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Cricket
New Zealand V England (3rd Test)
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OK, OK, Whose bright idea was it that we should bowl first?
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Christ,what a boring match. no action. game destined for draw, what is the point? off to bed.
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NZ know they need to push on, to have a chance of the win. Wickets will fall.
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could well be a draw boys
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A match where you could lose your shirt by chasing the market. Apart from some minor tidying, I'll leave this match alone.
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lovely first days play - one of the easier games to make money on.
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Traded out to a modest all red book, and that's me done.
Normally I'd be laying the draw at these prices, but this match looks a draw from here. Can't see NZ getting less than 400 at a fairly slow rate, which means Eng would have to collapse twice on a flat track that won't deteriorate much. Unlikely. Other scenario is NZ get 400, Eng get 550, leaving maybe 3 sessions to bowl NZ out and get whatevers needed. More likely IMO. |
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totally chucking it with rain in Auckland right now
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The pitch is a freeway. What the hell did England see in it to send the Kiwis in??...
.The match and series will be a draw. 0:0 in a 3 match series. Haven't seen that for a while. Not a great advertisement for Test cricket, but as long as we make $$$, who cares?...  . |
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It's a freeway at the moment but wickets change. No harm here in a few quid on ENG at 14.5
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Some forecast rain for the start of play today as well - happy to back draw at 1.42 here.
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A bit or even some rain at the start of play will make little difference, as 27 overs can be made up for lost time. Looking at the wicket, it will do very little for the whole 5 days. New Zealand have sort of made sure, they won't lose this series, with 3 very poor Test Match wickets. Now NZ's bowlers are not as good as England's despite the score, so a draw, although not certain looks very very likely, at this stage.
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didn't expect such a bat friendly pitch
 New zealand obviously happy with 0-0 ...yawn |
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not often u see the draw so low after stumps day 1 of a test
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In some ways common sense would say lay the draw at 1.42 - as it's a short price but the deck looks so good.
Can easily see NZ getting 400+ although they'll probably accelerate perhaps putting ENG back in late in the day. As long as ENG don't collapse you end up with another 5 sessions taken out with them batting to 500 particularly without KP. At which point ENG price will come in and NZ's out and it will rely on an NZ collapse to win the game - but can't see pitch allowing it. Back of ENG here definitely worth a punt though. |
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Think the assumption that England rack up 500 here without a problem is a little off the mark regardless of how good the pitch is. Our middle order looks rather frail imo, bell and root have left a lot to be desired and bairstow plays his first test of the tour.
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Didn't see a ball last night, but England's price is the only one that tempts me.
NZ haven't really scored aggressively and couldn't close out the 1st Test from a position of strength. They'd be delighted with 0-0. The draw at 1.40 after Day 1 with no major weather concerns should be auto-lay so England around 16 looks more interesting than the Kiwis about 5, although they'd probably need to get 600 to force a result? |
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going to be very hard for england to force a result from here without their main aggressive batsman
Panesar has had a poor tour for me. they need Swann back and Panesar can attack at the other end. |
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My initial lay of the draw is looking sick, 85% of the value gone so no point in levelling up. Lay of NZ looks the best strategy as the green on them is unlikely to come home. Short boundaries mean that Eng could score quickly when their turn comes.
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only value bet left is a back and lay of england and as the market will act very postive to quick wickets. can not c passed a draw here but felt that way in the last test between aust v india then india when mad in the first inns.
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That's true Nigel, the lay of NZ has also reduced my draw liability. The slow scoring rate has meant that NZ price has not moved very much but if wickets fall next session this price should move out and Eng. come in. I will look silly if NZ score 550 and bowl Eng. out twice but not expecting that (famous last words).
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It always amazes me how Test Cricket whilst pedestrian at times can change quickly. A back of ENG here is well worth £20 of anyone's money. If 13 wickets go tomorrow the draw will get blown out of the water.
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Yes cricket matches have a way of making you look foolish....things can change quickly at times.The problem England have here,though,is that NZ will be happy with 0-0 and will probably bat on and on until they can't lose......the onus is on England to bowl them out and pretty quickly too.Sometimes Cook can be pretty negative too and he'll be keen not to muck things up and lose.....we'll see!!!
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The whole series has been a case study in why Joe Public has lost interest in Test cricket.
At no point have we witnessed any sort of a contest, so why watch? A draw is one thing, the draw being odds-on from lunchtime on day one is quite another. You reckon there will be 13 wickets today, Nige? Bless you, the world loves an optimist. I hope you're right. |
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Fascinating stuff,Nigel....we'll see!
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There's 4 long days to go in this test. Of course the draw is favourite but England were unlucky on day 1: there could easily have been 4 more scalps. I predict wickets on day 2 (not sure about 13 though).
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Eng v good price here. Nothing else makes sense. Maybe lay NZ if you have no balls.
Suppose the guessers who smash in odds on prematch without seeing pitches have already gone skint in this series have they? |
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Because Shorting NZ is nowhere near as potentially profitable as buying some cheap Eng at current prices. 28% max return for risk versus more than 1000% on Eng. and the draw should already be onside (if your tv works).
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Auckland weather. Big patches of blue sky with occasional cloud. 8.08am. Game will start on time and lose 0 overs.
NZ declare on 590/1 |
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Bigger prices available on England later today. Little or no value in taking a price on them now.
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NZ declare on 590/1.
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Bigpoppapump,
Starting from a clean sheet, backing England at these odds is tempting. In my case I already had a big red on the draw and shorting NZ which reduces this red and increases green on England makes more sense than the direct back of England which increases the liability on the draw. The first law of successful investing is preservation of capital. Admittedly had I not gone to bed last night I could have layed off earlier but that's water under the bridge. Good luck all tonight. |
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9.55am Perfect weather for cricket. Full days play
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9.55am Perfect weather for cricket. Full days play
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put a decent bet on England at the price. quick wickets and this is a par position for day 2 of a test.
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30 mins with no wickets and they blow up to 30
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