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1st Test: West Indies v Pakistan at Kingston

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By:

jucel69 When: 23 Apr 17 15:45

Apr 23, 2017 -- 3:43PM, Foinavon wrote:

Three days to get a result, should be enough.

Worth a dabble at these prices. Both sides have history of horrific batting

By:

DAN1974 When: 23 Apr 17 15:51

draw getting back in again

By:

East_Coast_Eagle When: 23 Apr 17 15:53

draw price all over the shop

By:

PLEASE TELL THE TRUTH When: 23 Apr 17 15:57

crazy short given the forecast !!

By:

DAN1974 When: 23 Apr 17 16:43

theres some strange prices here

By:

Fatslogger When: 23 Apr 17 16:47

I got very excited about the restart any layed draw at 1.65! Now it's at 1.45 I feel obliged to go harder, although of course I desperately don't want the wickets for WI that will bring it out. Does reduce my exposure on them a bit though and gives me a juicy Pak green if they manage to bat past.

By:

DAN1974 When: 23 Apr 17 16:48

yeah, I layed at 1.64 expecting it to go out and it has come in.

By:

DAN1974 When: 23 Apr 17 16:51

I need wickets now, I have a bigger WI green

By:

Fatslogger When: 23 Apr 17 16:51

Apr 23, 2017 -- 4:48PM, DAN1974 wrote:

yeah, I layed at 1.64 expecting it to go out and it has come in.

Hard lay 1.45 has turned out well anyway. Market spooked by a fake bit of rain? All a bit odd. Still have a terrible position but some decent batting from Pakistan and it could start looking okay again.

By:

DAN1974 When: 23 Apr 17 17:07

As long as the game keeps moving along I will be happy, what I definately don't want is a Pakistan blockathon

By:

Fatslogger When: 23 Apr 17 17:10

Baby has arrived, his sister is watching him like a hawk while his mum has a nap and there's an utter orgy of cricket and football on for me to bet the youngsters' inheritances on with no sleep. Happy days.

By:

DAN1974 When: 23 Apr 17 17:10

congratulations

By:

DAN1974 When: 23 Apr 17 17:13

Poor bowling for WI here, Stuart Law has got a difficult job on his hands. There just seems to be a lack of energy in their cricket

By:

Injera When: 23 Apr 17 17:16

I reckon Holder will bowl well on here.

By:

jucel69 When: 23 Apr 17 17:21

Apr 23, 2017 -- 5:16PM, Injera wrote:

I reckon Holder will bowl well on here.

He looks like he should be a quality bowler but he just hasn't got it

By:

DAN1974 When: 23 Apr 17 17:23

a wicket and the draw doesn't budge

By:

Injera When: 23 Apr 17 17:25

Market assumes Pakistan will get 400+ and put Windies under real pressure Day 5.

Quite an assumption..

By:

Foinavon When: 23 Apr 17 17:27

jucel69
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23 Apr 17 15:45
Joined: 03 Aug 12 | Topic/replies: 24,769 | Blogger: jucel69's blog

Apr 23, 2017 -- 3:43PM, Foinavon wrote:

Three days to get a result, should be enough.

Worth a dabble at these prices. Both sides have history of horrific batting

Nothing has changed [:laugh:

By:

Fatslogger When: 23 Apr 17 17:31

Apr 23, 2017 -- 5:23PM, DAN1974 wrote:

a wicket and the draw doesn't budge

It's a total mystery, what the draw is up to today, isn't it? I've done okay laying it but should be a lot higher.

By:

Injera When: 23 Apr 17 17:35

Wickets mean Pakistan's RR will drop.

Day 3. Just starting the 2nd innings of the match. Rain about. I think the draw price is about right.

By:

Foinavon When: 23 Apr 17 17:39

Pakistan just need to bat sensibly for three to four sessions then have a slog. Hopefully bowl WI out cheaply day 4/5

By:

Fatslogger When: 23 Apr 17 17:41

Apr 23, 2017 -- 5:35PM, Injera wrote:

Wickets mean Pakistan's RR will drop.Day 3. Just starting the 2nd innings of the match. Rain about. I think the draw price is about right.

You don't think it should have moved with the wicket? WI win the least likely perceived outcome by the market but clearly is at least an option.

By:

Injera When: 23 Apr 17 17:45

Not really FS. Windies have to bat again, taking time out of the match. Taking 19 wickets from here is a big ask.

Pakistan can win by batting just the once hence their price.

By:

Fatslogger When: 23 Apr 17 17:50

Apr 23, 2017 -- 5:45PM, Injera wrote:

Not really FS. Windies have to bat again, taking time out of the match. Taking 19 wickets from here is a big ask.Pakistan can win by batting just the once hence their price.

I understand why the prices are as they are but if you agree that the WI win is in the game, which is clearly what the market believes, then wouldn't the increased chance of the WI win take from the draw more than the loss of time from Pak scoring slower would give back? I assume you think not, from your post, which I suppose is fair enough now I think about it.

By:

Injera When: 23 Apr 17 17:54

Well Windies came in from 15s to 9s on that wicket. Pak went from 3s to 3.5s.

I just think wickets are draw backers' friends right now. For a result, the best scenario is big partnerships at a healthy rate.

By:

DAN1974 When: 23 Apr 17 18:03

I wonder if the pitch will turn a lot more as the match goes on, it was doing a bit on the first day.

By:

DAN1974 When: 23 Apr 17 18:27

the market is starting to look about right to me now.

By:

Foinavon When: 23 Apr 17 19:48

Seven overs nine runs this session so scoring not easy. Slow outfield too.
Can't complain as I wanted them to bat cautiously

. Need to graft another 200 then hit out if wickets left. Day 5 could be tricky as it often is.

By:

Fatslogger When: 23 Apr 17 19:58

The draw has reacted hugely to this, admittedly very turgid, partnership. Having got draw prices from 1.66 up to 1.92, I've been laying mostly 1.55 and lower and am very tempted by more. Problem is, I've layed for a lot more money than backed because the prices have always felt a little pro draw in a game with plenty of time left.

By:

Fatslogger When: 23 Apr 17 19:59

Oh, I just can't resist 1.38 to lay. That's far too short. Could easily lose a session or more to a shower and still that price would be too short.

By:

Fatslogger When: 23 Apr 17 20:09

Missed the 1.33 though.

By:

Fatslogger When: 23 Apr 17 20:09

They were always going to score some runs (or get out) at some point.

By:

Fatslogger When: 23 Apr 17 20:19

Hmm, back down again as back in shells. It does have to be said that WI got enough runs here that Pakistan probably being sensible not playing recklessly but I'm surprised they're being quite this conservative and expect some shots eventually.

By:

DAN1974 When: 23 Apr 17 20:24

lifeless pitch and no urgency from either side,looks a nailed on draw at the moment.

By:

Fatslogger When: 23 Apr 17 20:30

Apr 23, 2017 -- 8:24PM, DAN1974 wrote:

lifeless pitch and no urgency from either side,looks a nailed on draw at the moment.

It's not even tea on day 3 though! There's an awful lot of time left for stuff to happen here. I don't think the WI win is much in the picture as 18 more wickets looks like too many for them given they've got to bat again and are pretty rubbish with the ball but even that's not impossible and I think Pakistan speeding up once a platform is set and particularly Safraz scoring quickly then killing the WI second innings is entirely plausible. Doesn't even really need the speeding up if the WI second innings is bad enough and this is WI we're talking about.

By:

Foinavon When: 23 Apr 17 20:33

I agree FS, most of my green is on Pakistan but I'm carefully avoiding red anywhere. Perhaps I shouldn't be this cautious but it's hard when you already have a decent amount of profit.

By:

DAN1974 When: 23 Apr 17 20:33

yeah, i agree FS, just the way it feels at the moment

we all know a callypso collapso is on the cards on day 5

By:

Foinavon When: 23 Apr 17 21:33

Well done Younis!

By:

DAN1974 When: 23 Apr 17 21:33

10000 runs for Younis, i hope he gets to 10100 pretty quickly

By:

pxb When: 23 Apr 17 21:33

Morning chaps. Looks like not much will happen today until bad light stops play.