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FredRescue
16 May 14 20:00
Joined:
Date Joined: 07 Jul 12
| Topic/replies: 5,115 | Blogger: FredRescue's blog
Who wins? Wink
Pause Switch to Standard View Betfair odds vs. WASP
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Report FredRescue May 16, 2014 8:00 PM BST
WASP more volatile than Betfair odds Surprised
Report HansUlrichApfelStrudel May 20, 2014 6:03 PM BST
WASP 172
Report eagles33 May 21, 2014 12:58 AM BST
i was looking at wasp tonight when i had a bet on the england game. it was one of the reasons i didnt bottle out. a good aid i think
Report toffee87 May 21, 2014 9:05 AM BST
it was favouring Sri lanka a lot more than the bookies

At one point England were given a 9% chance of winning but Sri Lanka were 1.35 - if I've understood WASP correctly, Sri Lanka should have been about 1.1
Report FredRescue May 25, 2014 11:58 AM BST
Is WASP decided before or after toss?
Report joe39 May 25, 2014 12:11 PM BST
Before I think, it's a measure of what "the average team" should be getting for a par score, followed by asking the commentators.
Report FredRescue May 25, 2014 3:33 PM BST
England currently 20% chance on Betfair and 3% on WASP Crazy

Mug the bloke who sold WASP if it is actually any good
Report wondersobright May 25, 2014 3:46 PM BST
totally flawed piece of software, should be dropped immediately
Report BJT May 27, 2014 12:22 PM BST

May 25, 2014 -- 9:33AM, FredRescue wrote:


England currently 20% chance on Betfair and 3% on WASP Mug the bloke who sold WASP if it is actually any good


So your point is that it is a gold mine following it? 
Who was closer by the way, Wasp at 3% or BF at 20%?

Report bf trader May 27, 2014 1:28 PM BST
Surprised Sky have fallen for it. It's pretty useless and less accurate so far than many of my own rejected models in both its outputs. Thankfully cricket predicting / probability / pricing is a little more complicated than WASP gives it credit for - and this is precisely why it is possible to obtain a consistent edge I/R.

On other note Sky presenters really need to learn the difference between average and par.
Report wondersobright May 27, 2014 1:58 PM BST

May 27, 2014 -- 6:22AM, BJT wrote:


May 25, 2014 --  3:33PM, FredRescue wrote:England currently 20% chance on Betfair and 3% on WASP Mug the bloke who sold WASP if it is actually any goodSo your point is that it is a gold mine following it?  Who was closer by the way, Wasp at 3% or BF at 20%?


imo betfair was much closer with 20%

the outcome of the match cannot cloud your judgement, it is the long term you have to consider

Report BJT May 27, 2014 3:03 PM BST

May 27, 2014 -- 7:58AM, wondersobright wrote:


May 27, 2014 -- 12:22PM, BJT wrote:May 25, 2014 --  3:33PM, FredRescue wrote:England currently 20% chance on Betfair and 3% on WASP Mug the bloke who sold WASP if it is actually any goodSo your point is that it is a gold mine following it?  Who was closer by the way, Wasp at 3% or BF at 20%?imo betfair was much closer with 20%the outcome of the match cannot cloud your judgement, it is the long term you have to consider


Unfortunately there is no long term when it comes to Englands batting.  LaughLaugh

Report wondersobright May 27, 2014 5:11 PM BST
lol
Report FredRescue May 28, 2014 10:51 PM BST
JT
27 May 14 12:22
Joined:
30 Oct 04
| Topic/replies: 16,822 | Blogger: BJT's blog

    May 25, 2014 -- 3:33PM, FredRescue wrote:


    England currently 20% chance on Betfair and 3% on WASP Mug the bloke who sold WASP if it is actually any good


So your point is that it is a gold mine following it?
Who was closer by the way, Wasp at 3% or BF at 20%?




The point is if it is accurate and so far divergent from the betting odds only a mug would sell it to Sky.
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