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New Zealand v Sri lanka 1st Test Dunedin
New Zealand v Sri lanka 1st Test Dunedin
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Replies: 462
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This is a market from another dimension. Thank God I'm on the right side of it. Must have some folks seething.
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That was weird. Don't see how they could give Matthews out there.
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Hate to move the topic on from dogs but has anyone who's tracked the price overnight got details? I only followed for a session and the draw dropped like a stone just before and during lunch but seems awful low now. Sadly that's where I have my smallest green (£17) so limited capacity to lay without taking a big rain risk. Wish I'd kept my draw but seemed fair enough to lay off for a profit. Sri Lanka has a lot of work to do to save this test still, bearing in mind a tail that starts with Herera at 8 so 6 out is probably all out.
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Match will likely be determined by how well SL go against the new ball this morning. If they are still batting at lunch, draw likely, bar some Herath magic, which I don't expect on this pitch.
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I found the blip last night quite useful, first backing NZ at better prices then eliminating my red on the draw this morning. Have a big red on SL but can't see them being capable of winning when snailing along at 2 an over. There might be a session or three lost over the next three days so remaining cautious regarding exposure to the draw.
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Big drop in the draw when that rain started to show up on the radar.
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i could not understand the prices yesterday either with NZ drifting after two early wickets?? i layed NZ @1.28,and backed @ 1.56, so am happy with a small all green of £60, this tail of Sri Lanka looks weak, so two more wickets and they could be in trouble, but looking at the recent drift on NZ i'm guessing some weather about????
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Weather forecast says that its going to rain tommorow... and today there is a ppossibility of rain!!! maybe its a confused market now!!! It might get stable when the match starts!!
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Look at the model for precipitation for tomorrow though and there is no rain in it whatsoever. Those models also OVERSTATE the amount of rain that falls so I think the market is overreacting to rain that will not arrive. Maybe a few spots later on today. However am not in Dunedin and do not really know their weather that well so take what I say with a grain of salt. For me the new ball is key. Get one or two out early and a fragile? tail will be exposed. What is in NZ's favour is that SL have batted slowly and are still plenty of runs behind.
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Don't think weather will play much of a part this test. Weather forecasts for the North Island are always wrong this time of year, can't imagine it's any different for the South Island. Anyway, looks like only a small chance of a shower this evening and possible showers late tomorrow. Test hinges on this mornings session.
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Look at the model for precipitation for tomorrow though and there is no rain in it whatsoever.
Not the NZ Met model I am looking at. Those models also OVERSTATE the amount of rain that falls That's true for all the weather models. Not just NZ. |
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I didnt understand the flow of the market as draw fell down to 2.4 then suddenly increased to 2.96 and then again the fall to 2.5 .... Is this due to the rain conditions ?? cause the match is not in inplay and still so much drift!! Hence I checked the weather fore cast it says it will rain at around 3 but thats a lot of time for kiwis to break lanka!!
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Fair call pxb if you are looking at another. But this one is the one I follow, a mate from Uni years ago is one of their cheif forecasters and from time to time i call upon him for some "extra" forecasting. They are the pre-eminent forecasters in NZ but I do not say they are infallible.
http://www.metservice.com/towns-cities/dunedin |
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Tyco, that forecast is showing showers tomorrow. You might have a caching issue.
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Yeah I did see that pxb. .9mm from 2pm till 4pm and .6mm between 4 and 6pm. BUt those are the ones that are overstated by the models. They are derived from the computer. So I am pretty confident that at worst a session lost tomorrow. That does for me not give a draw price of 2.50, although I see it has moved back a bit again.
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Dunedin is in the rain shadow of an impressive mountain range and while the weather is coming from the West should be largely protected compared with the West coast.
Forecasters model a large number of future scenarios based on small changes in actual conditions then try to pick the most probable outcome.There is still a not insignificant probability of a different outcome to the one published unless conditions are very stable. I suppose what I'm saying is that forecasts in this part of the world are more and more unreliable the further out in time one goes. Forget that, I hope NZ win.  |
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Thats the start we needed
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yep, here we go!
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Day 3 Session 1 runs line currently Under/Over 64.5 runs
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Sri Lanka 198/5 (82.0). Going at 2.41 runs per over
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Run rates on Day 1: 4.54, Run Rate on Day 2: 2.51
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I think when you look at run rates its usually a good indicator of which team is on top
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I just saw an ad on the Cricinfo website, I didn't realize David Warner was a shelf stacker back in 2002.
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6 down
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SL still trail by 222 with 4 wickets in hand. Still think NZ will bat on even if they manage to have the option of sending back SL with follow on
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Bat 60 overs for 200 - 250 should be more than enough.
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They won't want to leave 400 or even 450 with two days left in the game, even if some of that may be lost to rain.
Not much going on for the bowlers at the moment. Can't really see backing the draw being a sensible way of trying to take advantage when game state says it's a lay though. |
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SL will be happy with a draw.
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Batting looks too easy here. It looks like the visiting team with once again escape with a littl help from rain. I think SL know that, hence playing for time since the start of the innings on such a good surface.
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Wondering what's a sensible point to back NZ for some more. Nibbled a bit of 1.38 but will go higher if these two continue to frustrate.
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I was watching the NZ price to see whether it would get tempting but it's crept up in reasonable proportion to the efforts of this pair. If anything, it ought to have moved a bit more, I think. Don't think it's out of the question that the tail holds out for long enough to make it difficult for NZ to get more than 4 sessions to bowl them out second time.
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I'm hoping to pick up enough on NZ now to green out on the next dip in their price, assuming there will be one.
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spots of rain on the camera lens just before lunch
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All red transferred to SL and off to bed. Hope when I wake up tomorrow they haven't accumulated a first innings lead.
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If SL do, I'd say it's a draw.
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i need 300 but they are going to fall short. sl batted to slowly.
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How long do NZ bat for do we think? I reackon for about 3 sessions (if they can last that long) and leave 5 odd sessions to bowl SL out?
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For what its worth, I think a sneaky Lay Draw, Back SL, is the bet at the moment. Think Baz will make them get about 440 in 140 overs and if that is the case the draw does not come into it. Caveat Emptor the weather......
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