Olympics 2012
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29 Jul 12
13:30
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Date Joined:
09 Oct 10
This was stupidly short last night. I layed at 2.34. I'm running daily montecarlo simulations of this market and although we had some poor results, excellent qualifying results in other markets almost made up for it. Was being layed at round 4.0 at the start of yesterday and should still be 3.9. This doesn't include todays results you should note. The collapse to 2.34 is very much in error IMO, especially since Cavendish I had priced at odds against, which he was for ages, rather than the insane 1.75 he was backed down to.
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Agreed, a major over-reaction based on one result in an event that is always fraught with more than its fair share of fortune
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yep we have as many as 6 boats favourites in the rowing now up from about 4 at the start
cavendish was the only likely gold medal from the first 2 days |
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An even better lay now.
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gold rush should be in full flow by wednesday. wiggins and the womens pair in the rowing should be 2 bankers.
not out of the question we'll be in double figures by saturday night |
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Equestrian tomorrow, might be our first gold of the games as well.
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Do you/can you factor the weather into your simulations? If the weather stays clear and moderately warm for the athletics the medal haul will be lower than if the weather is bad.
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hard to quantify that. would it really favour farah and disadvantage the africans if it pishes down on saturday even though he spends most of his time training in warm weather ? might be more of an advantage to dai greene over culson.
suppose you can argue that really hot oppressive weather which you would get in most olympic cities in august will have our cost some of our athletes medals in the past which certainly won't be the case here would have the home crowd as a much bigger factor. 80000 people roaring you on gotta make a difference in a tight finish |
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I went to the Diamond League at Crystal Palace to do some preparation and the importance of the weather was the key thing I left with. If the weather is bad for the athletics I will be backing GB athletes (and others from similar climates) more heavily win/place than if the weather stays as it is that's for sure. In terms of gold totals it may be an angle in the conversion of 4ths/3rds/2nds into golds, or not as the case may be if the broadly dry and mild weather continues.
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Where can I find these markets please?
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Olympics, specials, then Team GB specials, gold medals.
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ty
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There is a general doom and gloom now surrounding gb's chances setting in it seems. And the press are adding to it. Laying 19 or under is still the way to go. It's not that unlikely we would be without a gold at this stage. The alternative hypothesis however is that the total gold medals market is correct and that the win odds are too low, possibly because bookmakers/betfair odds get backed down. However, I took the odds before the start I believe I have avoided this problem. For example, I had Cavendish at 2.18 which I know from his stage win odds in the tour de france is reasonable. He was then backed down to 1.75 at the off which illustrates that gb atheletes are being over backed, but also that the odds I have used are reasonable. So I'm sticking with the lay 19 or fewer option.
Regarding the weather, it is not forecast to be hot. I don't have this in my model as it's hard to quantify, but it certainly won't hurt that it isn't going to be all that hot. |
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hmm, is 19+ golds not too much to ask now?
Where do you see us picking them up? |
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Relative to the starting odds it looks low, as you say the only realistic gold we could have had by now is Cavendish, other than that Ainslie is struggling in the sailing. So we're roughly 1.4 Golds behind forecast
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Completely agree. We havent had any "strong" events imo as of yet, i never expected cav to win although i would have loved him too. I think we start tomorrow. Rowing and wiggins should get the ball rolling hopefully.
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i just laid for a fiver @ 1.67 for a bit of interest
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matched at 1.41, sany reason for the price crash?
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So far today some possibles have failed to deliver, eventing team, ainslie in the sailing, your man in the canoe slalom. Eventing individual we start in 3rd and 4th, so never know, could sneak a gold.
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crazy price, only thing i can think off is injury news to a contender. Sure hope not.
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where will the medals come from?
6 chances in rowing 5 very good chances in the cycling plus pendleton against mears may produce GB golds 1 bmx ennis, greene, farah & farah have good chances in athletics the brownlee's and helen jenkins in the triathlon adlington in the swimming dean macey in the decathalon  these are off the top of my head so please add others |
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florence was about 5/1. surely can't have dropped much on the back of that
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keri anne payne in the 10k swim
think louis smith a marginal favourite on the horse tweddle in with a shout on the bars savannah marshall fave in the heavyweight boxing and surely 1 of the men will oblige |
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Boxing - women's boxing too now don't forget
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surely we can beat italy?
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Sorry lads, I don't want to be pessimistic, but I think the pressure is too great and our athletes are under performing.
No way will we get 6 golds in rowing. 2 or 3 max. May get a few in the cycling, but don't think Wiggins will win the time trial. Think Tony Martin might. Very fast and saved himself during the road race. there's probably only going to be one or two from the sailing. Ainslie is finished. Goodison and Percy/Simpson best chances. Can't see anyone in the athletics getting one, even Ennis and Farah. One things for certain though. If Tweddle can repeat her bars routine from the other day, she will win gold. It was nigh on unbeatable. I reckon we will end up with a maximum of 12. But i'm not even sure of that many. Sad, but we was never going to match up to Beijing. |
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Boxing could bring a couple. Mo and maybe Greene on the track. Then there's the cycling and rowing which may provide 6. I'm not knowledgeable enough to see where we can do well in the other sports.
1.4 is short given the likelihood of one or two surprise results in our favour, but 19 was a welcome surprise in Beijing so 12-16 here would still be a great effort. |
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think 12-16 would be serious underachievement and would seen as such
would expect 2 from athletics, 2 from boxing, 4 rowing, 4 cycling at least, 2 from triathlon, 1 from gymnastics, 2 swimming |
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The thing is,is that imo i dont really see who was a genuine gold prospect from the start to now. I didnt expect any from the pool so far, eventing would have been nice to get but dont really think people saw it as a cert, canoeing slalom was always going to be difficult? Cav is probably the only one and i didnt expect that. Anyone else i have missed?
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it's not so much about the certs converting, it's about the ones with a sniff stepping up and grabbing their opportunity (even if that is a bronze or silver at best like Daley/Waterfield)
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I think BF's market is clever. 19 was the number in Beijing and of course it was unexpected.
No host has failed to better their last Olympics but if 19 was on the high side then it's surely likely we'll struggle to get to 19 this time. |
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I actually think Murray is more than capable. Main danger without Nadal is Federer and I think the 3 sets of the Olympics is much more suitable than the 5 of Wimbledon. He took the first set against Federer remember.
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I think judorick and injera have nailed it really. You need a decent haul of unexpected golds because you know along the line some favourites and strong fancies will fail to deliver. As yet, our overperformances have been of a much lower order than an upgrade to gold.
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ainslie is on the rocks. sailing isn't going too well by all accounts. what are we defending from beijing ? 3 is it ?
would hope to make up the losses from that and cycling - can't possibly match that again - in the likes of triathlon, gymnastics and boxing. even athletics you'd hope for 2 golds from ennis and farah and maybe snatch another from greene, PSD, maybe rutherford or grabatz |
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mafe
I calculated a max of two golds in athletics although there is always a chance that they all step up a level as a team right across the board - get momentum and feed off each other can do wonders canadian boy stepped up massively today in judo, produced a sensational performance to get bronze - was ranked 22 but beat reigning olympic champ, world champs runner up and several other higher ranked players and in some style... GB need a few to go like that |
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As ICS says. You need to go to the Beijing stats and see our fav to gold ratio. Hell of a lot of golds (like Adlingtons) were unexpected. That doesn't seem to be happening yet, and out strong chances are going down.
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Ennis has the WL this year, but she's got previous for a toxic discipline (typically javelin) somewhere in the seven at champs. As poster girl she is under serious pressure too.
Mo worries me. He has the poster boy effect and the distance events are usually tactical and slower than normal, which plays into the hands of the field. I hope he runs the finish out of them if he doesn't be prepared for an unexposed runner to spoil things. Greene, Grabatz, Rutherford, I don't fancy at all. PSD I like, but it's still a difficult job (she's at 5s- I'd have her shorter). Sayers (injury permitting) and Ohurugu chances will increase exponentially in poor weather conditions. Idowu who knows- I'm guessing he will be a long way off being fit. |
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yup Sumo
max two athletic golds imo |
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I think it really is up in the air. Three wouldn't be a surprise, two would be par, less would be disappointing but not a big surprise given the nature of our favourite chances. We need a Rudisha or two
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I'm really doubtful of Ennis
she has two week events and could lose the gold medal if she messes one or both up. The scenario in the long jump is potentially more dangerous. You only get 3 jumps and if she misses the first (red flag, or low score) then she will be looking to get just a solid jump in on the second. That would then mean she has to go all out on the last attempt and that could result in a red flag. Not only that but she has a significant advantage over the other girls in the High Jump but needs to jump near her best to benefit. And there is always the possibility of 'sudden, unexplicable ahem, improvement' from one of her rivals All in all Ennis is a lay |