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The Ashes, 1st Test at Cardiff
The Ashes, 1st Test at Cardiff
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got a link for that? All I can see is a full day of rain.
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Met office saying rain most of Sunday.....who knows
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why would you want the headache of laying 30s the draw when possible rain for most of the day on Sunday !!!
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given the £1b that the met-office receive annually to predict the weather for the united kingdom, they are probably one of the worst national forecasters, you would have thought the Tories might have cut their budget as they are hopeless, rather than taking more money from the poor !!! essentially, after my rant, anything could happen on Sunday with the weather, or England could just bowl Australia out in a day, and we all need not worry
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if you look at the bbc forecast for the uk as a whole, theres virtually no rain forecast anywhere in the entire country on sunday. i trust that about 2,000 times more than the individual place forecasts.
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The test match is being played in Cardiff not over the UK, and the BBC suggests light rain all day !!! but have posted my thoughts on them
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the place forecast is basically a guess or current estimate on where a band of rain will hit. it may hit somewhere completely different, blow through quickly, peter out into nothing. if rain is forecast all over the uk, theres a good chance it will hit. but its not, theres a tiny band forecast and theyve decided it will be right over cardiff. 90% of the time, they guess wrong.
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Does look like persistent drizzle for much of Sunday. I'd say a minimum of 120 overs left (minus overs lost for slow over rates). A draw just possible.
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I look at the weather forecast maps, and that band of rain has hardly moved in the forecast for 3 days. Which doesn't mean it's right, but it is at least consistent.
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they get cardiff right more often than most places, but i still think that its unlikely to rain to any great degree. games get rained off in cardiff when the whole west is covered in a huge rain band. from what ive seen, that isnt the forecast. the only real way of knowing, is looking for that band of rain on the radar on saturday night. see how big it is, see where it is heading, see whats behind it.
but right now, weve got a whole day tomorrow to worry about. theres clearly a band hitting cardiff tomorrow night, but id bet its probably gone before sunday morning. |
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get laying the draw then. Down into 18 now!
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i would do, but ive already layed it. game will probably be over tomorrow anyway.
possible extra half hour too. |
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the accuweather forecast for sunday is 'variable clouds with a couple of showers, mainly early in the day' its hardly noahs ark stuff is it??
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Doubt we'll lose more than 20-30 overs but you just never know.
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I could not believe the price of the draw at the close today, 38's was a joke price, we have decent winds forecast, the Severn Estuary has a habit of attracting inclement weather, & whilst tomorrow should be fine, Sunday could bring anything.
If Oz lose anything less than five wickets tomorrow, then the draw is looking great value even at 24's |
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there is a game of 180 overs even if we loose 30 over game then even 150 overs are in hand and total score is 412 so result is for sure, though i dough that it will go in aussies side but still result is for sure and any price for draw or any back towards draw is a waste .
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This price on the Aussies to win is madness. Should be another 2 zeroes at the end of it
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Honestly if Australia make it to Sunday I will be surprised or at the very least have only a few wickets in hand. Gone are the days where batsmen will grind out the bowling, just not in the nature of these batsmen except for perhaps Rogers. England will have plenty of chances today, just a question of whether they are good enough to take them.
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But then again it just might be pocket talking
 See you chaps soon |
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From a final end game perspective, then you are correct, the chances of this being a draw are somewhat remote, however from a trading perspective, (which is where most people are active the exchange), its not for the faint hearted, which is why it traded at less that 20's overnight.
Clearly, with no stoppages, this game will not get past lunch tomorrow. Right now, ts looking quite grey here over the estuary, however that will help the bowlers, so I think that any stoppages will be offset by improved bowling conditions. I will be picking the draw up on the loss of a wicket, or if it gets back out to 38's before the start, purely because I like to be on the right side of uncertainty at big prices. |
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Any light rain in cardiff clear by 1pm so no chance of a draw. I still feel oz odds to be nearer evens at some point after lunch.
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I agree, laying England is the value, a first second or third wicket partnership of 70+ runs, or a rain stoppage or two, & you are in the box seat.
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1 or 2 early wickets and england's price tumbles. 1.4 is terrible value to lay.
England should be 1.1 or less, deteriorating pitch, overcast, weak batting side, england full of confidence... this could be over in 2/3 sessions. If Aussies do find some grit and weather worsens tomorrow, there is is sniff of the draw, but thats a long way away. No chance knocking 410 off on there. |
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agree but if 40 odd runs without a wicket u will see england trading at 2 or so
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if the match goes on to sunday means ausssi will bat for 90 overs and the way all the three innings playes above 4 runrate they are near about 360 at the end of the day ....even if u take 3.5 then they are having less than 80 runs to chase tomm. though a very very big task but thats the game set as of now
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wait and back england even if they dont win u will get back all the odds again with every wickets gets down
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one big hundred and all others hang around that can show a way for aussies
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1.40 is a value bet for the final result, but as a trading position it is a lay, if England do not pick up a wicket in the first six overs then watch it run away like a scalded cat.
Any comparisons to test match run chases in the past are negated by the fact that Oz just have to bat to win. I would not go as strong as saying England win this game ten times out of eleven, but its seven out of eight. The only way I could cope with laying Oz or the draw at these prices, is to make my bet & then go sailing for the day. The beauty of the Betfair Exchange, little wonder Ray Winstone's paymasters are so into pushing cashing out & letting the punter be 'in control'.... |
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i prefer they should not even look at score board just keep on batting as long as they can if they bat for 4 session they will win this game .
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i can see a good opening from aussies but i dont think they can make them to win ..7/10 in such a situation team batting last to loose
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be prepare urself for lots of oo-and aa hs
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agreed cricketnut, a brave trader would be backing england 1.4 !!!!
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You are being selective about my comment, probably why I rarely post on the forum :0
I said 'Any comparisons to test match run chases in the past are negated by the fact that Oz just have to bat to win.' I am saying that is what the market will be thinking, which is what you have said. I could not be any more clear in saying 'I would not go as strong as saying England win this game ten times out of eleven, but its seven out of eight.' My comments are based on a trading position for the next session, I bet on a session by session basis, not on the final result. & As for being 'astounded' any time you want to lay me 100/1 on Oz winning from here, just come find me & I will be happy to dance with you, I will be truly astounded if you wish to tango ;) |
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I am not having a go at you for any of your comments and no I am not willing to lay you 100/1, but I like to bet for value and Australia are no value whatsoever, unless the odds are over 100, because despite the time left, Australia chances of winning this game are around 100. Now obviously if rain comes into play tomorrow, for 3-4 hours, then Australia then have the same chance of winning the game and England have less chance of winning this game, with the draw then coming back into play. The fact that England have played very close to their peak in this game and Australia have played well below anything near to their average, says that won't change today.
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1.4 ENG much more like it. 1.5 was silly. I had 1.35 in mind so probably nearing the right price.
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As others have said 100/1 not out of the question and would imagine ENG nearer evens in that scenario.
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I think if the ball does not swing then Warner must atttack it. If they can smash 100 off the first 25 overs or so when the ball is hard they can create a panic in betting markets and that is where the chance to eek out a few more shekels will be.
Unfortunately through inept betting practices I shall not be able to take advantage of that particular scenario as I had to cough up to cover England! The way the new ball swung yesterday really threw me for a loop. I genuinely expected Aus to bat way after lunch and be able to trade back my draw after I switched from a pure Aus lay strategy. c'est la vie. The dismissal of Twatto was an amazing hinge in the battle! Michael Holding was going nutso about losing a review for a ball that hit the stumps. It was a harsh decision from the Umpire in that it was a marginal call and the hit was well down the pitch but ultimately right. That opened up the tail but England picked the right ball becaus it hooped around and was impossible to stay at the crease. If they get a similar ball today with perhaps some cloud cover too ( it was sunny yesterday! ) then I expect a similar rout. I shall be looking to back England if people run for cover. Only one result likely for me and I have the safety of the draw covered. |
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How would you price it if Aus get to say 50 & 100 without loss?
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Aus would become favs in market
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