Olympics 2012
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29 Jul 12
13:30
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Date Joined:
09 Oct 10
This was stupidly short last night. I layed at 2.34. I'm running daily montecarlo simulations of this market and although we had some poor results, excellent qualifying results in other markets almost made up for it. Was being layed at round 4.0 at the start of yesterday and should still be 3.9. This doesn't include todays results you should note. The collapse to 2.34 is very much in error IMO, especially since Cavendish I had priced at odds against, which he was for ages, rather than the insane 1.75 he was backed down to.
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Hats off to you for this pumpkin, made it an even nicer Olympics. I have to admit i really do like these over/under scenarios over a long term tournament, at times there can be incredibly good value.
Not early morning. Starts 11 or 11.30am and won't be done until early afternoon.
I have just rerun the simulation. There are things inplay so one has to be careful, but the market looks pretty efficient within the margin of error I am working to and I can't suggest a bet. Shame. But value doesn't always appear just because you want it too.
One standout bet I spotted though. Ed McKeever in the boxing. 6/4 with a couple of bookmakers, can lay at 2.1 on here.
boxing?
I've watched most of it,don't recognise that name,ah supposed to be kayaking(thanks wiki.)
I've watched most of it,don't recognise that name,ah supposed to be kayaking(thanks wiki.)
Ah yes, my mistake. Just jotted the name down next to the boxing odds for some reason.
why has the 26 and over price contracted so significantly since last night?
A triathlon gold was 90% chance so have we gone well in something else?
A triathlon gold was 90% chance so have we gone well in something else?
1 needed, after ali brownlee takes triathlon gold.
7 needed to get to 26. Should get 2 in track cycling, possibly 3. Team dressage are in gold position. Boxers going well, think we still have a shout in certain sailing events as well. Should get to 26.
7 needed to get to 26. Should get 2 in track cycling, possibly 3. Team dressage are in gold position. Boxers going well, think we still have a shout in certain sailing events as well. Should get to 26.
It does seem to have overreacted to the triathlon. But there is dressage going on live that we could win two gold so maybe that has gone very favorably since last night.
Could quite easily win 5 gold medals today, including the triathlon. Could explain it, would only need 3 more after that with a lot of gold chances still to compete.
19 gold medals already 
what chances left
laura trott
queen vic
chris hoy
nick skelton show jumping
team gb dressage----not sure about individual
what others please?
ps i've nearly lost on the medal market for sure now but as long as gb get loads of medals i dunna care
what chances leftlaura trott
queen vic
chris hoy
nick skelton show jumping
team gb dressage----not sure about individual
what others please?
ps i've nearly lost on the medal market for sure now but as long as gb get loads of medals i dunna care
Womens 10k swim excellent chance, 2 chances in canoeing, bmx, 2 chances in sailing, 5 chances in boxing, mens high jump in with a shout plus loads of minor chances that may nick a gold with a lot of luck.
I am greened once we hit 20, and have transferred profit to 26+
Fancy us to get them and should be able to trade back if it goes wrong
Fancy us to get them and should be able to trade back if it goes wrong
30 is not unrealistic. Odds against a good bit but not silly odds.
dressage on now, someone asking for 1.07 for a medal....looks between us and the germans but dunna know whats going on
Weighed in 
Cheers pumpkin, only took a look at the market because of this thread
Cheers pumpkin, only took a look at the market because of this thread
Thanks. It really has made the whole thing much more fun. And glad I could provide a winning lay.
Target reached!! Congrats to all who were on, and big thanks to pumpkin. 6 needed for 26 and over.
This market is wrong now. 26+ should be 1.11. 23-25 should be 10.0
But don't get involved now unless pendelton wins. Looking dodgy :-(
Market is about right now, although I'm inclined to add a correlation factor between winning team dressage and individual.
If cycling and that horse jumping **** are removed as Olympic sports in the future then GB are f*@ked.
darts with about 30 different weight classes should see us through.
Don't think different weight classes would make a difference in darts. They'd all pretty much fit in to the same one.
Massive.
Massive.
looks like athletics is gonna miss the target set by van commennee
he said 8 for sure or else he would resign
mo farah and the long jump girl are the only realistic individual chances
don't know if we stand a chance in the relays
he said 8 for sure or else he would resign
mo farah and the long jump girl are the only realistic individual chances
don't know if we stand a chance in the relays
don't think he'll be going anywhere with 3 or 4 golds in the bag. who gives a feck about the minor medals anyway ? it's about gold, gold, gold surely
4 golds to go
farah 5000m
crewe lass - bmx
individual equestrian
nick skelton - show jumping
5 boxers in semis
farah 5000m
crewe lass - bmx
individual equestrian
nick skelton - show jumping
5 boxers in semis
Think we should get 26, but im not pinning my hopes on the show jumping getting one, its just a little too unpredictable. Thats our only gold medal chance of today excluding athletics which i dont think anyone expects us to get a gold in today. Im more than happy to wait until after the show jumping and if i miss the boat then so be it.
impossible to tell now as many of the sports left have a huge 'on the day' element
I mean equestrian, boxing, tae kwon do, modern pentathlon, BMX, diving and even the 5000m can all go either way
we could get 2 or 3 golds from boxing but equally could get zero
don't think 26+ is likely though, they have got to convert a high percentage to get there
I mean equestrian, boxing, tae kwon do, modern pentathlon, BMX, diving and even the 5000m can all go either way
we could get 2 or 3 golds from boxing but equally could get zero
don't think 26+ is likely though, they have got to convert a high percentage to get there
You might be right, but there is a massive drift from 1.15 before pendleton raced yesterday to 1.55 now, she wasn't going to be pivotal to this as we would still need 3 or 4 after her anyway.
in sailing theres i think gb has a good chance for gold in the womens 470 class, we also have a small chance in the mens but i think australia are very big faves there so it looks like silver there. There is also one other event where britain are in the quarter final. Please note the only thing i know about sailing is that if things don't go well you could sink so please paddle with caution 
Think this could be close now after the show jumping falling short of getting gold. 1.65ish now for four more golds.
Not read through this entire thread but some of the sentiments on the first page are v amusing. Should have had a little faith!!
Joined: 27 Nov 11 | Topic/replies: 6,680 | Blogger: judorick's blog
impossible to tell now as many of the sports left have a huge 'on the day' element
I mean equestrian, boxing, tae kwon do, modern pentathlon, BMX, diving and even the 5000m can all go either way
we could get 2 or 3 golds from boxing but equally could get zero
don't think 26+ is likely though, they have got to convert a high percentage to get there
impossible to tell now as many of the sports left have a huge 'on the day' element
I mean equestrian, boxing, tae kwon do, modern pentathlon, BMX, diving and even the 5000m can all go either way
we could get 2 or 3 golds from boxing but equally could get zero
don't think 26+ is likely though, they have got to convert a high percentage to get there
nicola adams,luke campbell, anthoney ojoshua, mo farah, womans 470 sailing, shaneze reid, individual dressage, kerry anne payne
These are eight realistic chances of gold that i can find. Thinks there's a taeknondo lass too
These are eight realistic chances of gold that i can find. Thinks there's a taeknondo lass too
Mhairi Spence modern pentathlon has an outside chance also
Dutch rider posted a very respectable target for the Gb dressage individuals to bet. If they don't get gold in this 26 just looks that bit more unlikely. I'd think it should go odds against
The dressage, womens 470 and the super heavy boxer are the ones I'm expecting gold for btw. I know nothing about the 200m canoeist that u missed from your list gresty but the margins are so fine in that I wouldn't be that hopeful. In my book 23-25 is the current value bet.
Btw i'm not a Farah layer but I don't expect him to win.
Btw i'm not a Farah layer but I don't expect him to win.
Backed the chinese boxer against Adams - won 2 out of their 3 meetings and is odds against. Also partly as a hedge against my 26+ golds bets
gb are so desperate for gold there are 5 judges from yorkshire
i am on 26+ golds for gb and evens for usa ost golds (small red on china when i traded out) so adams winning is good for me
its ok my 26+ golds bet is looking better. Up till now laying the over-bet brits the last few days has been easy money
certainly has. cant believe i havent made more profit :/
took some big losses on football etc
so am only £40 up off a £40 start bankroll
cant complain though, profit is profit
so am only £40 up off a £40 start bankroll
cant complain though, profit is profit
jade jones has a shot at gold, not sure if she'll be fav tho
2 golds to get to 26. I wasn't brave enough to get on the 26+ and i missed the 1.7s earlier which i would have gone in at, and i wont be getting involved now. We should get this though surely.
2 golds to go
farah 5000m
crewe lass - bmx
bloke boxers
470 womens sailing
470 blokes sailing not favourites though need to beat the aussies by two places
jade jones is in the final taekwondo
sarah stevenson taekwondo
farah 5000m
crewe lass - bmx
bloke boxers
470 womens sailing
470 blokes sailing not favourites though need to beat the aussies by two places
jade jones is in the final taekwondo
sarah stevenson taekwondo
add ed mceever who is a canoest for another chance of gold
chances of that final gold not going well today
womens 470 sailing and shaneze reid both failed
stevenson out of taekwondo
the slim chances of the mens 470 and liam phillips failed too
mo farah
3 boxers
ed mceever
to go
womens 470 sailing and shaneze reid both failed
stevenson out of taekwondo
the slim chances of the mens 470 and liam phillips failed too
mo farah
3 boxers
ed mceever
to go
there's a couple of other slim chances, ie kayak doubles, girl in the pentathlon, no nothing of blokes pentathlon and mountain biking 
3 boxers are through to tomorrow nights finals so three chances of gold
campbells around 11/8
evans around 2/1
joshua around 4/6
ed mckeever in the canoeing is around 4/6 also
campbells around 11/8
evans around 2/1
joshua around 4/6
ed mckeever in the canoeing is around 4/6 also
ed mckeever is paddling at 9.30am and is currently trading around 1.57 or 4/7
was available at 1.5 plus after a great start , couldn't believe it
28 is my lucky number so i hope it stays at 28 but if we do have to win more gold medals then i'd rather we end on 30 than 29, 29 is such an ugly number and 30 is a great all round number to end on.
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