RCB v PWI

Apr 23, 2013 -- 1:49PM, tonyf wrote:

even then Nigel, it will be 14+ an over

yes, but that's more do-able over the shorter length with finch in.  Just giving the reason for the market price.

Apr 23, 2013 -- 1:56PM, nigelpm1 wrote:

So, what if there's 30 overs left in a Test Match and Gayle's at the crease on a good pitch needing 200+ - wonder where the market would price it? ;-)

He opens for his team, so it depends how long he has already been out there. Fatigue plays a part. Also Tests have a much bigger ring than here. This is pretty small even by T20 standards. He would be no where near odds on thats for sure

Apr 23, 2013 -- 1:58PM, Srichaphan or Ancic? wrote:

Just ridiculous how you can still back RCB. It like backing Man Utd at 1.01 when they are beating QPR 10-0.

no it's not.  Weather coming into play and all hell could let loose with DL

Apr 23, 2013 -- 2:00PM, Srichaphan or Ancic? wrote:

And what would they need on D/L? Unchaseable even on that.

It just makes it more a lottery than the clear free money that you seem to think it is.

Apr 23, 2013 -- 2:09PM, mayburydrr wrote:

are bets void if it rains and match isnt completed?

Yeah

Apr 23, 2013 -- 2:09PM, mayburydrr wrote:

are bets void if it rains and match isnt completed?

Need 5 overs.

Apr 23, 2013 -- 2:14PM, Srichaphan or Ancic? wrote:

it won't help Pune. It is designed to be unbiased.

yeah, it is designed that way BUT it's been shown in T20 to help the chasing team.

Apr 23, 2013 -- 2:15PM, mayburydrr wrote:

you obviously havent watched enough rain affected cricket. D/L is a joke and usually favours team batting 2nd

in this case D/L would favour RCB massively because they hadn't lost a wicket by this stage. Also Pune well behind RRR

Apr 23, 2013 -- 2:18PM, mayburydrr wrote:

does it matter how many wickets RCB lost? i dont think so. it depends on the chasing teams wickets

It depends on both. I did 4 years of stats at Heriott Watt uni for my honours degree. Went back and did a Masters avergaed 74%. I'm now a student actuary off on study for my exams. I make a living off (not including Betfair) knowing my stats. I understand how the model works.

Apr 23, 2013 -- 2:24PM, tonyf wrote:

I managed to deposit £20k and made the easiest £400 ever

well done.  It was free money

Apr 23, 2013 -- 2:41PM, tonyf wrote:

thanks Nigel, the phrase is tedious in the extreme, there isn't any, but this was close. Must have been true odds of at least 500/1

of course you are right.  But backing 1.02 when it should be 1.005 has to be good long term sense.  Worth noting that Pune may have only needed 66 off the first five overs on DL though - market made sense until it was clear there wasn't rain.

Apr 23, 2013 -- 2:52PM, Arfy Barfy wrote:

Yeah but they lost a wicket right away which would have increased their total to win higher than 66

I meant in the interval before the wicket.  Price after that was just plain silly.

Apr 23, 2013 -- 2:53PM, nigelpm1 wrote:

Apr 23, 2013 --  2:52PM, Arfy Barfy wrote:Yeah but they lost a wicket right away which would have increased their total to win higher than 66I meant in the interval before the wicket.  Price after that was just plain silly.

Yeah that is true

Apr 23, 2013 -- 2:54PM, Arfy Barfy wrote:

But the chance of rain was so small. Then it would have to rain long enough that overs are lost so the D/L comes in to it

but probably about 1/50 or 1/100

Apr 23, 2013 -- 2:58PM, Arfy Barfy wrote:

Less than that I think but I admittedly I don't have a clue about Indian weather

Judging by the earlier tweet I'd say it was quite remote but possible.

Apr 23, 2013 -- 3:01PM, Arfy Barfy wrote:

I thought that tweet was just for some excitement and followers. I don't trust weather predictions at all. I'm very cynical about it

ha ha might have been.