Cricket
3rd Test: India v Australia at Ranchi
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Thanks det. Reassuring to know it's probably nothing at my end, irritating as it may be. I'll add cricmelive.tv to the collection then.
Cricfree sometimes pauses and restarts on its own, but lately, even with Adblock, it has started opening other windows when you click on the Xs to clear the ads. Rubbish like "The Brit Method", etc - "Well take at look, seriously - three hundred and eighty three thousand four hundred and nineteen pounds and thirteen pence in four weeks and I'm simply blown away" etc, etc. |
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Aus will have a tough time batting second with that rough outside left-handers' offstump.
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I would NEVER trust any of those sites on anything other than a Chromebook!
Over 5 years the Mrs anti-virus for her PC costs as much as my Chromebook did and a far superior product IMO. And I've owned PCs since the first one came out (1981). |
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WinViz has Australia at 7.6% with India marginally ahead of draw, both of which I find slightly surprising. It is approaching the kind of situation where it's very tough for the side batting third to win though, even with a bit of a lead, as winning not only requires enough runs not to lose but also enough time to bowl India out, which is unlikely to happen without a Warner special. I quite like to look at this sort of thing by assuming a good performance in each of the remaining innings and if that's not a win, the chance really is remote. Give Australia:
1. Bowl India out for another 60 runs in 20 overs (definitely a decent effort with Jadeja still to come although not by any means the very best they could do). 2. Score 260 in 75 overs (decent score at a good clip and bowled out to give a bit of time, when batting say for 90 overs for 300 would be far worse for chances of victory but might well be where the captain would pull out). 3. Bowl India out in 85 overs for under 290 on a tough final day track? It all seems plausible enough and there's a bit of scope for doing a little worse than that in one of the three and still being able to turn it round by say giving away 90 runs in a session first up but then bowling India out in 70 overs instead. There's almost no scope for doing really badly in even one session though. Give away 100 for 2 wickets in the first session or lose 4/70 when batting and you're needing a series of really dominant sessions to make up for it. I'm assuming WinViz does this sort of scenario multiplication rather more scientifically. Anyway, having sense checked WinViz and agreed it's a tall order for Aus to win, I'm trying to get a lay in for £500 at 6.4 and risk losing £2k on a game I've had all green for days. |
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Interesting analysis, Fatslogger, thanks for sharing it.
I've cut my draw liability but still need a win for either team. I wouldn't rule out an Aus win just yet but it might need a gung-ho performance with the bat. Will Smith go for it or settle for playing not to lose? He usually attempts the former. |
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I'm assuming WinViz does this sort of scenario multiplication rather more scientifically.
More or less, but hundreds of times and gives the average. |
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I agree entirely with all of that FS but a lot depends on if ( or how much ) the pitch deteriorates. how many times do we see sides get skittles on the last day in less than 50 overs.
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Dan, in the OP I noted the groundsman said the match would go 5 days and it will. I don't expect much deterioration day 5.
FS, in my experience Winviz doesn't do a good job in assessing the draw. Not surprising really. All in all, I think how many Smith gets will likely determine the match. Another 100 and it's a draw. Not many and India win. I was thinking it would be difficult for India batting last, but I now think not so difficult. And I agree Aus chances are fairly slim, but funny things happen on the last day of Indian Tests. |
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Most Monte Carlo simulations will be run 10000's times. Does anyone know how they factor in weather probabilities into Winviz?
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Aside from all above scenarios, the question surely is where is the draw price going, short/medium term and perhaps beyond..........
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A multitude of things are required for Oz to be serious about a win.
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Ok...I am now laying the draw..expecting the pitch to now start playing tricks...lets see how it goes..
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India batting slowly toward parity. I think they won't mind a draw, and hope to win the next toss.
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Pudgy is a dream backer's delight
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*draw not dream
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No matter what happens now, Aus are going to be under the pump for a few sessions
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India are masters on these slow turners
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I've got a large Aus red too
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Aus starting to look a bit ragged too
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Lyon last took a wicket day 1 of second test!
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They should be upping the scoring rate now with Jadeja to come and give the long handle. I suspect the players don't quite realise how close to impossible it is for Aus to win and haven't shifted mentality enough.
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This is Kholi grinding Aus into the ground
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Looking very much like a draw.
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Imagine the hoo-har if the umps took them off for light and we lost the rest of the day. At least in the old days the batsmen would get a say.
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Can't imagine the light getting any better.
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I think India will still be batting this time tomorrow
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Back to back test matches too. Aus will have no bowlers left!
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sun's out again now . Maybe India will go deep after tea?
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They should. Finish about 150 ahead and bowl at Aus tomorrow? I think they won't need more than 50 overs to bowl out the aussies.
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They should just declare here - with a lead of 130 and a little over ten overs left, Aus surviving those and then say another session-and-a-half going at 4-an-over would leave India chasing 110 in about 45 overs. That would set up an exciting finish, methinx. Aus probably won't last that long though.
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what is the point in sending Sharma out to block ?
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pointless
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One day we might get a brave Captain who doesn't conform to this bullsh1t.
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