The point, was when all we know is the most likely team for the first test, it is ridiculous to make any sort of a prediction with any validity at this early stage.

3rd seamer?  If our batting is as poor as you say, then surely his figures put him ahead of both your openers?
Averages 22 per wicket, 2.88 an over, a wicket every 46 balls.

Anderson averages over 30, at over 3 an over, wicket every 58 balls.
Broad about the same but closer to every 60 balls per wicket.

Harris consistently bowls tight and consistently gets wickets, at a much greater rate than either of your top line bowlers.
Broad for instance, was a very dangerous bowler, for about half a day for the whole of the last series.  Is he really worth bowling a full series to get half a day of good bowling?

Would take Harris over either of them any day.

Johnson has comparable figures to both your top 2.  Would be a toss up for number 2 bowler between the 3.  And Siddle, he has better credentials than all 3 of them.  Hardly think it is as straight forward as you are suggesting.  I understand you are happy with the England bowlers, but really they are just average bowlers and certainly don't stand out in this series.

In regards to Swann vs Lyon, I really don't think there is a whole lot of difference in their ability.  The difference lies in the confidence of the captain and the opportunities given to them.  IMO Lyon bowled much better when he bowled last series, but Swann got the opportunity to bowl long spells vs 4-5 overs and pissed off to the field.
Definitely take Swann though as it sits right now.

Starc, is only young, and slightly behind your 2 on figures.  Has only played 12 tests so could easily pick that up, and averages under 20 in ODI and 16.4 in T20Is so enough there to suggest he could be anything.  Certainly not a bad thing having him in the team.

Faulkner only played 1 test and not a front line bowler, but did manage to get the scalp of Bell, Prior, Cook, Trott, along with Swann and Anderson.  Plenty of upside to him and given he was a bowling allrounder, averaging 45 in ODIs at 117SR so far is certainly pretty decent.


In regards to batting, yes, the batting would pick itself somewhat, but there isn't a huge gap there to suggest a massive disadvantage to Australia.  Talking maybe 40-50 runs an innings, and if you put England in the 4th innings, then Australia come out on top.
England batters have the results on the board, but plenty to suggest that your best can't handle the Australian bowlers.  Cook, Trott, certainly did SFA last series.  Bell, a walk up start, very decent solid batsmen.  Pietersen, clearly the best batsmen in your team.  Clarke, the best in either team.

Bailley, who is likely to come in for his first test after having a very nice ODI series in India is certainly starting to find himself as a batsman.  Test match?  Why not.  See ball, hit ball.  Is all the same.  Unknown though so certainly wouldn't have him in combined team.

Would have to take Trott and Cook over the Aussies, and the others as stated, Bell, Pietersen, Clarke.  Haddin, I really don't like as a player, so happy to skip him and include whoever England put out there with the gloves.


On equal footing, England are in front, but the toss of a coin sways that to Australia if it goes their way, or a little further if Englands way.  But this isn't an either team will win scenario, the draw plays a big part.

Batting:
England.
Upside Australia.

Bowling:
Australia.
Upside Australia.

That is how I see it and that is why I won't be touching the markets until I know what the toss of the coin is.  Not touching the weather either.  Last time I made a call on the Brisbane game I was under water about 80kms away, and had been for a week straight to the point where it was near impossible to leave the house, and made the call there was no hope in hell of a ball being bowled in Brisbane so didn't even turn it on.  Saw an update later, and they didn't lose one ball of play.  Certainly not going to take much notice of the weather forecasts pre game, but will keep an eye on the radar during the game.

The beauty about these games though, is the English are so confident they are going to whitewash the Aussies, that there will be some brilliant value on offer many times throughout the series.  So why bet now?  Won't be short of good opportunities throughout, and will know exactly the conditions and batting scenarios on the day....

It is weather based I think based on the forecast.  From where I sit, the last 2 days have been absolute crackers, but he did have tennis size hailstones over most of SE Queensland for a couple of days before that.  Some very strange disturbing weather recently, and a lot of rain predicted during the course of the match.
Worth keeping in mind though during the game, as it will still cause market chaos while rain is predicted til the end of the game.
Other than that, really need to see what the pitch plays like.  All good hearing it looks good now, but that means nothing until the ball hits it and shows how it really is.

whats your prices hushwing?

Not what Bumble has been suggesting.

look its part and parcel of DRS cricket with evenly matched teams of similar style.

i'll go further and you'll all see my prediction will be spot on.


The toss will decide this series too. The teams will ALWAYS elect to bat and the team batting first will NOT lose any of these tests.

I feel like a kid the night before Christmas.  Just can't wait.  Come on boys.

lay eng to win series @ 2.2 to begin with...

Think the toss should be for the first match then alternative choices. It's now such an advantage to bat first most games are won or lost on the flip
If aus win this toss England will be playing for the draw
If we win the first toss series nearly over   Innings defeat

Just can't do it cos I have a normal job. Watch til midnight, then radio 5 on low til I fall asleep. Every now and then I annoy the missus when a wicket falls as I'm drifting off...

Sometimes I think she JUST DOESN'T GET IT.

Nothing beats lying in bed at 6am with a cuppa and the electric blanket on, watching the evening session while the masses are on their way to work, freezing their coconuts off and catching the flu.

market loves England

englands top order batsmen never showed up in the home Ashes just gone and England still won

if 2 of Cook, Trott, KP or Bell have a superb series England will win easily

Aus haven't won in 9. Eng a solid outfit. Know who I'd rather be on

It's first night nerves love, bite on a pillow and think of England!

It will alright by the morning!

Plechy,

Stats be damned.  England worked Aussie over good and hard in the last series without significant contributions from the top 3.  Aus were humiliated uterly.  Their " Great " Captain was shown to be not so great when he could even get two of his batsmen in the side and by the end had to drop 3 left handers because they couldn't play against an off spinner.

It wasn't close.  Aus lost their nerve and never took an opportunity.  I am not saying they won't perform better this time but the result I feel will be even more resounding as there will be no excuses left.

One of the unknown factors in the mix this time is George Bailey .  Captaining the shorter version for OZ he was outstanding last time out .  If he can reproduce that form he will add a bit of solidity to the middle order batting , this has been missing largely lately . Will be keeping an eye on him .

never been to a live game,is ball easy too see?

if it's scotland,I don't need to go to spec savers then?