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***South Africa v Australia*** 4th Test

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Replies: 738
By:
Cardinal Scott
When: 30 Mar 18 09:56

Mar 30, 2018 -- 9:46AM, detraveller wrote:


Am I correct in thinking there is hardly any downside to laying SA at 1.5? With the good start they have drifted from 1.44 to 1.5. At best they are going to be 1.35 with a good day(say 300/3)?


That was why I originally layed them but decided a TRAIN is more likey after a safeish start so I hoppped on them.

By:
jucel69
When: 30 Mar 18 09:57

Mar 30, 2018 -- 9:53AM, Fatslogger wrote:


Mar 30, 2018 --  9:40AM, jucel69 wrote:That was a very nice drop to 4.3/4.4I got some 4.6 so didn’t take full advantage but have got rid of my draw backs at 6.6 and 7.2 from 6.2 down to 4.6 so was quite nicely green on SA and draw but took some more draw on it blipping back up to 4.7 and it’s blipped a little further so will sit around for a bit now. Surely this game now pans out with a decent to big SA first innings total then them destroying the Aussie first innings with their excellent attack on a pacy wicket with some variable bounce and a bit of turn often enough for 1.5 to be a massive SA price. It’s not as if they couldn’t win scoring 275 or say if both sides got 325 first dig either. Not saying it’s impossible for the Aussie batting to go well but it’s a feeble line up really, with the two openers only just having flown in too.


thunderstorms are now possible on days 3,4 & 5

By:
Fatslogger
When: 30 Mar 18 10:01

Mar 30, 2018 -- 9:46AM, detraveller wrote:


Am I correct in thinking there is hardly any downside to laying SA at 1.5? With the good start they have drifted from 1.44 to 1.5. At best they are going to be 1.35 with a good day(say 300/3)?


Well it depends on what you think your upside is. How far do you reckon they drift if they lose a couple of wickets and would you then green up? The market loves SA and rightly so looking at the two teams, even before factoring in the psychology.

By:
detraveller
When: 30 Mar 18 10:04
My lay is only a small lay. I am not thinking of any upside. What I want is 1.6 to lump on. But the more I think of how this game goes on, the more I am believing 1.6 will be hard to get.

We will know more once a wicket falls. I am waiting for now.
By:
Cardinal Scott
When: 30 Mar 18 10:10
Aus are doomed, Cummins pace is down, that Chad Sayers has been thrown in here,unfair on him if he never gets another chance.
By:
detraveller
When: 30 Mar 18 10:18
These two aren't in the habit of throwing their wickets away. Neither are the next 3. Then there is TheCock. And then the aussies are in a miserable state. I will never forgive myself if I am unable to lump on the Saffers at a good price.
By:
Fatslogger
When: 30 Mar 18 10:34
The lay at 1.5 appeals a lot more now but unless they really collapse badly I doubt you’ll see much of a SA price spike. You might get 1.6 if another goes soon.
By:
Fatslogger
When: 30 Mar 18 10:35
I’ve similarly tried to be too clever with draw trading and now just have to sit with small SA red waiting for a draw drop.
By:
detraveller
When: 30 Mar 18 10:50
My wonderful trading skills, intelligence and a gifted brain have allowed me to lump on SA at an average price of 1.57. A little more still available in reserve in case something happens. I don't see how SA could fkup this game(except rain).

Next time we meet(IPL probably), I will be back in Germany with a verified betfair account, trading like a pro like all of you here Cool.

I have a lot of work to do this weekend. So pardon me if I'm unable to contribute, especially on the subject of ball tampering. But i'll leave you with this. Starc was the mastermind behind the whole episode. The whole team was in on it. Starc threatened to open his mouth publicly. The captain and VC were going to go anyways. So Sutherland came up with this clever plan that would keep everyone quiet and afraid and satisfied. The 3 were to go immediately. Lehmann was to follow the next day, once he was exonerated. Starc wasn't ready to give up his place because there was no proof of his involvement. But Warner and Smith weren't happy either. So Starc agreed to fake his injury and quit the IPL, agreeing to take a financial hit in return for Smith/Warner keeping his involvement secret.
By:
detraveller
When: 30 Mar 18 10:54
And please save my post in case the Illuminati report it. Goodbye.
By:
Whisperingdeath
When: 30 Mar 18 11:08
I have zeroed my green on SA and backed the draw@4.9

Doesn't seem to be much prospect of forward progress on SA price. Can't see them get beat but the draw may become a possibility. If it does become a " possibility " I will get out.
By:
GRANTCKING
When: 30 Mar 18 11:54
5555555555555555555
By:
Whisperingdeath
When: 30 Mar 18 12:21
Here we go

The draw move?
By:
peckerdunne
When: 30 Mar 18 12:23
4.9 all the way to 4.7

Must be the Leo Sayers effect
By:
Whisperingdeath
When: 30 Mar 18 12:26
I'll answer that

Sad

Erm negative Captain!
By:
peckerdunne
When: 30 Mar 18 12:27
market will take along time to unravel taking the view OZ will not be up to it

which implies value will be had somewhere
By:
peckerdunne
When: 30 Mar 18 12:30
Saffer price wants to tip toe up because draw shortens and Oz big enough for now
By:
Whisperingdeath
When: 30 Mar 18 12:42
I want to take a small win and get out
By:
Whisperingdeath
When: 30 Mar 18 12:43
I bet a pound to make a hundred, not the other way round

I guess that is why I am poor and not a BankerCry
By:
peckerdunne
When: 30 Mar 18 12:44
and Bobby McGhee
By:
peckerdunne
When: 30 Mar 18 12:56
Do i not like that young man........Laugh
By:
peckerdunne
When: 30 Mar 18 12:57
feck yeah!
By:
peckerdunne
When: 30 Mar 18 13:25
betting over round here  101.2
By:
peckerdunne
When: 30 Mar 18 13:30
oh dear  full head on patella clash
By:
Whisperingdeath
When: 30 Mar 18 14:28
Can only see one result at the moment however I am on the draw! Go figure!
By:
tomtimtum
When: 30 Mar 18 15:14
They already have enough runs vs this Aus batting lineup
By:
peckerdunne
When: 30 Mar 18 15:46
LaughLaughLaugh

No Davey not in my fcuking team you aint.
By:
Injera
When: 30 Mar 18 16:16
Good fightback by the Aussies.

Still looks a great toss to win though. Pitch very, very dry.
By:
Fatslogger
When: 31 Mar 18 08:08
I’m quite puzzled by the draw price here: it kept dipping towards the close after blipping up with wickets, which suited me trading it but I fully expected a drop at close then a slow rise back up to low to mid 4s but it’s stayed under 4, which seems very odd on a dry track on which the side that’s actually got some batsmen lost 6 wickets in a day. Anyway, I’ve leveraged a strong position to be £6.5k draw red, expecting to close it out overnight, which hasn’t come in but if I have to hold on until Aus bats I can live with that. I don’t see them saving this test once in eight times, let alone four.
By:
Cardinal Scott
When: 31 Mar 18 08:29
Faf may be gone at the game, I hear he  was out leaving a ball yet again.   Hash needs to retire, his average is falling and falling, if he is not careful it will end up at Ian Bell levels which is a mockery as he is far better than Bellsy.
By:
Fatslogger
When: 31 Mar 18 08:41
Hash hasn’t had a terrible series has he?

I don’t like it when the market is a mile out by my estimation and I can’t work out why the mugs are so wrong. It may be a weather worry but can’t see how the chance of an odd storm gets the draw below 3.5.
By:
Cardinal Scott
When: 31 Mar 18 08:48

Mar 31, 2018 -- 8:41AM, Fatslogger wrote:


Hash hasn’t had a terrible series has he? I don’t like it when the market is a mile out by my estimation and I can’t work out why the mugs are so wrong. It may be a weather worry but can’t see how the chance of an odd storm gets the draw below 3.5.


0,8,56,27,31,31,27.....not terrible but mediocre and hanging on will hurt his legacy. Sad

By:
Fatslogger
When: 31 Mar 18 08:51
That’s a bit worse than I recalled, to be fair. He’s looked out of sorts for a long while, I agree, so may well not be a blip. Guys with less orthodox technique often struggle more as they lose their eye than technically perfect players like Tendulkar or Bell, funnily enough.
By:
Cardinal Scott
When: 31 Mar 18 09:00
In last hout SA has been perfect for tick nickinmg jumping about with in a fairly tight range
By:
Fatslogger
When: 31 Mar 18 09:02
Well the draw price wasn’t the expectation that they might not start on time then.
By:
jucel69
When: 31 Mar 18 09:02
I think this is already a good score on this pitch,' reckons Shane Warne, in his pitch report. 'The pitch has a lot of pace, there's plenty of jump from a length. Shaun Pollock adds that there will be plenty of nip, some turn and good carry throughout the day.
By:
Fatslogger
When: 31 Mar 18 09:02
I’m very tempted to go £10k draw red.
By:
jucel69
When: 31 Mar 18 09:03

Mar 31, 2018 -- 9:02AM, Fatslogger wrote:


Well the draw price wasn’t the expectation that they might not start on time then.


The players are out in the middle, can South Africa go past 400? That should set them up nicely going ahead. Plenty of dark clouds hovering around and the new ball is just 8 overs old. Should assist the pacers. Pat Cummins to start for the visitors, two slips, a gully and a short cover-point in place..

By:
jucel69
When: 31 Mar 18 09:03
https://en.sat24.com/en/za/rain
By:
Cardinal Scott
When: 31 Mar 18 09:12
Bloody Heck , look at the market.
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