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New Zealand V South Africa 3rd Test Hamilton

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By:

DAN1974 When: 28 Mar 17 23:04

i dont want to go to bed fully exposed, but i dont want to waste any profit.

By:

Fatslogger When: 28 Mar 17 23:04

Mar 28, 2017 -- 11:03PM, pxb wrote:

But that involves psychologyI make the odd post on the psychology of markets on the General Betting forum. Surprising how few people even consider it. jucel is switched on to it though. Good man, jucel.

I will look out the general forum.

By:

detraveller When: 28 Mar 17 23:04

I actually saw 1.62 and jumped out of bed to find out what exactly was happening. I guess then Bavuma fell and it shortened and then i thought these are short odds so didn't back.

By:

Steam When: 28 Mar 17 23:04

People probably going off to bed..squaring off position and not caring for the last 100 pounds..

By:

tyco161 When: 28 Mar 17 23:04

Mar 28, 2017 -- 11:03PM, peckerdunne wrote:

I want to sleep now but don't want to miss the 1.3...........

Such an interesting subject, I have seen some of your post on the GB forum.

By:

detraveller When: 28 Mar 17 23:09

I'll be sad when this test is over. Been 11 days.

By:

pxb When: 28 Mar 17 23:09

Slogger (and tyco)

http://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30708439/analysis-and-punting-based-on-24-months-racing-data---edges-rarely-beat-commission

By:

peckerdunne When: 28 Mar 17 23:10

I'm celebrating with a cadbury creme egg....

By:

tyco161 When: 28 Mar 17 23:14

Mar 28, 2017 -- 11:09PM, pxb wrote:

Slogger (and tyco)http://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30708439/analysis-and-punting-based-on-24-months-racing-data---edges-rarely-beat-commission

Thanks, will have another look when have time. I like the psychological theory that small increments of pleasure are greater than the sum of those parts. Therefore psychologically its easier to back the batting team in cricket for instance... runs coming at a regular basis as opposed to backing the bowling side where you have many small increments of pain that are greater than the pleasure you get when a wicket falls. For this reason (as well as others) I believe the draw is consistently under where it should be an "layable"

By:

jucel69 When: 28 Mar 17 23:15

I've not posted as I didn't want to jinx it.
Feeling pretty safe now

Not laid a penny off yet and won't do so unless they set foot on the pitch, which isn't going to happen!

By:

detraveller When: 28 Mar 17 23:16

Interesting. I have struggled with(and still do) laying batting teams. The scoreboard ticking gives me a sense of security, though i know a wicket shatters it all. But if i lay the batting team, each run is like a dagger and you feel like a wicket is never gonna fall.

By:

jucel69 When: 28 Mar 17 23:17

I slept really well last night too, my subconscious must have been happy with my position. Normally I have pretty sleepless nights when I have a lot on the table

By:

tyco161 When: 28 Mar 17 23:19

Mar 28, 2017 -- 11:16PM, detraveller wrote:

Interesting. I have struggled with(and still do) laying batting teams. The scoreboard ticking gives me a sense of security, though i know a wicket shatters it all. But if i lay the batting team, each run is like a dagger and you feel like a wicket is never gonna fall.

Exactly... read up on psychology... it really does mess with your mind and that is why its "comfortable" backing the draw.... when it may be the worst thing to do :) (not in this game obviously)

By:

detraveller When: 28 Mar 17 23:20

I'll do that.

By:

tyco161 When: 28 Mar 17 23:20

Mar 28, 2017 -- 11:15PM, jucel69 wrote:

I've not posted as I didn't want to jinx it. Feeling pretty safe nowNot laid a penny off yet and won't do so unless they set foot on the pitch, which isn't going to happen!

Did you get plenty on? Thank for the quick heads up last night too when the met changed... managed to get some (was not fully convinced) draw at 2.62

By:

DAN1974 When: 28 Mar 17 23:21

well done jucel

next test match is WI v Pak in Jamica, 22nd April. i will try my best not to have another bet until then.

By:

PLEASE TELL THE TRUTH When: 28 Mar 17 23:21

The Draw4 £300.00 £900.00

By:

jucel69 When: 28 Mar 17 23:21

By:

jucel69 When: 28 Mar 17 23:22

Mar 28, 2017 -- 11:20PM, tyco161 wrote:

Mar 28, 2017 -- 11:15PM, jucel69 wrote:I've not posted as I didn't want to jinx it. Feeling pretty safe nowNot laid a penny off yet and won't do so unless they set foot on the pitch, which isn't going to happen!Did you get plenty on? Thank for the quick heads up last night too when the met changed... managed to get some (was not fully convinced) draw at 2.62

Put all my green on it, now have 15k on the draw. Happys days after losing 13k on the 2nd Ind/Aus test

By:

tomtimtum When: 28 Mar 17 23:23

Good stuff Juce

The ladyboys will be earning tonight

By:

detraveller When: 28 Mar 17 23:23

The cloud formation today was different from the ones on previous days. This one just keeps swirling around and has now engulfed hamilton again. Sort of shows weather prediction is not just about clouds and rain. This is the same cloud that i saw soon after stumps yesterday and thought this will bring overnight rain. Then 6 hours later i was searching for the cloud buildup that will bring rain during the day. As it turned out, its the same cloud that just keeps spinning over hamilton and region.

By:

jucel69 When: 28 Mar 17 23:24

Mar 28, 2017 -- 11:23PM, tomtimtum wrote:

Good stuff Juce The ladyboys will be earning tonight

By:

detraveller When: 28 Mar 17 23:24

My biggest win to date but im too ashamed to tell how much :D

By:

Fatslogger When: 28 Mar 17 23:24

Mar 28, 2017 -- 11:22PM, jucel69 wrote:

Mar 28, 2017 -- 11:20PM, tyco161 wrote:Mar 28, 2017 -- 11:15PM, jucel69 wrote:I've not posted as I didn't want to jinx it. Feeling pretty safe nowNot laid a penny off yet and won't do so unless they set foot on the pitch, which isn't going to happen!Did you get plenty on? Thank for the quick heads up last night too when the met changed... managed to get some (was not fully convinced) draw at 2.62Put all my green on it, now have 15k on the draw. Happys days after losing 13k on the 2nd Ind/Aus test

Really pleased for you. You can open the proper stuff up and save the Black Booster for another day.

I'm also quite pleased for myself having dodged bullets in both tests. A common lesson is not to get over exposed and await really good opportunities so you can really exploit them. Don't force yourself into a position.

By:

pxb When: 28 Mar 17 23:25

I don't follow soccer and have no real idea which team will win a game, but I do dabble when there is nothing else, like yesterday in an Aus WC qualifier. And I only ever have one trade - Nobody is going to score.

By:

tyco161 When: 28 Mar 17 23:25

Mar 28, 2017 -- 11:23PM, tomtimtum wrote:

Good stuff Juce The ladyboys will be earning tonight

classic...

By:

jucel69 When: 28 Mar 17 23:25

Perfect timing really, it's my 40th b'day on Friday and then I'm on holiday for a month.

By:

tomtimtum When: 28 Mar 17 23:26

Holiday during IPL?! OH MY

By:

detraveller When: 28 Mar 17 23:26

juce you wont be around during ipl?

By:

jucel69 When: 28 Mar 17 23:27

Mar 28, 2017 -- 11:24PM, Fatslogger wrote:

Mar 28, 2017 -- 11:22PM, jucel69 wrote:Mar 28, 2017 -- 11:20PM, tyco161 wrote:Mar 28, 2017 -- 11:15PM, jucel69 wrote:I've not posted as I didn't want to jinx it. Feeling pretty safe nowNot laid a penny off yet and won't do so unless they set foot on the pitch, which isn't going to happen!Did you get plenty on? Thank for the quick heads up last night too when the met changed... managed to get some (was not fully convinced) draw at 2.62Put all my green on it, now have 15k on the draw. Happys days after losing 13k on the 2nd Ind/Aus testReally pleased for you. You can open the proper stuff up and save the Black Booster for another day. I'm also quite pleased for myself having dodged bullets in both tests. A common lesson is not to get over exposed and await really good opportunities so you can really exploit them. Don't force yourself into a position.

Got a bottle of Pappy Van Winkle that I will be opening on Friday Some JW blue label too

By:

jucel69 When: 28 Mar 17 23:28

Mar 28, 2017 -- 11:26PM, detraveller wrote:

juce you wont be around during ipl?

Nope, having a proper break!

By:

tomtimtum When: 28 Mar 17 23:28

Black Booster

Forgot about that

By:

jucel69 When: 28 Mar 17 23:28

By:

tomtimtum When: 28 Mar 17 23:29

By:

tomtimtum When: 28 Mar 17 23:29

shocking stuff

By:

jucel69 When: 28 Mar 17 23:29

Mar 28, 2017 -- 11:28PM, jucel69 wrote:

looks fecking putrid

By:

DAN1974 When: 28 Mar 17 23:30

pmsl

By:

jucel69 When: 28 Mar 17 23:30

c'mon call it off umps, this test has lasted forever!!

By:

pxb When: 28 Mar 17 23:31

dt, have a look at the synoptic chart. That will give you an idea whats happening.

By:

tomtimtum When: 28 Mar 17 23:31

Gotta love a weather play, managed to get some 1.8 on CMM NO in SL ODI, with massive puddles on the outfield