced up right, exactly in the order i would expect them to finish, Froome, Quintana, Contador, Nibali, there does not seem a lot of value in backing any of these really, Nibali may have looked  a bit of ew value last week but as i see him as the least likely of the three to podium he is not for me.

I think last years win has been over rated, yes he was impressive but he beat nothing in the end as Froome and Contador were gone before the mountains, if they had been there in the mountains i'm pretty sure both would have made up the time they lost to Nibali early and more. I don't even believe nibali will gain as much time in the first week this year as he did last year, as he will certainly lose time on stage 1 and 9 to froome and with a very benign weather forecast for next week any gains in between will probably just negate that. Then come the real mountains and i am certain Nibali will lose a heap of time to Froome, Quintana, and possibly contador. I'm against Bertie as i think it's just too hard these days to ride a second grand tour in a year going against riders of the calibre of Froome, Quintana and Nibali.

So I have it between Froome and Quintana, i think it's going to be a real monumental battle in the mountains, and after seeing the Sky team I am convinced  Froome will prevail, it just looks a phenomenal all round team, put that to his form from the Dauphine and it's going to be very hard for anyone to beat him. Have backed him at 5/2 and will go in more if he drifts at all during the first 8 stages.

I have also backed Froome  for KOM at 10/1 ew, if he does go head to head with Quintana in the mountains they could really smash some of the stages as he showed in the Dauphine, and his price just looks big compared to Quintana's. Have also had a little on PINOT in kom at 22/1 ew, really think this route is made for him to be competitive and he could well challenge for the podium if things go really well for him. If however he loses heaps of time in first week or pyrennees he could just go for stages in the alps and the kom jersey??

Have done CAV for points at 6/1 ew, thanks for the heads up there MC, I didn't realise there had been such a big change to the scoring system and it does seem to favour the real sprinters now, and like you say Cav should prob be fav here.

Have also had a small ew on Joaquim Rodriguez for the gc at 33/1, just because he has long been one of my favourites and he always seems to come strong in the 3rd week of a grand tour. With there not being much tt, he may not lose too much time in the first 2 weeks and could well surprise a few people with how strong he will be come the alps.

Thats it for me so far, do also like the look of Sky for the TTT that looks a hell of a price for what looks the strongest team, but i will wait until nearer the time to back to be sure they still have the full team!

Really looking forward to it and if the racing so far this year is anything to go on it should be a cracker every day!

Gl all.

Agree it should be between Froome & Quintana if they are still there and in contention after the TTT. I do think the pair of them will be bigger prices at some point though, and I'm hoping to adjust my book accordingly. I agree that Froome will make time in Stage 1 and 9 if all teams line up with 9 but I do think Nibali (and Bertie to a lesser extent) should be favoured by the first week. Maybe the wind won't blow and maybe it won't rain but the street furniture, murs and cobbles should still favour the streetwise.

My book:

Froome 140
Quintana 140
Nibali 330
Majka 730
Valverde 1050
Dan Martin 4270
Field 70

Also
Nibali 6/1ew
Pinot 40/1ew
Nibali/Cav ew double 11/2 & 6/1


Sagan 37
Cavendish 70
Field 25

Also
Cavendish 7/1ew (2 places)
Cavendish 7/1 win only

Not had any bets for Polka yet

In my opinion it was only the absence of Froome & Contador that gave Nibali the self belief to dominate the rest of the field last year.
Looked totally out of form this year and the first one I would cross off.

Heatwave predicted during the tour.  Temps of mid to high 30's C.  From what I can remember Contador thrives in the high temps.  Froome prefers it to not be really cold.  Nibali seems to go well in the really cold stuff as does Quintana.  One rider who has really struggled in the heat in the past is the ever improving Thibaut Pinot, hopefully thats behind him now.  In general you would think the heat should suit the Spaniards more.

The thing with Nibali for me is he is a rider who has shown steady progression year upon year up until the point last year where it was apparent to him and everyone else that he was a true contender who could compete with the best in the business, I just dont know if he has continued on that upward trend or even held that same level this season due to an apparent lack of results.  I do see however, just like last year he comes into the tour as the Italian road race champion after winning that title again last weekend, his first win since winning the tour 12 months ago.  I wouldn't write off the crafty Itie just yet.

As for Contador, can he really win 3 GT's on the trot, let alone the elusive giro-tour double?  I cant write him off either though with those memories from the vuelta last year still fresh where he dispatched Froome easily on nearly every key MTF.  Also, I believe he won this years giro with basically his B-game and wouldn't be surprised if he's got a bit left in the tank.  He has history against him but I would probably have him in front of Nibali.

I probably have to agree with happybacker in that I think the bookies have the GC market about right, maybe Quintana a bit unders.  Not a great deal of value and would hate to see what would happen to the prices if one or more of the big 3 went down before stage 9.

*big 4

I like the way you're thinking mc with Valverde and Dan Martin, they should surely trade at shorter odds during the race.  Have you thought about sprinkling a bit on those two for the green jersey.  There seems to be lot of stages where they could potentially be in the mix. Stage 1 and 9 will be costly for Martin with regards to GC and Valverde might have to work for Quintana at some some stage during the race but I think the parcours could be very favourable to both, throw in Joaquim Rodriguez to that mix as well.  I think if any of them were to actually target the green jersey they could be in with a good shout at big odds.

To wear the Yellow Jersey at any stage?;

Tom Dumoulin 2/1
Michal Kwiat 9/4
Alejandro Valverde 2/1
GVA n/a

Look good bets to me

Uran 7/2 and Kelderman n/a good chances to wear yellow also

and Rui Costa

I was thinking Spartacus to wear yellow at 6/1. He's an outside chance to get it first up, but he's unlikely to lose time on Stage 2 if the winds blow, and if the group is very reduced could even pick up bonus seconds sprinting. He won't be on the scene on Mur de Huy but whatever time he loses he could well get back and more on the cobbles.

Agree about Kwiatowski as well at 11/4 as I said previously.

Shame there's no price for Geraint Thomas in that yellow jersey market. He could potentially get it at any time in the first 9 stages.

Thomas would be well deserving of a Maillot Jeune indeed.

I did look at Canc, you're right he could win the stage 1 TT, If stage 2 is blown apart by the wind he'll probably be there.  The finish on the Mur on stage 3 kept me off him though.  I'm thinking the time GVA loses to Canc in the time trial will be less or close to the time Canc will lose to GVA on the Mur. Then stage 4, GVA is no Cancellara on the cobbles but is still one of the better riders on them (3rd at Paris-Roubaix this year).  6-1 is tempting though for Spartacus though as he could do a "Spartacus" on the cobbles.  I wonder what price Thomas or GVA would be anyway?

Thomas would be deserving of a young jersey?

Will GVA will be on babysitting duty for Rohan and Tejay?

A few random thoughts about this year's Tour

Hate the parcours.  Unbalanced, repetitive, very little that is new.  No proper hills stage.  A few stages look good but in the main it looks like the Vuelta.  Of course you can have a dull race on a great route and vice versa

GC. For me it's between Quintana and Nibali.  The former is going to drift to a good price - I'm thinking PdB (st 12) is where he'll start making inroads.  Nibali gets a bit better every year and is the proper racer out of all of them

Sprints. With no Kittel and doubts about Bouhanni there is a chance for someone to step up.  Cavendish has won quite a lot this season but mainly in lesser company.  You got the guys who need a hard finish (Kristoff, Degenkolb, EBH) and those that need a technical finish (Sagan, Matthews).  None of those are super fast though. Greipel is trying to do the Tour after the Giro, that's a bit of a questionmark for me.  I think Demare could be the one to step up and win at least one stage, maybe in Paris

Going into the Pyrennees some riders such as Pinot, Rolland, Costa, Navarro are probably going to be many minutes behind thanks to the TTT, mechanicals, crashes, the cobbles and punchy finishes.  These are the ones I see contesting the KOM (thanks to the silly points allocation this really means winning one of stages 10 or 12)

Lots of differring opinions here on GC

Four into three doesnt go so which of the big four is most likely to miss out on the podium

Quintana is probably the best climber in the field and he is unlikely to get a better parcours than he faces this year. He rode within himself in the  Route du Sud without showing his hand. he is saving his all for this race. He likes to attack early and his team is strong for the TTT

Contador is undoubtedly the best GC rider from the last 10 years. He is a great tactician and rides with the flair we would all like to ride with. It is always hard to oppose this legend of the sport

Nibali i dont think has really been given the credit for his win in last years Tour. Excuses were made for main contenders who crashed out but they were still racing on stage 2 when Nibali beat them all fair and square. He comes into this years race in very similar form to last year and won the Italian Road Race title last weekend. He represents the value

Froome to me is the weakest of the four main protagonists. His riding style never looks good and he looks brittle like he could crack on any stage. He probably should have won in Bradley's year but i think 2013 will turn out to be Froome's only Tour victory. This will not be a Tour where the victor grinds out mountain top stage wins , it will be won by an attacker, nobody will be waiting for Froome to ride himself back to the front at his own speed

Therefore my top 3 would be
Contador
Quintana
Nibali

i am happy to lay Froome, Nibali looks like a free e/w bet

There are bound to be lots of crashes in the first week and lets not forget just how nervous the whole peleton is during the first few days. Some of the racing lately, especially in the Giro was quite niggly and i hope this does not spill over into the Tour

Looking forward to a fantastic 3 weeks

Good luck with your punting

Sky 10/1 for the TTT now

Stages 1-5 up, I'll get 6-10 up from Wednesday onwards

Is Froome Injured?
He is 110 to Win the Time trial.
He had won Time trials before, also short ones.

Cedarmaster you're echoing my sentiments re Froome almost to a T
think the dude's overrated..also question how good his team will be in the mountains when the hammer is really down
think he's a definite lay at 2/1 here
of course i could be wrong(not unknown to put it mildly)
just hope the 'big 4' are all on form and we have a blinding race..not an anti-climax
let's get ready to rumble

Chris Froome –- Opened his season in Andalusia with a sparring display against Contador to win narrowly on GC. Was coming back from the illness which forced him to withdraw from the start of Tirreno-Adriatico when finishing way back and nowhere in Catalunya. Started to look ahead to this by riding in Romandie, and whilst he finished on the lowest step of the podium he rode smartly by employing a “yo-yoing” tactic of survival off the back of the selective peloton on the two climbs. Was ultimately found out in the ITT, however he did enough to lay a solid foundation of form and confidence on which to build in the Criterium Dauphine, where he looked like the devastating and unstoppable Froome of 2013, by winning the GC and the main two mountain stages against a combative TJVG. That was a very good ride and he looked like he had more improvement in hand. Has the benefit of a very strong, smart and experienced all-round team in SKY. Will be a formidable opponent in the mountains. Won this in 2013. Has shown his hard riding credentials in the past, so if he can put his cobbles failure of last year - when he crashed-out - behind him, he should be in this for a long way. Has shortened into the 2/1 favourite now as he comes into this as the form rider. No value whatsoever. Excellent prospects. Watch very closely.

Nairo Quintana –- After his marvellous debut here in 2013 when finishing 2nd on GC as a 23yo and largely unknown rider, he was relieved from the pressure of scrutiny and expectation for a repeat performance on the biggest stage in world cycling by not being included in the team for a return start here last year, but rather was set on the Giro and Vuelta season targets, instead. He passed the first test (in 2014) by winning the Giro when significantly ill during the race. Crashed once and then crashed again to crash out of the Vuelta. This season, he started his season slowly if similarly to last year in defending his San Luis GC title. Showed an impressive turn of speed in Tirreno-Adriatico when opening an easy gap over some top riders in the stage 5 climb into Terminillo in snowy conditions, and ultimately onto the top step on GC. He showed his highly impressive character in that stage and it was easily his best ride of the season. Next, he got some race training on the cobbles in DDV and E3. Came in as the race favourite for his ride in the Basque Country after having won that tough race in 2013, however he never really got going and finished in a disappointing 4th on GC. Again looked indifferent when he failed to spark his magic in Romandie, finishing in 8th place on GC. Last start, he showed some good signs when he finished in 2nd place on GC behind Contador in the Route du Sud. He is arguably the most talented rider in the race, one of the most exciting climbers, and was deserving of favouritism at SP on that basis, however his small stature and lack of experience on the cobbles and in the (possible) echelons of the opening northern stages, makes him somewhat vulnerable. Moreover, MOV have shown their inattention in the past at important moments in this race, namely when Valverde caught a puncture in that windswept stage 13 of the 2013 Tour, where he essentially lost all hope in the race. Quintana can make up a heap of time in the mountains if he finds his wings, but would not want to be further back than 90 secs on any of the top three by the start of the first stage after the first rest day (stage 10). Will be advantaged in the high mountains by his natural ability to recover from elevation strain since he comes from altitude. Has drifted with the Books into a 5/2 second favourite. Still little value. Warrants the utmost respect. Wait to see.

Alberto Contador –- Finished just behind Froome on GC in his opening race of the season in Andalusia. Then performed below expectations in Tirreno-Adriatico when he finished in 5th place. Similarly was off his best in Catalunya when 4th. Next, came out strong early in the Giro and got his own way to win the GC with ease. Last start, won the Route du Sud from Quintana in a nice tune-up for this. Has won this race in 2007 and 2009. At 32yo he is suggesting that he is in career-best form, and given his experience and wily nature he will pounce on any weakness or exploit the smallest advantage. Is on target for the Triple Crown of Cycling and is apparently attempting it for the first time in his career after previously claiming the Giro/Vuelta Double in 2008. Has an excellent climbing team assembled around him in support and TCS are a smart outfit. Will have to keep his legs fresh into the third week. 5/1 third favourite. Some small value. Rated to 100%. Expect a bold showing.

Vincenzo Nibali –- As the reigning Tour champion he has treated this season with only the one aim of defending his title on French soil, and perhaps as a result it is not that unusual to observe that he has done absolutely nothing all season in the stage races he has ridden. In fact, his results in those stage races are as follows: 39th Dubai, 20th Oman, 16th Tirreno-Adriatico, 10th Romandie, and a 12th in the Crit Dauphine. His last start win in the Italian Nationals point-to-point, hilly race in Arona, which finished atop a six kilometre climb, was a strong defence of his title, however he was racing against inferior opposition and it comes as his one and only win this season, which whilst is the same as last year the opposition however isn’t the same. He proved last year in this race that he can find form fast and take advantage of his opportunities as they present themselves, and he should be a solid prospect in the early northern portion of the race given his legitimate credentials on the cobbles and in the (possible) echelons. Has a fair team in support. Nevertheless, in the twelve Tour editions since 1996 no rider has won the Tour back-to-back, and in the last seven editions of this race there have been seven different winners. 11/2 fourth favourite. Some value. Hard to discount. Prefer others.

I think there’s plenty of time to be made on the principal mountain stages, enough for a rider to come back into the race if he has experienced ill-luck or got caught out by inattention in the opening northern stages, especially if that rider is Quintana or Froome. The Books initially framed this market according to the notion that the GC race is in the mountains and I tend to agree, however whilst I like Quintana in the mountains he is unlikely to win this race in these opening northern stages since he would require crashes and ill-luck to befall his three opponents.
          Froome on the other hand has shown the best building form for the start of this, and he can come from behind once the mountains appear, or he can build on a lead should he get through the opening stages unscathed, and on that basis he is my outright pick.
          Even if Nibali gains some time early I think he can be cracked in the mountains by either Froome or Quintana with some ease, and whilst he may shorten on the back of some similar panic in the market to last year and some good trades can be had, I still think he is only a podium contender if all goes as expected and there is a shoot-out in the mountains of the third week.
          Contador is likely to be the one to require the lead early since he knows how to defend to full advantage, and if he is behind than I don’t think he will be the equal of Froome or Quintana in the mountains of the third week. I therefore think he can crack off the back of two more bruising encounters in the mountains against the other three principals.
          TJVG will look to ambush the top-4 early to stake his vocal podium claims on the back of his Crit Dauphine ride and approach, but is likely to ultimately fail in his mission, perhaps only just though if we get the unforeseen scenarios happening as they nearly always do in a race of this magnitude.

Good luck to all,
SP

P.S. Bit tardy with the post but not necessarily my analysis.

P.S.2: Have wanted to keep this post my own since -- as you guys already know -- I like to initially crystallize my thoughts without involving the debating approach against the previous comments, but have indeed read all the previous posts and am aware of those opinions, some similar some not at all.

P.S.3: Cheers casemoney, very nice comment mate.

P.S.4: Well done marychain1, a huge amount of heavy-lifting already done for the forum.

Don't know about you lot but I cannot wait for tomorrow

Good read that SP

Here are the votes/mentions for the top four by the forum contributors on the fred so far. If anyone else wants their picks adding let me know, or if anyone wants to adjust their picks feel free. Some people said back to lay or something similar, and a couple of people mentioned backing more than one of the big 4. Interesting we've got a good spread.

Froome
Swinging Pick
Happybacker

Quintana
GoBallistic 
nugget

Contador
Cedarmaster

Nibali
marychain
ClayDavis
Casemoney

Lars Boom (Astana) has been reported for abnormally low cortisol levels in the pre-race checks. UCI have said that Boom cannot be replaced. Choices for Astana now are to withdraw from MPCC (this is a health issue rather than an anti-doping issue technically although low cortisol levels just before a GT is very strange and perhaps a pointer to something dodgy) or go into the Tour de France with a man down. A massive blow for cycling and Astana if it's the former, and a massive blow for Astana and Nibali if it's the latter.

Seems like Astana got the results of the test at 2pm. At 3pm he was sitting in their press conference

Astana statement:

Boom's cortisol is ok for the tdf but too low for MPCC standards.

Astana have asked for activation of named reserve rider Alessandro Vanotti to the TDF squad but official registration of riders closed on Friday at 10.30am, before the notification.

Vanotti will arrive in the Utrecht on Saturday morning to undergo physical & blood tests and await a UCI decision on the matter.

Really like Kwiatkowski to be wearing yellow at any stage.  Etixx could have a big first week with Tony Martin favoured to win the stage 1 TT and grab yellow, Stybar to feature on the cobbles, Cavendish in the hunt for some sprint wins and Kwiatkowski to be in Maillot Jaune at some point.

some well informed,knowledgeable guys on this forum with incisive,thoughtful previews..nice post SP
i know the whole sport is tarnished with the spectre of doping but it is still absolutely one,if not the major sporting highlight of the year for me(and i love nearly all sports) esp when they hit the mountains
still of the opinion Froome is beatable & too skinny(pricewise not body tho' he is defo whippet like)..has 3 credible adversaries this year..is defo not going to be a stroll in the park even if he is to prevail
final word on the matter...LAY Froome

Hrmm out of all of Astana's riders I would have Boom as the least likely to flag. The fact he has an issue suggests to me that legally or illegally Astana domestiques are going to be Giro-like.

Horrible PR for Astana and the Tour.

That's probably why they got his levels mixed up, he's new to it unlike the other Astana riders. Anyone find it funny how Nibali struggles all year then turns up to the tour flying?  After barely getting their license back just before the giro they haven't done much since then to reduce peoples suspicions of them.

Nibali's training plan was always built around this race and this race only. In the Dauphine you could tell he was using it as training rides. He said as much beforehand. He was doing work at the front of the bunch for Scarponi, getting into breaks etc. His training level just wasn't high enough - you could see on the big mountain stages he never put himself into the red, just got to the level he wanted to then kept that pace to the end of the stage. There was no agony, no anguish. He's clearly further on now.

I agree with MC. Makes Nibali's price on here quite enticing if he's going to ride these upcoming stages -- but especially the pave -- in a similar aggressive manner as last year. Then again if it was his turn to find trouble this time around than there's the risk of holding useless green, so I therefore think that Quintana is the best trade for a lay. I think that his price can only go in one direction since he would require misfortune finding his opponents to regain -- over these potentially tricky stages -- not insubstantial gaps over his rivals, namely +11 secs to Froome and +18 secs to Nibali, and it's likely he will lose even more time given his vulnerable stature if tough nature comes. The only foreseeable problem are the time bonuses over the next seven stages, where he could wipe out gaps quite quickly by finishing 1st (10 secs), 2nd (6), 3rd (4) over those rivals. However, even if he were to take advantage of some such circumstances, I don't expect that his price would get smashed necessarily, not if such company is in the race, and not with so many stages in the mountains remaining.

I thought time bonuses were only up to the first rest day, are they available for every stage? Will consult the road book.

Nope, only the next seven stages as I've stated mate.

From the website

They had disappeared since 2008. Bonus seconds will again be awarded at the finishes of the 2nd to the 8th stage. The bonuses will be of 10, 6 and 4 seconds for the first three of each of these stages.

Oh sorry, I misunderstood you. I thought you were saying Quintana could take advantage of time bonuses. You do clearly say the next seven stages.

Just looking at the weather forecast for Zeeland. It looks like there won't be the predicted wind. 6mph is predicted for 3pm tomorrow, and it will also be hot. However, the summary is for scattered thunderstorms and the chance of rain is about 50% in the mid-afternoon.

There are conflicting statements about the bonus seconds.  Maybe ASO had a change of heart. The official rules & regs (which you can download) say nothing about bonuses only being in play up till a certain point in the race and I'm inclined to go with that. Also Voeckler seems to believe this to be the case since he is moaning about the bonus secs making it less likely for breaks to survive and the stages he would be targeting would be in the second half of the race

Pretty sure the website is correct that 2-8 carry 10, 6, 2 seconds bonus. Good idea imo, make the first few stages even more keenly contested. Don't think the intermediates carry time bonuses.

Official regs

http://www.letour.com/le-tour/2015/docs/TDF15_Reglement-BD.pdf

Always useful for knowing which stages have which points, time limits, 3 km rule in play etc

You need a whole year to get ready for the tour? What about stage 6 at the Dauphine when he put in a big attack from a strong breakaway on the final climb and cleared out on Valverde, Costa and Gallopin (he looked like he was going for it to me) he had a big gap and looked home only for Costa to catch and pass him for a nice stage win. Was it part of his training to sit up and give Costa the stage win? I agree his whole year revolves around the tour, I just cant see what benefit he gains by being so bad for the rest of the year. He has no form all year, then turns up to the Dauphine only a month before the Tour and is in "training mode", then rocks up to the Tour and he is flying.  I'm not surprised though to see him peaking for the tour.

After-all he rides for Astana and his team boss is Vino.

I remember reading somewhere that they changed the bonus seconds from being available on stages 1-8 to all mass start stages.

ARTICLE
26

Bonuses
Time bonuses are awarded at all of road stage
finishes that is to say with the exception of the
individual and team time trial stages.
They are 10, 6 and 4 seconds to the first three
riders to finish.

Really really tough stage to call tomorrow. No bet is a fine play here. The weather doesn't look too bad but I reckon the pace they'll be going on a road of limited width the wind will only have to blow a little bit to smash the peloton to pieces near the end.

I reckon if the weather plays no part at all then this is really only between Cav and Greipel, merely on their flat out speed and the strength of their trains. Only Giant have a comparable train and Degenkolb simply doesn't have the speed on a true flat sprint. Kristoff has a good train but not the best. He will rely on being able to maintain his sprint. Kristoff is definitely capable of finishing in the top 2 or 3 but probably can't win these stages if Cavendish and Greipel trains work and they are on form. Bouhanni has the speed but probably not the train or fitness. Coquard and Demare are just picking up pieces as they don't have teams to compete. Sagan is the interesting one. He doesn't have the speed to beat Cav, Greipel, Bouhanni or even Kristoff but he is an absolute master at following the right wheel, as he showed when he got into Kittel's slipstream so many times last year.

If the wind blows however, all bets are off. We could end up with a front rank of GC guys only if echelons form, although you'd have to expect Sagan and Cavendish to be in there. Wind blowing or not, I expect Spartacus to make a play for the jersey today, and I'm getting him on board at 125/1.

With no wind I would expect Cav, Greipel & Kristoff to fight it out, and Cav or Greipel to win. The three of them are the fastest and have the best form. If Cav is going to win the green jersey today is a very important stage. I think Cav wins but the price isn't great.

Very good analysis of stage 2 mc, excellent post, not a lot left to say really.  The last 40km are right on the water (in Holland!) and the finish is literally in the ocean.  Weather not being a factor would be a little suprising.  Im starting to think Lotto-Soudal have the best train but I still think Cav is more foolproof than Greipel in the bunch sprints.  Of the 5 flat super sprint stages I think this might be Kristoff's best chance to beat Cav and Greipel although he would probably prefer a few more km's in the stage.  I'll probably be on Kristoff and hope we get a gust or two and a bit of rain wouldn't hurt.  Also watch out for LottoNL-Jumbo pushing to create echelons, GC riders will need to be attentive.

Nice drift on Quintana -- the analysis remains unchanged though, since there are stages remaining which may continue to give him trouble, and therefore there's no point bringing him back from red just yet as he is likely to lose even more time. Not laying anymore though as I think Nibali may be a reasonable price to back now and therefore the better trading value. Just looking ahead and he's going to treat the stage after next -- the cobbles stage -- as a real opportunity to gain some time back on his rivals. At +1.21 back on Froome, he will go on the attack on the cobbles with his confidence up from last year's performance, in order to worry the other riders into making mistakes, and him gaining some time back on them, especially with the bonuses on offer on the line. Not sure how sensitive the market is going to be to his attacks in that stage, probably not very, more likely he'll actually need to open a big gap, or gain a chunk of time in the finish, and it's obviously reliant on him not finding trouble up the Mur de Huy tomorrow, but it's a small if worthy project at that price on here, I believe.

Tomorrow's stage will see more damage to the hopes of some imo. Fingers crossed everyone finishes ok, but I can't see it. It will be worse than Fleche Wallonne imo and there were several race-ending crashes in that. Knowing the course is a big, big help tomorrow.

Hey guys! I missed the first 2 days (on vacations) and i can see a lot have happened!

I have layed Quintana and backed Nibali pre Tour, so isnt the worst for me. I can see Quintana loosing even more time before we hit the big climbs. Looking forward to today's stage, could be a cracker!

Quintana 1'56'' down on Froome and he is the same price he was before the start of the race

Nibali 1'38'' down on Froome and is a slight drifter, 7.0 out to 8.0

Contador only 36'' down on Froome and has drifted the most out of the big 4, out to 9.0


If Quintana doesn't lose any time on the cobbles tomorrow he could come into favouritism. Joking of course


Also prices for the TTT on stage 9

Sky out to 14/1
Astana 12/1
Tinkoff-Saxo 66/1 (may have lost a rider today)
Movistar 5/1

marychain1 02 Jul 15 08:08
I was thinking Spartacus to wear yellow at 6/1. He's an outside chance to get it first up, but he's unlikely to lose time on Stage 2 if the winds blow, and if the group is very reduced could even pick up bonus seconds sprinting.

I nailed that one anyway, and got 7s too.

...It's not like it's for pennies either, there are substantial sums being traded here.

Resistance on Quintana is based on how hard he is likely going to attack in the mountains now that he is so significantly behind. He is not going to have any option but to attack and a motivated Quintana, the most natural climber in the peloton by far, is going to attract some resistance from the market, I believe. So even though he is behind by the biggest margin, he is also the one rider with the potential to make the biggest gaps in the mountains, and not many want to be on the wrong side of him once the battles in the mountains begin since there is so much time to be had. Nibali holds some benefit of the doubt since he is suited by these upcoming stages, but traders are preparing to dump him some more tomorrow if he doesn't repeat his heroics on the cobbles and gets some time back on his rivals, like last year. If his current gap exists by stage 10 than I would expect Nibali to have had his price blown right out, since the general understanding is he wouldn't be a force in the mountains against his rivals. Contador seemed to have been easily dispensed with by Froome on the Mur de Huy today, and given the understanding that he may be tired by the third week by having run and won the Giro, such a failure has obviously spooked some and they've positively dumped him.

...Basically it tells the story of what is likely going to happen and not necessarily what the situation is now. Narrative is taking dominance over current situation, which is not that surprising since a futures market is influenced by possible and likely outcomes away in the distance.

I'm guessing the market is still expecting Nibali to make time over Froome and Quintana tomorrow. If he doesnt his price will rocket. I guess the market also thinks Quintana and Nibbles have lost time due to circumstance whereas Bertie has actually shown some weakness in the legs today. I'm not convinced a climb of that nature means too much though.

Good point fellas.  So by this logic, on stage 4 the market expects Nibali to take time on Quintana and Froome.  Quintana to not lose any time to Froome.  Contador to crash on the cobbles or start looking tired soon thereafter.  The only thing I will say is that sometimes the current situation can dictate how the narrative actually goes (kind of like your Froome planting the seed of doubt comment from earlier sp). With the lead Froome has he can ride a bit more defensively with less stress, whatever the current situation is a lead is still a lead under any circumstance. We shall see I guess.  I just thought Froome having a 2 minute lead on Quintana would warrant a bit more of a drift on Quintana's price.

I think the market (pre-race) judging the relative rivals strengths in the mountains would have expected the special GC (SP's term) to look like this at this stage, assuming all GCs have stayed upright.

Nibali
Contador -1
Froome -1.30
Quintana -2.

So now Nibali should be huge, Contador & Quintana should be about where they started and Froome should have shortened considerably. If we look at the market now that's about what's happened. Contador is slightly bigger (I assume the market thinks he has shown some weakness) and Nibali maybe isnt as big now as I'd have expected (does the market think he's been strong but unlucky?)

For me, my GC book looks awful. Quintana has lost time but not drifted and Froome is odds on, the riders id backed - Martin, Nibali, Valverde, Majka - have not started well. To be fair Majka and Valverde were micro stakes hopeful "Plan B" punts if team leaders crashed out early but its unlikely my main GC hope Nibali will outgun his rivals in the mountains unless he engages full motorbike mode or cracks people on descents. Bertie/field may be my best hope now but we'll see...

Is anyone on TJ? He's started well.

I was thinking of backing TJ last night but was worried about today so held off. So I am slightly surprised he hasn't shortened again tonight so have added an ew bet on him at 20/1. I was looking for someone at a bigger price to place at the start off the tour, as had my doubts about Nibali and Contador then, and I did look at TJ then but went with Purito (who has lost plenty of time but i think will be very strong in the final week).

It looks very much like TJ and Froome have just carried on from where they were at the Dauphine, they were by far the strongest 2 there, so came here as the form riders and are looking that here too. It could be that others will ride themselves in to form but i'm not so sure, starting to think that they could be the 2 to fight it out all tour??

You could be right, although I would expect Nibali to be strong in the mountains and for Quintana to at least threaten to make time back.

Yeah but mc, you say at this stage the market expected

Nibali
Contador +1:00
Froome +1:30
Quintana +2:00

Which I agree with. I understand the price drift on Nibali which you explained well. We know he will keep attacking at every opportunity though.
Quintana though isn't 30 seconds behind Froome, he is 2 minutes behind him. Or, he isn't 2min behind Nibali, he is 2min behind Froome.  In other words he has lost more time than anticipated to the other rider who was perceived to be one of the top 2 climbers in the race(and prepost favourite).  Quintana's price is still the same price as he was before the race, lots of faith in the Colombian. 
As for Contador, I think he and Tinkoff would be quite happy with the current situation. Only 36sec down on Froome and 1:02 up on Nibali and 1:20 up on Quintana.  I concede he has looked in a bit of difficulty at times but a finish on the Mur de Huy and a cobbles stage might not be the best indicator of whats to come in the mountains. I'm a little bit surprised by the size of his price drift but he does have the giro in his legs I guess and has lost more time to Froome than anticipated. 
As for TJVG he is riding a good race at the moment and his team is doing a good job.  I still have that memory of him losing to Riblon (no mug) on the Alp D'Huez stage in the 2013 TdF.  A much improved rider now though, coming into the race with good form although we've had no mountain tests yet.  I do expect BMC to do a very good TTT on stage 9.

If I was pricng It up I would have
Froome 1.8
Quintana 4.5
Contador 8
Nibali 12

Lots of crosswind still to come and all the climbing still to do. Froome is in a good position and is probably a better all-round bike rider than people give him credit for. He does look super lean at the moment so maybe his rivals will hope for a bad day from him later in the 3rd week. We still have a good race on our hands.

I agree with that. If I wasn't red on Quintana already I would lay him here. Also I'd lay Nibali if it wasnt effectively redding out.

Paolini positive - cocaine (?!)

https://youtu.be/7raIxrzodt4

for those of you that havent seen this, it shows the mayhem of a crash and the cries of riders in real pain. Quite an eye opener. Makes you appreciate more what the riders actually go through

BACKED Nairo Quintana 11/4.....should be fun to watch in week 3. A BIG Thank You marychain1 for on all your excellent & detailed inputs on here.

A bit of a mixed bag for Etixx in the first week.  3 stage wins with two being a little unexpected and Cav seemingly struggling then bouncing back in style. Two yellow jersey's then the yellow jersey holder crashing out.  Then they've also managed to keep Uran safe as he sits nicely on the GC only 34sec behind Froome and in the hunt for a podium in Paris.  Better than most.

Jul 10, 2015 -- 3:34PM, cedarmaster wrote:

https://youtu.be/7raIxrzodt4for those of you that havent seen this, it shows the mayhem of a crash and the cries of riders in real pain. Quite an eye opener. Makes you appreciate more what the riders actually go through

Yeah cedar I watched that one the other day. Footage from a Gopro on the OGE mechanic. Matthews is strolling around in a bit of a daze, skin off everywhere and two fractured ribs, mechanic goes and gets him a new bike, he gets back on and finishes the stage. Impey waiting for a new bike from the mechanic, mechanic brings one back for him and asks "are you ok?", he replies "shoulders sore" he gets on the bike asks for a couple of bottles and finishes the stage, is later found to have a broken collarbone. Gerrans just standing around, checking on other riders with broken bones in his wrist, on the positive side for him, apparently as he requires surgery on his wrist and hand he can have the plate in his collarbone removed at the same time.   OGE mechanic was earning his money there, I think I counted him speaking four different languages. I dont really get into the off-bike persona's of the riders myself usually or social media in general but OGE do put out some good stuff on twitter and youtube.

Paolini positive is an odd one.

I suspect some sort of contamination as it doesn't really make sense. Cyclists and cocaine have mixed for years but surely he wouldn't have been silly enough to take it pre/mid race.

The metabolite he has been popped for can apparently stay in the system for 10-15 days so may have been pre-race

ffs wish I got 14/1 about Sky for the TTT. Into 4/1 now.  Not super keen at that price as I'm not sure about the form of some of their riders.  Froome and Thomas are the only ones who look really good, maybe the others have been saving some energy or are expecting to produce in the mountains.

terrible news about Ivan Basso, not good news for Contador either. Having had a similar problem earlier this year lets hope they have caught it in time

Yes terribly sad news For Basso hopefully he will make a quick and full recovery. It's also obviously a blow for Contador to lose one of his key men but it may well work to provide him with extra motivation. He was very close to Basso and has already spoke of getting the yellow jersey in Paris for Basso to be there.

As we now head to the mountains and the first really big tests of this tour, I've decided to have another look at the kom competition. At the outset I backed Froome 10/1 and Pinot 22/1, both are now much shorter! I didn't really anticipate Froome would be leading now and be so far ahead of the likes of Quintana and Nibali, as it is he doesn't need to win stages or attack yet. He has talked of riding defensively in the Pyrennees to maintain his position.  So it would now seem unlikely he will win the kom competition. Quintana is obviously rightly the favourite and simply has to attack but is too short a price for me. Pinot on the other hand is now out of the gc picture and so could well really target this now, I just doubt whether he has the form or fitness or right frame of  mind after what he has been through so far??
After the first week of racing we now have several decent climbers who have dropped right out of gc contention, and so may well turn the attentions to winning the kom jersey. The likes of Pinot, Bardet, Rolland, Martin, Hesjedal, Costa, etc could all now target this but the riders i'm most interested in are the Yates brothers. They have dropped right out of the gc picture, and OGE have had such a terrible first week they will surely be looking to get something out of the tour. They are both capable climbers, will be allowed toget in breakaways or attack out oof the peleton, as no one will see them as a danger anymore. Of the two i slightly  favour Simon Yates, have backed him ew at 50/1 and had a samller bet on Adam at the same price.

Watched that Froome video that was released with his power numbers last night. There's nothing dodgy but the big minus for Froome is that if I was a Movistar/Tinkoff/Astana DS I'd have a fair idea when Froome is likely to be at his max. At least where Froome 2013 would likely to be at his max.

May be a big factor in the final week.

Confused about the hacking thing. Didnt they release the Ventoux data to a newspaper? How is that hacking?

http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2013/jul/18/team-sky-chris-froome-data

Someones picked up via other means. There's a been a 2014 Vuelta file released today.

Again shows nothing apart from how to beat Froome.

Maybe thats the hacking that Brailsford was on about then. Just didnt really add up that the 2013 Ventoux data was what he was talking about when he said 'hacked'. Its hardly likely to show anything spectacularly incriminating anyway if they were happy to give it to a newspaper to try to defend Froome (unless im missing something)

Some interesting news that doesn't seem to have been covered in many places. Seems that a fan punched Richie Porte on the climb at stage 10, after the tacks in 2012 and the syringes in 2013 it shows some cycling fans to be complete morons.

Potentially an issue to take account of when backing/laying Froome for GC.

I lived in France for 5 years and though there are many nice people there are still a lot of French that hate the British and all we stand for. Hence the hatred for Team Sky. The instances with Porte and Froome in the last couple of days do not shock me at all. I remember being in La Toussuire in 2012 when Wiggins went to the presentation post stage to receive the yellow jersey, not one person applauded or cheered  and in fact some openly booed. The French have a massive chip on their shoulders where we British are concerned and it hurts them to see us dong so well in the tour when their riders are struggling. Just hope  Froomey wins by 10 mins + now and really sticks two fingers up to them.

A rider tweeted he saw a spectator spit on Richie Porte on stage 15. Stay classy France.

Yes Porte and Rowe were both spat on yesterday as well as Froome being disgracefully attacked, Sky had a full gendarme guard when warming up today, is terrible to see. The French press have a lot to answer for, they are continually questioning how clean Sky and Froome are and suggesting that their methods are not in the spirit of cycling!

Exactly the same argument as 15 years ago

I've not done very well on this Tour de France, it will be my worst Grand Tour for some time and I'm due to make an overall loss. I'm red on Froome (and Quintana) and have written that off. I'm also red on Sagan in the green market, and need Greipel to save me there. I'm fairly happy with my analysis of the points classification but just identified the wrong sprinter. The stages have been slightly better but I've only managed to find the winners of bunch sprints so far and the couple of placed riders I've found elsewhere haven't been enough to save me.

Join the club. Have made a good profit in every GT since 2011 apart from Giro 2014 & Vuelta 2013. Three figures down at the moment with nothing to come on the overall unless we get a Pereiro situation.

I've had bad days, really bad days and moderately successful days. Still time to pull it back in the Alps though.

[i]SwingingPick • July 3, 2015 6:51 PM BST

"Chris Froome ...... No value whatsoever."[/i]

nugget • July 6, 2015 4:39 PM BST
Couldn't believe Froome was still near 3.0 yesterday, thought he'd be closer to evens.