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Dominic Cummings press conference in-running
Dominic Cummings press conference in-running
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Replies: 799
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why did the WHO sit on the information until China had eradicated the disease from their own country and exported it across the world. what are we going to do about it.
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Angoose - On your charts , which week is lockdown week ?
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UK lockdown kicked in on March 23, Week 13 ended on 27 March.
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by all accounts northern Italy has a stronger health service than we do. and had people passing away in corridors with nowhere to store the coffins. It's not surprising that they thought they had to mitigate against that being replicated here.
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Thanks - looks like lockdown has caused the excess deaths then !
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Don't encourage IT
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Just so I understand correctly - There have been 53,853 excess deaths in weeks 11-20 (over what ? - a 5 year average?) Is that right ?
Of which 41,105 have a COVID link of some sort ? So, the other excess deaths are not directly related to COVID at this time , but could well be indirectly linked in some way ? Is that correct so far ? |
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Moving on ..
Included within the excess deaths of 53,853 are 22,233 excess deaths in care homes and of those 22,233 , 11,636 have direct COVID links therefore leaving 10,957 excess deaths in care homes not at this stage directly linked to COVID. Is that correct ? |
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Where I'm struggling is the figure of 41,105 - This seems far higher than the official numbers (and the official numbers will include the deaths before week 11 )
Can you help me there ? |
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The lower figure is a confirmed test
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You can pull the data file from here
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales There is a separate file that provides the breakdown of excess deaths by setting. |
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Taking your figures at face value there are a total of 53,853 excess deaths so far.
41,105 are COVID linked leaving 12,748 as "not yet linked" , of which 10,957 are in care homes. |
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Excess deaths is the deaths in current year measured against the average of the last five years as you have stated.
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not all bad news doris might extend furlough to keep the natives quiet,couple of 100 tousand unemployed aint going to win doris any friends
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There are 49,138 excess deaths in England and Wales for the year to 15 May, 53,846 for the weeks 11 to 18.
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In 2018, there was around 542K deaths in the UK. So it's circa 10% over a regular year currently, but it's anticipated many of those deaths would have occurred within the year anyway (most were elderly and/or had comorbidity). There could also be excess deaths down the line due to delayed treatment/diagnosis and other lockdown related reasons. We won't know the true figure for a good while yet.
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Thanks for the information.
Appreciated. |
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542K in England and Wales that should read.
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616k for the UK in 2018
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it's anticipated many of those deaths would have occurred within the year anyway
by who? |
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Bloody hell Cider, The Telegraph has gone full lefty, they don’t reflect your opinion
 https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1265386964502667264?s=21 |
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read the comments on the post and tell me it reflects opinion
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Westminster voting intention:
CON: 44% (-4) LAB: 38% (+5) via @YouGov Cutting through  |
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Just the 4 and half years to wait
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so you made it up cider and tried to make it sound plausible by saying it's anticipated. thanks for confirming you are a troll and a bullsh1t artist, i had realised that some time ago anyway.
meanwhile last week one of the country's top statisticians drastically revised down his previous estimates and there are studies suggesting the average years of life lost was over a decade, i cant be bothered to find the thread but i put the links up at the time. |
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Next election is due in May 2024 but there will be one before that.
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the tories may go through two leaders before the next election, it all depends how bad the recession is.
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Tomorrow's front pages still dominated by Cummings.
Tories really doing an excellent job in drawing a line under this. Brewery. Piss up etc. |
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And if Cummings goes before the end of the year, I fear Boris won't make 2022 as PM
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well i watched a tv interview with one of the country's top statisticians about a week ago and have seen published papers. i am not a statistician, you are yet but with no factual basis you have presented a view not based on fact which you tried to make sound probable when it was just your view . you are the one who needs to get over yourself.
as i said, you have been trolling the forum. |
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i cant remember the exact number but i think it was 5-15% would die in the next year and as i said the average years of life left in one study was estimated as over a decade. i am surprised a professional statistician has not looked at any papers on the subject, relying instead on a presentation from about two months ago.
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I wrote it was anticipated, I didn't state it was a fact. I don't know about you but I'm still working, I'm not trawling through hours and hours of content as I will never be more expert than the so called experts in this field. A lot of it is part opinion, part forecast part fact. However, I'm ok at interpreting data if I do say so myself. For example I was the first person I saw or read anywhere writing that the death figures were being distorted by the weekend, including the 'experts' on various news broadcasts at the beginning of the crisis.
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another tory mp
Lockdown police break up gathering at North Wales Tory MP’s house Delyn MP Rob Roberts was not at the property at the time, a spokesman saidPolice broke up a gathering at the house of a North Wales MP over the bank holiday weekend. It is understood that people from another household were at Delyn MP Rob Roberts' home in Mold on Bank Holiday Monday - in an apparent breach of lockdown regulations. Two people were said to be visiting the property and were asked to leave by officers. It is reported by the Mirror that there were 40th birthday balloons and banners outside the house to mark Mr Roberts' wife Alexandra's birthday.Superintendent Mark Pierce of North Wales Police said: “In response to two reports of a possible breach of Covid 19 regulations we visited an address at Ty’n y Coed, Mold, yesterday (Monday, May 25). "When we called at the property two people visiting the house left following advice and no further action was taken.” Lockdown rules in Wales state that you must only travel if your journey is essential and visiting people in other households is not yet allowed. A spokesman for Mr Roberts said that the politician was not at the house. He said: "Rob Roberts was not present at the time. His family have been reminded of the guidelines set out by the government." It is understood that Mr Roberts spent the bank holiday weekend in London and returned to North Wales on Monday afternoon. It comes after he defended the Prime Minister's chief adviser Dominic Cummings, who has come under fire for travelling 260 miles from London to Durham. Mr Roberts had initially demanded a full investigation, writing on Facebook: "Of course it is right that we cannot have one rule for one and another for the rest ... If Mr Cummings has acted inappropriately according to an investigation, then he should go. "If an investigation concludes that he hasn’t, then he shouldn’t "The media doesn’t get to call the shots on who is hired and fired." But later he added: "Having watched the statement from Mr Cummings, I believe that he seemed to be entirely acting in the best interests of his child as a responsible husband and father .. It is now time for us all to move on from this issue." Tory MP Mr Roberts was elected as MP for Delyn in the 2019 General Election - unseating Labour MP David Hanson who has represented the constituency since 1992. |
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Calling Cider;
Don`t know if you`ve seen it, but there`s a Gormley poker game being arranged, if you`re interested? |
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the most relevant information I heard yesterday was that all these brexiteers,brexiteer mp,s cheering,lauding this tory government thinking cummings has some sort of masterplan ,it doesn't excist the masterplan is literally
nanny mugs cheap kids shoe,s lizz truzz,s ceramic teapots 2 stone of COD new young aids hired after the election were astounded that there was no all singing and dancing cybey,techno plan,it doesn't excist its a wing and prayer |
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Just had a chuckle thinking about how he promoted the idea that he foretold the pandemic last year.
Someone was on here a couple of days ago saying maybe Cummings is bright and important, essentially so important that it trumps any amorality. My answer was that his greatest gift has been in convinving the public that he's oh so smart, as well as getting them to rail at "elites" while he swans off to his parents estate or in-laws castle. To be fair, it's quite a trick to get so many people to buy into that without questioning if this guy is one of us or one of them. But hey, within hours of that, you get this. Mr Smartarse in the middle of the worst spell of the pandemic was taking time out to re-visit an old blog and insert a couple of paragraphs that would make him look clever. But in his haste, he isn't clever enough to realise how transparent that actually is nowadays and actually draws a light to it in his thrashing defence in the garden and forces his own government to come out and admit he lied. Beautiful stuff. |
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to be fair why wouldn't you, when 200 elected mp,s all over the age of 5 and dozens of right wing pundits think taking a 4 yr old on a 6o mile road trip to test your eyes is asensible cause of action,although its a criminal offence ,probably a domestic abuse offence and an insult to the intelligence of anyone over 5 yrs old,
imagine what he thinks is fair game behind the closed doors of downing street ,after getting away with that on live tv in front of the world,we,re a laughing stock through out the world,world social media in meltdown laughing at the uk |