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Need the local knowledge of Tyco to contribute to this!! Looks a better Test to trade than the one in Hobart. Pitch and weather conditions the key to a good draw lay for me! Will they leave it green as has been the way recently in NZ?
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I just looked through the last 3 tests at the ground. All of them ended in a draw after significant rain. The forecast for second, fourth and fifth day isn't good.
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Blackcaps are very hard to beat at home and the weather seems to intervene quite often. The bet for me is a lay of Sri Lanka but not at these prices. Hoping for a better price if SL win the toss and get off to a good start.
Trading the draw is a good game when there is weather about and this test might provide some entertainment. |
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The pattern at this ground looks to be, early wickets then good to bat on. If NZ win toss and bat, draw back to lay. If SL bat 1st then SL lay. Although NZ win toss and field wouldn't surprise me.
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Cheers Pxb and others. THe forecast is looking quite bad but in NZ the metservice generally forecast more rain than actually falls. Especially the computer models. My forecaster friend knows of this failure in the model but they have not yet rectified it.
I have no opinion yet, still too many days out and will not be in Dunedin for this one, rather too many commitments in Wellington so will generally be as blind as others not there. Still will be trading the game for a few of the days, think NZ short but probably about right as SL are not much chop here in NZ. Expect them to have trouble vs Southee, Bolt and Bracewell. |
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It always amuses me NZ Met tells kiwis what clothes to wear.
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Forecast is for some rain on 3 days and quite a lot on Sunday. I recall that rain on the radar to the SW of Dunedin tends to peter out to the odd shower by the time it gets to Dunedin.
The most important thing will be how well SL bat, and I agree with tyco that NZ seamers will cause them trouble. I expect NZ to win. The question is how many days it will take them and hence what prices we will see on the draw. |
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I see the forecast has improved for Dunedin from what it was yesterday. Not too concerned about the rain, think that 4 days should be enough for NZ to win this one. Too short for me to back NZ outright but will be concentrating more on gyrations in play. The draw may also have a bearing> From all accounts the pitch is a green one, but as we saw 2 years ago v the WI here that does not always mean its a great bowling track.
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Looks like the weather is predicted to go up the West side of the island and the mountains protect Dunedin from the worst. Tasmania might see more rain.
If it looks the same tomorrow, will consider a half stakes back of NZ as SL price is out with the fairies. |
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A lot will depend on the first day when wickets generally fall, before the pitch flattens out. If SL bat they could be all out by tea and a result in 3 days in prospect. OTOH NZ have made big scores batting first here.
Heavy rain that was forecast for Sunday, now just light showers. I expect enough rain to move the draw around, but not enough to prevent a result. |
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Forecast still changing. Now 'brief rain' Fri and Sat.
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I can't find a starting position in this game either. Could be a draw lay to back as NZ wickets tend to get better as the game evolves. You can trade some big draw positions in NZ i.e 10s into 3/4 happens quite often.
SL batting is transition and looks a bit flaky. Chandimal is just starting to put his hand up & mature, whilst Mathews is still the mainstay. The rest are a bit hit and miss tbh Strange to see SL in NZ again so quickly, there were only here last year for test matches |
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The last game here saw 1000/1 gubbing so one to be careful of. When the drizzle sets in, even if the radar is clear, it can persist for hours.
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I can remember that game well jucel69. Managed to get some draw at 30's with bookies, enough to make it worthwhile. Just heard on radio they think weather will be ok for all days. A bowl first wicket according to Craig Cumming (Otago stalwart) and if sun about could be ok for batting on after lunch. Pitch is green but its the type that will assist with pace and bounce, I think Boult and Southee are going to like this. SL were not much chop last year, actually this year they were playing a test at the basin and without Sangakarra their batting will be even leaner. Who knows the 1.59 on NZ may be tempting come day 1. Will be interesting to see what happens if SL win the toss though....
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NZ Met has some rain forecast every day. With contradictory statements that meteorologists specialize in. Like,
'Fine, but a few afternoon showers' Looks like a fair number of interruptions and more than a few overs lost. As I said earlier, it will depend on how well SL bat as to whether the draw is a runner or not. |
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Thanks for your comments about the weather Tyco and pxb. Managed to get some 1.59 on NZ earlier. Still only half as much as I would like so will wait for the price to recover again.
Last year I recall you posted a link to the incomparable Dan Corbett, Tyco. Is he still giving the local forecasts? |
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Could be a draw lay to back as NZ wickets tend to get better as the game evolves.
And NZ forecasts tend to change. |
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SL win toss (Brendan loses again) NZ bat. Could be an interesting morning.
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SL into 7. Market expecting wickets. Not so sure myself.
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I think you might be right pxb, it does not look like a minefield!
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SL bowling getting smacked around already, and I don't expect much from Herath first 3 days. Not looking good for SL.
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I like the look of young latham, not sure about Guptil. Looks like another flat track bully like Taylor and MugCullum
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Looks like a NZ win or draw at this early stage. Batting will be ok days 2 and 3 so SL could hold out...
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Woah woah woah Black caps, nice and easy, not this 5 runs an over stuff.
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This deck normally just gets flatter and flatter.
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Batting is not their strongest suit at the moment and you have to worry about this bowling! Will need a big one from Matthews or Chandimal for them to have any chance
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why are markets not yet available on this game?
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Good luck guys. I am not staying up for this. can't see past NZ but as I am not sleeping with a weather girl I am out for now! Is it sad to watch cricket in bed, should I be watching porn? That rhetorical!
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you need to use the left hand column
cricket nz sl test match match odds it is on the old site and you have to transfer shekels to Australian wallet to bet! |
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Still think weather will play a role in this match.
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Hopefully! Nobody enjoys rain at a test match like we doGrin
Too true. |
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On the draw for now. Can't back NZ at these odds.
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Yeah me too, lay NZ back draw for mine is the play (for now)
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see the forecast now has not rain at all for the 5 days.
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I still think rain a prospect Sat/Sunday.
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Maybe but remember that the NZ metservice overestimate the chance of rain. One only needs to look to the 10 day forecasts.
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Maybe but remember that the NZ metservice overestimate the chance of rain.
Is it the models or the meteorologists overestimate rain? I think it's the former and the meteorologists might be over compensating. Have a look at the rain forecast, which should be direct model output. |
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MetService pretty much a waste of time. You guys need to watch/listen to Phil Duncan, chief meteorologist at Weatherweatch.co.nz. He's as reliable as they come and he's saying there'sd basically no chance of rain this test
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