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03 Jul 14
09:56
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Date Joined:
11 Jul 11
The 2014 Tour de France returns to England for its Grand Depart for the first time since 2007, when the English capital held two stages to get the race underway. On this the 101st edition the three opening stages in the UK sandwich a hilly second stage through the scenic Yorkshire countryside, which should excite the big crowds expected along the race route with plenty of hard, attacking riding and the almost certain likelihood of breakaways forming as riders look to gain stage glory on the biggest stage in professional cycling.
Since the second stage is suited to a puncheur-type rider, this season’s one-day classics form may be a good indicator of the likely winner. And should such a breakaway rider hold a time gap of some note, then we may see that he keeps the yellow jersey for multiple days. UK hometown hero and sprint king from the Isle of Man, Mark ‘Manx Missile’ Cavendish, will aim to snaffle stage wins from bunch sprints in the first and third stage, however it might be wise to initially see how he has managed a bout of bronchitis which prevented him from defending his road race championship title in the British National Road Championship recently.
Once the race returns to Continental Europe and begins its clockwise route around France it nears Belgium on stage four, but it is not until stage five, where the start begins in Belgium and follows closely the ancient cobblestone roads used in the 2010 edition of the Tour. Seven of the nine pave sectors will be the same, but the riders will have to cover nearly two-and-a-half kilometres more, this time. This stage holds great danger to the hopes of the General Classification (GC) contenders, since the pave is notorious for causing mechanical failures with equipment such as punctures and tangled chains, to accidents causing rider injuries which can be so serious that they are forced to abandon the race. In fact, in the 2010 race, the two-thousand-four-hundred kilometre long sector at Sars-et-Rosieres (sector 5 this time) knocked out both Frank Schleck and Janez Brajkovic.
The first pave sectors will be quite critical, and not just because the two-thousand-one-hundred kilometre Carrefour de l'Arbre appears after eighty-seven kilometres of riding, and is rated with five stars as the most difficult type. What will additionally cause problems for the riders is the riders themselves. Simply, the peloton will likely still be quite large by the time they hit this first sector, and everyone will be wanting to be at the very front in order to make an attack or not miss following one. Riders with stage ambitions will be fighting for a forward placement amongst themselves and also amongst the GC contenders who will be looking to mark each other. It will be a nervous and fractious time in the peloton, and it all makes the likelihood of crashes occurring along these narrow and bumpy roads almost a certainty.
Riders with proven form over the cobblestones in races such as Paris-Roubaix who are riding for teams targeting stage wins will likely be involved in the selections leading to stage-winning moves. For instance in the 2010 Tour, Norwegian Thor Hushovd won this similar stage, and by so doing he confirmed his excellent 2nd place finish on much of the same sectors when riding Paris-Roubaix a few months earlier in the season. It also worth noting that Hushovd came into the race with clear ambitions and was riding very aggressively that year, finishing 3rd and 7th in the two stages prior to his pave stage win.
The Vosges Mountains appear with the start of stage eight, and the typical type of climbing on offer will be over long rather than steep mountains, or what are described as mid-mountains. This first course of climbing leads into the first rest day, and the GC contenders should come out firing on all cylinders.
The Alps don’t really feature much in this year’s race. Stage fourteen is arguably the only one true Alp stage with the riders having to climb the two famous peaks of the Col du Lautaret and the Col d’Izoard, both of which rest above two-thousand metres. The stage prior is a tough mountain-top finish, but technically it is in the Rhone-Alpes region, and the three categorized climbs will hold no great fears for the GC contenders, in any case.
Perhaps fearing another repeat dominant performance from defending champion Chris Froome, which would lead to an anticlimactic final week of racing, Amaury Sport Organisation (ASO) and particularly Monsieur Christian Prudhomme, as the general director of the Tour de France since 2007, has opted to jam-pack three tough mountain stages in the Pyrenees, and the one and only individual time trial (ITT) for the penultimate stage -- into the final week of racing. In regard to the idea of wanting a suspenseful race by having so many decisive stages in the final week of the Tour, it is quite similar to the 2011 edition, when in the final week three mountain stages led into the penultimate ITT stage, where the winner of the race was decided, actually. To support this view, in terms of legitimate GC wearers of the yellow jersey throughout the race, in each of the last two years there have been only one, while in the 2011 race there were three and the exchanges from initially Tommy Voeckler, then to Andy Schleck, and finally to winner Cadel Evans, occurred in the final week.
Chris Froome:
1st Oman: 1st Stage 5.
6th Catalunya: 5th Stage 3. 7th Stage 4.
1st Romandie: 2nd Stage 3. 1st Stage 5.
12th Crit Dauphine: 1st Stage 1. 1st Stage 2. 7th Stage 7.
He appeared to come out in clinical fashion in his opening race of the season in the Tour of Oman. Then was withdrawn from the Tirreno-Adriatico stage race as a precaution due to joint inflammation in the lower back. Started in the Tour of Catalunya, and in stage 3 he played into the hands of the eventual winner by not attacking prior to the ramp up to La Molina which suited eventual winner Purito Rodriguez. On that final ramp he exhibited an uncomfortable attack with little power and no sustained acceleration, and was soon overtaken before being passed by a number of riders and faded out of contention. Again as a precautionary measure was withdrawn from Liege-Bastogne-Liege with a mild chest infection on the morning of the race.
Finally showed some building form for the Tour in his last two starts, coming out in highly impressive fashion on stage 2 of the Criterium Dauphine with a devastating kick which dislodged all but his closest opponent in Contador. Might have won the race on GC if not for a crash in stage 6, which whilst not serious was certainly a contributing factor to his stunted performances for the two remaining stages.
The defending champion has had a disrupted season and his results show that, and clearly he has had some excuses, however he has shown enough form recently to suggest that he can be very competitive with the GC contenders. Rated highly.
Alberto Contador:
2nd Algarve: 3rd Stage 2. 4th Stage 3. 1st Stage 4.
1st Tirreno-Adria: 4th Stage 1. 1st Stage 4. 1st Stage 5.
2nd Catalunya: 2nd Stage 3. 3rd Stage 4. 6th Stage 5. 7th Stage 7.
1st Basque County: 1st Stage 1. 9th Stage 5. 2nd Stage 6.
2nd Crit Dauphine: 2nd Stage 1. 2nd Stage 2. 4th Stage 7.
Finished in 4th place here in 2013. Has won this race in 2007 and 2009. He is giving every indication this season that he has returned to near career best form. The late withdrawal of team-mate Roman Kreuziger from the team is not ideal, but it shouldn’t hamper his chances of performing very competitively with the GC contenders. Rated to finish better than last year. Commands the upmost respect.
Vincenzo Nibali:
44th San Luis:
17th Dubai:
12th Oman: 3rd Stage 4.
21st Paris-Nice:
5th Romandie: 7th Stage 3.
7th Crit Dauphine: 8th Stage 1. 6th Stage 2. 8th Stage 7.
Multiple Grand Tour winner. Last start in this race was in 2012, when he finished in 3rd place. Has shown recently that he is a little underdone, which suggests that he might be capable of working his way into the race in a developing form approach, and if he is not far from the leaders or indeed if he is alongside them in the final week, he may be a highly dangerous opponent. There have been some unofficial details of a rift in the team between the Kazakh and Italian riders, but one would hope that on the biggest stage in cycling such a potential difficulty for team harmony is not allowed to fester. Watch closely.
Alejandro Valverde:
27th Dubai: 7th Stage 3.
1st Andalucia: 1st Prologue, & Stages 1 & 2.
5th Basque County: 2nd Stage 1. 6th Stage 2. 2nd Stages 4 & 5. 8th stage 6.
2nd Route Sud: 2nd Stage 1. 3rd Stage 2.
Grand Tour winner. Finished in 8th place here in 2013 when he was unfortunate to require a wheel change on a day when crosswinds were buffeting and splitting the peloton apart. This season he has had magnificent one-day classic results with four wins, two podiums, and a 4th place finish. It is worth noting that he apparently didn’t require a hard test of his condition in one of the two lead-in races for the Tour, such as the Tour of Switzerland or the Crtiterium Dauphine, but instead selected a recon of the Pyreneenian stages (which will feature in the final week of the Tour) by riding in the three stage Route of the Sud race. Appears to be coming into this at the right time. One of the main contenders. Treat warily.
Tejay Van Garderen:
2nd Oman: 2nd Stage 5.
3rd Catalunya: 4th Stage 3. 1st Stage 4.
6th Basque County: 9th Stage 6.
13th Crit Dauphine: 9th Stage 1. 6th Stage 8.
Finished in 45th place here in 2013. Patchy form this season. Abandoned Paris-Nice after stage 1 due to a stomach illness. Then abandoned Tour of Romandie after stage 3 due to injuries suffered in a crash in the prologue. Has finally been promoted to captain for the Tour, and gets his chance to improve on his 5th place finish in 2012. Has the ability to reach the podium in this race under this arrangement, but needs to show improvement quickly. Hard to have at this time. Wait to see.
Jurgen Van Den Broeck:
24th San Luis:
16th Oman:
34th Catalunya:
27th Basque County:
3rd Crit Dauphine: 4th Stage 2. 5th Stage 8.
A DNF here in 2013, and a 4th place finish here in 2012. Abandoned Tirreno-Adriatico after Stage 2 due to injuries suffered in a crash. An experienced campaigner who is coming into this on the back of a noteworthy result in his last start. Worthy of some consideration for a podium position.
Richie Porte:
4th Down Under: 6th Stage 2. 1st Stage 5.
2nd Andalucia: 7th Prologue. 4th Stage 1. 5th Stage 2.
22nd Crit Dauphine:
Was a late addition to the team for Tirreno-Adriatico and abandoned after stage 4 due to a stomach illness. Then abandoned the Tour of Catalunya due to same illness. Abandoned the Tour of Romandie, also. Looked a little underdone in Criterium Dauphine, but may improve quickly through some forced, hard riding. Finished in 19th place here in 2013 after providing invaluable support to team-mate Froome. He was supposed to be given his chance to captain SKY in the Giro d’Italia, however circumstances prevented that from happening, and he will now again be riding for Froome here as his most trusted, and likely most diligent, lieutenant. Complicated matter, but not without prospects. Market best guide.
Andrew Talansky:
17th Tirreno-Adria:
7th Catalunya: 8th Stage 3. 6th Stage 4.
11th Romandie: 5th Stage 1.
1st Crit Dauphine: 4th Stage 1. 5th Stages 2 & 7. 4th Stage 8.
Finished in 10th place here in 2013 when on debut. A developing young rider who appears to be finally finding his place at the elite level on the back of his excellent last start result. Worthy of close consideration for a podium position.
Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez:
71st San Luis:
56th Dubai:
4th Oman: 4th Stage 5.
1st Catalunya: 1st Stage 3. 4th Stage 4.
Talented and experienced Grand Tour (GT) veteran who remains winless in 19 GT starts. Finished in 3rd place here in 2013 as a 34yo, his best ever performance, proving that his age is no barrier to performing well at this level. Crashed-out of the Giro d’Italia earlier with extensive injuries, before becoming a late inclusion for the start here. He has indicated that he has no expectation of challenging for the win on GC, but if properly healed from his injuries and with no obvious pressure to perform, he may –- in an ironic twist -- surprise with a strong podium performance at juicy odds. One which may prove rewarding to keep safe. Do not discount lightly.
Rui Costa:
15th Dubai:
3rd Algarve: 2nd Stages 1, 2 & 4.
2nd Paris-Nice: 2nd Stages 6 & 7.
51st Basque County:
3rd Romandie: 7th Stage 1. 3rd Stage 3. 8th Stage 5.
1st Switzerland: 7th Stage 3. 3rd Stage 7. 9th Stage 8. 1st Stage 9.
Reigning World Road Race champion, who smashed “the curse of the Rainbow Jersey” with a third consecutive win in the Tour of Switzerland, last start. Finished in 27th place here in 2013 when sacrificing his chances for then team-mate Valverde. Best result here is 18th in 2012. Not the purest of climbers, he has been reported as saying that he is aiming for a top-10 result as the captain of the team. Market best guide.
Michal Kwiatkowski:
1st Algarve: 1st Stages 2 & 3. 3rd Stage 4.
18th Tirreno-Adria: 1st Stage 1. 2nd Stage 3. 7th Stages 4 & 7.
2nd Basque County: 3rd Stages 1, 2, 3, 5 & 6.
Has performed very well in the one-day classics this season, with two wins, two podiums, and a top-5 finish. Abandonments from the Tour of Romandie after stage 3 and then after stage 6 in the Criterium Dauphine will not help his chances in improving on his 11th place finish here in 2013 when on Tour debut. Exciting young rider from Poland who may require more development and experience in a three week long race with such massive pressure and scrutiny as surrounds the Tour. Hard to have at this time. Others have stronger claims.
Frank Schleck:
31st Down Under:
19th Oman:
34th Paris-Nice: 6th Stage 8.
6th International: 4th Stage 3.
9th Luxembourg: 8th Stage 4.
Abandoned the Tour of the Basque Country after stage 5, and then after a crash on stage 2 of the Tour of Switzerland, most recently. Sat out on the sidelines in 2013 with a doping ban. Came closest to the win here when 3rd in 2011. Not much form to speak about and he is unlikely to make his presence felt amongst the GC contenders. Discount.
Romain Bardet:
13th Oman: 8th Stage 5.
36th Paris-Nice:
4th Catalunya: 9th Stage 3. 2nd Stage 4. 8th Stage 7.
15th Bavaria: 4th Stage 2.
5th Crit Dauphine: 5th Stage 5. 9th Stage 7. 2nd Stage 8.
Finished in 15th place here in 2013 when on GT debut. Another one of the promising young riders who may require more time to develop and gain experience in this pressure-cooker of a race around his native country. Hard to have at this time. Others have stronger claims.
Thibaut Pinot:
13th Catalunya:
9th Basque County:
10th Romandie: 9th Stages 3 & 5.
5th Bavaria: 2nd Stage 2.
15th Switzerland: 8th Stage 3. 9th Stage 7.
Had a slow start to the season with a withdrawal and an abandonment in the Tour of Oman and Tirreno-Adriatico, respectively. Gave every indication that he was a star of the future when he finished 10th here in 2012 as a 22yo. Wait to see.
Pierre Rolland:
80th Mediterranean:
74th Haut Var:
26th Tirreno-Adria:
26th Basque County:
4th Giro d’Italia: 4th Stages 15 & 19. 3rd Stage 16.
Abandoned Tour of Catalunya after stage 6. Finished in 24th place here in 2013. Best finish here was 8th in 2012. It will be interesting to discover if he is one of the very few riders in the history of cycling who responds well to riding GTs back-to-back. Is likely to be focused on hunting stage wins. Wait to see.
Andy Schleck:
72nd Oman:
66th Paris-Nice:
66th Basque Country:
24th Luxembourg:
29th Switzerland:
Abandoned the Criterium International. Finished in 2nd place here in 2009 and 2011. Finished in 20th place here in 2013. Deserves some respect after winning this race in 2010 when Alberto Contador was stripped of his victory, however he has given no indication this season that he is returning to career best form, which is what he would require in order to have a genuine claim on a podium position in Paris, and is therefore unlikely, on the available data, to figure amongst the major selections by the GC contenders. Take on trust.
Bauke Mollema:
6th Andalucia: 2nd Stage 1. 7th Stage 2.
22nd Tirreno-Adria: 9th Stage 1.
28th Basque County: 5th Stage 4.
3rd Norway: 9th Stage 3. 1st Stage 4.
3rd Switzerland: 7th Stage 1. 4th Stage 3. 3rd Stage 8. 2nd Stage 9.
Finished in 6th place here in 2013. Has had a workmanlike season, but gives the impression of being an improving rider. Additionally, will be out to impress due to sponsorship issues hanging over the team, and a likely move to a different team for next season. May be thereabouts for a podium position at big odds. Worthy of close consideration on that basis. Keep safe.
Simon Spilak:
9th Algarve:
8th Paris-Nice:
4th Basque County: 4th Stage 6.
2nd Romandie: 1st Stage 3. 7th Stage 5.
85th Crit Dauphine: 1st Stage 5.
Best finish here was in 2009 when 107th. Discount.
Any other rider: Write your own ticket.
The Points Classification or green jersey has normally been awarded to the best sprinter, and pure outright sprinters such as Mark Cavendish have been the natural recipients of it (2011). However, after Peter Sagan’s appearance on the scene with his expansive characteristics being suited to both sprints and stages with some moderate climbing involved, he has followed a clear pattern of wresting the green jersey from a sprinter or time trialist after the opening couple of stages and then holding it quite securely for the duration of the race. His short-priced favouritism and commanding position in the market reflects the increased amount of opportunities for claiming sprint points, due to his ability of distancing the pure sprinters when the road begins to rise in gradient.
The Teams Classification (TC) is a highly prestigious team prize since teams use it for promotional purposes. It is calculated by adding the times of each team’s three best riders per stage. The GC winner’s team doesn’t necessarily win the TC as riders devoted to their captain, by setting a strong pace for him or protecting his place in the peloton, often work so hard that they can fall right off the pace on a climb and finish way back on time. A team with a strong list of consistent and evenly-matched climbers not being flogged for their captain are much better suited to win this race within the race.
The Mountains Classification (MC) or polka dot jersey is rarely won by the winner of the yellow jersey as it's more suited to a stage-hunting climber who gets into long-range breakaways on mountain stages or stages which offer MC points. Since France hasn't had the opportunity to celebrate their own home-grown champion of the race for so many years, they are resolved to celebrate lesser results, and clearly they enjoy to see a Frenchman forging a long-range attack on a mountain stage. Thomas Voeckler seems to have made a career out of such attacks and he did win this jersey in 2012, giving the French fans the opportunity to admire his characteristics in themselves; however with Voeckler's intensity now waning on the climbs, the likes of Pierre Rolland and Thibaut Pinot appear to be suitable candidates for French admiration of such heroic efforts in the mountains.
Good luck to all,
SP
Since the second stage is suited to a puncheur-type rider, this season’s one-day classics form may be a good indicator of the likely winner. And should such a breakaway rider hold a time gap of some note, then we may see that he keeps the yellow jersey for multiple days. UK hometown hero and sprint king from the Isle of Man, Mark ‘Manx Missile’ Cavendish, will aim to snaffle stage wins from bunch sprints in the first and third stage, however it might be wise to initially see how he has managed a bout of bronchitis which prevented him from defending his road race championship title in the British National Road Championship recently.
Once the race returns to Continental Europe and begins its clockwise route around France it nears Belgium on stage four, but it is not until stage five, where the start begins in Belgium and follows closely the ancient cobblestone roads used in the 2010 edition of the Tour. Seven of the nine pave sectors will be the same, but the riders will have to cover nearly two-and-a-half kilometres more, this time. This stage holds great danger to the hopes of the General Classification (GC) contenders, since the pave is notorious for causing mechanical failures with equipment such as punctures and tangled chains, to accidents causing rider injuries which can be so serious that they are forced to abandon the race. In fact, in the 2010 race, the two-thousand-four-hundred kilometre long sector at Sars-et-Rosieres (sector 5 this time) knocked out both Frank Schleck and Janez Brajkovic.
The first pave sectors will be quite critical, and not just because the two-thousand-one-hundred kilometre Carrefour de l'Arbre appears after eighty-seven kilometres of riding, and is rated with five stars as the most difficult type. What will additionally cause problems for the riders is the riders themselves. Simply, the peloton will likely still be quite large by the time they hit this first sector, and everyone will be wanting to be at the very front in order to make an attack or not miss following one. Riders with stage ambitions will be fighting for a forward placement amongst themselves and also amongst the GC contenders who will be looking to mark each other. It will be a nervous and fractious time in the peloton, and it all makes the likelihood of crashes occurring along these narrow and bumpy roads almost a certainty.
Riders with proven form over the cobblestones in races such as Paris-Roubaix who are riding for teams targeting stage wins will likely be involved in the selections leading to stage-winning moves. For instance in the 2010 Tour, Norwegian Thor Hushovd won this similar stage, and by so doing he confirmed his excellent 2nd place finish on much of the same sectors when riding Paris-Roubaix a few months earlier in the season. It also worth noting that Hushovd came into the race with clear ambitions and was riding very aggressively that year, finishing 3rd and 7th in the two stages prior to his pave stage win.
The Vosges Mountains appear with the start of stage eight, and the typical type of climbing on offer will be over long rather than steep mountains, or what are described as mid-mountains. This first course of climbing leads into the first rest day, and the GC contenders should come out firing on all cylinders.
The Alps don’t really feature much in this year’s race. Stage fourteen is arguably the only one true Alp stage with the riders having to climb the two famous peaks of the Col du Lautaret and the Col d’Izoard, both of which rest above two-thousand metres. The stage prior is a tough mountain-top finish, but technically it is in the Rhone-Alpes region, and the three categorized climbs will hold no great fears for the GC contenders, in any case.
Perhaps fearing another repeat dominant performance from defending champion Chris Froome, which would lead to an anticlimactic final week of racing, Amaury Sport Organisation (ASO) and particularly Monsieur Christian Prudhomme, as the general director of the Tour de France since 2007, has opted to jam-pack three tough mountain stages in the Pyrenees, and the one and only individual time trial (ITT) for the penultimate stage -- into the final week of racing. In regard to the idea of wanting a suspenseful race by having so many decisive stages in the final week of the Tour, it is quite similar to the 2011 edition, when in the final week three mountain stages led into the penultimate ITT stage, where the winner of the race was decided, actually. To support this view, in terms of legitimate GC wearers of the yellow jersey throughout the race, in each of the last two years there have been only one, while in the 2011 race there were three and the exchanges from initially Tommy Voeckler, then to Andy Schleck, and finally to winner Cadel Evans, occurred in the final week.
Chris Froome:
1st Oman: 1st Stage 5.
6th Catalunya: 5th Stage 3. 7th Stage 4.
1st Romandie: 2nd Stage 3. 1st Stage 5.
12th Crit Dauphine: 1st Stage 1. 1st Stage 2. 7th Stage 7.
He appeared to come out in clinical fashion in his opening race of the season in the Tour of Oman. Then was withdrawn from the Tirreno-Adriatico stage race as a precaution due to joint inflammation in the lower back. Started in the Tour of Catalunya, and in stage 3 he played into the hands of the eventual winner by not attacking prior to the ramp up to La Molina which suited eventual winner Purito Rodriguez. On that final ramp he exhibited an uncomfortable attack with little power and no sustained acceleration, and was soon overtaken before being passed by a number of riders and faded out of contention. Again as a precautionary measure was withdrawn from Liege-Bastogne-Liege with a mild chest infection on the morning of the race.
Finally showed some building form for the Tour in his last two starts, coming out in highly impressive fashion on stage 2 of the Criterium Dauphine with a devastating kick which dislodged all but his closest opponent in Contador. Might have won the race on GC if not for a crash in stage 6, which whilst not serious was certainly a contributing factor to his stunted performances for the two remaining stages.
The defending champion has had a disrupted season and his results show that, and clearly he has had some excuses, however he has shown enough form recently to suggest that he can be very competitive with the GC contenders. Rated highly.
Alberto Contador:
2nd Algarve: 3rd Stage 2. 4th Stage 3. 1st Stage 4.
1st Tirreno-Adria: 4th Stage 1. 1st Stage 4. 1st Stage 5.
2nd Catalunya: 2nd Stage 3. 3rd Stage 4. 6th Stage 5. 7th Stage 7.
1st Basque County: 1st Stage 1. 9th Stage 5. 2nd Stage 6.
2nd Crit Dauphine: 2nd Stage 1. 2nd Stage 2. 4th Stage 7.
Finished in 4th place here in 2013. Has won this race in 2007 and 2009. He is giving every indication this season that he has returned to near career best form. The late withdrawal of team-mate Roman Kreuziger from the team is not ideal, but it shouldn’t hamper his chances of performing very competitively with the GC contenders. Rated to finish better than last year. Commands the upmost respect.
Vincenzo Nibali:
44th San Luis:
17th Dubai:
12th Oman: 3rd Stage 4.
21st Paris-Nice:
5th Romandie: 7th Stage 3.
7th Crit Dauphine: 8th Stage 1. 6th Stage 2. 8th Stage 7.
Multiple Grand Tour winner. Last start in this race was in 2012, when he finished in 3rd place. Has shown recently that he is a little underdone, which suggests that he might be capable of working his way into the race in a developing form approach, and if he is not far from the leaders or indeed if he is alongside them in the final week, he may be a highly dangerous opponent. There have been some unofficial details of a rift in the team between the Kazakh and Italian riders, but one would hope that on the biggest stage in cycling such a potential difficulty for team harmony is not allowed to fester. Watch closely.
Alejandro Valverde:
27th Dubai: 7th Stage 3.
1st Andalucia: 1st Prologue, & Stages 1 & 2.
5th Basque County: 2nd Stage 1. 6th Stage 2. 2nd Stages 4 & 5. 8th stage 6.
2nd Route Sud: 2nd Stage 1. 3rd Stage 2.
Grand Tour winner. Finished in 8th place here in 2013 when he was unfortunate to require a wheel change on a day when crosswinds were buffeting and splitting the peloton apart. This season he has had magnificent one-day classic results with four wins, two podiums, and a 4th place finish. It is worth noting that he apparently didn’t require a hard test of his condition in one of the two lead-in races for the Tour, such as the Tour of Switzerland or the Crtiterium Dauphine, but instead selected a recon of the Pyreneenian stages (which will feature in the final week of the Tour) by riding in the three stage Route of the Sud race. Appears to be coming into this at the right time. One of the main contenders. Treat warily.
Tejay Van Garderen:
2nd Oman: 2nd Stage 5.
3rd Catalunya: 4th Stage 3. 1st Stage 4.
6th Basque County: 9th Stage 6.
13th Crit Dauphine: 9th Stage 1. 6th Stage 8.
Finished in 45th place here in 2013. Patchy form this season. Abandoned Paris-Nice after stage 1 due to a stomach illness. Then abandoned Tour of Romandie after stage 3 due to injuries suffered in a crash in the prologue. Has finally been promoted to captain for the Tour, and gets his chance to improve on his 5th place finish in 2012. Has the ability to reach the podium in this race under this arrangement, but needs to show improvement quickly. Hard to have at this time. Wait to see.
Jurgen Van Den Broeck:
24th San Luis:
16th Oman:
34th Catalunya:
27th Basque County:
3rd Crit Dauphine: 4th Stage 2. 5th Stage 8.
A DNF here in 2013, and a 4th place finish here in 2012. Abandoned Tirreno-Adriatico after Stage 2 due to injuries suffered in a crash. An experienced campaigner who is coming into this on the back of a noteworthy result in his last start. Worthy of some consideration for a podium position.
Richie Porte:
4th Down Under: 6th Stage 2. 1st Stage 5.
2nd Andalucia: 7th Prologue. 4th Stage 1. 5th Stage 2.
22nd Crit Dauphine:
Was a late addition to the team for Tirreno-Adriatico and abandoned after stage 4 due to a stomach illness. Then abandoned the Tour of Catalunya due to same illness. Abandoned the Tour of Romandie, also. Looked a little underdone in Criterium Dauphine, but may improve quickly through some forced, hard riding. Finished in 19th place here in 2013 after providing invaluable support to team-mate Froome. He was supposed to be given his chance to captain SKY in the Giro d’Italia, however circumstances prevented that from happening, and he will now again be riding for Froome here as his most trusted, and likely most diligent, lieutenant. Complicated matter, but not without prospects. Market best guide.
Andrew Talansky:
17th Tirreno-Adria:
7th Catalunya: 8th Stage 3. 6th Stage 4.
11th Romandie: 5th Stage 1.
1st Crit Dauphine: 4th Stage 1. 5th Stages 2 & 7. 4th Stage 8.
Finished in 10th place here in 2013 when on debut. A developing young rider who appears to be finally finding his place at the elite level on the back of his excellent last start result. Worthy of close consideration for a podium position.
Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez:
71st San Luis:
56th Dubai:
4th Oman: 4th Stage 5.
1st Catalunya: 1st Stage 3. 4th Stage 4.
Talented and experienced Grand Tour (GT) veteran who remains winless in 19 GT starts. Finished in 3rd place here in 2013 as a 34yo, his best ever performance, proving that his age is no barrier to performing well at this level. Crashed-out of the Giro d’Italia earlier with extensive injuries, before becoming a late inclusion for the start here. He has indicated that he has no expectation of challenging for the win on GC, but if properly healed from his injuries and with no obvious pressure to perform, he may –- in an ironic twist -- surprise with a strong podium performance at juicy odds. One which may prove rewarding to keep safe. Do not discount lightly.
Rui Costa:
15th Dubai:
3rd Algarve: 2nd Stages 1, 2 & 4.
2nd Paris-Nice: 2nd Stages 6 & 7.
51st Basque County:
3rd Romandie: 7th Stage 1. 3rd Stage 3. 8th Stage 5.
1st Switzerland: 7th Stage 3. 3rd Stage 7. 9th Stage 8. 1st Stage 9.
Reigning World Road Race champion, who smashed “the curse of the Rainbow Jersey” with a third consecutive win in the Tour of Switzerland, last start. Finished in 27th place here in 2013 when sacrificing his chances for then team-mate Valverde. Best result here is 18th in 2012. Not the purest of climbers, he has been reported as saying that he is aiming for a top-10 result as the captain of the team. Market best guide.
Michal Kwiatkowski:
1st Algarve: 1st Stages 2 & 3. 3rd Stage 4.
18th Tirreno-Adria: 1st Stage 1. 2nd Stage 3. 7th Stages 4 & 7.
2nd Basque County: 3rd Stages 1, 2, 3, 5 & 6.
Has performed very well in the one-day classics this season, with two wins, two podiums, and a top-5 finish. Abandonments from the Tour of Romandie after stage 3 and then after stage 6 in the Criterium Dauphine will not help his chances in improving on his 11th place finish here in 2013 when on Tour debut. Exciting young rider from Poland who may require more development and experience in a three week long race with such massive pressure and scrutiny as surrounds the Tour. Hard to have at this time. Others have stronger claims.
Frank Schleck:
31st Down Under:
19th Oman:
34th Paris-Nice: 6th Stage 8.
6th International: 4th Stage 3.
9th Luxembourg: 8th Stage 4.
Abandoned the Tour of the Basque Country after stage 5, and then after a crash on stage 2 of the Tour of Switzerland, most recently. Sat out on the sidelines in 2013 with a doping ban. Came closest to the win here when 3rd in 2011. Not much form to speak about and he is unlikely to make his presence felt amongst the GC contenders. Discount.
Romain Bardet:
13th Oman: 8th Stage 5.
36th Paris-Nice:
4th Catalunya: 9th Stage 3. 2nd Stage 4. 8th Stage 7.
15th Bavaria: 4th Stage 2.
5th Crit Dauphine: 5th Stage 5. 9th Stage 7. 2nd Stage 8.
Finished in 15th place here in 2013 when on GT debut. Another one of the promising young riders who may require more time to develop and gain experience in this pressure-cooker of a race around his native country. Hard to have at this time. Others have stronger claims.
Thibaut Pinot:
13th Catalunya:
9th Basque County:
10th Romandie: 9th Stages 3 & 5.
5th Bavaria: 2nd Stage 2.
15th Switzerland: 8th Stage 3. 9th Stage 7.
Had a slow start to the season with a withdrawal and an abandonment in the Tour of Oman and Tirreno-Adriatico, respectively. Gave every indication that he was a star of the future when he finished 10th here in 2012 as a 22yo. Wait to see.
Pierre Rolland:
80th Mediterranean:
74th Haut Var:
26th Tirreno-Adria:
26th Basque County:
4th Giro d’Italia: 4th Stages 15 & 19. 3rd Stage 16.
Abandoned Tour of Catalunya after stage 6. Finished in 24th place here in 2013. Best finish here was 8th in 2012. It will be interesting to discover if he is one of the very few riders in the history of cycling who responds well to riding GTs back-to-back. Is likely to be focused on hunting stage wins. Wait to see.
Andy Schleck:
72nd Oman:
66th Paris-Nice:
66th Basque Country:
24th Luxembourg:
29th Switzerland:
Abandoned the Criterium International. Finished in 2nd place here in 2009 and 2011. Finished in 20th place here in 2013. Deserves some respect after winning this race in 2010 when Alberto Contador was stripped of his victory, however he has given no indication this season that he is returning to career best form, which is what he would require in order to have a genuine claim on a podium position in Paris, and is therefore unlikely, on the available data, to figure amongst the major selections by the GC contenders. Take on trust.
Bauke Mollema:
6th Andalucia: 2nd Stage 1. 7th Stage 2.
22nd Tirreno-Adria: 9th Stage 1.
28th Basque County: 5th Stage 4.
3rd Norway: 9th Stage 3. 1st Stage 4.
3rd Switzerland: 7th Stage 1. 4th Stage 3. 3rd Stage 8. 2nd Stage 9.
Finished in 6th place here in 2013. Has had a workmanlike season, but gives the impression of being an improving rider. Additionally, will be out to impress due to sponsorship issues hanging over the team, and a likely move to a different team for next season. May be thereabouts for a podium position at big odds. Worthy of close consideration on that basis. Keep safe.
Simon Spilak:
9th Algarve:
8th Paris-Nice:
4th Basque County: 4th Stage 6.
2nd Romandie: 1st Stage 3. 7th Stage 5.
85th Crit Dauphine: 1st Stage 5.
Best finish here was in 2009 when 107th. Discount.
Any other rider: Write your own ticket.
The Points Classification or green jersey has normally been awarded to the best sprinter, and pure outright sprinters such as Mark Cavendish have been the natural recipients of it (2011). However, after Peter Sagan’s appearance on the scene with his expansive characteristics being suited to both sprints and stages with some moderate climbing involved, he has followed a clear pattern of wresting the green jersey from a sprinter or time trialist after the opening couple of stages and then holding it quite securely for the duration of the race. His short-priced favouritism and commanding position in the market reflects the increased amount of opportunities for claiming sprint points, due to his ability of distancing the pure sprinters when the road begins to rise in gradient.
The Teams Classification (TC) is a highly prestigious team prize since teams use it for promotional purposes. It is calculated by adding the times of each team’s three best riders per stage. The GC winner’s team doesn’t necessarily win the TC as riders devoted to their captain, by setting a strong pace for him or protecting his place in the peloton, often work so hard that they can fall right off the pace on a climb and finish way back on time. A team with a strong list of consistent and evenly-matched climbers not being flogged for their captain are much better suited to win this race within the race.
The Mountains Classification (MC) or polka dot jersey is rarely won by the winner of the yellow jersey as it's more suited to a stage-hunting climber who gets into long-range breakaways on mountain stages or stages which offer MC points. Since France hasn't had the opportunity to celebrate their own home-grown champion of the race for so many years, they are resolved to celebrate lesser results, and clearly they enjoy to see a Frenchman forging a long-range attack on a mountain stage. Thomas Voeckler seems to have made a career out of such attacks and he did win this jersey in 2012, giving the French fans the opportunity to admire his characteristics in themselves; however with Voeckler's intensity now waning on the climbs, the likes of Pierre Rolland and Thibaut Pinot appear to be suitable candidates for French admiration of such heroic efforts in the mountains.
Good luck to all,
SP
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Hi swinging great write up as usual ,why is Quintana not riding for Movista ,after watching him last year thought looked a future tour winner ,I dont know too much about cycling but i try to watch as much of Le Tour every year as i can ,I see he won the
Giro, seems a strange decision to go with Valverde ahead of him ...
Giro, seems a strange decision to go with Valverde ahead of him ...
another progressive rider looks to be
Mathais Frank
he is untested as a GC contender over a 3 week Grand Tour. Moved from BMC to IAM at the end of last year to lead the team. After a slow start to the year he has progressed well. He won the Queen stage and finished 2nd at the Criterium International, 4th in the Tour De Romandie, won the Queen stage and again finished 2nd at the Bayern Rundfahrt before finished 2nd overall at the Tour De Suisse.
He will lose time in the time trial but is one to keep on the right side of.
Outright price ranges from 100/1 - 500/1
Mathais Frank
he is untested as a GC contender over a 3 week Grand Tour. Moved from BMC to IAM at the end of last year to lead the team. After a slow start to the year he has progressed well. He won the Queen stage and finished 2nd at the Criterium International, 4th in the Tour De Romandie, won the Queen stage and again finished 2nd at the Bayern Rundfahrt before finished 2nd overall at the Tour De Suisse.
He will lose time in the time trial but is one to keep on the right side of.
Outright price ranges from 100/1 - 500/1
Hey case, I think you know enough about cycling to have considered him a future Tour winner.
The obvious answer is that they are being careful with him, and that's true. The GM of Movistar is Unzue, and he is a very smart man with lots of experience. Quintana is a young man and Movistar want a future Tour winner, yes, but they also want him to fulfill his potential as a rider, and when you prize something you treat it carefully with the long-term outlook, not for any short term gain, and Unzue is serious about his job. Quintana is someone special, Unzue recognizes this and is allowing him to take steps for the long-term, which means less pressure than what the Tour provides and developing his skills, slowly but surely. And Quintana is a smart young man also, he sees how he is being treated and knows that such treatment is much better for him than the big money another team would throw at him to switch teams. Family over money if you will.
Also, last year some confusion came into the team after Valverde missed-out in that crosswinds stage, and I think Unzue owes Valverde a proper, fully committed team to get his chance at glory. So a combination of factors exist, but of course riding and winning back-to-back GTs is quite rare, and after Quintana rode in the Giro, there was no way he would be riding here. By having had Quintana ride the Giro, it opened the opportunity to give Valverde his crack at the Tour, but it also proved that Quintana can win a GT this early in his career, without the intense scrutiny and pressure which comes with the Tour. Everybody wins.
Contador at only 25 yo was the last rider, in 2008, to win two GTs in the one year, and that's something which it would appear Quintana might attempt, if he rides the Vuelta later. Contador won the Tour the year before, something which Quintana came close to doing. So guess what GT Quintana will be riding in 2015 if he rides the Vuelta and performs well?
On the issue of Valverde, and I have been backing him since he was in the 50s, what excites me is what I've included in the guide on him: He has had a great season in the classics. Moreover, there has been a clear Tour objective, no conflicts, no last minute issues, no opportunity for anything to get in the way of the plan, which has meant a good rest after LBL, some good preparation including the recon, and now a devoted team on a parcours which suits him more than it would Quintana, who would prefer all three-weeks in the Alps.
Thanks for the question mate,
SP
The obvious answer is that they are being careful with him, and that's true. The GM of Movistar is Unzue, and he is a very smart man with lots of experience. Quintana is a young man and Movistar want a future Tour winner, yes, but they also want him to fulfill his potential as a rider, and when you prize something you treat it carefully with the long-term outlook, not for any short term gain, and Unzue is serious about his job. Quintana is someone special, Unzue recognizes this and is allowing him to take steps for the long-term, which means less pressure than what the Tour provides and developing his skills, slowly but surely. And Quintana is a smart young man also, he sees how he is being treated and knows that such treatment is much better for him than the big money another team would throw at him to switch teams. Family over money if you will.
Also, last year some confusion came into the team after Valverde missed-out in that crosswinds stage, and I think Unzue owes Valverde a proper, fully committed team to get his chance at glory. So a combination of factors exist, but of course riding and winning back-to-back GTs is quite rare, and after Quintana rode in the Giro, there was no way he would be riding here. By having had Quintana ride the Giro, it opened the opportunity to give Valverde his crack at the Tour, but it also proved that Quintana can win a GT this early in his career, without the intense scrutiny and pressure which comes with the Tour. Everybody wins.
Contador at only 25 yo was the last rider, in 2008, to win two GTs in the one year, and that's something which it would appear Quintana might attempt, if he rides the Vuelta later. Contador won the Tour the year before, something which Quintana came close to doing. So guess what GT Quintana will be riding in 2015 if he rides the Vuelta and performs well?
On the issue of Valverde, and I have been backing him since he was in the 50s, what excites me is what I've included in the guide on him: He has had a great season in the classics. Moreover, there has been a clear Tour objective, no conflicts, no last minute issues, no opportunity for anything to get in the way of the plan, which has meant a good rest after LBL, some good preparation including the recon, and now a devoted team on a parcours which suits him more than it would Quintana, who would prefer all three-weeks in the Alps.
Thanks for the question mate,
SP
I think that's an interesting distinction you make CM. Some riders respond really positively to a committed team behind the rider's role of captain. It turns something on in them, and they just set down into the task with relish. Frank is up in class though, and I would discount him on that basis alone, however the parcours suits him more than if there was a number of big stages in the Alps. Nevertheless, Rui Costa gets the same chance as Frank to ride as captain, and in a better team, and not only did he beat Frank well in Switzerland, he is a proven stage winner over hilly stages in the Tour. Maybe a trade for some, but I can't have him. SP
ITV4 are showing the team presentation now. Looking forward to a great three weeks.
Bertie wins and should be fav.....he says he is better shape going into this race than any other grand tour....curtains for the rest
Love a bit of Mathias Frank but I don't think he's consistent to be up there at the end of three week tours. I have him in the same category as Leopold Konig but really hope they both do well. I can see them challenging for stage wins and staying with the favourites for the most part but having off days.
Edet backed for polka dots. Triple figures.
bon chance etc
bon chance etc
Not three figures anymore, but even 80/1 seems good value for a rider who won the Mountains Jersey in the Vuelta last year. Thanks V, I'll take that! SP
CJ70 i like Konig too and will be looking to back him for appropriate stages later in the tour
Thanks swinging All makes sense now 
I like Valverde ,g luck with ur bets
I like Valverde ,g luck with ur bets
Cracking write up SP! 
I am anti-Froome for this. Not because I don't like him but because I'm not convinced about his form the strength of the team or the parcours. I also think Froome can be a bit dodgy mentally, and wouldn't be surprised to see him buckle under the pressure Astana, Movistar and Tinkoff will apply. I would have Bertie as favourite, but think Nibali and Valverde will be big players.
I am anti-Froome for this. Not because I don't like him but because I'm not convinced about his form the strength of the team or the parcours. I also think Froome can be a bit dodgy mentally, and wouldn't be surprised to see him buckle under the pressure Astana, Movistar and Tinkoff will apply. I would have Bertie as favourite, but think Nibali and Valverde will be big players.
No worries case, hope you have a good Tour also, mate. Thanks MC, I think I like the form guide approach the most, on account of it being more open and therefore more accessible for the reader making their selection.
MC -- I'm not getting involved in any big way, beyond my early positions, till after the pave stage. Definitely agree that Bertie is still good value after some good moves on him in the Dauphine. Just nibbling on small bids above 2/1, since there's still plenty of movement in so far as you say (and I agree) he should be favourite. I haven't made my decision on Froome, I've brought him back to field red, and will continue to buy some time with him, but am not convinced by your assertion that his mental strength is suspect. Would need more convincing on that? A lot will rest on SKY team's performance, again, especially if Porte can repeat his strong riding of last year, but it was a promising ride from Nieve in Dauphine and if he can take the burden off Porte some, then they might become the finely-drilled machine we have come to expect from them in the past, and that might be enough to say: advantage Froome. Will be surprised to see AST piling on any pressure, and TCS will miss Kreuziger to some extent. MOV might be imposing, their tactics in the Giro show that it is still part of their culture to start bar-room brawls, but they will have a different dynamic to the Giro team here which might be more suited to sending out forward scouts for Valverde.
I think we're pretty close here so far.
Cheers,
SP
MC -- I'm not getting involved in any big way, beyond my early positions, till after the pave stage. Definitely agree that Bertie is still good value after some good moves on him in the Dauphine. Just nibbling on small bids above 2/1, since there's still plenty of movement in so far as you say (and I agree) he should be favourite. I haven't made my decision on Froome, I've brought him back to field red, and will continue to buy some time with him, but am not convinced by your assertion that his mental strength is suspect. Would need more convincing on that? A lot will rest on SKY team's performance, again, especially if Porte can repeat his strong riding of last year, but it was a promising ride from Nieve in Dauphine and if he can take the burden off Porte some, then they might become the finely-drilled machine we have come to expect from them in the past, and that might be enough to say: advantage Froome. Will be surprised to see AST piling on any pressure, and TCS will miss Kreuziger to some extent. MOV might be imposing, their tactics in the Giro show that it is still part of their culture to start bar-room brawls, but they will have a different dynamic to the Giro team here which might be more suited to sending out forward scouts for Valverde.
I think we're pretty close here so far.
Cheers,
SP
By book is looking excellent now, lovely green all over, with much bigger greens on Valverde and Nibali
Thing in, how's Contador (or anyone else) going to make up 2-3 minutes. Not in the time trial. In the mountains? Doubt it, Astana look ridiculously strong.
This is a wonderful parcours, we've seen some amazing action so far
After Tirreno I think we know what is coming if it needs to.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DBGwIyUxtpE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DBGwIyUxtpE
marychain1 09 Jul 14 14:46
There you go, mental weakness
I just can't believe you said that actually, MC. SP
There you go, mental weakness
I just can't believe you said that actually, MC. SP
It was a bit tongue-in-cheek but then not completely.
The thing is with Froome I've always thought he lacks the clarity of thought of a top level competitor. I know he's won a lot of very good races but I've always thought he can be a bit flaky when pressed and stressed.
He just seems to make bad decisions when under pressure. Think of him attacking his own team leader in 2012, think of him attacking from miles out in Romandie when Spilak won the stage into Aigle. Then there's the crashes. I know a lot of them aren't his fault, but his riding style where he looks down at the floor instead of in front of him predisposes him to crashes in my opinion. I also think he just looks mentally brittle at times. He won the Tour in 2013 but was pressured at times by Quintana riding only his second Grand Tour. This year the competition was always much stronger, and he looked like he was feeling the pinch. To be honest, it looked to me like Contador had got in his head in the Dauphine.
The fact that Froome was also so clearly insecure about having Wiggins in his team also points to someone that was not confident of his own chances of winning.
Admittedly, none of these things alone are much to go on, but the whole picture when put together did not assure me that Froome should be odds on or close to it.
Also, the cobbles were always looming as a massive issue for him. He didn't even get to them, but even without the injuries from yesterday and the earlier crashes I think Froome would have lost at least as much time as Contador today, and I was dead against him right from the start.
The thing is with Froome I've always thought he lacks the clarity of thought of a top level competitor. I know he's won a lot of very good races but I've always thought he can be a bit flaky when pressed and stressed.
He just seems to make bad decisions when under pressure. Think of him attacking his own team leader in 2012, think of him attacking from miles out in Romandie when Spilak won the stage into Aigle. Then there's the crashes. I know a lot of them aren't his fault, but his riding style where he looks down at the floor instead of in front of him predisposes him to crashes in my opinion. I also think he just looks mentally brittle at times. He won the Tour in 2013 but was pressured at times by Quintana riding only his second Grand Tour. This year the competition was always much stronger, and he looked like he was feeling the pinch. To be honest, it looked to me like Contador had got in his head in the Dauphine.
The fact that Froome was also so clearly insecure about having Wiggins in his team also points to someone that was not confident of his own chances of winning.
Admittedly, none of these things alone are much to go on, but the whole picture when put together did not assure me that Froome should be odds on or close to it.
Also, the cobbles were always looming as a massive issue for him. He didn't even get to them, but even without the injuries from yesterday and the earlier crashes I think Froome would have lost at least as much time as Contador today, and I was dead against him right from the start.
That's why you need Bertie on your side.... EPO, blood transfusions... plus whatever new schemes they have to prevent detection
So let me guess this right: Knowing that I was open to being convinced by your assertion, you bring this up now just to make you point, when the crashes had everything to do with his wrist and not mental weakness? Pathetic! SP
It's just further expansion of the point I made before the Tour that I was against Froome. Is it really necessary to resort to calling me pathetic?!
I thought you were on Bertie anyway, not Froome?
marychain1
01 Jul 14 20:48
Nibali and Valverde are the two that interest me, but I've already got Van Garderen on board and might go in again at 66/1. I would have Bertie as favourite, but think Nibali and Valverde will be big players.
marychain1 05 Jul 14 16:21 Joined: 05 Apr 05 | Topic/replies: 23,321 | Blogger: marychain1's blog
Cracking write up SP!
I am anti-Froome for this. Not because I don't like him but because I'm not convinced about his form the strength of the team or the parcours. I also think Froome can be a bit dodgy mentally
I thought you were on Bertie anyway, not Froome?
marychain1
01 Jul 14 20:48
Nibali and Valverde are the two that interest me, but I've already got Van Garderen on board and might go in again at 66/1. I would have Bertie as favourite, but think Nibali and Valverde will be big players.
marychain1 05 Jul 14 16:21 Joined: 05 Apr 05 | Topic/replies: 23,321 | Blogger: marychain1's blog
Cracking write up SP!
I am anti-Froome for this. Not because I don't like him but because I'm not convinced about his form the strength of the team or the parcours. I also think Froome can be a bit dodgy mentally
I believe I've made my positions quite clear MC, so you'll forgive me if I don't go around advertising my satisfaction from the misfortune of others, and worse misrepresenting the matter by tailoring it to suit an earlier theory, because it'd just be poor form, yes pathetic actually. SP
I don't really understand your anger and I'm sorry if I have caused you offence in some way because that wasn't my intention.
I acknowledge your apology but it wasn't necessary, I'm not angry and I'm not offended, I just don't appreciate unfairness. I just pity you that you decided to link the two issues in question, and that you had to do so after the fact. I recall you said that this forum is best when it's about US versus the Books, yet on this occasion you decided to only support your theory on Froome's mental weakness after the fact, and did so by linking two unrelated matters since his crashes had nothing to do with his mental approach but a wrist injury. I didn't understand the need for it, and don't, and moreover I fail to see how showing pity is being angry?
I mean you provided half-a-dozen paragraphs, yet there was nothing when I stated the following: am not convinced by your assertion that his mental strength is suspect. Would need more convincing on that?
Why you chose to convince me after the fact, and not before, suggests that it was more about proving a point than expanding a discussion for others to read and draw their own conclusions.
Cheers,
SP
I mean you provided half-a-dozen paragraphs, yet there was nothing when I stated the following: am not convinced by your assertion that his mental strength is suspect. Would need more convincing on that?
Why you chose to convince me after the fact, and not before, suggests that it was more about proving a point than expanding a discussion for others to read and draw their own conclusions.
Cheers,
SP
The insight and analysis on this thread is excellent.
The tour is wide open, with a handful of contendors in with a serious shout. Would be brilliant if this thread could put differences aside and continue with the analysis/discussion of the tour winner.
We're in for a cracking couple of weeks!
The tour is wide open, with a handful of contendors in with a serious shout. Would be brilliant if this thread could put differences aside and continue with the analysis/discussion of the tour winner.
We're in for a cracking couple of weeks!
The reason I didn't expand on the point further then is just because I have not had time to contribute anywhere near as much as I would like on the forum this month. I've been snowed under at work, had a family medical situation that has required a huge amount of time and I'm also training for the Etape du Tour in a few days time.
Is this really a two horse race between contador and nibali? I can't help but think there is a little each way value in the likes of porte and talansky. Going to be a hell of an effort from nibali and astana to keep the yellow from the second stage all the way to paris.
Talansky tweeted hes alright after crash
poor Matthias Frank out with a fractured leg
Porte is 3rd favourite for the outright which seems ridiculously short, I can not see any scenario where he finishes on the podium, looking at his palmares ok he has won Paris -Nice but his best Grand Tour finish is 7th in 2010 Giro. Sky seem to be talking up his chances but i think they are trying to save face on what has been a season of complete disaster for the team
Porte is 3rd favourite for the outright which seems ridiculously short, I can not see any scenario where he finishes on the podium, looking at his palmares ok he has won Paris -Nice but his best Grand Tour finish is 7th in 2010 Giro. Sky seem to be talking up his chances but i think they are trying to save face on what has been a season of complete disaster for the team
Shame about Frank thought he looked strong today, presume he was involved in the crash at the end?
Nibali has proven in the past that he is a cool customer when it comes to leading a GT for a long way. In his 2013 Giro win, his favourite GT event, he was 5secs behind Benat Intxausti when in 2nd place after stage 7, and then from stage 8 he took and held the lead all the way into Brescia, increasing it consistently when racing against inferior opposition in a weather-affected race. He had one stumble when he failed to back-up the mountain stage 14 for the very next mountain stage 15 start, however his opponents failed to take advantage and his lead remained intact.
As MC has said on a different thread, Nibali is a smart rider and I think with such a big lead it'll be very hard for his opponents to dislodge him from the top of the GC. He has good experience and knows that he doesn't have to do much to win this race now, however riding to protect a lead has the potential to blow-up in his face, and whilst Valverde and Contador won't likely make the same mistake the other riders did in the 2013 Giro when Nibali was exposed a little on that mountain stage -- they will have to ride exceptionally well, and they may have to conspire together to find Nibali's weaknesses.
I am being consistent with the following view after closely following Valverde's season and particularly his build-up for the Tour in riding the Route de Sud as his key preparation and recon, but I think Valverde can have a very strong 3rd week in the Pyrenees where he can still win this race, and whilst he has shortened significantly from the 50s at ante-post when best priced, I have decided to take out half of my investment at this time, as an insurance policy for Nibali's commanding position in the race.
As most of us realize, these first mid-mountain stages in the Vosges will reveal a lot, and whilst a Nibali win looks strong at this time, there is a good list of riders behind who can work together to chip away at Nibali's lead and find a way to come back on even terms. SP
As MC has said on a different thread, Nibali is a smart rider and I think with such a big lead it'll be very hard for his opponents to dislodge him from the top of the GC. He has good experience and knows that he doesn't have to do much to win this race now, however riding to protect a lead has the potential to blow-up in his face, and whilst Valverde and Contador won't likely make the same mistake the other riders did in the 2013 Giro when Nibali was exposed a little on that mountain stage -- they will have to ride exceptionally well, and they may have to conspire together to find Nibali's weaknesses.
I am being consistent with the following view after closely following Valverde's season and particularly his build-up for the Tour in riding the Route de Sud as his key preparation and recon, but I think Valverde can have a very strong 3rd week in the Pyrenees where he can still win this race, and whilst he has shortened significantly from the 50s at ante-post when best priced, I have decided to take out half of my investment at this time, as an insurance policy for Nibali's commanding position in the race.
As most of us realize, these first mid-mountain stages in the Vosges will reveal a lot, and whilst a Nibali win looks strong at this time, there is a good list of riders behind who can work together to chip away at Nibali's lead and find a way to come back on even terms. SP
Hi all,
Nice to see a thread on the great race........cheers SP.
Had a nice bet on Nibali ages ago,and could not have wished for a better start.
Still a shame though about Froome as far as race is concerned,but still plenty of other contenders.
Just had this feeling that Nibali was saving himself earlier in season for this race,and to me he looks as strong as he ever has right now,and get the feeling his team are very confident.
Contador is his main threat of course but I actually think Nibali will out climb him in the high mountains. Main problemM that I see is the Time Trial,and of course accidents.
Be interested in others opinions on the mountains and the TT, as far as Nibali staying in Yellow is concerned.
Cheers.
Nice to see a thread on the great race........cheers SP.
Had a nice bet on Nibali ages ago,and could not have wished for a better start.
Still a shame though about Froome as far as race is concerned,but still plenty of other contenders.
Just had this feeling that Nibali was saving himself earlier in season for this race,and to me he looks as strong as he ever has right now,and get the feeling his team are very confident.
Contador is his main threat of course but I actually think Nibali will out climb him in the high mountains. Main problemM that I see is the Time Trial,and of course accidents.
Be interested in others opinions on the mountains and the TT, as far as Nibali staying in Yellow is concerned.
Cheers.
Cheers budd, I agree with MC in that Nibali is unlikely to lose much time in the ITT if any. Nibali is pretty rock solid in the discipline and even if a GC contender has a better ride than him, it'll likely only be by a handful of seconds. I think you could include a puncture for that kind of time difference.
Nibali looked very comfortable on Bertie's wheel on the final climb of stage 8, and unless Bertie brings his Crit Dauphine game into play, and/or Valverde smashes the climbs in the Pyrenees, Nibali will roll into Paris quite comfortably, at the moment. I mean, it's still early but I could not find any evidence of a plan by the other teams to put Nibali under pressure. Sure TCS looked good on the front, but that just prevented Nibali from attacking, not dropping him. Moreover, when it was quite clear what AST were doing prior to the day's climbing by allowing the gap to blow-out to an insane amount, none of the other teams seemed to notice until it was too late. It was amateur hour, no wonder Vino couldn't get the smile off his face when the camera came alongside his car window. And the thing was that it wasn't even a sign of weakness by AST/Nibali -- why work hard when you don't have to, since there is still so much hard work to do? Smart riding by AST and poor strategy by the others. Advantage Nibali.
Cheers,
SP
Nibali looked very comfortable on Bertie's wheel on the final climb of stage 8, and unless Bertie brings his Crit Dauphine game into play, and/or Valverde smashes the climbs in the Pyrenees, Nibali will roll into Paris quite comfortably, at the moment. I mean, it's still early but I could not find any evidence of a plan by the other teams to put Nibali under pressure. Sure TCS looked good on the front, but that just prevented Nibali from attacking, not dropping him. Moreover, when it was quite clear what AST were doing prior to the day's climbing by allowing the gap to blow-out to an insane amount, none of the other teams seemed to notice until it was too late. It was amateur hour, no wonder Vino couldn't get the smile off his face when the camera came alongside his car window. And the thing was that it wasn't even a sign of weakness by AST/Nibali -- why work hard when you don't have to, since there is still so much hard work to do? Smart riding by AST and poor strategy by the others. Advantage Nibali.
Cheers,
SP
Thanks SP
Yeh it seemed to me watching yesterday that Astana were thinking about the climbs ahead,saving themselves,and maybe less worried about helping Nibali?? he was always going to cope fine with Tinkoff on that kind of stage imo. They will be needed a lot more in the big hills.
After watching that yesterday I am pretty confident that Nibali wont lose much time on Contador in the high mountains,certainly not enough to threaten GC,and some of the other contenders were a tad disappointing I thought.
Maybe the start of this tour is already taking its toll on some of the GC boys,its been a pretty tough week.
Reason I mentioned the TT was a mate of mine saying he weren't the best at trialling.
Still if you and MC say hes not likely to lose time,thats made me feel a lot better.
Been a great race so far,love it.
Yeh it seemed to me watching yesterday that Astana were thinking about the climbs ahead,saving themselves,and maybe less worried about helping Nibali?? he was always going to cope fine with Tinkoff on that kind of stage imo. They will be needed a lot more in the big hills.
After watching that yesterday I am pretty confident that Nibali wont lose much time on Contador in the high mountains,certainly not enough to threaten GC,and some of the other contenders were a tad disappointing I thought.
Maybe the start of this tour is already taking its toll on some of the GC boys,its been a pretty tough week.
Reason I mentioned the TT was a mate of mine saying he weren't the best at trialling.
Still if you and MC say hes not likely to lose time,thats made me feel a lot better.
Been a great race so far,love it.
why has contador shortened quite a bit now 2.06 from about 2.7 after stage 5 ?
Oleg Tinkov’s words in the media might have additionally fuelled some of that excitement.
AST smart-riding on stage 9, giving the yellow jersey away.
The virtual GC is as follows:
Cheers,
SP
AST smart-riding on stage 9, giving the yellow jersey away.
The virtual GC is as follows:
| Nibali | VIRTUAL |
| Porte | + 1.58 |
| Kwiatkowski | + 2.26 |
| Valverde | + 2.27 |
| Rolland | + 2.33 |
| Contador | + 2.34 |
| Bardet | + 2.39 |
Cheers,
SP
done and dusted unless Scarponi guides Nibali into the gutter
| Nibali | @Virtual | @Restday |
| Porte | +1.58 | +2.23 |
| Valverde | +2.27 | +2.47 |
| Bardet | +2.39 | +3.01 |
Even should Scarponi guide Nibali into the gutter, he'll get up, dust himself off, get back to the front, and finish hard with such a lead. However, I'm not prepared to lay all my Valverde 50s at ante-post just yet though, he can still make it interesting in the Pyrenees, and a crosswinds stage down into Nimes and/or Bergerac could throw up a surprise or two. SP
Same here. I've got Nibali onside, Valverde is my biggest green and TJVG each way so I'm sitting tight.
Valverde is happy with 2nd or 3rd.....can't see him doing anything other than defending that position.
I'm laying Porte for Top 3 as he always has one shocker on a grand tour where he losses heaps of time. That day is still to come!!!
I'm laying Porte for Top 3 as he always has one shocker on a grand tour where he losses heaps of time. That day is still to come!!!
Agree re Valverde and have had a saver on him,as I have nice odds on Nibali.
Had a couple of other small savers on riders at big odds as well.
Only Porte can stop me making a nice profit on the race and I cannot touch him at the prices,dont think he will beat Valverde anyway let alone Nibali.
Mind you the way the race is going he may be the only contender left going into Paris!!
Had a couple of other small savers on riders at big odds as well.
Only Porte can stop me making a nice profit on the race and I cannot touch him at the prices,dont think he will beat Valverde anyway let alone Nibali.
Mind you the way the race is going he may be the only contender left going into Paris!!
Can't see Valverde beating Nibali with his TT weakness, will need a Nibali crash (unlikely) and a day off from Porte in the mountains (possible) to beat them
Porte has a great advantage, the TT. He can easily put 1min+ on Valverde there. Valverde has to make time on mountains, but wont be easy to take more than 1min, unless Porte has a really bad day (wich isnt unusual from him)
Yeh see what you say lads, I just have a feeling valverde will make time on Porte in the high mountains to come,whether it will be enough to get the time he needs I aint sure,but I would not be surprised if he did become Nibali's main threat.
Put it this way,i expect Valverde to be ahead of Porte by the time the TT comes along,just a case of will it be far enough.
very average racing
in what is the worst edition of the tour in living memory
in what is the worst edition of the tour in living memory
^^
the start in the UK was good. they should of done the whole race there
the start in the UK was good. they should of done the whole race there
this race is over and was so after stage 5
yellow, green and polka dot jerseys all sewn up
yellow, green and polka dot jerseys all sewn up
Laying Porte for top 3 is like taking candy from a baby 
he does this every grand tour....always has a shocking day
he does this every grand tour....always has a shocking day
don't think it's a shocking day only this time, simply a lack of form and stamina in the high mountains as the season didn't go to plan
Porte was always a shocking price imo,too many people wrapped up in Sky!!
How he was 2nd fav is beyond me,but happy he was!!
Yellow done and dusted bar illness or accident, but we could still have some fun for the podium.
Quiet clear that Nibali was saving himself for this tour,and to be honest I think Froome and Contador would have struggled to hold him in this form.......sadly we will never know.
Hope they all make it next year fit and in form,and add Quintana and we could well have the best race ever!!
How he was 2nd fav is beyond me,but happy he was!!
Yellow done and dusted bar illness or accident, but we could still have some fun for the podium.
Quiet clear that Nibali was saving himself for this tour,and to be honest I think Froome and Contador would have struggled to hold him in this form.......sadly we will never know.
Hope they all make it next year fit and in form,and add Quintana and we could well have the best race ever!!
Mountains category could be interesting.Rodriguez looks a bit short after yesterday to me.
Some nice prices outside the top 2,any thoughts??
Some nice prices outside the top 2,any thoughts??
A race around France with all the fancied riders present and accounted for, imagine that!
I think you were spot on with the MC budd, looked way too short with the data now added and prices adjusted in retrospect. I haven't really been involved beyond an initial bet on Edet at ante-post by way of a forum suggestion.
Majka might be TCS's big winner if he continues like this, since a jersey is a big prize for them in Paris, in terms of constructing a narrative around their team qualities in the face of the disruptive Contador event, earlier. So, you'd have to expect them to recalibrate if you will, and offer good support for Majka coming into the Pyrenees to control this battle for the MC. For him to finish with a win and a 2nd in two tough climbing stages back-to-back, makes for a very strong understanding of his form. The only thing is that he might have hit the top of his form right now, and all the hard riding catches up to him in the Pyrenees, since he has ridden the Giro prior to starting in England for this. This would require more work to solve, at this time.
Cheers,
SP
I think you were spot on with the MC budd, looked way too short with the data now added and prices adjusted in retrospect. I haven't really been involved beyond an initial bet on Edet at ante-post by way of a forum suggestion.
Majka might be TCS's big winner if he continues like this, since a jersey is a big prize for them in Paris, in terms of constructing a narrative around their team qualities in the face of the disruptive Contador event, earlier. So, you'd have to expect them to recalibrate if you will, and offer good support for Majka coming into the Pyrenees to control this battle for the MC. For him to finish with a win and a 2nd in two tough climbing stages back-to-back, makes for a very strong understanding of his form. The only thing is that he might have hit the top of his form right now, and all the hard riding catches up to him in the Pyrenees, since he has ridden the Giro prior to starting in England for this. This would require more work to solve, at this time.
Cheers,
SP
3 things I like in this Tour
1. Nibali trying to Show he would have been a match for Froome and AC
2. the interesting battle for pos 2-6
3. the KOM won by a rider who is able to mix it with the best climbers of the race
1. Nibali trying to Show he would have been a match for Froome and AC
2. the interesting battle for pos 2-6
3. the KOM won by a rider who is able to mix it with the best climbers of the race
Fully on-board with your 3 likes, bb. Having said that it's certainly been an unusual race, and I didn't like that the Alps seemed like they were regarded as a passing thought, I think the Alps should always be a big feature in the race and they weren't for this edition. The start in England was fantastic, I'm not sure we'll ever see crowds like that again unless for another Grand Depart in England. The classics-style stages throughout the Tour were really entertaining, also.
In relation to Uran, it's all still speculation at this time I think, but the Vuelta would've always been the target after his Giro ride. If he starts in the Race of Friendship in August, then it might look like he'll be on-course for the Vuelta. SP
In relation to Uran, it's all still speculation at this time I think, but the Vuelta would've always been the target after his Giro ride. If he starts in the Race of Friendship in August, then it might look like he'll be on-course for the Vuelta. SP
Well Nibali certainly showed for me he would have been a match for Froome and Contador,and to be honest I thought he would be anyway.
Just wish we could have seen it. Although I maybe would not have won money!!!.....who knows.
Hes a worthy winner, no doubt in my mind,hes smashed them, but at the same time I am pretty sure Froome and Contador in form would have done the same.
Sometimes in sport the best are not always there to compete for various reasons,and we just have to give praise to the winner. Better that than get wrapped up in- well he would not have won if so and so were there etc etc.
Hopefully next season we will get to see the top top riders compete in the same tour,all in form.
Well we can all hope!!
Just wish we could have seen it. Although I maybe would not have won money!!!.....who knows.
Hes a worthy winner, no doubt in my mind,hes smashed them, but at the same time I am pretty sure Froome and Contador in form would have done the same.
Sometimes in sport the best are not always there to compete for various reasons,and we just have to give praise to the winner. Better that than get wrapped up in- well he would not have won if so and so were there etc etc.
Hopefully next season we will get to see the top top riders compete in the same tour,all in form.
Well we can all hope!!
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