I expect you have done well too VV

Sadly I need a couple of wickets. Having held on since yesterday I got spooked out of my draw before Aus declared and forgot to cancel my drip lays, so I'm a little draw red now but at least I cleared my Aus red.

If I hadn't been trading with "scared money" I'd have let the position ride and be doing quite well. Lack of sleep really messes with your judgement though. I had to be away overnight with waiting bets so I got home at 7am to a massive SL and big draw position, but rather a large Aus red. After waking uo just in time to trade WI vs Eng and trade that several times into a frustratingly close to decently profitable position that kept slipping away again, I wasn't comfortable relying on SL not to collapse in a heap from ball #1 in this match.

Now I feel obliged to back Aus at these odds, much as I hate odds-on bets in Tests.

Jucel planted the seed in my head about draw possibilities here very early in this thread while I was sticking 1k on Aus at 1.16

A cynic might say Lanka are trying their best to lose a wicket.

I did worse than your 1.16 - I never open a new position at those kind of odds but my Aus red was too large and the draw just wasn't budging so I covered at 1.09 intending to trade in and out at 1.08/1.09 but the market shot out when they declared. This has quickly turned into a nightmare for me. I even sold my massive SL green in the 70s so I have nowt else to trade with.

First time in ages where I had to be away for a whole day of a Test match - not to be recommended. Somehow I didn't risk leaving more resting bets on the draw like I thought, so I missed the 30s. Or maybe I forgot to set them as Keep Bets. Most of my draw green was bought around 10 and 10.5 so tuning in to 13.5/14 was already unsettling. This would have been a good match not to mess up. It doesn't help that I haven't had a decent win in ages and several weather-ruined losses.

Could be a game changer that .....18 wickets needed now!

I'm audio only so have not seen exactly what happened

Jim Maxwell's tone makes me think he is at deaths door

undone it all now

that was a decent ball, just straightened

Completely random! Just depends how I feel about a price.
Trying to rebuild my bank at the moment so my stakes are limited

This has gone, that incident has cost me about £400.....not money lost but money not won.

Obviously I'm glad he's OK

yeh it shook up the Lankans, the Aussies don't give a sh1t, just went for the kill

Think he's ok but doctors will play it safe and he won't bat again in this match

Full Kelly gives you the fastest growth rate if you can bear the variance, but half-Kelly and quarter Kelly are somewhat easier on the psyche. It's like working commission-only versus basic plus commission.  The former often pays better on average (if you're good) but it's a lot harder on the ear for a married guy. Besides, I don't see why you can't do a selective full Kelly where you simply avoid odds below a certain level. An edge is an edge but a full bank will increase in value twice as fast as a half-bank over the same series of Kelly bets so why risk a half-bank on one bet at short odds for that small edge if you could set yourself back a full time-span if it goes belly-up? What do you do when it loses but Kelly tells you to bet half your remaining bank on the next short-odds shot?

If you did nothing but small bets that averaged an r% gain over a typical month then you could use the "rule of 72" to work out how many months it should take to double your bank, being roughly n = 72/r,  hence 5%, 10% and 20% average monthly returns equate to respectively about 14, 7 and 4 months to double. It's not as useful as a guide if your bank varies widely, of course.

I just worked out, albeit in a back-of-an-envelope way, that if you did a risky 10% average return but lost half your bank after 4 months the total time to double your original bank would be 14 months, similar to if you'd used the "safer" 5% route. Mmmm. That's food for thought, methinx.

VV, as you say, full Kelly isn’t always good for the psyche, but that’s only when you lose and our native loss aversion makes it easier to be anxious about losses than about missing out on wins. None of us, me included, beat ourselves up that much for not hitting an excellent bet as hard as we should have done and then going green at poor odds but that could easily be a bigger “loss” than many an actual loss that upsets up, when the loss was value and should just have been filed under “that’s why they call it gambling”, which is a phrase I find helpful often.

On the other hand I notice there is a big bash double header so maybe I should shut down grab a decent nights sleep and  trade the T20s instead *DECISIONS*