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*** laydraw or back2fav etc, continued ***
*** laydraw or back2fav etc, continued ***
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Match 146, Aus v NZ; 1st test, Brisbane ...
Aus 1.95; draw 2.96; NZ 6.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Match 146: backfav
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Match 147, Aus v NZ; 2nd test, Hobart ...
Aus 1.68; draw 3.75; NZ 7.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Match 148, Ban v Pak; 1st test, Chittagong ...
Ban 13; draw 5.5; Pak 1.34 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Match 147: backdog
Match 148: backfav
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Match 149, SA v Sri; 1st test, Centurion ...
SA 1.46; draw 5; Sri 8.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Match 150, Ban v Pak; 2nd test, Dhaka ...
Ban 19; draw 6.4; Pak 1.26 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Match 149: backfav
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Match 150: backfav
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Great stuff Crunchy.
Every game I think to myself the draw looks small and it just continues to remain that way. People still back the draw. Very rarely does the draw look value at the start of the game. You need serious rain or a flat pitch and sometimes both to have a draw. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Match 151, Aus v Ind; 1st test, MCG ...
Aus 2.18; draw 3.5; Ind 3.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Match 152, SA v Sri; 2nd test, Durban ...
SA 1.43; draw 4.8; Sri 10.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Match 151: backfav
Match 152: backdog 
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Match 153, Aus v Ind; 2nd test, SCG ...
Aus 2.24; draw 3.9; Ind 3.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Match 154, SA v Sri; 3rd test, Cape Town ...
SA 1.58; draw 4.6; Sri 6.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Since you have been running this thread crunchy I have been consistently laying the draw. The strategy is working fine so far. Should really be starting at 4.00+ but often you will see 5/2 or 11/4 around. Keep up the good work.
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Also be interesting to see how the stats change after the Pakistan vs. England test series as two of the most profitable strategies come up against each other. Plus lay the draw profit might also be threatened. Fascinating stuff though and shows that the prices on ENG might not fully reflect how good a team they really are. Wonder whether India profit level will stand up.
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Good point FA, since four out of the five matches that Pakistan have played in the Middle East have been draws!
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outstanding work crunchy as always.
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Match 153: backfav
Match 154: backfav
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Lay the draw profit continues to motor on. I was thinking of an secondary strategy review, that of laying or backing a team with a world record chase to achieve (more than 418 I believe). I have often thought that the market over-reacts to the chances of someone chasing a world record and would have thought that laying the chasing team has been incredibly profitable over the last three or four years. Something I might look into tracking when it arises next.
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Match 155, Aus v Ind; 3rd test, Perth ...
Aus 1.74; draw 5.8; Ind 3.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Match 155: backfav
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Crunchy - what do you make of the upcoming series? Draw looks the cheapest to lay in a long time, probably for good reason. Interesting to see whether the England P&L stands up to scrutiny.
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FA, I wouldn't rule out a draw or two! The series score market says it all ... "draw 1-1", "Eng 1-0" or "Eng 2-0"
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Match 156, Pak v Eng; 1st test, Dubai ...
Pak 4.4; draw 2.24; Eng 2.98 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Match 156: backdog
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Match 157, Aus v Ind; 4th test, Adelaide ...
Aus 2.04; draw 3.05; Ind 5.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Match 158, Pak v Eng; 2nd test, Abu Dhabi ...
Pak 3.7; draw 2.26; Eng 3.35 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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how can australia be anything other than short favs from here India have been shocking with this lead India are about 50 50 whether they will even be batting on the final day let alone some kind of draw scenario hilarious anyway
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Match 159, NZ v Zim; only test, Napier ...
NZ 1.29; draw 6.2; Zim 15.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Match 157: backfav
Match 158: backdog Match 159: backfav
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Match 160, Pak v Eng; 3rd test, Dubai ...
Pak 2.76 draw 3.6; Eng 2.74 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Match 160: back2fav
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Match 161, NZ v SA; 1st test, Dunedin ...
NZ 6.2 draw 4; SA 1.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Match 161: backdraw and back2fav
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Match 162, NZ v SA; 2nd test, Hamilton ...
NZ 5.5 draw 3.95; SA 1.76 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Match 162: backfav
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Thanks again crunchy, great work.
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Adding my thanks again as well crunchy.
Just a quick question - If the start of a match is delayed due to weather, do you take a snapshot of the prices at the scheduled start time or the actual start time. (I realise that you probably can't always get the prices at the actual start time but I was interested as to what you try to do). |