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Forest000
Forest000 03 Aug 12 12:05 Joined: 12 Sep 06 | Topic/replies: 919 | Blogger: Forest000's blog whats the bet now. I am looking at gettig on this market to trade for a small profit. I am thinking lay, then back tomorrow eve once we won a few I think the bet is good for a trade ,but unfortunately I still in my heart feel that GB will fall short of the 63 medal mark. |
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ty.
fortunetly, when i start betting my heart goes out the window :) |
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Forest000
03 Aug 12 12:13 Good luck with your bet / trade. |
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thank you
I am only betting for pennies. Put 40 in before start of games and withdrew 50 the next day. on 40 again now, trying to get 100 for start of football season. would have cruised it but had 4 bad days where i broke even/lost and dropped my br from 37 to 16. will get there though, need the money for footie season as it pays some bills. I try and green about £1 per market before game/race starts but somtimes settle for as little as 30p. |
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I think it is a great idea to build your bank up slowly.Good luck with the Footie season.
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Firstly Olympic park...WOW! Had an amazing experience today, top notch from all involved.
Secondly, 4 bronze and 2 Gold put us on 22 medals, 41 Needed. |
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amazing day for me today. was down at eton dorney to see kath grainger finally get her gold. hardly a dry eye in the house. then straight up to stratford. noise when jess went in the 200 was incredible
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Do you think that team GB will make it to 63 medals ?
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I was close to laying my overs bet off today but I'm just hoping that the momentum can carry on through the weekend and see how it goes then, considering there now should be/is dead cert medals for Ennis,Ainslie,Farah,Murray and hopefully quite a few in boxing.
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STEVO1878
04 Aug 12 19:26 Good luck with your trade, I would suggest take care with the timing laying off your bet ,because the 'unders' price seems to be shortening. |
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Yeah just noticed that, thanks for the advice. Think we'll fall short of 63, it's a tough ask but I'm just hoping a quick glut of medals will force a market overreaction, and then lay off and pile into unders!
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STEVO1878
04 Aug 12 19:38 Best of luck,keeping my fingers crossed for you. |
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Unfortunately I think that now is the time to lay off any 62.5 'overs' trades.[@ 2.78]is the current price. I think that that tomorrow [Sun 5.8.12] will be the last big medal day for GB.I would lay any overs bet at the end of Sundays' events.
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I cant keep up with all these medals! Another great day for team GB, and after a difficult start to the games we now seem to be in full flow.
Up to 29 medals, which means we need to 34 more. Given that at the start of Wednesday we needed 55, we have had a pretty good few days. I personally think there are more medals to come here, cycling and sailing could be two big contributors over the next couple of days. Two medals guaranteed in the tennis, as well as gymnastics may add a couple. |
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there should be more medals in:
athletics cycling - track, BMX equestrianism modern pentathlon boxing tae kwon do open water swimming gymnastics diving sailing tennis triathlon how many remains to be seen |
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I think we comfortably overhaul Beijing. Wether we have enough to get to 63 im a little doubtful.
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Sudoku_Junior 05 Aug 12 01:36
I think we comfortably overhaul Beijing. Wether we have enough to get to 63 im a little doubtful. I totally agree with your post.Unfortunately I think that from today[Sunday 5.8.12] we will see a marked reduction in the daily number of medals won by GB. |
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Looks like punters are smashing into the under 62.5 price, 1.51 as I write.
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The best way to bet on this market is to see where GB athletes are left in competition and then to look at their bookmaker odds in those events and also use medal by medal predictions from Spots Illustrated and USA Today.
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/olympics/medals#archery_individual_men I think UK will get about 67-69 medals if everything will be perfect.Each time a GB athlete fails to win a medal you can subtract it from those total medals. |
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I think UK will get about 67-69 medals if everything will be perfect.Each time a GB athlete fails to win a medal you can subtract it from those total medals.
Misha, I think the figure you quote is way off the mark. |
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Tennis-- 2 medals
Athletics--- 10 medals if everything goes perfect.Based on USA today medal predictor.I took GB athletes placed 1st to 7th there Boxing--- there are 9 Brits in contention- 6 of them have a chance to win a medal Cycling---- 4 medals Canoe--- possible 5 medals Equestrian-- 2 medals Sailing--- 5 medals Taekwando--- 1 medal Diving--- 1 medal Gymnastics--- 2 medals Triathlon--- 2 medals That is if everything goes perfect.It is not my guesses but USA Today and/or Sports Illustrated predictions. |
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There may be possible medals in Hockey and mountainbike too.
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I personally think that GB will get less than 63 total medals.But it can come close meaning fluctuations in the market.
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misha the russian
05 Aug 12 11:08 To gain the medal count that you have cited ,Team GB would have to medal in every event that they are competing.It just is not going to happen.90 % of the events that you have mentioned the GB competitors are rank outsiders. |
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Misha how many medals do you think GB will finish with ?
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misha the russian
05 Aug 12 11:08 I don't think the USA today medal predictor can be taken too seriously.They predicted that Russia would get 21 Golds - they have 3 at the moment ! |
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I think they are ranked outsiders for the gold medals in those events but not for a medal.I am not saying they will get all the possible medals which I have listed.That is why I stated that it is a perfect outcome which will not happen.
But in my personal opinion you can not bet on those medals market using your gut feeling and should use bookmakers odds and medal predictors like the one from USA Today.Here are few more: http://www.topendsports.com/events/summer/medal-tally/rankings-predicted.htm I think UK will finis with under 63 medals and have bet acordingly.But it will be close and today I would rather bet on USA getting more gold medals when China. |
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misha the russian
05 Aug 12 11:36 Best of luck with your bets. |
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you've missed out hockey and mondern pentathlon (where we have the current womens world champion and world bronze medallist) fwiw misha.
Modern pentathlon is a bit of a lottery like, well the womens is. There's a couple of very good male russians. Also I'd say 8 of the 9 boxers have every chance of medalling not 6 (I actually think all 8 are odds on) We havent got 5 chances in canoe mind, I reckon 2 |
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cycling we should get 4 golds plus we've also got Ed Clancy and Shanaze Reade
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you can ignore the world rankings for taekwondo aswell, they are almost complete bollox. We have more than 1 chance in that
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If you are English misha you will remember that Aaron Cook is the world number 1 and wasnt selected ahead of world number 50ish Lutalo Mohammad (who is the European Champion) The decision probably was personal imo and Cook should've been selected, but actually there issn't much to choose between them and Mohammad definitely has a chance, although I guess he's likely to have a tough draw
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2 in equestrian is a bit stingy too. It's minimum 2, it could easily be 4
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CLYDEBANK29
05 Aug 12 13:04 How many medals do you think that GB will get in total at the end of the Olympic games ? |
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For me...
Cycling 5-6 more Taekwondo 1-3 more Boxing 5-8 more Athletics 2-5 more Canoeing 2 more Tennis 2 more Diving 1 more Hockey 0-1 more MP 0-1 more Triathlon 2 more Sailing 4-5 more Equestrian 3-4 more |
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33 more medals needed after star class sailors add a silver.
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Sailing was including the Star fwiw
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CLYDEBANK29
05 Aug 12 13:04 Thanks for your spread 25 - 40 According to your calculations that would put GB on 54 - 69 I think the high end of your spread is pretty unlikely.We need to factor in the vagaries of sport. |
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Anybody want a patriotic tip I'd say get on Charlotte Dujardin and Valegro for the dressage. She just beat the World Record with a monumentally high score of over 90% with this....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jRuRQatxyik She also got the highest score of 83% in her weaker element in the team event |