Got some good trading out of this morning's Zim write-off drift (after a fruitless overnight tick-nicking vigil).

Position  is now WI 1 : Draw 2 : Zim 7

Might leave it at that now as Zims chances are probably dead as FS says (wicket just fell so even more so now).

Your Eminence, may I ask when you tick-nick do you go counter-trend and wait for a reversal or do you guess/judge the likely direction and add to the position on each tick until you feel the move has exhausted itself? When I go counter-trend I always seem to find the drift goes quite a few ticks further than I would have expected and I have to wait up all night looking for any chance to close out at a loss/break-even or if I'm lucky a tiny gain. If I don't go counter-trend though, I find the drift very hard to predict and often it goes the opposite way soon after the close of play just for a few ticks (enough to goose people) then reverses later in the night.

I remember years ago someone asked "why do the batting team's odds usually drift overnight?" Before then I always thought it was random as to which outcome drifted, usually the long-odds outsider, but since then I have had that idea in the back of my head, though I'm not at all convinced. On this match after the close of play on Day 1 the draw drifted quite a lot then came back in just at start of play (irritatingly not quite all the way until play had started, after which the odds dropped quite rapidly - juicy but very risky for the size of position used in overnight trading). Last night I tried to tick-nick WI and got stuffed by one tick and had to nurse it all night. I'd put my lay in with plenty of later money coming after me, expecting to get to trade it back on the opposite thinner side, but suddenly all the volume on my side got eaten leaving a left-over (so the bid became the ask) - then nothing happened for several hours. Really frustrating. Usually I'm able to tweak my position overnight enough to get rid of a decent chunk of any first-day or enhance any level green by a reasonable amount, but I really don't like to tick-nick in decent size in-play - you're a much braver man than I!

If the remaining batsmen were to achieve their average scores (not taking into account differences between first and second innings) that's about another 140 runs added from here meaning a lead of barely 90. But one or two well-above average contributions might be enough to make the game interesting. If they can at least level the score before the next wicket we could get some market panic.

Hmmm - sounds plausible (today doing the opposite just to be awkward). I usually just let the drift go whichever way it wants to then fade it, but often it goes further than I expected. Sometimes there are big chunks of money either side so it's safer to trade inside the two lumps like Zim post-close yesterday.

I was thinking about your situation the other day - I'm definitely a better in-play trader than I am a judge of overall sporting probabilities and I doubt I'd do anything like as well if I couldn't use all the options available, so if you're able to come out ahead despite the hurdles you must have a highly sought-after skill. I really hope you find a way to capitalise more on it.

I called that the Weather Anxiety Trade, and made a lot of money on it over the years. You need to be confident in your weather reading skills, but that was a strong point for me.

I no longer follow Tests. You are asking the wrong person.

Still money to be made in womens cricket. Although I missed out the Pak Nz game today. It was the right play. Just didn't get on even though I was offering the best price for a few hours.

4 day tests No Than You TERRIBLE for sports traders.

More casual trading from me getting draw laid overnight expecting it to drift (as per pxb’s comments above) but it came in instead and then failing to move my draw backs out so got much worse price than I should have done with wicket. If I’d just traded this game a bit more attentively I’d be absolutely massive here but am at least nicely placed just through being keen to snap up the draw at high prices when I think it’s been over priced almost all game. Unusual really, as usually I think the draw is too short all match.

Feels to me like Zim very good shot to save the test from here with draw still high price at 3 or over. Bat 27 overs for 68 runs and set 145 off 35 and although it sounds easy won’t necessarily be trivial on this track. Could even be left hanging on if wickets tumble looking for quick runs. Obviously more runs in more overs would make it correspondingly harder. Even the Zim win isn’t dead.

I've more or less levelled off and now drip-adding to WI as they drift. Uncanny how often a wicket falls after a fast move in odds gets underway.

Windies are drifting fast now as the next 10 overs are critical.

If they bat another 20 overs they'll be 140-150 ahead. That will be a tall ask for WI to chase in only 35 overs (more than 4-an over) but probably easy to block out. Zim's best chance will be to get bowled out for under 120 with 45+ overs left and then hope for a chase-attempting collapse. WI may go for it if it's under 3 an over.

227/7 in 109 overs

a draw must be as good as a win for zimmers !!

still need 30 runs.........or 15 overs.

deserve the draw

I'll be well-impressed with Zim's attitude if they declare during Tea.

Good result for Zim but you just feel they could've accelerated 20 overs ago and dangled a carrot for Windies.

My discipline used to be terrible even though I actually ended up doing really well on Tests for a number of years before taking a lengthy break. In the financial markets having poor discipline can kill you very quickly!

In case this helps anybody, here's what I've been trying to work towards for Tests:-

Whatever the "cash-out" figure is on the last day, I try to make sure my minimum win on any outcome is at least two thirds of that figure. That still allows me enough green to tweak the position if the odds swing around a lot. (The aim prior to that is of course to reduce any reds and/or be all green by the last day!)

Another rule I have, for when things go horribly awry, is to never allow my last day red to be higher than a fraction, say a half or at worst 2/3rds of my maximum in-play red in the previous few days.

An add-on to that, after satisfying the first condition, might also be to aim to lose no more than 2/3rds of whatever green you started the last day with on the favourte or second-favourite, (or whatever fraction you see fit).

It's a given in the above that you keep your maximum in-play risk at never more than a set percentage of your bank, eg 2% or maybe 5%. Trading after hours can temporarily use much higher limits as long a you don't fall asleep and/or let the position run into live play.

I think those guidelines ensure that one never loses more than the allocated per-match risk in a worst case scenario, and in most cases the wins will be larger than any losses, but natural greed won't cause you to hold out for the full amount of a high win at the expense of a loss or small win on what might have looked like an unlikely result that then comes in unexpectedly.

Personally I never back short odds if it means going red elsewhere. I cost myself a good chunk of profit evening up WI at short odds today, but I was keen to make sure my profit was above a certain amount after losing on a silly match recently. Normally, I'd settle for a small green on the short favourite and hope for a later turnaround of events.

Anyone else with ideas for trading rules please do speak up!