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** England World #1 v Saaf Africa The Real World #1 - 3rd Test Official **
** England World #1 v Saaf Africa The Real World #1 - 3rd Test Official **
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Replies: 2,368
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SA will do well to bat another session - bowlers fresh with a newish ball in the morning.
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SA mugged it up fpr themselves and for me as well..!!! Got myself in a hole here..not sure if i can come out of this match unscathed..
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Try the draw Steam then lay it back later. the pitch looks like a belter!
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England certainly struggled after a good morning session with the ball. Since then, excluding a burst from Anderson under the lights at the end, England have been pretty ordinary with the ball. de Villiers, Rudolph and Duminy all gifted away their wickets after looking supremely comfortable. Throw in the diabolical decision to give Kallis out and I think you can make a reasonable case England have enjoyed a fair amount of luck today bowling on a good batting strip.
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Agree. Anderson + luck = decent position.
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I want to back the draw now.but 7 wickets in a day..and with England's batting form I am really scared of getting in a bigger hole here..if it is belter then I am wondering if laying SA would be a better option
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I really like the draw now.
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I would be 300 down both on SA and Eng to back the draw..I am a little worried..god..what did i get into
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the draw's a back to lay at the mo for me (back now , lay towards end of england's first dig) ...or just simply lay now .... this match is unlikely to end in a draw ...4 days to go , no weather about ,,,just look at crunchy frogs thread to understand about how the draw is priced incorrectly in test cricket consistently over long periods of time , know what i mean
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Hard to fancy England here given their newly reconstructed batting line up against Steyn and Morkel
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Draw is a total mugs bet here IMO. not a chance
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Im thinking of laying the draw. Say SA bat 20 overs tomorrow morning, add 60 runs, takes them to 320. England bat for the rest of the day and get within a 100 runs or so, game will be evenly poised.
If england get bowled out in the day, SA will be in prime position with 3 days left to complete two second innings. SA struggle, england could be well poised to bat well into day 3, set up a good 1st innings lead. |
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Sudoku
Be a man Lay the draw Pull the trigger I have palyed these markets for years its a fantastic trade you won't regret it |
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You ever thought of going into motivational speaking?
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England bat well: Draw should come in, England bat poor draw should come in because hopes would be high for a good second innings by SA, England manages to get even draw comes in...I am not sure laying the draw at this point is a great idea.., only way draw bloats is if we see another 10 wickets tomorrow.
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300 - are you joking? I've won and lost many multiples of that.
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For me that would be the first time nigel :) never lost 300 pounds so far and dont want to lose here either...what do you suggest?
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i suggest if you don't want to lose money you don't bet - simple as. It's a gamble.
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What kind of argument was that..just because i dont want to lose money i shouldnt bet..!!! as if you bet to lose money..?
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Trader PJ must be on the wind up, saying something cant happen and betting accordingly is one of the surest ways to lose your bank sooner or later. The draw is very much a chance here.
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steam - it's a logical argument. At some point you will lose - you can't win them all.
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Didnt say I wont..for now I am wondering how do i get out of this hole..or just take this loss and carry on..
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yes, take the loss I'd say
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I think Nigel hit it on the head! The most honest appraisal you will find on here!
Having said that Steam I would say there is a long way to go in this test. 3 results possible. I am sitting on England -4.65 S Africa+1.9 Draw +5.8 I am quite happy with that for now. Should England play badly tomorrow I hope to buy them back to cover that position. If they play well I might be able to lay the draw on Saturday. My biggest fear is SA skittle England tomorrow but I dont think that will happen. If you are sitting on SA. Dont worry for the next 2 days, just sit and wait for an opportunity to present itself. |
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Still no position for me, I just dont have much faith in england if we lose a couple early.
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WD
Are they units of £1,000? |
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Eng trade odds on again at Lords. Dont say you weren't warned.
happens every year..  |
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Gr8 tip Lix - I do enjoy your posts .
I Laid the draw myself though . Can not understand people tipping up the draw . Weather forecast is ok , Sa should not bat further than lunch . England have a vulnerable middle / lower order . Morkel all over Struass . Slow turn already on day 1 . England also need to set up the win . Worst case scenario is Eng bat slow ( cook trott ) and SA block out 2nd innings ( they will need to bat 6 sessions at least prob 10.Draw layers have already got through SA first innings - that was the only real concern that SA could rack up 600 first innings. Just can not see this ending in a draw Look forward to the post thorughout the day |
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Saffers massive.
Back now and on the fall of each remaining Saf wicket. |
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It's not likely to be a draw SN02, but there is a perception that batting will be much easier when the sun comes it, and the Lords track doesn't normally disintegrate like many other pitches. Also a reasonable argument that England for the most part weren't that great yesterday, and the Saffers a bit unlucky, but also careless.
Every chance it could still be a slow flat one on Day 5. So there is plenty of scope here for the draw to go much lower in the next few days unless England get skittled. Personally I don't think it will be a draw - too much pressure on both sides for that. Price I think is out at the moment is England's - that looks short to me. Not many scenarios where they will be significantly shorter at the end of the dsy as if they bat well the draw will take most of the slack. |
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think this pitch will deteriorate myself. Swann took 9 wkts here in 2010 when the game was also
played in August. Obviously Pak had other things on their minds back then  but still big spin for swanny with some unplayable balls. Dont see saffers batting us out the game in the 3rd inns. Even if they did somehow bat into day 5 I'm sure eng would have a go at chasing 320 ish in 75 overs and probably lose in trying.. |
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Agree England won't be 'doing a Dhoni' come the last day - too early to call on the pitch from what I saw later yesterday.
All set up for a Day 5 thriller imo. |
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wickets still looks good but that England middle order worries me.
will probably get rid of a big chunk of my England green before they bat or when they are 1 wicket down im happy to hold a big red on the draw. this wont be a draw. |
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Lix you always think the pitch will deteriorate.
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PJ, I wish!
They would have been had Hurricane Ernesto moved in a couple of hours earlier last week! I put all my winnings from Headingley on a rain stops play scenario but it was Hail Mary call and I didn't pray hard enough. Death or glory! With this game I just feel it is evenly poised and anything could happen yet. Patience is the order of the day. If England take early wickets it will be tempting to lay them at odds on but I am overexposed and have to rein it in, which, will be difficult! |
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England need these 3 wicket in less than an hour
aim is under 325 |
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please dont start with Broad today
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I wonder if Smith thought about declaring? Would have been an interesting decision with the cloud cover!
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I have backed the draw at 3/1. A brilliant price. There could be some storms over the next few days. If they are as heavy as forecast we could lose a good few overs. Saffers would also be happy with a draw to win the series.
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doubt he did at all
Steyn quite dangerous in this conditions |