Betfair odds vs. WASP

WASP more volatile than Betfair odds

WASP 172

i was looking at wasp tonight when i had a bet on the england game. it was one of the reasons i didnt bottle out. a good aid i think

it was favouring Sri lanka a lot more than the bookies

At one point England were given a 9% chance of winning but Sri Lanka were 1.35 - if I've understood WASP correctly, Sri Lanka should have been about 1.1

Is WASP decided before or after toss?

Before I think, it's a measure of what "the average team" should be getting for a par score, followed by asking the commentators.

England currently 20% chance on Betfair and 3% on WASP

Mug the bloke who sold WASP if it is actually any good

totally flawed piece of software, should be dropped immediately

May 25, 2014 -- 3:33PM, FredRescue wrote:

England currently 20% chance on Betfair and 3% on WASP Mug the bloke who sold WASP if it is actually any good

So your point is that it is a gold mine following it? 
Who was closer by the way, Wasp at 3% or BF at 20%?

Surprised Sky have fallen for it. It's pretty useless and less accurate so far than many of my own rejected models in both its outputs. Thankfully cricket predicting / probability / pricing is a little more complicated than WASP gives it credit for - and this is precisely why it is possible to obtain a consistent edge I/R.

On other note Sky presenters really need to learn the difference between average and par.

May 27, 2014 -- 12:22PM, BJT wrote:

May 25, 2014 --  3:33PM, FredRescue wrote:England currently 20% chance on Betfair and 3% on WASP Mug the bloke who sold WASP if it is actually any goodSo your point is that it is a gold mine following it?  Who was closer by the way, Wasp at 3% or BF at 20%?

imo betfair was much closer with 20%

the outcome of the match cannot cloud your judgement, it is the long term you have to consider

May 27, 2014 -- 1:58PM, wondersobright wrote:

May 27, 2014 -- 12:22PM, BJT wrote:May 25, 2014 --  3:33PM, FredRescue wrote:England currently 20% chance on Betfair and 3% on WASP Mug the bloke who sold WASP if it is actually any goodSo your point is that it is a gold mine following it?  Who was closer by the way, Wasp at 3% or BF at 20%?imo betfair was much closer with 20%the outcome of the match cannot cloud your judgement, it is the long term you have to consider

Unfortunately there is no long term when it comes to Englands batting. 

lol

JT
27 May 14 12:22
Joined:
30 Oct 04
| Topic/replies: 16,822 | Blogger: BJT's blog

    May 25, 2014 -- 3:33PM, FredRescue wrote:


    England currently 20% chance on Betfair and 3% on WASP Mug the bloke who sold WASP if it is actually any good


So your point is that it is a gold mine following it?
Who was closer by the way, Wasp at 3% or BF at 20%?




The point is if it is accurate and so far divergent from the betting odds only a mug would sell it to Sky.