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OzBattla
01 Jan 15 23:39
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Date Joined: 29 May 06
| Topic/replies: 704 | Blogger: OzBattla's blog
Weather shouldnt be a factor here.

Last 10 tests here 8 results with 2 draws. Perhaps surprisingly 6 of those 8 winners have batted 2nd. 6 from those 10 matches the team that won the toss has sent the other side in to bat, with South Africa usually sending the other team in if winning the toss.

The average runs for the team batting first over last 10 matches is 300. In those ten if you take out the high of 580 and the low of 45 its 297.

Obviously I think South Africa win but looking for a small lay at the 1.25 with a view to it trading higher.

GL All.
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Report Whisperingdeath January 4, 2015 2:26 PM GMT
actually just another mistake by a WI batsman
Report Whisperingdeath January 4, 2015 2:36 PM GMT
oh my, I think I need to get out of this quick. Looks bad for WI
Report Whisperingdeath January 4, 2015 2:41 PM GMT
that was poor batting too
Report Whisperingdeath January 4, 2015 4:05 PM GMT
well that went better than I feared.  WI were backed up to a hundred, I think up to 70 before they had conceded a first innings lead. I just felt that was cavalier and careless. As can be seen they are still in the game and a bit of reality may sink in tomorrow. The only question for me is when and how will WI throw this away and can I curb my greed enough to take a respectable green?
Report Tractor January 4, 2015 4:42 PM GMT
Anyone any ideas what the weather will do tomorrow?
Report Injera January 4, 2015 5:25 PM GMT
Could be some rain but hard to predict...

Windies need a 250 lead to justify their price. Even then I would fancy SA to win easily. Pitch is fine, in fact it's a belter to bat on.

Anyone else mute the comms? So much inane chat and don't get me started on the endless replays.....
Report Whisperingdeath January 4, 2015 5:46 PM GMT
Injera I don't think the pitch is fine!

I think it is a diffiicult pitch to score freely on ( unless you are ABV ) but once in it should be difficult to dislodge a batter although there is the odd low bounce and it is taking spin.

There is little sideways movement and many of the batsmen have given their wickets away plus 3 run outs so both sides should have batted longer and for more runs but there is an underlying threat that the pitch may break up and that is what is interesting.

There may be a shower but as usual the forecast with pictures of rain induces a belief that it will rain for hours. 40-60% chance of precipitation means there may be a quick shower.

I am not sure if it is possible but if WI set in excess of 200 ( 250 ideally ) they stand a pretty good chance imho. Now I have to wait until the morning.  I will not be able to sleep for thinking of the many ways WI can stuff this up. This is a Ship pitch and he is due a score. His stumping in the first innings was unfathomable.

This could be an exciting finish
Report Injera January 4, 2015 5:55 PM GMT
Fair points Whispering.

Looking at the team scores and number of batters to get in I'd say it's a belter!

I got rid of my huge Windies green this morning and regretting it now..not cos I think they'll win but because they may well trade in single figures which would be v.annoying!!!

Hoping for a bit of rain ad draw price crash which would suit me fine.

I just love test cricket. Happy
Report pxb January 4, 2015 6:36 PM GMT
Maybe 1 or 2 brief showers.

Missed my chance to green up before play yesterday.

Can't see WI winning this, and laying the draw for a bit.
Report Whisperingdeath January 4, 2015 9:12 PM GMT
interesting change in weather forecastsHappy

Expecting brilliant sunshine howeverCry

This will put the cat amongst the pidgeons in the morning. Still a little surprised the draw has come in so much. Maybe someone knows more than me. Still plenty of time for WI to hoist the white flag.
Report kid January 5, 2015 2:50 AM GMT
Am laying South Africa
Report pxb January 5, 2015 5:07 AM GMT
Strange. Big weather panic, and now prices are back to where they were before.

Never like to see 'drizzle' in the forecast for a cricket match.
Report pxb January 5, 2015 5:55 AM GMT
And another weather panic.
Report Injera January 5, 2015 8:14 AM GMT
That is one massive draw crash. Got to 25s when Windies lost their second wicket.

8s by the close and now 6/4. Very rare to see the market caught out so much.
Report Injera January 5, 2015 8:19 AM GMT
People reading cricinfo as they wake up are laying even harder..
Report Whisperingdeath January 5, 2015 11:38 AM GMT
what an earth is going on?

My nocturnal habits cost me an early rise and missed out on laying the draw for 1.6-1.7. Bought my SA red at 2.12 TFFT!

Now going to have a cheeky punt on WI at 70's!

Ok latest is inspection at 2pm so maybe play by 3pm? still enough time for WI to lose this game.
Report Whisperingdeath January 5, 2015 12:03 PM GMT
warm and humid. should be some play. the defecit is wiped out so SA will have to match whatever WI score.

Unlikely as this sounds if WI get bowled out they have set a toatl and are in the game? This is quite exciting. Cleared my red but have not booked any profit yet.
Report SecondComing January 5, 2015 12:10 PM GMT
WhisperingMug, are you backing Australia tomorrow?
Report Whisperingdeath January 5, 2015 12:11 PM GMT
Laugh

You been on the grog again Second?
Report slip5 January 5, 2015 12:12 PM GMT
If west indies can some how put on another 230 runs i dont think south africa will go for total in 55 overs, they will bat for draw
Report Whisperingdeath January 5, 2015 12:17 PM GMT
I like to go against the short odds on two relatively matched teams. Not saying India will win but they could put in a good batting performance. Small bet India at 6, back draw at 3.73, lay Convicts at 1.84!

I have missed out a bit recently but been betting gingerly and not always watching the games at the right times but these last few games since boxing days have shown the merit of opposing odds on favourites when teams are matched ( to some degree ) and also heavy odds on ( 1.24 on day 1 ).  That doesn't mean the favourite doesn't win but it does throw up some opportunites.

anyway Second you know betting on your lot would make me physically sick before the match starts. I have to do it during the game while nobody is lookingWink!
Report BJT January 5, 2015 12:17 PM GMT
45 minutes til play?  How many overs does that make?
Report BJT January 5, 2015 12:20 PM GMT
Laid the draw anyway.  Hoping it rises heaps more before play, and then a couple of quick wickets would go down a fcuking treat....  LoveLove
Report artful dodger January 5, 2015 12:20 PM GMT
Start at 1pm...53 overs if it doesn't rain!
Report Whisperingdeath January 5, 2015 12:20 PM GMT
I expect to see WI skittled for well less than a 200 lead! 200 ahead would have to impact heavily upon the odds. I think either side could be bowled out here in less than two sessions. The pitch is wearing. It should be seamer friendly this afternoon.

53 overs cut off time 4.30 but another half hour if they have not been bowled by 4.30. That is enough cricket for a result!

Where do we go from here?
Report BJT January 5, 2015 12:22 PM GMT
143 overs left then?  Max?
Report SecondComing January 5, 2015 12:23 PM GMT

Jan 5, 2015 -- 6:11AM, Whisperingdeath wrote:


You been on the grog again Second?


I am a non-drinker, it's a well known fact

Report Whisperingdeath January 5, 2015 12:24 PM GMT
are you winding me up?

That is unAustralian!
Report BJT January 5, 2015 12:32 PM GMT
Think the whole "Australian" thing is worked out on averages.  Be sure I have covered at least 12 forumites tonight in their quota.....  BlushBlush
Report Whisperingdeath January 5, 2015 12:32 PM GMT
back to the game. weather set fair for tomorrow, should be a result. WHat can feck this up?

A wet ball this afternoon? Wi score some runs? 50 over 125 runs by close for how many wickets down?

Not sure where this game is going.

SA must be favourites for now until or if WI score some runs then there will be a crossover point although nobody would appear to think WI have a scooby ( except me! ).

I think an even green would be the best way to go about this and dreams of riches saved for another day!
Report pxb January 5, 2015 12:33 PM GMT
Could have taken a bath with those weather gyrations, but came out with a decent all green position.

Counting myself very lucky.
Report BJT January 5, 2015 12:38 PM GMT
Based on the assumption that WI are borderline unproffessional in regards to test matches, I can't imagine they will be that interested in playing today when the weather dictates they do.  Think they lose a couple quickly before maybe getting their minds into it. 

Either way, worth a little gamble that they lose a couple of quick wickets, or at least until we see what the ball is going to do.
Report Injera January 5, 2015 12:42 PM GMT
Pitch will be bone dry. Not a drop will have got on it. May be swing, who knows.

Damp outfield won't help SA.

Draw price very short given WI are 0-2....
Report BJT January 5, 2015 12:48 PM GMT
Braithwaite 16 off 45 balls, off the mark with a 7.  9 off the other 44 balls...  lol
Report BJT January 5, 2015 12:59 PM GMT
Hat trick please......  LoveLove
Report BJT January 5, 2015 1:02 PM GMT
Kidding himself.  Right?  1 ball, already delayed it 2 minutes for a helmet change?  ffs
Report BJT January 5, 2015 1:03 PM GMT
Is it not up to the batsman to be ready to face when the bowler is ready?  When did those rules change?

Either way, wicket imminent IMO......
Report Whisperingdeath January 5, 2015 1:04 PM GMT
Morne bowling well. WI need to get that ball wet quick!
Report BJT January 5, 2015 1:07 PM GMT
135 km/h?  Must be boggy run up.....
Report BJT January 5, 2015 1:08 PM GMT
ffs
Report BJT January 5, 2015 1:08 PM GMT
Dropped.  Tough tough, but ffs
Report Injera January 5, 2015 1:11 PM GMT
Not worried about a draw are you BJT?
Report BJT January 5, 2015 1:13 PM GMT
Not right now.  Only position is laying it.  Day and a half away from worrying about that.  Plan to be long gone by then.....  Love
Report BJT January 5, 2015 1:14 PM GMT
LoveLove   There you go......
Report Injera January 5, 2015 1:14 PM GMT
Great trading match!
Report BJT January 5, 2015 1:15 PM GMT
Near made as much there as got taken away from me on the tie in the BBL.  Another wicket and fcuk the BBL  ExcitedExcited
Report Injera January 5, 2015 1:19 PM GMT
Could always back the tieSilly
Report BJT January 5, 2015 1:19 PM GMT
Samuels a non walking wicket here...  lol
Report BJT January 5, 2015 1:19 PM GMT

Jan 5, 2015 -- 7:19AM, Injera wrote:


Could always back the tie


Of course, but always bad value.  In the long run best off letting it ride.....

Report BJT January 5, 2015 1:24 PM GMT
ffs
Report BJT January 5, 2015 1:25 PM GMT
Be 10.00 draw here inside 20 minutes.....
Report Injera January 5, 2015 1:26 PM GMT
Yes but it sucks when you've worked hard to get a hefty green and it's voided.

Agree it's a difficult call though..

I think Windies may play a few shots here. Even Shiv. Somehow have to get a 150 lead.
Report BJT January 5, 2015 1:27 PM GMT
And probably get it, but will lose a couple wickets quickly here.  IMO
Report BJT January 5, 2015 1:28 PM GMT
Generally, by the time you get a hefty green, you are looking at 1.10-1.15 tie.  Fcuk that, IMO.
Report BJT January 5, 2015 1:29 PM GMT
How.  How.  How in fcuk, is Chanderpaul a real thing?
Report Injera January 5, 2015 1:36 PM GMT
I'm not following the Big Bash but when I do T20s I often get a sneaky bet on the tie when it's 15-20s just as a very cheap form of insurance.
Report BJT January 5, 2015 1:48 PM GMT
Very cheap is the issue though.  Percentage wise, it is not in your favour, as such, costing you money.  At least, in the long run costing you money.  May feel good when it is a tie, but giving up 10% of your profits when it isn't a tie, 20 times, and the 1 time it is a tie cashing in, makes little sense to me.
Report BJT January 5, 2015 1:49 PM GMT
Besides.  Sometimes you need something to bitch and moan about.  Sometimes need to let something out....  ExcitedExcited
Report Whisperingdeath January 5, 2015 1:56 PM GMT
wow what a tense session!

Fantastic test Match cricket. You just know Samuels is going to duck into one that does not get up and will be out lbw to a half tracker!

I think WI have 4 batsmen here who can score some runs and occupy the crease. If these guys manage to push the lead to 150 between them it might liberate the lower order to have a crack. Must be nervous for both sets of fans
Report Injera January 5, 2015 2:00 PM GMT
Happy

Should have been given out.. It only bounced once.
Report Whisperingdeath January 5, 2015 2:11 PM GMT
This is going to be glorious but short from Samuels!
Report Injera January 5, 2015 2:11 PM GMT
Intriguing stuff.

Brilliant from Marlon to not allow the spinner to settle.
Report BJT January 5, 2015 2:11 PM GMT
Hmmm.  Got to the pitch, and the turn near fcuked him both times.  Result imminent.  Surely
Report Injera January 5, 2015 2:12 PM GMT
Shiv didn't help Marlon in the first innings and not here either.
Report Whisperingdeath January 5, 2015 2:30 PM GMT
OMG watching India play football on the SCG must be making Aus trembleLaugh. Imagine if they lost to India it would like being savaged by a sheep!
Report BJT January 5, 2015 2:33 PM GMT
Sheep are pretty hardcore.  Wrestled a few myself....  LoveLove
Report Whisperingdeath January 5, 2015 2:34 PM GMT
This is like watching DR Who!

I hope he realises he can pork a few singles just as easy now he has spread the field!
Report BJT January 5, 2015 2:36 PM GMT
Beautiful to watch IMO.  Money starting to flow.
Report Injera January 5, 2015 2:42 PM GMT
Commies reluctant to praise him. Just waiting for him to throw it away.He's playing a brilliant innings.

He's singlehandedly giving Windies a chance to win tomorrow.
Report BJT January 5, 2015 3:06 PM GMT
Wasn't aware it was still Christmas.  But merry fcuking christmas to me.  This must have been what trading was like when Betfair first come on the scene.....
Report Injera January 5, 2015 3:09 PM GMT
Marlon restoring some pride in Windies cricket. Great to see a batsman mix quality defence with brute force!
Report Whisperingdeath January 5, 2015 3:24 PM GMT
well I think he was right not to let harmer settle. you knew it would happen but he has played well. the pitch is tricky until you are well set. he would also have put harmer under pressure by taking easy singles for low risk but he set his stall out.
Report BJT January 5, 2015 3:25 PM GMT
And back into the big money lays.  LoveLove
Report Whisperingdeath January 5, 2015 4:05 PM GMT
I could watch this guy bowl all day every day, fantastic!
Report Whisperingdeath January 5, 2015 4:07 PM GMT
I thought that was out!
Report Whisperingdeath January 5, 2015 4:08 PM GMT
tailing!
Report BJT January 5, 2015 4:08 PM GMT
lol.  Hit him outside the line and going further away.  Looked closer live.  Actually, think I just noticed his reaction more than anything.
Report BJT January 5, 2015 4:09 PM GMT
And yeah, one of the best.
Report BJT January 5, 2015 4:10 PM GMT
Do they want to take the new ball even?
Report Injera January 5, 2015 4:14 PM GMT
So often the 4th day is the best. The game speeds up (even when it rains for 3 hours!) and just when you think there's a chance of a draw....boom!

I guess Marlon divides opinion but I always love to see a player go for the high risk shots because it's great entertainment. Let's face it, they had to score quickly to have any chance of setting a decent target tomorrow.
Report BJT January 5, 2015 4:15 PM GMT
Take a single, 5 balls at the newbie.  Against Steyn.  Brilliant tactics.  IMO  LoveLove
Report BJT January 5, 2015 4:21 PM GMT
Won't need the new ball here.  Crazy to take it IMO
Report Dragon32 January 5, 2015 4:24 PM GMT
WI players really are nothing more than a bunch of thick feckers
Report BJT January 5, 2015 4:25 PM GMT
Near 2:30 in the morning here, with the new year test on soon, and can't go to bed.  This is the easiest money I have ever made.
Report Kelly January 5, 2015 4:25 PM GMT
Last 15 minutes proves ( if proof were needed } that there is a brain dead element within the West Indian psyche at the moment .
Report Injera January 5, 2015 4:26 PM GMT
Shiv red inker - he'll love that.

Staggering shot by Taylor..
Report Whisperingdeath January 5, 2015 4:26 PM GMT
true Injera,

it's a tough call but look what has happened since he has gone. he could have porked his way to his hundred then started pushing once WI were in a safer position but if that one had cleared the rope what would have happened next?

All too predictable I guessWink
Report Whisperingdeath January 5, 2015 4:28 PM GMT
Samuels fell at 202
Report Whisperingdeath January 5, 2015 4:30 PM GMT
sorry 182 but this is carnage. Like I said yesterday, tricky conditions unless you are in
Report Injera January 5, 2015 4:32 PM GMT
Yes, it's hard to go down a gear or 2 once you've accelerated. He put Windies in a decent position and then precipated a collapse.

I reckon Windies wanted 275 and 70 overs tomoz. That would only happen if someone took the game by the throat.
Report prasanth1985 January 5, 2015 4:33 PM GMT
any chance of rain tom
Report Whisperingdeath January 5, 2015 4:35 PM GMT
another not out for Shiv no doubt!
Report Injera January 5, 2015 4:39 PM GMT
That's pitiful from Shiv.

He has history of doing that. Why take the run???
Report Whisperingdeath January 5, 2015 4:40 PM GMT
well I am glad Shiv got run out. Why on earth take a single off the 5th ball? Playing for a not out again is shameful. He could have had a dart at harmer for an extra 15-20 runs.
Report Injera January 5, 2015 4:51 PM GMT
As Key said, he's done it all his career. Seriously bad.
Report Whisperingdeath January 5, 2015 4:52 PM GMT
I am glad he called it too! Had to be said!
Report FredRescue January 5, 2015 6:55 PM GMT
Bit of a myth regarding Chanderpaul.

Almost half of his not outs are in incomplete/declared innings.

Of his not outs where Windies have been bowled out, the last three wickets have averaged 45, compared to overall test figure of 50. Given the walking wickets Windies have had in recent times and Calypso collapsos, does not appear anything out of the ordinary.
Report Whisperingdeath January 5, 2015 9:57 PM GMT
stats don't tell thefyll story. He is a red inker in my book! even if he is a great player and has calypso collapso all around him. He is supposed to nurse the strike and score when opportune particularly if those around him are falling. He doesn't do that. he just sticks around ( respect ) but nothing above and beyond.
Report Injera January 6, 2015 8:46 AM GMT
Agreed Whispering.

On a number of occasions he's taken a single off the first ball of an over when batting with numbers 10 and 11. It's been going on for years as is his refusal to bat higher in the order.
Report Darkforcesofevil January 6, 2015 9:02 AM GMT
Draw finally the correct price on here. gawd knows why it was 110/120 last night
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