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Betfair odds vs. WASP

FredRescue

16 May 14 20:00

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Date Joined: 07 Jul 12

| Topic/replies: 5,115 | Blogger: FredRescue's blog

Who wins?

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Replies: 14

By:

FredRescue When: 16 May 14 20:00

WASP more volatile than Betfair odds

By:

HansUlrichApfelStrudel When: 20 May 14 18:03

WASP 172

By:

eagles33 When: 21 May 14 00:58

i was looking at wasp tonight when i had a bet on the england game. it was one of the reasons i didnt bottle out. a good aid i think

By:

toffee87 When: 21 May 14 09:05

it was favouring Sri lanka a lot more than the bookies

At one point England were given a 9% chance of winning but Sri Lanka were 1.35 - if I've understood WASP correctly, Sri Lanka should have been about 1.1

By:

FredRescue When: 25 May 14 11:58

Is WASP decided before or after toss?

By:

joe39 When: 25 May 14 12:11

Before I think, it's a measure of what "the average team" should be getting for a par score, followed by asking the commentators.

By:

FredRescue When: 25 May 14 15:33

England currently 20% chance on Betfair and 3% on WASP

Mug the bloke who sold WASP if it is actually any good

By:

wondersobright When: 25 May 14 15:46

totally flawed piece of software, should be dropped immediately

By:

BJT When: 27 May 14 12:22

May 25, 2014 -- 3:33PM, FredRescue wrote:

England currently 20% chance on Betfair and 3% on WASP Mug the bloke who sold WASP if it is actually any good

So your point is that it is a gold mine following it?
Who was closer by the way, Wasp at 3% or BF at 20%?

By:

bf trader When: 27 May 14 13:28

Surprised Sky have fallen for it. It's pretty useless and less accurate so far than many of my own rejected models in both its outputs. Thankfully cricket predicting / probability / pricing is a little more complicated than WASP gives it credit for - and this is precisely why it is possible to obtain a consistent edge I/R.

On other note Sky presenters really need to learn the difference between average and par.

By:

wondersobright When: 27 May 14 13:58

May 27, 2014 -- 12:22PM, BJT wrote:

May 25, 2014 -- 3:33PM, FredRescue wrote:England currently 20% chance on Betfair and 3% on WASP Mug the bloke who sold WASP if it is actually any goodSo your point is that it is a gold mine following it? Who was closer by the way, Wasp at 3% or BF at 20%?

imo betfair was much closer with 20%

the outcome of the match cannot cloud your judgement, it is the long term you have to consider

By:

BJT When: 27 May 14 15:03

May 27, 2014 -- 1:58PM, wondersobright wrote:

May 27, 2014 -- 12:22PM, BJT wrote:May 25, 2014 -- 3:33PM, FredRescue wrote:England currently 20% chance on Betfair and 3% on WASP Mug the bloke who sold WASP if it is actually any goodSo your point is that it is a gold mine following it? Who was closer by the way, Wasp at 3% or BF at 20%?imo betfair was much closer with 20%the outcome of the match cannot cloud your judgement, it is the long term you have to consider

Unfortunately there is no long term when it comes to Englands batting.

By:

wondersobright When: 27 May 14 17:11

lol

By:

FredRescue When: 28 May 14 22:51

JT
27 May 14 12:22
Joined:
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| Topic/replies: 16,822 | Blogger: BJT's blog

May 25, 2014 -- 3:33PM, FredRescue wrote:

England currently 20% chance on Betfair and 3% on WASP Mug the bloke who sold WASP if it is actually any good

So your point is that it is a gold mine following it?
Who was closer by the way, Wasp at 3% or BF at 20%?

The point is if it is accurate and so far divergent from the betting odds only a mug would sell it to Sky.