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Pak v WI - 1st Test at Dubai
Pak v WI - 1st Test at Dubai
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Dan @ thanks for correcting me.English is not my first language so.
@detraveller So in case, Pakistan get a lead of 200 over, what target would they like to set for the Windies and how many overs to spare? Remember it's still a pretty flat pitch. |
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The way I see it, if Pak bowl windies out in about 20 more overs and get a lead of 200 just before lunch tomorrow, they just need to bat 50 overs @4 an over to reach 400. WI chase 400 off 110 overs on a day 5 pitch against a quality spinner.
If Pak were desperate for a win they could score faster and give windies over 130 overs to bat. For all this though, they have to get 4 more wickets. When they do that, the picture will be much clearer. Either way windies will need to survive the last day. And they are west indies :) |
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Alternatively you could wait a couple of hours and read jucel and pxb's comments. They'll wake up soon.
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@detraveller.
Thanks for the reply, pretty much agree with all that you said except the 130 overs part. For that to happen, Pakistan will have to score 200 runs in ( 180 -130) - 20 overs played by WI in First session tomorrow = 30 overs. Don't think they can go so superfast with openers like SAMI and Azhar, and WI can bowl a negative line and avoid fast flow of runs. Pakistan would bat for 50 overs and score 200 runs imo, set a target of 400 and declare. Leaving around 110 overs to go at WI in the final innings. |
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Will depend very much on how long WI bat tomorrow morning, and the point about WI bowling negative lines is well taken. Baring an extremely unlikely Pak collapse, WI can't win, and they will be looking to eat up overs.
All in all, I expect Pak will declare tomorrow sometime after tea (supper?), unless there is dew. Wahab commented dew was an issue. So we may see an overnight declaration. |
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This test is nearly a carbon copy of a test earlier in the summer where i lost a packet, Zimbabwe v New Zealand. NZ made 582/4 on an absolute road and i lumped on big style. Zimbabwe then proceeded to make a really good fist of it scoring 362 in 143 overs. I got spooked half way through the Zimbabwe innings, redded out and lumped everything on the draw. Zimbabwe then got skittled on the last day for 142. i learnt a couple of lessons, 1 - If you lump on just see it out to the end. 2- teams regularly get bowled out on the last day. To be honest i knew number 2 was a rule anyway and it wouldnt surprise me if the same thing happened in this match. Having said that i still think it will be a draw. lol
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I recall a couple of recent Tests here produced results late on day 5.
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WI did play out 100+ overs on the final day of the 2nd Test v/s India in the recent series with Royston Chase, Downrich and Holders playing epic knocks.
Infact they saved the match with 4 wickets to spare. So imo WI do have the potential to secure a draw here if they apply themselves properly, especially on a pitch which isn't a rank turner or unplayable. Samuels, Bravo, Chase these guys can survive. Play out the first session of day 5 with minimum loss of wickets and the draw will be a massive favorite again. Plus the pink ball, dew problems, difficult in gripping all point more and more towards a draw. If WI don't get wrapped up within 10 overs today and somehow manage to squeeze close to a session, then Draw is a massive favorite imo. |
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I have Pak a big favourite if WI fail to bat out the morning session and in with a plausible enough chance even if WI make it through say 40 more overs getting to 150 behind, as still scope to bat 50 overs for 200 runs and declare overnight. Never underestimate the threat of good spin on a final day track. Plenty of better sides than WI fail to last even 60 overs in that context, so I'll be laying the draw hard if it gets down to 1.25 or whatever with Pakistan batting on day 5 looking to declare setting 320 in 75 overs, say.
My position is one of those where your only regrets are not doing the same things for more money and holding on to them for longer. Don't think I'll quite make back my run line debacle cash unless I have a few more trades work out and call the end game right. Even that wouldn't make up for both run line and football today, although generally I've had a very strong run since the two wash out tests so can't complain. |
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I've hardly made any trades in this game & watched very little and made a load of cash.
Large draw back at 6/6.2, laid at 2.5ish & then a large draw back at 3.05/3.1 & laid at 2.5. Normally I would have loads more trades than that. There's a lesson there for me! I think if you want to back Pakistan, you can wait until they start bowling again. It might cost you twenty ticks but there could be some infuriating periods of play before they do so. Holder & Dowrich are capable and could take the WI inns into the afternoon session. If you back the draw you have until the end of the Pak inns to make your mind up & shouldn't be too costly. Happy to sit on the sidelines at the moment & back Pak when they bowl second time around. |
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Is 50 overs enough of a rest for pak after bowling120+ overs? Shah imo only a threat to the left handers, and ball will not swing much at all.paks big weapon of reverse swing is also out the equation due to the day night test scenario .so don't think this is a normal Dubai pitch where pak will skittle windies out last day.imo of course
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We shall see shortly.
First up, windies survive 8-10 overs and the draw is 1.6 again... |
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I've been backing the draw high and laying it lower all match and not going to stop today.
I'm mindful that the pitch may break up and that WI batting can be fragile but until I see evidence of either/both, I'll stick to what has been working all test match |
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https://www.geo.tv/latest/117924-Wahab-Riaz-says-pink-ball-dew-giving-tough-time-to-bowlers
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I'm surprised Dubai allow any kind of dew at the ground
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What do you mean juce? Allow?
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I'm surprised Jubai allow any kind of dew at the ground?
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10 overs no wicket and draw will crash
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2.18 to 2.00 already
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draw imploding!!
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pitch looks easier to bat on than ever, so slow and easy paced
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calm down jason!
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lucas again
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shocking fielding
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:D
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outside leg?!
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dont think so
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low full toss my arse
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Viv is on ive turned up my volume :)
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He gives me a headache lol
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Waffles so much and everyone kisses his arse
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viv with the curse
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Windies pretty much staring at having to survive the whole of last day.
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Would be amazed if Pak enforced follow on
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Even if they do, they'll still need to bowl windies out in 100 or so overs. Otherwise they wont have time to chase the runs. Better give the bowlers a rest and bowl on day 5.
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