Cricket
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
These 462 comments are related to the topic:
New Zealand v Sri lanka 1st Test Dunedin
New Zealand v Sri lanka 1st Test Dunedin
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 462
|
By:
when I posted that Draw was about 4, Sl 46
|
|
By:
Tricky for BMc. That's only 3.15 an over, which looks easily gettable on this wicket. But weather will be threatening, if not already arrived, by the time NZ reach 440. TBH, I'd bet on the weather before SL, but my opinion may well change by lunch tomorrow.
|
|
By:
I've stuck a back of NZ in at 55s, at £50 in the hope of an aggressive declaration and a good Sri Lankan start. I think McCullum is rather likely to declare at lunch and even something like 20/0 off 5-6 overs will then see the price crash. Whether that's really value or not I'm less sure but it feels like a reasonable thing to have a go at.
|
|
By:
Have topped up the draw in the hope of a rain break sometime on Sunday.
Can't see SL making 450 even with a generous time allowance. New Zealand won't want to give the match away anyway so surely run rate will be taken into consideration. |
|
By:
Backing at over 50s the outcome itself doesn't really have to be much in the picture though, does it? It's much more about whether the market may move a decent amount in the right direction.
|
|
By:
True enough Fatslogger and worth a try as it costs nothing. Wasn't criticising your strategy, it's just very unlikely that you will be matched. Nothing ventured, nothing gained as they say. will try it myself.
|
|
By:
Pleasing drift on the hosts.
|
|
By:
Trying to persuade myself as much as anything, Foinavon. I try not to go for too many Hail Marys. Got my 55 matched anyway. Can't quite see why the draw's gone down to 3s and would be laying it if I hadn't already got red there with green elsewhere.
|
|
By:
Raining already in Dunedin, prices moving accordingly
 http://www.metservice.com/national/traffic-cams/dunedin |
|
By:
I shall only put up a couple of quid at 50 fatslogger, enjoying myself too much trading Draw/NZ.
Have a monster red now on SL so might have to reduce it before kick off in case there is a NZ collapse through trying too hard. |
|
By:
Or a B Mac funky declaration..
|
|
By:
Is that 55 on SL Fatslogger? You posted 50 @ 55 back of NZ which is why I thought it unlikely to be matched. Have cleared my red on SL now so all green and ready to play draw/NZ some more.
|
|
By:
That's on the cards too Injera, will make life interesting.
 |
|
By:
Indeed! So many times I've had a big red on the team chasing in the last innings, only to see their price plummet but ultimately lose.
Certainly at 50s it's tempting. Monday looks fine though and I'm sure NZ will not declare with less than 400. |
|
By:
It's why I love test matches (unless it's Australia V West Indies).
|
|
By:
SL price coming in a bit now. The more time lost the more likely they will be set a lower target.
|
|
By:
Can't see NZ doing anything else but bat till lunch or close to. If heavy showers start after lunch, we will see limited play for the rest of the day. SL would then have no chance of the win, but need to bat 98? overs for the draw on what should still be a good pitch. Maybe a 1 in 2 chance blocking. Their tail showed they can bat on this pitch.
|
|
By:
Dry weather and some sunshine on the traffic cams now. Wonder if we will have any rain at all.
|
|
By:
Can't make up mind what hell to do here.am green on draw and level on other outcomes.
|
|
By:
Rain forecast from midday with possibility of hail storm
|
|
By:
Rain also forecast from 4pm day 5 now as well
|
|
By:
Rain also forecast from 4pm day 5 now as well
I noticed that as well. NZ Met rather slack not updating their forecast text when new model output shows. |
|
By:
Would reckon that Sri lanka have a better than 2/1 chance of defending 2 sessions, but we don't know if all the predicted weather will materialise, or when the declaration will come. My green is weighted towards the draw at the moment. Could level up if wickets or rain force the NZ price out significantly.
|
|
By:
At this rate, NZ could bat past lunch. I'm starting to like the draw more and more.
|
|
By:
O my there is sunshine out there! Commentators saying heavy rain forecast for the evening. Oh please rain do come today.
|
|
By:
If they keep going at this rate they will have 450 in about 20 overs.
|
|
By:
Meant 450 lead in 20 overs time. They are trying to accelerate though so 450 likely to come before lunch assuming they don't lose a shed load of wickets.
|
|
By:
The market has gone off the draw a bit, with it going out to 4s. I'm tempted to have a bit of it but without any rain in immediate prospect there's quite a high chance of a declaration at lunch or perhaps slightly after and the new ball taking early Sri Lankan wickets. The draw would probably never recover from that unless a downpour or some really obdurate batting. Still feel the Kiwis should have this.
The speculative back of SL hoping for a pushy declaration and a good start isn't looking great according to the market, out to 65/70 now. |
|
By:
That's an interminable review when he's hit it (which the Hotspot hasn't shown because fielder in the way), which the third umpire seems not to have noticed. No ball tracking was available but he was also struck a mile outside off stump. Poor Latham hasn't been awarded the runs to get him his ton.
|
|
By:
http://www.metservice.com/maps-radar/rain-radar/southland
It looks like the rain wont even touch dunedin. |
|
By:
Well that caught everybody on the hop
|
|
By:
Wish I'd backed McCullum's funkiness a bit more. Not that I'm unhappy to have had 50 at 55 and 25 at 75 plus some residual green to work with. Just a question of how brave I am in trying to turn it into real money when I don't for a moment believe Sri Lanka will get 400.
Surprised the draw hasn't moved out a bit more, although suppose the market thinks they'll mostly just try to block it. With only 400 to get, unless it rains a lot it's actually slightly tough to draw from here unless SL lose a wicket every time they look like they might be able to get a move on. |
|
By:
Surprising declaration. 5+ sessions to get just 400. A decent start by SL and the market will panic.
|
|
By:
Surely weather is the only factor for the draw now? If it doesn't rain, hard to see this as a draw.
|
|
By:
Since Clarke retired there haven't been enough crazy test match captains but picking your man helps. Just wish I'd picked him harder then I could have cashed out all the backs and still had some huge SL green to lay off in stages if they did well plus a little left in the vanishingly unlikely event of an actual win. Anyway, let's concentrate on that draw lay. Can't be a draw from here without a lot of rain, can it?
|
|
By:
Looking black over Bill's mother!
|
|
By:
Transferred my green to NZ at 1.33. A lot less than I'd hoped for. Have similar sized red on SL so runniing a certain degree of risk.
|
|
By:
SL could get close to this. The track is still benign.
|
|
By:
Bloody hell, hate Aus wallet markets, the app is so bad at updating. The prices move and I'm stuck 10 minutes ago.
|
|
By:
Never listen to 'fatty' Smith re weather
|