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Zimmers v Windies 2nd test
Zimmers v Windies 2nd test
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Just always look for value - last wicket today went from 2.2 to 1.34 - That makes no sense with 4 other wickets needing to play approximately 30 overs. LAY of the century!
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For me 7s on the draw was much the better value on that wicket, seeing as the inverse of 1.34 is only about 4 and I was already big green on the Zim win, which was looking very unlikely with or without more wickets so no need to add more to it by laying WI. I only wish I hadn't wasted a chunk of green drip-backing WI as their odds started rising again, thinking they'd get at least one more wicket before time got too critical.
But yeah - those value trades are great if you can spot them in the heat of battle. |
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Rules can be very restrictive to value and opportunity and in the heat of battle more so.
I think a loosely fluid strategy is more important otherwise you are just gripped by fear and pishing on fires as a way of survival which is totally ****, i can tell ya. Charles has a different view... Firstly grab a large vodka and secondly grab one's nuts, whilst somehow never busting out...  |
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The truth is, I do the same 5 or 6 trades over and over. Recently, I have moved to a loss minimization approach in the sense, I'll willingly take a small loss rather than risk a bigger one.
Because I don't bet inplay, opportunity and value aren't much of an issue for me. Except when it rains. |
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So I don't quite get it - in Aus you're not allowed to bet in-play AND you can't trade overnight between days (meaning it's not allowed? Or cos of timezones and sleep/work?). What does leave you free to do other than an outright final-outcome bet?
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The Test overnight trading restriction only came in a few weeks ago. I do a lot of preplay trading in limited overs and other sports. Including in sports I don't know much about, like the current rugby league WC. There is also something else I do, which I keep quiet about, because it can be lucrative and I don't want to point the sharper minds on here toward it.
You can bet inplay over the phone, but I almost never do. |
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Ah - that's why I stopped trading options - I couldn't find a broker that facilitated trading them on-line. One used to allow buying-to-open or -close and selling-to-close but selling-to-open (writing) had to be done over the phone, which I hated. Margin for option-writing was always unnecessarily complicated too, although it was handy being able to use assets other than cash. What used to be good for punters was the "Public Limit Order Board", very much like putting up a price on BF by phone. Sadly no more,so you are always at the mercy of the market-makers prices and the market is sometimes illiquid enough that they could easily guess what side of the trade you are on when you get a quote. Options markets are very similar in nature to the runs lines markets.
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So rules are a good idea in preventing losses but can also result in preventing profit.
I like to call it the battle of Fear or Gear............... |