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can't bring it back for some reason.
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***Smeagol v Bigjoe: 1 Year,All Test Matches,Official Thread***
this was its name but Gubbed aint playing ball |
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Match 59: backdraw and backfav
laydraw..... +£444 back2fav... +£47 layfav........ -£12 lay2fav...... -£141 laydog....... -£152 backfav..... -£494 backdraw... -£555 backdog.... -£575 |
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how soon before all options are in loss? :^0
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Test 60, NZ v PAK; first test, at Dunedin ...
NZ 2.66; draw 3.15; PAK 3.25 |
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Test 61, IND v SRI; second test, in Kanpur ...
IND 2.64; draw 2.42; SRI 4.8 |
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Test 62, AUS v WI; first test, in Brisbane ...
AUS 1.29; draw 6.2; WI 14 |
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impressive stuff crunchyfrog :)
Interesting to note the amazing difference in success of two of the more popular contemporary blind betting strageies :) Strategy 1.. laying the draw in tests ... showing around 8% ROI after 59 bets BEFORE commision. Strategy 2..The asian domination strategy covering all formats that showed around 27% ROI AFTER commision :0 This is further evidence that when it comes to strategies .. there is only one that stands out from the pack :D |
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the AD strategy was after 130 bets btw ;)
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Match 61: back2fav for a change :-)
laydraw..... +£514 back2fav... +£211 layfav........ +£58 laydog....... -£126 lay2fav...... -£241 backfav..... -£594 backdraw... -£655 backdog.... -£675 |
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Matches 60 and 62: backfav twice :-)
laydraw..... +£579 back2fav... +£11 laydog....... -£75 layfav........ -£142 lay2fav...... -£176 backfav..... -£399 backdraw... -£855 backdog.... -£875 |
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Remarkable that virtually every blind strategy is running a loss, other than lay draw.
Joe - how do you think the Asian Domination strategy has gone in 2009? I don't have any figures, but a gut feeling is that T20 would be showing decent returns with the performance of Pak and SL in the World T20, but ODIs and Tests might be dragging it down. In fact, with SL playing Pak and Ind there probably aren't many Tests that qualify, and from memory the ODI results haven't been anything special. You might have stopped the thread at the perfect time! ;) |
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Roused my own curiosity so did a bit of research:
2009 Tests: Ind v non Asian teams: P3 W1 D2 L0 Only qualifying matches were in NZ - from memory India went off between 2.5 and 3.0 each time, so probably a very small loss. Pak v non Asian teams: P1 W0 D0 L1 Only match that qualifies is the one just finished against NZ. SL v non Asian teams: P2 W2 D0 L0 2 match series at home against NZ, both matches won comfortably. Overall: P6 W3 D2 L1 Sri Lanka's wins means the thread would probably be marginally in profit, although I have no record of prices to confirm this. Unlikely to be up by much though, as SL would have been pretty short at home to NZ. 2009 ODIs: Ind v non Asian teams: P19 W9 L6 NR 4 Probably an approximate break even - 3 wins against WI and 4 against NZ, all of which they'd have been odds on for. Pak v non Asian teams: P11 W4 L7 Lost series in Dubai to Aus (3-2) and NZ (2-1), beat WI at Champions Trophy, but lost to Aus and NZ. No record of prices, but a loss looks guaranteed. Probably break even on the Aus series, but certainly lose on the rest. SL v non Asian teams: P4 W2 L2 Have spent most of the year playing Ind and Pak - only qualifiying matches are a home win against NZ, then the Champions Trophy, where they beat SA but lost to Eng and NZ. Probably break even, given that they'd have been good favourites at home to NZ but outsiders away to SA. (There was also a match against Zim but I've ignored that). Overall: P34 W15 L15 NR4 Despite the same number of wins as defeats, I would imagine that the thread would have seen a small loss here, for the reasons outlined above (i.e. India usually favs and therefore only breaking even despite a winning record). 2009 T20: Ind v non Asian teams: P5 W0 L5 I'm not including the win over Ireland. Heavily down here. Pak v non Asian teams: P6 W5 L1 Lost to Eng at World T20, but beat NZ and SA. Also beat Aus and NZ (twice) in Dubai. No record of prices, but obviously well up and probably just about cancels out the India losses. SL v non Asian teams: P6 W4 L2 Beat Aus, WI (twice) and NZ at World T20, but lost twice to NZ at home. Overall: P17 W9 L8 Hard to know for sure, but I would expect a modest profit here - SL and Pak have done well enough to atone for India's 100% record of failure. So my conculsion is that across all formats the Asian Domination approach would be approximately breaking even in 2009 - would be interested to know if anyone can confirm/deny this based on actual prices... |
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SP .. nail hit head on .. bj's timing was spooky re the AD thread .. as you have pointed out .. i know which strategy i'll stick with over the long term ;)
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Indeed, although I do think Joe has a point about the Asian sides being overpriced in Tests, particularly against Aus and SA. This year they've only played NZ though, and nobody rates them in Tests so you aren't going to get the big returns.
I don't think any 'blind' strategy will make money long term in ODIs - the pre-match markets are generally pretty efficient. The AD thread backed this up as I think it was almost exactly even after 100+ matches. Certainly no more than a 1 or 2% profit or loss. T20 is still in its infancy as regards matches and therefore data, but I would expect the same thing to happen over time. |
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There is still some merit to bigjoe's strategy. If we add backindia and backasia,
after 44 tests, (the end of the smeagol v bigjoe thread) we had backindia... +988 (13 tests) backasia..... +£548 (10 tests) This compared with back2fav... +£652 layfav........ +606 laydraw..... +112 After 62 tests, we have backindia... +1052 (15 tests) backasia..... +£636 (13 tests) top of the table :^0 |
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Might as well complete the table :0
backindia... +£1052 (15 tests) backasia..... +£636 (13 tests) backsaff... +£624 (13 tests) backsri...... +£588 (13 tests) laydraw..... +£579 back2fav... +£11 backaus.... -£44 (21 tests) laydog....... -£75 layfav........ -£142 lay2fav...... -£176 backfav..... -£399 backdraw... -£855 backdog.... -£875 |
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Test 63, IND v SRI; third test, in Mumbai (Brabourne) ...
IND 2.42; draw 2.6; SRI 4.9 I got a little carried away with backindia there, they are actually on +£952. Also backsri are on +£589 :-) |
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Test 64, NZ v PAK; second test, in Wellington ...
NZ 3.15; draw 3.45; PAK 2.56 |
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Test 65, AUS v WI; second test, in Adelaide ...
AUS 1.39; draw 5; WI 13.5 |
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Matches 63 and 64: backfav twice, again :-)
backindia.... +£1094 (16 tests) backasia..... +£934 (15 tests) laydraw..... +£681 backsaff.... +£624 (13 tests) backsri...... +£489 (14 tests) laydog....... -£10 backaus..... -£44 (21 tests) lay2fav...... -£68 backfav..... -£101 back2fav... -£189 layfav........ -£342 backdraw... -£1055 backdog.... -£1075 |
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Match 65 : back2fav and backdraw
backindia.... +£1094 (16 tests) backasia..... +£934 (15 tests) backsaff.... +£624 (13 tests) laydraw..... +£581 backsri...... +£489 (14 tests) back2fav... +£211 laydog....... -£2 layfav........ -£86 backaus..... -£144 (22 tests) lay2fav...... -£168 backfav..... -£201 backdraw... -£655 backdog.... -£1175 |
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bloody'ell, Beejay hasn't seen this yet :0 Guess it supports India's rise in the rankings :_|
the backaus stat, although, is rather amusing :^0 |
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where's teh back england stat??
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Good question dougy, and here is the answer ...
After 44 tests, (the end of the smeagol v bigjoe thread) we had backeng.... -£549 (13 tests) :-( currently backeng.... +£323 (20 tests) :-) |
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a profitable last 7 tests, not suprising considering we've played minnows such as the windies and australia in that time
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Is it possible to add the stats for a) winning/losing the toss and b) batting first/second?
I understand how time consuming this may be! If you have the SP's of all the tests you've used in your model so far I might well do it myself over the Christmas holidays. |
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intresting stats crunchy :0 .. but no surprise to me ;)
I think the FUNDIMENTAL thing from a betting prospective is that, like it or not, for whatever reason....the Asian sides, especially india have a lot of doubters in the markets :0 ... their succeses ae underplayed :( .. their losses are overplayed :0 .. in fact that pattern is demonstrated game after game on here in the forum when there are hardly any posts that are positive about injun cricket .. yet plenty of negatives :( This seems to be translated into the markets and depsite it being blindly obvious to me at least that in last 2-3 years india in their MOST RECENT meetings with other 9 countries have won 8 and drawn 1 series :0 .. that in anyones language is the form of the Best team in the world ... BUT still the doubters are doubting them. Its cos of hese doubters that in last test we got 2.5 o india AFTER they had won previous test by an innings :0 The other facor is hat if india lose a game... the market sees hat ot as a blip.. but termnal and their price for next game oes out .... and if they lose that ..it goes out more . but n last few years ..india are Only test team that has won a test in EVERY series thy played, home and away ...so they do ot go many tests without a win... and especially overseas their backrs get to back them at big prices like 10.0 at waca.9.0 in south africa and 6.6 in england :0 At the same time, market favs like aussies and saffrs losses ae seen as blips . markets keep the faith in them after losses .. and so we still get to lay them at silly prices like 1.28 against other top 8 teams :^0 Put simply... whilst the injun doubters are around both in forums and in markets ..india will ot be priced up like aussies or saffrs at 1.3 prematch... they will remain priced up generously and hose backing them instead of listening to the doubters will continue to make a nice profit ;) IF and when those doubtrs dissapear and india start matches 1.3 :0 ..i wil stop backing them blind... till then i say simply.. keep backing the injuns .. cos one thng you wont do in the long run is lose money .. believe me ;) |
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India, Sa and SL have improved greatly over the last 3 years and as result obviously in plus backing them. India no.1 and well done. However, hard to argue that they are going to cement their place and become the dominate run away No.1 as Aus has been for the past 10 plus years. India a top test side and should continue to be vying for the No.1 spot for a medium term, if not occupying it, but SA, Aus and even SL will be in one pack with one team getting popping ahead before being drawn back in.
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told you he hadnt seen it crunchy ;)
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Only 13 smiley faces :0
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he was all smileyed out after his golf post .. ;)
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Minor update before the next test,
backasia..... +£792 (14 tests) I mistakenly added the IND v SRI result to this one :-( And for all you stat lovers, another new entry ... layaus....... +£119 (22 tests) :-) |
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Test 66, NZ v PAK; third test, in Napier ...
NZ 3.55; draw 2.8; PAK 2.72 These were yesterday afternoon's prices - office xmas lunch, etc, missed the first hour of play :-) |
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monsuier le crúnch .. are those in the office aware that you spend most of your day updating this :^0
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amazing stuff crunchy :0
Hopefully the cat is not yet completely out of the bag :( |
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crunchy, have you devised a 'Game-Day Predictor' yet based on these stats?
Be interesting to see what the GDP sez about Centurion? :) |
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Unfortunatey Ted, l only have stats for one test at Centurion ...
Saffers beat Bangles in three days, by an innings and 48 runs :0 Quite close really ;-) Lay SA it is then :^0 |
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Match 66 : back2fav and backdraw again
backindia.... +£1094 (16 tests) backasia..... +£692 (15 tests) backsaff.... +£624 (13 tests) backsri...... +£489 (14 tests) laydraw..... +£481 back2fav... +£391 laydog....... +£40 layfav........ -£28 backaus..... -£144 (22 tests) lay2fav...... -£268 backfav..... -£301 backdraw... -£475 backdog.... -£1275 |
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Test 67, AUS v WI; third test, in Perth ...
AUS 1.4; draw 5.8; WI 8.6 |