Almost doesn't matter about the flat speed here, any team that doesn't have 5 decent climbers left for the final climb will lose heaps of time here. I think Astana and Movistar could beat Etixx here.

I agree with your analysis mc, regarding the climbing at this tour.  Even if Quintana proves to be the best climber in the race I don't know if there is a hard enough MTF for him to make the difference that he needs.  Stage 12 and 19 look hard stages and maybe he can take some time on those MTF's, but if he is to win the tour I think he's going to have to do something brave/risky like attack early in the stage, possibly on the Tourmalet (stage 11) or the Glandon (stage 18) or the Croix de Fer (stage 19).  I'll actually be disappointed If someone doesn't attack on the Tourmalet on stage 11, hopefully its Quintana.  Whatever the case I will probably wait on backing Quintana until after the TTT in hope of a better price.  Maybe after stage 1 for a small stake as well in-case one or more of the other big four drop out of contention in what will be some nervy racing in the first 8 stages. 

Im seeing 8% (was 20% yesterday, lol) chance of rain for stage 4 (cobbles) at the moment with wind 20km/h from W, so a crosswind for 20km (with 4 cobble sections) starting from 40km to go, then a headwind for the final 20km.  Stage 2, 5% chance of rain with the last 40km along the coastline, looking like 13-16km/h crosswind, not too bad but will surely feel like more with the exposed nature of the roads.

£7.11 was not personal to you marychain; it's all I was offered either.

I was offered a mere £3.55 on that sky for TTT bet... Those £7.11 bets must have seen them off!

Agree it should be between Froome & Quintana if they are still there and in contention after the TTT. I do think the pair of them will be bigger prices at some point though, and I'm hoping to adjust my book accordingly. I agree that Froome will make time in Stage 1 and 9 if all teams line up with 9 but I do think Nibali (and Bertie to a lesser extent) should be favoured by the first week. Maybe the wind won't blow and maybe it won't rain but the street furniture, murs and cobbles should still favour the streetwise.

My book:

Froome 140
Quintana 140
Nibali 330
Majka 730
Valverde 1050
Dan Martin 4270
Field 70

Also
Nibali 6/1ew
Pinot 40/1ew
Nibali/Cav ew double 11/2 & 6/1


Sagan 37
Cavendish 70
Field 25

Also
Cavendish 7/1ew (2 places)
Cavendish 7/1 win only

Not had any bets for Polka yet

Heatwave predicted during the tour.  Temps of mid to high 30's C.  From what I can remember Contador thrives in the high temps.  Froome prefers it to not be really cold.  Nibali seems to go well in the really cold stuff as does Quintana.  One rider who has really struggled in the heat in the past is the ever improving Thibaut Pinot, hopefully thats behind him now.  In general you would think the heat should suit the Spaniards more.

The thing with Nibali for me is he is a rider who has shown steady progression year upon year up until the point last year where it was apparent to him and everyone else that he was a true contender who could compete with the best in the business, I just dont know if he has continued on that upward trend or even held that same level this season due to an apparent lack of results.  I do see however, just like last year he comes into the tour as the Italian road race champion after winning that title again last weekend, his first win since winning the tour 12 months ago.  I wouldn't write off the crafty Itie just yet.

As for Contador, can he really win 3 GT's on the trot, let alone the elusive giro-tour double?  I cant write him off either though with those memories from the vuelta last year still fresh where he dispatched Froome easily on nearly every key MTF.  Also, I believe he won this years giro with basically his B-game and wouldn't be surprised if he's got a bit left in the tank.  He has history against him but I would probably have him in front of Nibali.

I probably have to agree with happybacker in that I think the bookies have the GC market about right, maybe Quintana a bit unders.  Not a great deal of value and would hate to see what would happen to the prices if one or more of the big 3 went down before stage 9.

I like the way you're thinking mc with Valverde and Dan Martin, they should surely trade at shorter odds during the race.  Have you thought about sprinkling a bit on those two for the green jersey.  There seems to be lot of stages where they could potentially be in the mix. Stage 1 and 9 will be costly for Martin with regards to GC and Valverde might have to work for Quintana at some some stage during the race but I think the parcours could be very favourable to both, throw in Joaquim Rodriguez to that mix as well.  I think if any of them were to actually target the green jersey they could be in with a good shout at big odds.

Uran 7/2 and Kelderman n/a good chances to wear yellow also

I was thinking Spartacus to wear yellow at 6/1. He's an outside chance to get it first up, but he's unlikely to lose time on Stage 2 if the winds blow, and if the group is very reduced could even pick up bonus seconds sprinting. He won't be on the scene on Mur de Huy but whatever time he loses he could well get back and more on the cobbles.

Agree about Kwiatowski as well at 11/4 as I said previously.

Thomas would be well deserving of a Maillot Jeune indeed.

I did look at Canc, you're right he could win the stage 1 TT, If stage 2 is blown apart by the wind he'll probably be there.  The finish on the Mur on stage 3 kept me off him though.  I'm thinking the time GVA loses to Canc in the time trial will be less or close to the time Canc will lose to GVA on the Mur. Then stage 4, GVA is no Cancellara on the cobbles but is still one of the better riders on them (3rd at Paris-Roubaix this year).  6-1 is tempting though for Spartacus though as he could do a "Spartacus" on the cobbles.  I wonder what price Thomas or GVA would be anyway?

A few random thoughts about this year's Tour

Hate the parcours.  Unbalanced, repetitive, very little that is new.  No proper hills stage.  A few stages look good but in the main it looks like the Vuelta.  Of course you can have a dull race on a great route and vice versa

GC. For me it's between Quintana and Nibali.  The former is going to drift to a good price - I'm thinking PdB (st 12) is where he'll start making inroads.  Nibali gets a bit better every year and is the proper racer out of all of them

Sprints. With no Kittel and doubts about Bouhanni there is a chance for someone to step up.  Cavendish has won quite a lot this season but mainly in lesser company.  You got the guys who need a hard finish (Kristoff, Degenkolb, EBH) and those that need a technical finish (Sagan, Matthews).  None of those are super fast though. Greipel is trying to do the Tour after the Giro, that's a bit of a questionmark for me.  I think Demare could be the one to step up and win at least one stage, maybe in Paris

Going into the Pyrennees some riders such as Pinot, Rolland, Costa, Navarro are probably going to be many minutes behind thanks to the TTT, mechanicals, crashes, the cobbles and punchy finishes.  These are the ones I see contesting the KOM (thanks to the silly points allocation this really means winning one of stages 10 or 12)

Sky 10/1 for the TTT now

Is Froome Injured?
He is 110 to Win the Time trial.
He had won Time trials before, also short ones.

Chris Froome –- Opened his season in Andalusia with a sparring display against Contador to win narrowly on GC. Was coming back from the illness which forced him to withdraw from the start of Tirreno-Adriatico when finishing way back and nowhere in Catalunya. Started to look ahead to this by riding in Romandie, and whilst he finished on the lowest step of the podium he rode smartly by employing a “yo-yoing” tactic of survival off the back of the selective peloton on the two climbs. Was ultimately found out in the ITT, however he did enough to lay a solid foundation of form and confidence on which to build in the Criterium Dauphine, where he looked like the devastating and unstoppable Froome of 2013, by winning the GC and the main two mountain stages against a combative TJVG. That was a very good ride and he looked like he had more improvement in hand. Has the benefit of a very strong, smart and experienced all-round team in SKY. Will be a formidable opponent in the mountains. Won this in 2013. Has shown his hard riding credentials in the past, so if he can put his cobbles failure of last year - when he crashed-out - behind him, he should be in this for a long way. Has shortened into the 2/1 favourite now as he comes into this as the form rider. No value whatsoever. Excellent prospects. Watch very closely.

Nairo Quintana –- After his marvellous debut here in 2013 when finishing 2nd on GC as a 23yo and largely unknown rider, he was relieved from the pressure of scrutiny and expectation for a repeat performance on the biggest stage in world cycling by not being included in the team for a return start here last year, but rather was set on the Giro and Vuelta season targets, instead. He passed the first test (in 2014) by winning the Giro when significantly ill during the race. Crashed once and then crashed again to crash out of the Vuelta. This season, he started his season slowly if similarly to last year in defending his San Luis GC title. Showed an impressive turn of speed in Tirreno-Adriatico when opening an easy gap over some top riders in the stage 5 climb into Terminillo in snowy conditions, and ultimately onto the top step on GC. He showed his highly impressive character in that stage and it was easily his best ride of the season. Next, he got some race training on the cobbles in DDV and E3. Came in as the race favourite for his ride in the Basque Country after having won that tough race in 2013, however he never really got going and finished in a disappointing 4th on GC. Again looked indifferent when he failed to spark his magic in Romandie, finishing in 8th place on GC. Last start, he showed some good signs when he finished in 2nd place on GC behind Contador in the Route du Sud. He is arguably the most talented rider in the race, one of the most exciting climbers, and was deserving of favouritism at SP on that basis, however his small stature and lack of experience on the cobbles and in the (possible) echelons of the opening northern stages, makes him somewhat vulnerable. Moreover, MOV have shown their inattention in the past at important moments in this race, namely when Valverde caught a puncture in that windswept stage 13 of the 2013 Tour, where he essentially lost all hope in the race. Quintana can make up a heap of time in the mountains if he finds his wings, but would not want to be further back than 90 secs on any of the top three by the start of the first stage after the first rest day (stage 10). Will be advantaged in the high mountains by his natural ability to recover from elevation strain since he comes from altitude. Has drifted with the Books into a 5/2 second favourite. Still little value. Warrants the utmost respect. Wait to see.

Alberto Contador –- Finished just behind Froome on GC in his opening race of the season in Andalusia. Then performed below expectations in Tirreno-Adriatico when he finished in 5th place. Similarly was off his best in Catalunya when 4th. Next, came out strong early in the Giro and got his own way to win the GC with ease. Last start, won the Route du Sud from Quintana in a nice tune-up for this. Has won this race in 2007 and 2009. At 32yo he is suggesting that he is in career-best form, and given his experience and wily nature he will pounce on any weakness or exploit the smallest advantage. Is on target for the Triple Crown of Cycling and is apparently attempting it for the first time in his career after previously claiming the Giro/Vuelta Double in 2008. Has an excellent climbing team assembled around him in support and TCS are a smart outfit. Will have to keep his legs fresh into the third week. 5/1 third favourite. Some small value. Rated to 100%. Expect a bold showing.

Vincenzo Nibali –- As the reigning Tour champion he has treated this season with only the one aim of defending his title on French soil, and perhaps as a result it is not that unusual to observe that he has done absolutely nothing all season in the stage races he has ridden. In fact, his results in those stage races are as follows: 39th Dubai, 20th Oman, 16th Tirreno-Adriatico, 10th Romandie, and a 12th in the Crit Dauphine. His last start win in the Italian Nationals point-to-point, hilly race in Arona, which finished atop a six kilometre climb, was a strong defence of his title, however he was racing against inferior opposition and it comes as his one and only win this season, which whilst is the same as last year the opposition however isn’t the same. He proved last year in this race that he can find form fast and take advantage of his opportunities as they present themselves, and he should be a solid prospect in the early northern portion of the race given his legitimate credentials on the cobbles and in the (possible) echelons. Has a fair team in support. Nevertheless, in the twelve Tour editions since 1996 no rider has won the Tour back-to-back, and in the last seven editions of this race there have been seven different winners. 11/2 fourth favourite. Some value. Hard to discount. Prefer others.

I think there’s plenty of time to be made on the principal mountain stages, enough for a rider to come back into the race if he has experienced ill-luck or got caught out by inattention in the opening northern stages, especially if that rider is Quintana or Froome. The Books initially framed this market according to the notion that the GC race is in the mountains and I tend to agree, however whilst I like Quintana in the mountains he is unlikely to win this race in these opening northern stages since he would require crashes and ill-luck to befall his three opponents.
          Froome on the other hand has shown the best building form for the start of this, and he can come from behind once the mountains appear, or he can build on a lead should he get through the opening stages unscathed, and on that basis he is my outright pick.
          Even if Nibali gains some time early I think he can be cracked in the mountains by either Froome or Quintana with some ease, and whilst he may shorten on the back of some similar panic in the market to last year and some good trades can be had, I still think he is only a podium contender if all goes as expected and there is a shoot-out in the mountains of the third week.
          Contador is likely to be the one to require the lead early since he knows how to defend to full advantage, and if he is behind than I don’t think he will be the equal of Froome or Quintana in the mountains of the third week. I therefore think he can crack off the back of two more bruising encounters in the mountains against the other three principals.
          TJVG will look to ambush the top-4 early to stake his vocal podium claims on the back of his Crit Dauphine ride and approach, but is likely to ultimately fail in his mission, perhaps only just though if we get the unforeseen scenarios happening as they nearly always do in a race of this magnitude.

Good luck to all,
SP

P.S. Bit tardy with the post but not necessarily my analysis.

P.S.2: Have wanted to keep this post my own since -- as you guys already know -- I like to initially crystallize my thoughts without involving the debating approach against the previous comments, but have indeed read all the previous posts and am aware of those opinions, some similar some not at all.

P.S.3: Cheers casemoney, very nice comment mate.

P.S.4: Well done marychain1, a huge amount of heavy-lifting already done for the forum.

Good read that SP

Lars Boom (Astana) has been reported for abnormally low cortisol levels in the pre-race checks. UCI have said that Boom cannot be replaced. Choices for Astana now are to withdraw from MPCC (this is a health issue rather than an anti-doping issue technically although low cortisol levels just before a GT is very strange and perhaps a pointer to something dodgy) or go into the Tour de France with a man down. A massive blow for cycling and Astana if it's the former, and a massive blow for Astana and Nibali if it's the latter.

Astana statement:

Boom's cortisol is ok for the tdf but too low for MPCC standards.

Astana have asked for activation of named reserve rider Alessandro Vanotti to the TDF squad but official registration of riders closed on Friday at 10.30am, before the notification.

Vanotti will arrive in the Utrecht on Saturday morning to undergo physical & blood tests and await a UCI decision on the matter.

some well informed,knowledgeable guys on this forum with incisive,thoughtful previews..nice post SP
i know the whole sport is tarnished with the spectre of doping but it is still absolutely one,if not the major sporting highlight of the year for me(and i love nearly all sports) esp when they hit the mountains
still of the opinion Froome is beatable & too skinny(pricewise not body tho' he is defo whippet like)..has 3 credible adversaries this year..is defo not going to be a stroll in the park even if he is to prevail
final word on the matter...LAY Froome

That's probably why they got his levels mixed up, he's new to it unlike the other Astana riders. Anyone find it funny how Nibali struggles all year then turns up to the tour flying?  After barely getting their license back just before the giro they haven't done much since then to reduce peoples suspicions of them.

I agree with MC. Makes Nibali's price on here quite enticing if he's going to ride these upcoming stages -- but especially the pave -- in a similar aggressive manner as last year. Then again if it was his turn to find trouble this time around than there's the risk of holding useless green, so I therefore think that Quintana is the best trade for a lay. I think that his price can only go in one direction since he would require misfortune finding his opponents to regain -- over these potentially tricky stages -- not insubstantial gaps over his rivals, namely +11 secs to Froome and +18 secs to Nibali, and it's likely he will lose even more time given his vulnerable stature if tough nature comes. The only foreseeable problem are the time bonuses over the next seven stages, where he could wipe out gaps quite quickly by finishing 1st (10 secs), 2nd (6), 3rd (4) over those rivals. However, even if he were to take advantage of some such circumstances, I don't expect that his price would get smashed necessarily, not if such company is in the race, and not with so many stages in the mountains remaining.