Cricket
Quite a few draws at Wellington (some rain affected) and decent scores first bat. I'd say win toss and bat a significant advantage. Nz should prepare a pitch that has the ball moving as it's their major advantage. Some rain forecast day 5.
NZ pitches don't usually deteriorate much, so this could be that rare beast a draw lay to back.
Feb 14, 2016 -- 1:08AM, tomtimtum wrote:
These guys in 1 day mode
If it keeps working for them fair enough and some of the shots that have looked high risk aren't actually all that dangerous but they've both toyed with getting out playing shots they really, really didn't need to. If they start trying to slog Lyon I will be writing a strongly worded email to cricket NZ.
Feb 14, 2016 -- 1:10AM, tomtimtum wrote:
This pitch has just looked amazing for batting
It has. That, in a way, is why it would be so painful to get out when the bowlers really ought not be able to get you without helping them.
Feb 12, 2016 -- 1:38AM, jucel69 wrote:
Feb 12, 2016 -- 1:37AM, wondersobright wrote:draw not a runner NZ need to bowl out aus for under 200 for approx 20% of the time to justify their priceseems fair to menot involved pre match on this gameIt is, there have been some huge 2nd innings scores at this ground. That is why they leave so much grass on, because it flattens out so much in days 2.3.4 & 5
Feeling quite smug
Feb 14, 2016 -- 1:11AM, detraveller wrote:
Got my 4.4 lay matched...
Suspect mine has been too then. Glad I stayed up for this, although it remains entirely possible that I'd have done better staying in bed and sleeping, as I moved my 5 out of the way down to 3.5 which I'll regret if a couple of wickets fall soon.
Feb 14, 2016 -- 1:14AM, tomtimtum wrote:
Never even heard of a draw lay to back
Always a runner in NZ
Feb 14, 2016 -- 1:15AM, pxb wrote:
Lyon will start to dry up the runs and the batsmen will get more agressive against the seamers and bingo, wickets.
They've been playing close to a shot a ball to the seamers already, Guptil certainly. Not sure they'll necessarily be unable to score off Lyon either. Guess we'll see. I think Latham can go for periods of time without scoring without getting twitchy. Guptil I'm less sure.
Feb 14, 2016 -- 1:18AM, tomtimtum wrote:
Draw just not stopping
No, it's pulled in my 3.75 already too.
I've had my 3.75 matched before the drop so I'm hardly terribly exposed now: £150 red on results and £1.6k green on draw. Not quite sure whether I'm going to trust the pitch enough to bring my remaining lays down or whether I'm too scared of the irresponsibility of the batsmen.
How are the boys and girls doing now?
Feb 14, 2016 -- 1:21AM, the whizz kids wrote:
a bit of music for the train riders.
Bit of old school, not really my cup of char, but there are few that I like. Kinetic and Shelleys were massive when I was younger.
Feb 14, 2016 -- 1:19AM, DAN1974 wrote:
i want to lay the fook out of the this draw but it keeps falling
Think the market has slightly over reacted given how much time there is left but man is this deck flat? NZ don't need to bat anything like as well as you'd usually have to to save a game where you start your second innings nearly 400 behind with 8 sessions (and an over) left.
Now would be a great time for a wicket
Feb 14, 2016 -- 1:23AM, detraveller wrote:
how low will the draw go nefore it starts translating into a nz win?
Is an interesting question. It's too flat and Australia got too many runs for NZ to have much of a shot even assuming they bat both long and at least reasonably quickly. They're playing in such an attacking vein that it's worth a bit of thought over the tea interval though. They could finish today at 250/0-2 and be only 130 behind with two days left and the possibility of some more really quick scoring to come. Even going berserk there's only a pretty narrow set of scenarios that bring a win into the equation seriously from there though, all of them involving wrecking the Aussie second innings. Course that's analysing the game rather than the market.
Feb 14, 2016 -- 1:32AM, DAN1974 wrote:
ive been banging on about how flat this pitch is for ages if you look back through this thread, sometimes you've got to forget about the result and just trade the draw, on a pitch like this if you back the draw at any stage you should be able to get out with a profit.
was just thinking about you :)
Feb 14, 2016 -- 1:40AM, jucel69 wrote:
In a great position anyway but have more green on the draw
Was going to ask then felt I should do some betting. Backed the draw at 5.6 then 5.1 (missing 5.3) looking to catch 4.5 on the way back down.
Feb 14, 2016 -- 1:49AM, jucel69 wrote:
I'm backing the draw on every wicket now & trying to squeeze more out that way.
Copying that plan although from a position of a lot less strength, I rather suspect. Assume you're being quiet on the numbers out of modesty.
The draw was stuck at 5 for quite a while there so took some more 5s expecting it to go quite quickly quite soon. Otherwise this plan could be described as having got out of gaol but being keen to get back in.
Feb 14, 2016 -- 1:54AM, Fatslogger wrote:
Feb 14, 2016 -- 1:49AM, jucel69 wrote:I'm backing the draw on every wicket now & trying to squeeze more out that way.Copying that plan although from a position of a lot less strength, I rather suspect. Assume you're being quiet on the numbers out of modesty. The draw was stuck at 5 for quite a while there so took some more 5s expecting it to go quite quickly quite soon. Otherwise this plan could be described as having got out of gaol but being keen to get back in.
Needed a good win tbf, lost a few shekels recently on 20/20 & odis. This puts me back in the clover for Feb.
Feb 14, 2016 -- 1:57AM, detraveller wrote:
im not going back in on the draw. I got max 4.7 after fall of wicket on matchbook and that wasnt attracting.
No, not remotely enticing at that price.
There's a little bit of cash at 4.6 and 4.7 obstructing my 4.5 lays. May go down past 4.5 if they make tea, I suppose.
Feb 14, 2016 -- 1:58AM, jucel69 wrote:
Feb 14, 2016 -- 1:54AM, Fatslogger wrote:Feb 14, 2016 -- 1:49AM, jucel69 wrote:I'm backing the draw on every wicket now & trying to squeeze more out that way.Copying that plan although from a position of a lot less strength, I rather suspect. Assume you're being quiet on the numbers out of modesty. The draw was stuck at 5 for quite a while there so took some more 5s expecting it to go quite quickly quite soon. Otherwise this plan could be described as having got out of gaol but being keen to get back in.Needed a good win tbf, lost a few shekels recently on 20/20 & odis. This puts me back in the clover for Feb.
Had one of those days that starts with a huge loss then everything goes right. I even accidentally bet on the opposite side to the one I intended in the oldies T20 and ended up with a winner. Not that I want to give it back here.
Feb 14, 2016 -- 1:14AM, Fatslogger wrote:
Feb 14, 2016 -- 1:11AM, detraveller wrote:Got my 4.4 lay matched...Suspect mine has been too then. Glad I stayed up for this, although it remains entirely possible that I'd have done better staying in bed and sleeping, as I moved my 5 out of the way down to 3.5 which I'll regret if a couple of wickets fall soon.
So I was right in thinking I should have stayed in bed: not only did I move my lay at 5 out to 3.5 and not get that price matched I also backed draw when Guptill out and was too greedy in wanting 4.3 for some of my lay back off. Given that the price was hovering around there at tea very disappointed it didn't get caught up after tea, as there were several overs before Williamson was out.
I know it is a long shot but somebody here mentioned it's all
I need the money
Feb 14, 2016 -- 10:13PM, pxb wrote:
I hope the quake hasn't affected the next Test at Christchurch.I need the money
I assume you will be piling into Aus
Feb 14, 2016 -- 10:23PM, pxb wrote:
I always trade the draw pre-play. Sometimes with a bias towards one team. Sometimes not. Probably the former in this case.
I was just being a tad facetious after this horror show from the Kiwis.
NZ batting can be shocking at times.
I genuinely thought this would be a well balanced match.
Lucky enough I only bet 20% of usual match allocation, but have lost soundly for the first time in ages.
Coulda scratched this but was with Mrs 'Death last night so did not cash out in the early hours. There I said it. It wasn't my fault!
Seriously overestimated NZ
I hope Santner and Henry play next up and I wish somebody would tell me what happened to Neesham
NZ were truly awful.
Keep Craig as a batter? Got to try Henry.
Better to prepare a green top and hope for the best
I had the same thought. Prepare a green top and hope to win the toss (again).
Some rain in the forecast to make it interesting.
Feb 15, 2016 -- 1:12AM, Whisperingdeath wrote:
Well done everyone!NZ were truly awful. Keep Craig as a batter? Got to try Henry.Better to prepare a green top and hope for the best
Awful is a compliment. I managed a decent win but left a load behind.
Their shot selection wasn't even fit for village green cricket.
Jackson Bird was useless & Siddle never looks fit yet they still lost by a innings.
Bring back the WI all is forgiven.
Fair enough to get beaten comprehensively in Aus, but in your own backyard on a flat deck....
And I know I've said this before, but the Oz bowlers are much much better than they are given credit for. It's the dead Australian pitches that make them look ordinary. Have a look at the pitch maps for the Oz bowlers for this test match, their accuracy is extraordinary, including Lyon.
Some of them need to be arrested for impersonating Test batsmen!
Tbf they have made such good progress as a team and there have been some impressive individual performances as a cricket fan I hoped for better.
There is some truth in what you say Charlitz but not in this match! Aus would have cooked NZ regardless of the no ball . They were extremely dominant with just two bowlers. Mitch did ok but he was not bowling grenades. Hazelwood and Lyons are decent bowlers.
I am getting more than a little annoyed at heavy bats making up for inferior batting technique. Can you imagine how many Bradman, Headly and Hammond would have scored with today's bats on today's pitches? We are having discussions about whether Compton scores quick enough for Test Cricket!
I am Angry!
Lets be honest, Williamson and McCullum have been papering over some cracks in the NZ batting lineup for quite a while now. Especially Williamson, there's an over reliance on him. There's some ordinary players in their top 6, and Watling is a battler, so to see them crumble here is hardly a surprise. But... could you say with any confidence that Oz would have made 150 in 1st inns had McCullum won the toss? They have weaknesses in top 6 too. It was a huge toss to win (despite what market did after toss!)
But I still don't trust Oz batting and think odds for second test are wrong. I'm backing NZ to bounce back and level the series
