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Do we need Lockdown?
Do we need Lockdown?
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Mexico cancer referrals had declined by 75% at one point a few weeks ago. That clearly has major implications going forward.
Not sure where your over 65 reference comes from? I didnt mention that. From what I can see (official stats) a third of deaths are over 85 and about 55% are over 80. You may think they will all live to be 100 but since 95% of deaths had underlying conditions I doubt it. All those cases are delaying the inevitable. Im not saying none wouldnt have lived another 3 years but the majority clearly wouldnt have. Im not sure what eveidence you have that deaths would have been much higher without social distancing although again I wasnt arguing against that at all. You could have done a lot of the things without a lockdown. That would have been the sensible solution. |
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Mexico
22 May 20 21:07 Joined: 25 Mar 03 | Topic/replies: 6,471 | Blogger: Mexico's blog Dot Between 35 & 55k of people have died of this virus in U.k avec social distancing. Under 10% have had virus So what do you think would happen if no social distancing- still 10% infection rate? Still "only" 50k dead? ^ Between 35 & 55k of people have died of this virus in U.k No they have not. In hospital many have died having tested positive for the genetic sequence that the Chinese said could be a marker for those who have been diagnosed with Covid19. They certainly have not died 'of the virus'. Under 10% have had virus Nonsense. One anti-body test suggests under 10% of the sample they took had anti-bodies. No information given on the millions who rejected the virus without even needing to develop anti-bodies. In terms of deaths the issue is have more than 10% of people in carehomes got anti-bodies and less than 10% of young fit people got anti-bodies? If they have then we have failed to protect the old/vulernable because we were diverted and not focused where we should have been to prevent deathes. |
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It
You are correct, the scientists who have spent years studying medicine and microbiology have forgotten to mention that millions of people got infected with this killer virus but they fought it off without the need of antibodies. Thank the world that you have reminded the planet's top scientists of this information. I hope wy out will publish your paper on the subject, will it be in nature? Could be a Nobel prize in it for you ziT - good work. I bet those professors will feel a bit silly when they read your post on Betfair chit chat forum. Nice work Sir InsiderTrader (only a matter of time) Maybe we should all clap at our doorstep for your great work IT? |
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No more clapping after next week
Those days are almost gone, they'll make a bank holiday for the NHS staff though, the corona virus bank holiday, held every year on the 23rd March no doubt  |
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Hopefully not 23rd March , we have too many bank holidays in Spring, how about an extra bank holiday in summer?
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mexico i have seen two articles related to the years of life left for those who died of covid, i have lost one which suggested on average over a decade for both men and women but have this one is from an actuary you may find of interest -
https://www.actuaries.org.uk/news-and-insights/news/what-difference-word-makes the long and the short of it is that they werent all going to die imminently. |
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Thanks Jolly
I will read tomorrow- you summary makes sense. I can't believe why IT thought they would all die within 36 months. There is still a life assurance industry for 60 year olds - that wouldn't exist if only 36 months to live. |
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Fancy hating old people, and hoping they are dead in 3 years.
WAC you are Mexico. |
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Has he mentioned Icke yet?
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Ibrahima
I'm not sure Trader hates old people. He just (wrongly) thought that those saved by social distancing will die in 3 years. In May just not understand the science . Not sure why you think IT hates old people- it is Sont who seems to want people to die by ignoring government advice. |
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The only basis for the 'hundreds of thousands of deaths' without lockdown is Ferguson's report.
I don't understand why people still refer to this as if it is some unimpeachable source. The only country where a prediction for deaths without lockdown was made for a country that did not lockdown was Sweden. The prediction was 40,000 dead by May 1st, and it is less than 4,000 three weeks later. |
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 when can I get my haircut |
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the day after edy
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Tobermory,
Your post that the only basis for hundreds of thousands of deaths is from one report is not true. Since that report there is much more data , every death, studies into how many currently infected, studies into how many have previously had Covid19 all adds to knowledge regarding the death rate & what would happen without social distancing. The spread of virus in UK is similar to what has happened in other countries, these countries are also gathering data, they also have people who understand microbiology & those who understand medical statistics looking at the data. They all point towards many many more deaths if virus is allowed to spread. Do you really believe that one paper predicting deaths was published a couple of months ago , then all scientists, statisticians just went home . |
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Mexico
22 May 20 21:32 Joined: 25 Mar 03 | Topic/replies: 6,479 | Blogger: Mexico's blog It You are correct, the scientists who have spent years studying medicine and microbiology have forgotten to mention that millions of people got infected with this killer virus but they fought it off without the need of antibodies. Thank the world that you have reminded the planet's top scientists of this information. I hope wy out will publish your paper on the subject, will it be in nature? ^ What are you talking about Mex? It is basic science that people with strong immune systems are less likely to be infected when exposed than those with weaker immune systems. |
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mexico this is the paper, not year peer reviewed, that gives over a decade - https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-75
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/05/02/would-most-covid-19-victims-have-died-soon-without-the-virus - a lovely graph david spiegehalter, one of our top statisticians has revised his estimate for how many covid fatalities would die in the next year I used to think this figure would be quite big but I’ve reduced my estimate now. I’m not going to put a precise figure on it, but I definitely think the proportion of those who would have died over the next year anyway would be well below a quarter, maybe 5 to 15 percent, rather than 'less than a quarter'. https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/05/22/1590156197000/Spiegelhalter-says-vast-majority-of-Covid-deaths-would-not-have-occurred-in-coming-year-/ |
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Well the average length of stay in UK care homes is about 2 years so its clear a big percentage of those would have died. Also worth noting 600,000 people die in UK every year and given about 55% of covid deaths were over 80 you would expect a lot of those to be in that figure. A 5-15% figure seems remarkably low to me all things considered.
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25% of covid related deaths have occurred in care homes. Life expectancy in care homes is 2 years. Being in a Home, largely means one is in lockdown already.
I wonder how many hospital covid related deaths were patients ALREADY in hospital. Therefore, already in a state of of lockdown. Locking down healthy under 50s seems mad. From day one we were told most would have mild or no symptoms. |
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Do the numbers distinguish between private care homes and Council run care/nursing homes?
The stay in Council gaffs is shorter they are ran as a conveyor belt designed for short stays |
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‘Self funders’ more like 4 years. That could be better care but also better health previous to entering a Home.
The Govt and media don’t seem to differentiate between Care and Nursing Homes. Life expectancy in NHs is more like 13 months. |
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Good post Jolly.
The economist article is interesting.. So they claim most (I.e. Over 50%) of those aged between 60&79 who died could of expected to have lived for another 10 years. Yep dot claims they would all have died within 3 years - he forgot to post a link to his data. |
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Mexico You can see quite clearly that ive referred to the over 80s who make up the majority of the deaths. Around 95% of these had other conditions and anyone who thinks they would live another 10 years must be very stupid. You also ignore the care home deaths where stats clearly show life expectancy is short.
Ive made no points about the younger victims who make up a smaller percentage of the deaths and its true they could well have lived longer but that doesnt change the reality that most who died were unlikely to have many years left. Its nonsense to suggest otherwise. |
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Oh the data is there for all too see from the ONS or the NHS Englands daily release. Were you going to show some proof for your 100,000s of lives saved statement.
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IT- you still haven't provided any link to back up your claim (which the top scientists forgot about) that millions of people had the virus but fought off the virus without antibodies.
You now claim.... It is basic science that people with strong immune systems are less likely to be infected when exposed than those with weaker immune systems. Again no link to back up this claim. So are you now saying that those with strong immune systems aren't even infected, the virus avoids them as it knows it would be fighting a losing battle. There is a theory that healthy people are infected, then their strong immune system kicks in, produces antibodies and fight off this virus attack. Still look forward to the links you are about to post to back up your post. Can you also let the professors working on Covid19 that they have forgotten about the millions of people who fought off the virus without producing antibodies- those guys seem to have not taken it into account. |
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Mexico I dont know why you say I said that all these people would have died within 3 years? What I said was that in 3 years time more lives would have been lost from other reasons because of the lockdown/economic damage worldwide. Thats totally different.
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Mexico
23 May 20 12:10 Joined: 25 Mar 03 | Topic/replies: 6,481 | Blogger: Mexico's blog IT- you still haven't provided any link to back up your claim (which the top scientists forgot about) that millions of people had the virus but fought off the virus without antibodies. You now claim.... It is basic science that people with strong immune systems are less likely to be infected when exposed than those with weaker immune systems. Again no link to back up this claim. So are you now saying that those with strong immune systems aren't even infected, the virus avoids them as it knows it would be fighting a losing battle. ^ Yes of course I am. Do you know anything about the immune system? Why do you think wherever the virus goes it is peaking after 4-6 weeks and declining? How else do you explain it is not passing through young households (my son in law had it and my daughter did not)? Countless cases of whole households not being infected when one person is infected. Then in carehomes, where people have weaker immune systems generally, it sadly rips through and infects lots of residents. |
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What is the national average life expectancy of an adult male/female in the UK, assuming all things being equal? How many in that aged group surpassed the national average life expectancy? And, compare this figure to the increase in death numbers of the same age group in this pandemic.
Is the above too difficult to decipher? |
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IT
The open University have written a short article about virus defence. Perhaps you can explain to them that they have forgotten to mention that for most people tge virus comes into a healthy body , then decides not to start infection as would be defeated anyway. The OU seem to suggest will take 3-4 days for human body to build up enough defences to defeat the virus. But IT you are saying the virus decides not to infect millions of people. Your work is very interesting, I hope you can get the OU to include it . Still lacking any links to anything to back up your "basic science " but clearly you know more than those crazy professors. https://www.open.edu/openlearn/science-maths-technology/biology/how-does-the-human-body-fight-viral-infection |
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life expectancy is all over the shop in the UK ...class,wealth,location,occupation ...you'd never get a meaningful relationship
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It
What do you mean by peaking at 4-6 weeks. The virus was in UK in January and peaked in April. Would have peaked later if we didn't have social distancing. |
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Mexico
23 May 20 12:51 Joined: 25 Mar 03 | Topic/replies: 6,483 | Blogger: Mexico's blog It What do you mean by peaking at 4-6 weeks. The virus was in UK in January and peaked in April. Would have peaked later if we didn't have social distancing. ^ After the first 20-100 deaths depending on population size. Check out all the charts country by country. The pattern is clear. |
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Mexico
23 May 20 12:47 Joined: 25 Mar 03 | Topic/replies: 6,483 | Blogger: Mexico's blog IT The open University have written a short article about virus defence. Perhaps you can explain to them that they have forgotten to mention that for most people tge virus comes into a healthy body , then decides not to start infection as would be defeated anyway. ^ The virus has no brain. It does not make decisions of the kind you are talking about. |
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Exactly IT , we agree.
So why did you post that stuff about millions not being infected because they were healthy. The virus doesn't have a brain, it infects a cell & makes a copy to infect another cell Those with strong immune systems get infected they fight it off. Hence those professors look for antibodies as a way of knowing who has had the virus. Still no link to back up the millions too healthy to be infected theory. |
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It
Brazil had 100 deaths by end of March, so when did they hit peak? It is hardly surprising that different countries following similar methods to deal with virus have peak at similar times is it. Rather shows the need for social distancing. Maybe should have been a week earlier in UK? |
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How many are dying in other countries that aren't really testing? if Mexico and Brazil anything to go by huge numbers not counted.
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If I remember correctly there was a distinct difference in contraction and deaths rates between care homes under early lockdown on their own accord (and against the advice of government) and those that did not and still receiving new clients discharged from hospitals.
I firmly believe lockdown can reduce the rate of infection from these virus thus death rate too. |
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There is concern lap about some countries having low number of deaths.
Iran was an early case, Tanzania more recently. Even Russia are using a "more scientific " approach to determine cause of death. If people die at home & don't have access to hospital/doctors in developing world there is every chance they won't be recorded on official Covid figures. |
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Mexico
23 May 20 13:17 Joined: 25 Mar 03 | Topic/replies: 6,486 | Blogger: Mexico's blog Exactly IT , we agree. So why did you post that stuff about millions not being infected because they were healthy. The virus doesn't have a brain, it infects a cell & makes a copy to infect another cell Those with strong immune systems get infected they fight it off. Hence those professors look for antibodies as a way of knowing who has had the virus. Still no link to back up the millions too healthy to be infected theory. ^ Are you suggesting that everyone that is exposed to the virus becomes infected and then develops anti-bodies? |
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I'm suggesting that the professors/doctors/statistician running antibodies tests are checking the number of people who have been infected by the virus.
You have made this claim (still waiting for a post to back it up) that these top medics don't know what they are doing and there are millions who were infected but their immune defence is so good they didn't need to produce antibodies. Yet the Open University seems to be completely unaware of this "basic science " which professor InsiderTrader talks about (but can't provide a link to back up theory) Provide a link IT. Simples. |
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Mexico
23 May 20 13:26 Joined: 25 Mar 03 | Topic/replies: 6,486 | Blogger: Mexico's blog It Brazil had 100 deaths by end of March, so when did they hit peak? It is hardly surprising that different countries following similar methods to deal with virus have peak at similar times is it. Rather shows the need for social distancing. Maybe should have been a week earlier in UK? ^ Brazil huge country with 210 million people. Different areas got infected at different times. Like Italy peaking before the UK because deaths started there earlier. Social distancing helps slow the spread but ultimately once 10-20% of the population have had it you have built up enough immunity when combined with people who will never get you have herd immunity. |