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**The Ashes 2013 3rd Test 01-05 August Old Trafford**

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By:
GRANTCKING
When: 01 Aug 13 11:54
whats everyone doing here? laying the engerland??
By:
sageform
When: 01 Aug 13 11:55
Main difference so far from previous matches is that the Aussie poor shots are not going to hand. I felt that last time every chance was taken making England look much better than they might actually be.
By:
teo813
When: 01 Aug 13 11:55
I have backed the draw @3.8 and promised myself to green-red out after the first wicket, I hope these two stay a little longer.
By:
viva el presidente!
When: 01 Aug 13 11:56
BJT now replying to posts he can't see. a new low Plain
By:
BJT
When: 01 Aug 13 11:57

Aug 1, 2013 -- 11:54AM, GRANTCKING wrote:


whats everyone doing here? laying the engerland??


Seriously, without the "seething" rubbish, I think you will find the best play, with weather questionable, to be backing the draw.  England not looking dangerous bowling, which was the expected result.  So Australia "coping", means more overs without wickets.  Hence more effect of the weather.  Draw comes into play hard, and given the current scenario, the obvious play is back the draw and look for many ticks.

By:
mccarthy007
When: 01 Aug 13 11:57
GUYS, what do we think will happen to the draw price??
By:
BJT
When: 01 Aug 13 11:58
^^^^
By:
mccarthy007
When: 01 Aug 13 11:58
just had 4k on at 2.72
By:
BJT
When: 01 Aug 13 11:59
Pitch has its demons, but can't see why it isn't the value play of the day.  GL
By:
mccarthy007
When: 01 Aug 13 12:00
well if it gets to 2.2 then Ill green out for a tidy 50% profit
By:
viva el presidente!
When: 01 Aug 13 12:01
mccarthy007
Date Joined:     21 Jan 07
Add contact | Send message
01 Aug 13 11:57 Joined: 21 Jan 07 | Topic/replies: 229 | Blogger: mccarthy007's blog
GUYS, what do we think will happen to the draw price??

-------

I think barring wickets it'll stabilise for a bit, given how much it's come in already. there's a lot of logical reasons to back it, but I'm not sure how much the market trusts australia's batting not to implode regardless of conditions.

how long a bit is is of course a good question. 15, 20mins?
By:
GRANTCKING
When: 01 Aug 13 12:02
ur right BJT no more seething talk from me
By:
vin2385
When: 01 Aug 13 12:02
....until BJT starts seething that isWink
By:
mccarthy007
When: 01 Aug 13 12:03
Thx Viva President for your insight
By:
GRANTCKING
When: 01 Aug 13 12:04
Grin
By:
mccarthy007
When: 01 Aug 13 12:04
here is a question guys. If OZ only lose say 2 wickets today what do we think the draw price will be at the end of play, regardless of runs !
By:
steview84
When: 01 Aug 13 12:05

Aug 1, 2013 -- 12:04PM, mccarthy007 wrote:


here is a question guys. If OZ only lose say 2 wickets today what do we think the draw price will be at the end of play, regardless of runs !


1.7-1.8

By:
steview84
When: 01 Aug 13 12:05
that won't happen tho
By:
mccarthy007
When: 01 Aug 13 12:05
why? you think they will lose more than 2 wickets today Stevie??
By:
BJT
When: 01 Aug 13 12:06

Aug 1, 2013 -- 12:00PM, mccarthy007 wrote:


well if it gets to 2.2 then Ill green out for a tidy 50% profit


2.2 defo on offer today.  Personally I hate having a position overnight on cricket, so if it happens today joy joy.  Big swings so far today, but think it is correcting to where it should have been.  Certainly won't continue.

After watching, ended up going with a lay of Eng, so am going to finish that trade off soon, and then concentrate on the draw coming in. 
Obviously Aus been questionable on the whole, so 2 batsmen looking "comfortable" doesn't mean as much as a team firing, but still, England certainly don't look dangerous.  Drinks, first session, Eng gone 1.90 to 2.90.  Certainly won't see the same range next session given the same scenario. 
So trading out of everything bar the draw back.

GL

By:
maggot
When: 01 Aug 13 12:07
Bear in mind that a draw is no good for Australia. They have to try and win this.
By:
mccarthy007
When: 01 Aug 13 12:08
yes they do but the weather might scupper their plans, no?
By:
BJT
When: 01 Aug 13 12:08

Aug 1, 2013 -- 12:07PM, maggot wrote:


Bear in mind that a draw is no good for Australia. They have to try and win this.


Australia on the whole, certainly would.  But given recent results, no guarantee they wouldn't be happy with a draw.

Would defo lean towards Aus always playing for a win, but losing this test would be the worst run in test cricket since the 19th century?

By:
BJT
When: 01 Aug 13 12:08
run in test cricket *for Australia
By:
mccarthy007
When: 01 Aug 13 12:09
what just happened to the draw, came in from 2.64 to 2.46, any ideas why??
By:
viva el presidente!
When: 01 Aug 13 12:09
...alternatively, it might stabilise for about 5 minutes then drop like a stone Plain
By:
BJT
When: 01 Aug 13 12:09
Australia, following a 4-0 series reverse in India earlier this year, have suffered six successive Tests defeats for the first time since 1984 -- they last lost seven in a row in the 19th Century.
By:
BJT
When: 01 Aug 13 12:10

Aug 1, 2013 -- 12:09PM, mccarthy007 wrote:


what just happened to the draw, came in from 2.64 to 2.46, any ideas why??


Karma... Because I am well due. 




Thank me later for being a kind soul all my life....   LaughLaugh

By:
Arfur Foxache
When: 01 Aug 13 12:10

Aug 1, 2013 -- 12:09PM, mccarthy007 wrote:


what just happened to the draw, came in from 2.64 to 2.46, any ideas why??


couple of 4's

By:
Gud-piggy
When: 01 Aug 13 12:10

Aug 1, 2013 -- 12:09PM, mccarthy007 wrote:


what just happened to the draw, came in from 2.64 to 2.46, any ideas why??


bad weather, gonna rain Kangaroos for next 4 days. Crazy

By:
viva el presidente!
When: 01 Aug 13 12:11
two 9K bets in about a minute suggest a big player fancied it as value.

which it probably should be. IF australia can concentrate as well as bat.
By:
mccarthy007
When: 01 Aug 13 12:11
my original bet was £4000 on oz at 3.85 but layed it off after 30 mins for the same price as got nervous and stuck it on the draw..after listening to you guys on here.
By:
BJT
When: 01 Aug 13 12:13

Aug 1, 2013 -- 12:11PM, mccarthy007 wrote:


my original bet was £4000 on oz at 3.85 but layed it off after 30 mins for the same price as got nervous and stuck it on the draw..after listening to you guys on here.


Lesson 1.
Never listen to people on here.

Everybody has an opinion.  If you aren't prepared to back your own, certainly don't back ours.  Advice would be to drop your stakes, and back your own.  If you find something relevant, take it into account, but listening to the gooses on here, will send you broke.  Or nutty.  Or both...  Crazy

By:
Gud-piggy
When: 01 Aug 13 12:14
yayy yay... thats right ExcitedWink
By:
mccarthy007
When: 01 Aug 13 12:15
no, but its good to see the logical arguments re draw/price etc...thats what I listened to
By:
BJT
When: 01 Aug 13 12:15
England will be creaming in their pants right now.  Somebody scoring more than 1 run every 3 balls is fcuking unheard of.  A run a ball?

Meltdown....  LaughLaugh
By:
GRANTCKING
When: 01 Aug 13 12:15
AUS are flying here
By:
GRANTCKING
When: 01 Aug 13 12:15
aussie aussie aussieeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
By:
Gud-piggy
When: 01 Aug 13 12:16
4 ... 4. 44. 4 .... raining Crazy
By:
BJT
When: 01 Aug 13 12:16
England confused.  Wearing whites?  But playing a T20?  Will be bowling Cook soon thinking everybody has bowled their overs....


LaughLaugh
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