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**The Mighty England & South Africans v South Africa 1st Test**
**The Mighty England & South Africans v South Africa 1st Test**
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350 overs is very optimistic given the forecast. Think we are looking at closer to 300 tops.
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The weather is a lottery and is forever changing. I certainly wouldnt be making any assumptions for betting purposes on the weather.
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350 overs is conservative imho.
Overs can be made up. 55 - 70 - 85 - 98 - 98. That's 406. Perfectly feasible. In fact, wouldn't be surprised if we had more. |
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not quite a lottery - three day forecasts pretty accurate now.
You won't see 50,70 and 85 overs in the first three days. More like 30, 30 and 40. As always we'll see |
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I'd wager you a very large sum of money that we see more than 100 overs over the first three days!
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be amazed if there weren't at least 100 overs on the first 2 days
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anyway i was just making the general point about the series. these 2 attacks don't need prime bowling conditions to look threatening and if they do get them batting will be very tough
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Nigel looking at some right dodgy sites there! weeather will be mostly fine. Its the middle of July ffs! forget whats happened already this summer it has little relevance on whats gonna happen this weekend which is lots of cricket.
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Draw flying out now...
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lucky if there is 300 overs in the match rain is forecast for all of the first 3 days. Im a member at the oval too and the drainage has been very poor this year just as a result of the constant rain we have had all summer. If it does rain during the test then expect long delays. At these prices i think the draw is a standout and cannot believe the drift from 2.2 to 2.6
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no way of a result in 300 overs...
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i think we need at least 4 full days to even think of a result...
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which we'll get. easily
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Anyone else think SA are huge at 3/1?
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no. They've had 4 days prep for this series and pretty much every one of englands players is in fine form. gonna be very very hard for saffers.
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As I just said to you on twitter - reckon they make fast inroads in to our top order on a few occassions - we will hopefully win, however, I fear this bowling line up - Could find ourselves 120-5 more than once
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are u on england lix?
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Here's what happened last time an undercooked saffer attack bowled in the 1st test of the summer..
 http://www.espncricinfo.com/engvrsa/engine/match/296909.html 4 x tons for the bowlers  |
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lol remember that match well it was an absolute road - could have played for another day and still not had a result... did you forget what the Saffers did in 2nd inns?
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how comes tremlett dont get a look in anymore?
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yeah, smith, mckenzie and Amla batted long for the draw. anyone who backed the saffers lost their money by about lunch on day 1 tho...
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haha - yeah I hear that... just expect a result and wickets to fall... if England bat first and post 500 - I called it wrong and will happily lose my money, but I consider this series 50/50 as such gone with the value imo
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saffers far too big @ 4..they're the better side in both batting and bowling...they should be favourites
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Disagree that they are the better side and should be favs, its an even game - fair price with weather around would be for them to be around 3.25imo - may yet happen as draw lengthens. England price about right.
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fair enough. I cant have this as 50/50 at all. Player for player we are better and at home.. and in form.. . Kallis averaged less than 15 here last tour.
Can see the draw going short tho if SA play the extra batter. AB not as good a keeper as Boucher and little experience in this country where it swings late. can see him dropping a few costly ones which our boys will be reminding him about in the slips when he's batting. |
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I am laying the draw. Both teams have brilliant bowling line ups. Conditions will very likely favour them.
Eng batters have been good against weak bowling, but will struggle in overcast conditions against Morkel, Steyn, Phillander. Likewise, SA will struggle against Anderson, Finn, Bressie and Broad. I apprecaite that there may noe be 5 days full play, but I dont think it will be needed. Also, we must have some summer weather some time soon!!!! |
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yeah sorry with the dodgy weather i can see why the draw is currently fav...i just feel if there is to be a result i would favour backing the saffers given the strengh of their team.. particularly at the current price...they might be playing away from home but they have far too much class throughout their team to be as big as 4.00 against any opposition
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I just checked the weather. Thurs + Fri are overcast with potential drizzle, but then 3 days of hot sunshine. I foresee early wickets in the overcast conditions and any time lost being made up on Sat/Sun/Mon. Backing the draw at short odds is crazy!
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Not sure what forecasts people have here but everything I can find online including the BBC (which use the met office) suggest Thursday will be pretty well a washout, Friday drizzle/rain most of the day and Saturday drizzle for part of the day. Rest of the time will be fine with no interruptions. Given the pitch is pretty flat and with the sun out will be even better for batting the drift on the draw makes no sense.
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nigelpm1 18 Jul 12 12:32
Not sure what forecasts people have here but everything I can find online including the BBC (which use the met office) suggest Thursday will be pretty well a washout http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643743?day=1 |
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BBC/Met are pretty clueless Nigel. they ALWAYS overplay the threat of rain. possibly even more so after the year we've had.
Remember how you thought it was gonna piss down everyday in Galle not so long ago... |
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time to take some profit on the draw at 2.64.
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I have looked at various forecasts and Thursday is cloudy with chance of drizzle, Fri and Sat are cloudy and Sun/Mon good weather. I see 40 overs lost, but the cloudy Fri/Sat should see plenty of wickets fall.
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Its rained nearly every day in england for 3 months the drainage at the oval is completely shot to me the bet is the draw at 2.58
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dunno about drizzle. more sporadic showers imo.
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Forecast changing by the hour. I can see prices fluctuating to mirror forecasts.
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"saffers far too big @ 4..they're the better side in both batting and bowling...they should be favourites"
>>>What absolute drivel. |
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"BBC/Met are pretty clueless Nigel. they ALWAYS overplay the threat of rain. possibly even more so after the year we've had."
>>>It's all PR they always overplay bad weather, whether it's rain snow wind whatever, they can't afford to get caught out underestimating how bad things will be. It's the 21st century the truth and accuracy doesn't actually matter. |
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lol DD, only time they've underplayed the rain was the Jubilee this year. They must've known it was gonna piss down all day and put the most positive spin on it they could.
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