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pxb
08 Feb 16 10:46
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Date Joined: 07 Jun 10
| Topic/replies: 8,019 | Blogger: pxb's blog
The last 2 Tests of the SH summer. Let's make the most of them.

Quite a few draws at Wellington (some rain affected) and decent scores first bat. I'd say win toss and bat a significant advantage. Nz should prepare a pitch that has the ball moving as it's their major advantage. Some rain forecast day 5.

NZ pitches don't usually deteriorate much, so this could be that rare beast a draw lay to back.
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Report Fatslogger February 14, 2016 1:10 AM GMT

Feb 13, 2016 -- 7:08PM, tomtimtum wrote:


These guys in 1 day mode


If it keeps working for them fair enough and some of the shots that have looked high risk aren't actually all that dangerous but they've both toyed with getting out playing shots they really, really didn't need to. If they start trying to slog Lyon I will be writing a strongly worded email to cricket NZ.

Report detraveller February 14, 2016 1:11 AM GMT
Got my 4.4 lay matched...
Report detraveller February 14, 2016 1:12 AM GMT
If Lyon goes wicketless 3-4 overs it will be great!
Report Fatslogger February 14, 2016 1:12 AM GMT

Feb 13, 2016 -- 7:10PM, tomtimtum wrote:


This pitch has just looked amazing for batting


It has. That, in a way, is why it would be so painful to get out when the bowlers really ought not be able to get you without helping them.

Report tomtimtum February 14, 2016 1:13 AM GMT
4.0 normally a big sticking point in most markets
Report jucel69 February 14, 2016 1:14 AM GMT

Feb 11, 2016 -- 7:38PM, jucel69 wrote:


Feb 12, 2016 --  1:37AM, wondersobright wrote:draw not a runner NZ need to bowl out aus for under 200 for approx 20% of the time to justify their priceseems fair to menot involved pre match on this gameIt is, there have been some huge 2nd innings scores at this ground. That is why they leave so much grass on, because it flattens out so much in days 2.3.4 & 5


Feeling quite smugLove

Report tomtimtum February 14, 2016 1:14 AM GMT
Pxb called it right pre match!
Report Fatslogger February 14, 2016 1:14 AM GMT

Feb 13, 2016 -- 7:11PM, detraveller wrote:


Got my 4.4 lay matched...


Suspect mine has been too then. Glad I stayed up for this, although it remains entirely possible that I'd have done better staying in bed and sleeping, as I moved my 5 out of the way down to 3.5 which I'll regret if a couple of wickets fall soon.

Report tomtimtum February 14, 2016 1:14 AM GMT
Never even heard of a draw lay to back Laugh
Report jucel69 February 14, 2016 1:15 AM GMT

Feb 13, 2016 -- 7:14PM, tomtimtum wrote:


Never even heard of a draw lay to back


Always a runner in NZ

Report tomtimtum February 14, 2016 1:15 AM GMT
Yep, learning this now!
Report pxb February 14, 2016 1:15 AM GMT
Lyon will start to dry up the runs and the batsmen will get more agressive against the seamers and bingo, wickets.
Report jucel69 February 14, 2016 1:17 AM GMT
Back to lay on wickets for mine, from now on.
Report Fatslogger February 14, 2016 1:17 AM GMT

Feb 13, 2016 -- 7:15PM, pxb wrote:


Lyon will start to dry up the runs and the batsmen will get more agressive against the seamers and bingo, wickets.


They've been playing close to a shot a ball to the seamers already, Guptil certainly. Not sure they'll necessarily be unable to score off Lyon either. Guess we'll see. I think Latham can go for periods of time without scoring without getting twitchy. Guptil I'm less sure.

Report tomtimtum February 14, 2016 1:18 AM GMT
Draw just not stopping
Report jucel69 February 14, 2016 1:18 AM GMT
3.8Grin
Report Fatslogger February 14, 2016 1:19 AM GMT

Feb 13, 2016 -- 7:18PM, tomtimtum wrote:


Draw just not stopping


No, it's pulled in my 3.75 already too.

Report jucel69 February 14, 2016 1:19 AM GMT
The draw drop has no MERCY
Report tomtimtum February 14, 2016 1:19 AM GMT
DORP!
Report jucel69 February 14, 2016 1:19 AM GMT
dropped
Report DAN1974 February 14, 2016 1:19 AM GMT
i want to lay the fook out of the this draw but it keeps falling
Report tomtimtum February 14, 2016 1:19 AM GMT
I should have held on to my draw back to longer, pitch looks so easy to bat on
Report tomtimtum February 14, 2016 1:19 AM GMT
oh well, cest la vie
Report jucel69 February 14, 2016 1:20 AM GMT
could hardly reach it ffs
Report the whizz kids February 14, 2016 1:20 AM GMT
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_hnYKTys8rU
Report the whizz kids February 14, 2016 1:21 AM GMT
a bit of music for the train riders.
Report Fatslogger February 14, 2016 1:22 AM GMT
Excellent drop, good man. Another bad, bad shot. How many warnings do they want to get them to play sensibly.

I've had my 3.75 matched before the drop so I'm hardly terribly exposed now: £150 red on results and £1.6k green on draw. Not quite sure whether I'm going to trust the pitch enough to bring my remaining lays down or whether I'm too scared of the irresponsibility of the batsmen. 

How are the boys and girls doing now?
Report jucel69 February 14, 2016 1:23 AM GMT

Feb 13, 2016 -- 7:21PM, the whizz kids wrote:


a bit of music for the train riders.


Bit of old school, not really my cup of char, but there are few that I like. Kinetic and Shelleys were massive when I was younger.

Report DAN1974 February 14, 2016 1:23 AM GMT
what happened to moo moo land, is that the same sh1t or what?
Report detraveller February 14, 2016 1:23 AM GMT
how low will the draw go nefore it starts translating into a nz win?
Report tomtimtum February 14, 2016 1:24 AM GMT
ooh he had it in the webbing
Report jucel69 February 14, 2016 1:24 AM GMT
More club classics for me & then I moved onto french & deep house
Report Fatslogger February 14, 2016 1:24 AM GMT

Feb 13, 2016 -- 7:19PM, DAN1974 wrote:


i want to lay the fook out of the this draw but it keeps falling


Think the market has slightly over reacted given how much time there is left but man is this deck flat? NZ don't need to bat anything like as well as you'd usually have to to save a game where you start your second innings nearly 400 behind with 8 sessions (and an over) left.

Report Fatslogger February 14, 2016 1:26 AM GMT
Hmm, gone back up a bit. It did seem to have fallen an awful long way
Report tomtimtum February 14, 2016 1:26 AM GMT
around 4.0 is always a natural sticking point
Report jucel69 February 14, 2016 1:29 AM GMT
Latham is riding his luck, he doesn't seem to have the concentration to bat long periods of time.
Report tomtimtum February 14, 2016 1:30 AM GMT
forest fire
Report detraveller February 14, 2016 1:31 AM GMT
cashed out at 4.2

Now would be a great time for a wicket
Report tomtimtum February 14, 2016 1:32 AM GMT
Mr selfish! Laugh
Report DAN1974 February 14, 2016 1:32 AM GMT
ive been banging on about how flat this pitch is for ages if you look back through this thread, sometimes you've got to forget about the result and just trade the draw, on a pitch like this if you back the draw at any stage you should be able to get out with a profit.
Report Fatslogger February 14, 2016 1:33 AM GMT

Feb 13, 2016 -- 7:23PM, detraveller wrote:


how low will the draw go nefore it starts translating into a nz win?


Is an interesting question. It's too flat and Australia got too many runs for NZ to have much of a shot even assuming they bat both long and at least reasonably quickly.  They're playing in such an attacking vein that it's worth a bit of thought over the tea interval though. They could finish today at 250/0-2 and be only 130 behind with two days left and the possibility of some more really quick scoring to come. Even going berserk there's only a pretty narrow set of scenarios that bring a win into the equation seriously from there though, all of them involving wrecking the Aussie second innings. Course that's analysing the game rather than the market.

Report detraveller February 14, 2016 1:33 AM GMT

Feb 13, 2016 -- 7:32PM, DAN1974 wrote:


ive been banging on about how flat this pitch is for ages if you look back through this thread, sometimes you've got to forget about the result and just trade the draw, on a pitch like this if you back the draw at any stage you should be able to get out with a profit.


was just thinking about you :)

Report tomtimtum February 14, 2016 1:34 AM GMT
that fire looks serious Plain
Report DAN1974 February 14, 2016 1:35 AM GMT
wicket
Report Fatslogger February 14, 2016 1:35 AM GMT
More really **** batting.
Report jucel69 February 14, 2016 1:35 AM GMT
LyonCry
Report DAN1974 February 14, 2016 1:36 AM GMT
terrible shot tbh, trying to save a game
Report jucel69 February 14, 2016 1:37 AM GMT
If I ever see Lyon, I'm going to pull his fcuking fingers out of jointAngry
Report jucel69 February 14, 2016 1:40 AM GMT
In a great position anyway but have more green on the draw
Report Fatslogger February 14, 2016 1:43 AM GMT

Feb 13, 2016 -- 7:40PM, jucel69 wrote:


In a great position anyway but have more green on the draw


Was going to ask then felt I should do some betting. Backed the draw at 5.6 then 5.1 (missing 5.3) looking to catch 4.5 on the way back down.

Report jucel69 February 14, 2016 1:49 AM GMT
I'm backing the draw on every wicket now & trying to squeeze more out that way.
Report Fatslogger February 14, 2016 1:54 AM GMT

Feb 13, 2016 -- 7:49PM, jucel69 wrote:


I'm backing the draw on every wicket now & trying to squeeze more out that way.


Copying that plan although from a position of a lot less strength, I rather suspect. Assume you're being quiet on the numbers out of modesty.

The draw was stuck at 5 for quite a while there so took some more 5s expecting it to go quite quickly quite soon. Otherwise this plan could be described as having got out of gaol but being keen to get back in.

Report detraveller February 14, 2016 1:57 AM GMT
im not going back in on the draw. I got max 4.7 after fall of wicket on matchbook and that wasnt attracting.
Report jucel69 February 14, 2016 1:58 AM GMT

Feb 13, 2016 -- 7:54PM, Fatslogger wrote:


Feb 14, 2016 --  1:49AM, jucel69 wrote:I'm backing the draw on every wicket now & trying to squeeze more out that way.Copying that plan although from a position of a lot less strength, I rather suspect. Assume you're being quiet on the numbers out of modesty. The draw was stuck at 5 for quite a while there so took some more 5s expecting it to go quite quickly quite soon. Otherwise this plan could be described as having got out of gaol but being keen to get back in.


Needed a good win tbf, lost a few shekels recently on 20/20 & odis. This puts me back in the clover for Feb.

Report Fatslogger February 14, 2016 2:03 AM GMT

Feb 13, 2016 -- 7:57PM, detraveller wrote:


im not going back in on the draw. I got max 4.7 after fall of wicket on matchbook and that wasnt attracting.


No, not remotely enticing at that price.

There's a little bit of cash at 4.6 and 4.7 obstructing my 4.5 lays. May go down past 4.5 if they make tea, I suppose.

Report Fatslogger February 14, 2016 2:08 AM GMT

Feb 13, 2016 -- 7:58PM, jucel69 wrote:


Feb 14, 2016 --  1:54AM, Fatslogger wrote:Feb 14, 2016 --  1:49AM, jucel69 wrote:I'm backing the draw on every wicket now & trying to squeeze more out that way.Copying that plan although from a position of a lot less strength, I rather suspect. Assume you're being quiet on the numbers out of modesty. The draw was stuck at 5 for quite a while there so took some more 5s expecting it to go quite quickly quite soon. Otherwise this plan could be described as having got out of gaol but being keen to get back in.Needed a good win tbf, lost a few shekels recently on 20/20 & odis. This puts me back in the clover for Feb.


Had one of those days that starts with a huge loss then everything goes right. I even accidentally bet on the opposite side to the one I intended in the oldies T20 and ended up with a winner. Not that I want to give it back here.

Report Fatslogger February 14, 2016 2:09 AM GMT
Latham has batted vastly better since Guptill got out, hasn't he? Actually looked like an opening batsman.
Report jucel69 February 14, 2016 2:41 AM GMT
Canterbury football game abandoned due to earthquakeSurprised
Report jucel69 February 14, 2016 3:09 AM GMT
Williamson out now, looking grim for the Kiwis
Report pxb February 14, 2016 3:09 AM GMT
Jucel recently mocked me for being concerned about earthquakes affecting cricket matches in NZ.
Report jucel69 February 14, 2016 3:12 AM GMT
Just a bit of reverse undid WIlliamson there
Report pxb February 14, 2016 3:15 AM GMT
One more wicket today would be nice.
Report detraveller February 14, 2016 3:18 AM GMT
Im calling it a day for this game(unless there are more, bigger opportunities). Happy to get out with decent green after backing NZ at the start of day 1.
Report detraveller February 14, 2016 3:59 AM GMT
India in some trouble at the U19s...Would love to see the Windies lift the cup.
Report jucel69 February 14, 2016 4:03 AM GMT
Truly dreadful from Latham.
Report jucel69 February 14, 2016 4:51 AM GMT
Glad I made some decent cash out of this before that collapse. Woeful stuff from NZ against a weak Aus bowling lineup at home on a feather bed.
Report pxb February 14, 2016 5:01 AM GMT
I'll look to get a few more $ backing Aus, but finished really. An innings defeat likely tomorrow. Bar an earthquake.
Report Fatslogger February 14, 2016 9:37 AM GMT

Feb 13, 2016 -- 7:14PM, Fatslogger wrote:


Feb 14, 2016 --  1:11AM, detraveller wrote:Got my 4.4 lay matched...Suspect mine has been too then. Glad I stayed up for this, although it remains entirely possible that I'd have done better staying in bed and sleeping, as I moved my 5 out of the way down to 3.5 which I'll regret if a couple of wickets fall soon.


So I was right in thinking I should have stayed in bed: not only did I move my lay at 5 out to 3.5 and not get that price matched I also backed draw when Guptill out and was too greedy in wanting 4.3 for some of my lay back off. Given that the price was hovering around there at tea very disappointed it didn't get caught up after tea, as there were several overs before Williamson was out.

Report Whisperingdeath February 14, 2016 7:32 PM GMT
How far is Christchurch from Wellington?
Report tyco161 February 14, 2016 8:05 PM GMT
About 300km as the crow flies... but its a 4 hour drive and 3 hour boat crossing if you want to go that way :)
Report pxb February 14, 2016 9:32 PM GMT
Draw has shortened quite a bit. Optimistic kiwi punters.
Report tyco161 February 14, 2016 9:34 PM GMT
Maybe the weather looks dodgy to some when pics were shown? No idea, if anything the weather will help the bowlers today. No rain today or tomorrow>
Report pxb February 14, 2016 9:37 PM GMT
16 overs till the new ball.
Report Whisperingdeath February 14, 2016 9:43 PM GMT
Heard they had a 5.9 Richter in Christchurch. Was just wondering if someone here was plugged into God.

I know it is a long shot but somebody here mentioned it's all
Report pxb February 14, 2016 9:50 PM GMT
http://www.gns.cri.nz/Home/Learning/Science-Topics/Earthquakes/Major-Faults-...
Report tyco161 February 14, 2016 9:58 PM GMT
Anderson gone for 0. Cannot believe Aus are still 1.03 to back... :)
Report jucel69 February 14, 2016 9:59 PM GMT
This is as bad as the WI against Aus, possible worseLaugh
Report jucel69 February 14, 2016 9:59 PM GMT
*possibly
Report pxb February 14, 2016 10:13 PM GMT
I hope the quake hasn't affected the next Test at Christchurch.

I need the money Grin
Report jucel69 February 14, 2016 10:14 PM GMT

Feb 14, 2016 -- 4:13PM, pxb wrote:


I hope the quake hasn't affected the next Test at Christchurch.I need the money


I assume you will be piling into Aus

Report pxb February 14, 2016 10:23 PM GMT
I always trade the draw pre-play. Sometimes with a bias towards one team. Sometimes not. Probably the former in this case.
Report Whisperingdeath February 14, 2016 10:27 PM GMT
Two 5's in two overs. Never seen that before
Report jucel69 February 14, 2016 10:33 PM GMT

Feb 14, 2016 -- 4:23PM, pxb wrote:


I always trade the draw pre-play. Sometimes with a bias towards one team. Sometimes not. Probably the former in this case.


I was just being a tad facetious after this horror show from the  Kiwis.

Report jucel69 February 14, 2016 10:38 PM GMT
What a shot from BJCrazy
Report pxb February 14, 2016 10:39 PM GMT
I don't expect to see Bird again in Test cricket.
Report pxb February 14, 2016 10:44 PM GMT
http://www.foxsports.com.au/cricket/australia/cricket-australia-say-christch...
Report Whisperingdeath February 14, 2016 10:51 PM GMT
In hindsight this game was over by drinks in the first session of the first day

NZ batting can be shocking at times.

I genuinely thought this would be a well balanced match.

Lucky enough I only bet 20% of usual match allocation, but have lost soundly for the first time in ages.

Coulda scratched this but was with Mrs 'Death last night so did not cash out  in the early hours. There I said it. It wasn't my fault!

Seriously overestimated NZ

I hope Santner and Henry play next up and I wish somebody would tell me what happened to Neesham
Report Whisperingdeath February 14, 2016 10:58 PM GMT
Curse of the commentator!
Report pxb February 14, 2016 11:01 PM GMT
NZ gambled on winning the toss and lost.
Report pxb February 14, 2016 11:05 PM GMT
Aus should take the new ball and finish this off. I hate dragged out ends to Tests when I want to get my money on the next one.
Report jucel69 February 14, 2016 11:06 PM GMT
NZ are thinking about changing their flag. Maybe it should be a white flag on a white background.
Report Whisperingdeath February 15, 2016 1:12 AM GMT
Well done everyone!

NZ were truly awful.

Keep Craig as a batter? Got to try Henry.

Better to prepare a green top and hope for the best
Report pxb February 15, 2016 1:20 AM GMT
Better to prepare a green top and hope for the best

I had the same thought. Prepare a green top and hope to win the toss (again).

Some rain in the forecast to make it interesting.
Report jucel69 February 15, 2016 2:17 AM GMT

Feb 14, 2016 -- 7:12PM, Whisperingdeath wrote:


Well done everyone!NZ were truly awful. Keep Craig as a batter? Got to try Henry.Better to prepare a green top and hope for the best


Awful is a compliment. I managed a decent win but left a load behind.
Their shot selection wasn't even fit for village green cricket.
Jackson Bird was useless & Siddle never looks fit yet they still lost by a innings.
Bring back the WI all is forgiven.

Report jucel69 February 15, 2016 2:19 AM GMT
I am extremely annoyed at that surrender tbh.
Fair enough to get beaten comprehensively in Aus, but in your own backyard on a flat deck....
Report Charkitz February 15, 2016 7:39 AM GMT
Settle down Jucel! Wasn't that bad a performance by NZ. Cricket is a game of inches, a few dropped catches and a bad no ball call were the key moments in this game.

And I know I've said this before, but the Oz bowlers are much much better than they are given credit for. It's the dead Australian pitches that make them look ordinary. Have a look at the pitch maps for the Oz bowlers for this test match, their accuracy is extraordinary, including Lyon.
Report Whisperingdeath February 15, 2016 9:42 AM GMT
I'm with Juce,

Some of them need to be arrested for impersonating Test batsmen!

Tbf they have made such good progress as a team and there have been some impressive individual performances as a cricket fan I hoped for better.

There is some truth in what you say Charlitz but not in this match! Aus would have cooked NZ regardless of the no ball . They were extremely dominant with just two bowlers. Mitch did ok but he was not bowling grenades. Hazelwood and Lyons are decent bowlers.

I am getting more than a little annoyed at heavy bats making up for inferior batting technique. Can you imagine how many Bradman, Headly and Hammond would have scored with today's bats on today's pitches? We are having discussions about whether Compton scores quick enough for Test Cricket!

I am Angry!
Report Charkitz February 15, 2016 11:57 AM GMT
I'm still not sure what you're angry about! Look at the top 7 for NZ and have a look at their test averages. Mediocre at best! So batting first on that pitch was always likely to end badly. I agree their second dig was poor but hardly an embarrassment

Lets be honest, Williamson and McCullum have been papering over some cracks in the NZ batting lineup for quite a while now. Especially Williamson, there's an over reliance on him. There's some ordinary players in their top 6, and Watling is a battler, so to see them crumble here is hardly a surprise. But... could you say with any confidence that Oz would have made 150 in 1st inns had McCullum won the toss? They have weaknesses in top 6 too. It was a huge toss to win (despite what market did after toss!)
Report Charkitz February 15, 2016 12:00 PM GMT
And NZ have played some pretty ordinary teams at home in recent times, which has maybe inflated some of our opinions of their batsmen higher than what it should be? I mean Guptill gets out trying to hit a six against Sri Lanka and nobody says anything, because Willaimson saves them and they win anyway. But do it against Australia and all of a sudden it's a crime... Give me a break!

But I still don't trust Oz batting and think odds for second test are wrong. I'm backing NZ to bounce back and level the series
Report pxb February 15, 2016 1:30 PM GMT
I'm backing NZ to bounce back and level the series

Big call. And not one I share, much as I would like to see BMc go out on a high.
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