** FINALLY - ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS BY UNDERLYING CONDITION PUBLISHED **

----you-have-to-laugh---
14 May 20 14:26
Joined: 06 Jul 10
| Topic/replies: 8,178 | Blogger: ----you-have-to-laugh---'s blog
Shielding after lockdown

So you would have needed these figures by date to check that

^

Most started collecting from March 31st. Ischaemic Heart Disease was only from 1st May.

Fact 10% of deaths since 1st May was from Ischaemic Heart Disease worries me as those people should have been in lockdown for 6 weeks by the time they died.

In terms of shielding after June 30th things like COPD appear to be a no brainer.

I don't think Diabetes was on the shielding list!

lots of them are in care homes,living alongside the elderly,care in the community,
goes back to the higher the amount of the virus,droplets you get,the more severe the virus hits you

as I trade to tell IT,weeks ago but lots of fit under 4o,s in a care home rife with covid and more of them would suffer more severe consequences, as proved by nhs/ care workers been 6 times more likely to get severe bout of the virus

Doesn't matter when they started unless you have it blow by blow


As you suggest there are some no brainers for special shielding when most of us are getting back to normal

Don't think these Ethnicity figures will suit the Bame brigade!

That would be dependent on what you determine "suit" to mean along with adjusting raw numbers alongside proportion within the general population.

May 14, 2020 -- 3:39PM, stewarts rise wrote:

Don't think these Ethnicity figures will suit the Bame brigade!

Spot on think there's a rabbit away

Obesity was considered the 2nd worst factor recently , of course there would often be conditions associated with it.

be bundled in with the diabetes type 1 and 2 figure

Obesity and diabetes were actually in the moderate risk group originally.

15567 Other? Like what?

HGS
14 May 20 15:09
Joined: 12 Apr 05
| Topic/replies: 3,562 | Blogger: HGS's blog
15567 Other? Like what?

They could be the same things listed just not registered yet or different things.

The data is coming in hospital by hospital with delays. For instance we only have 362 from Ischaemic Heart Disease as data only from 1st May and 3,502 died since then in total. For 30,000 dead overall could estimate another 2600 ish of the 15567 are with Ischaemic Heart Disease. Crude calcs but it is all we have to go on right now.

Of course, it would be helpful if similar data could be released for those who have recovered.

stewarts rise
14 May 20 14:39
Joined: 22 Apr 04
| Topic/replies: 21,085 | Blogger: stewarts rise's blog
Don't think these Ethnicity figures will suit the Bame brigade!

^

White British are 79% of deaths and 79.8% of the population of England.

Considering the number of deaths in built up London (where White British is 44.9%) it looks like white British deaths might be overly represented and we might need a public inquiry into this.

I suspect if we went trust by trust we would find this to be the case.

Lots of old white folk slaughtered in care homes easily balance out non white deaths in front line workers

Add in other deaths not recorded as corona and balance could tip even further

Probably 40% of deaths not even been recorded as corona or the tests that were positive from private labs have not been recorded on national database so cannot be attributed

Has anyone died of flu since February? Pneumonia and cancers also not mentioned.

Old age kills a fair few....

----you-have-to-laugh---
14 May 20 15:30
Joined: 06 Jul 10
| Topic/replies: 8,192 | Blogger: ----you-have-to-laugh---'s blog
Lots of old white folk slaughtered in care homes easily balance out non white deaths in front line workers

^

Data presented here are hospital deaths in England where person had tested positive for virus.

Nothing to do with carehomes.

Also exposes the lie that more "bame" are suffering and dying compared to Caucasians

And it shows what a lie we've been dealing with, so bad that the media are scampering and changing up the narrative daily, it also explains why there was a sudden move to include care homes and wider community, only that just exposes the lie even more

May 14, 2020 -- 3:15PM, ----you-have-to-laugh--- wrote:

That the term underlying condition has been maxed out to distract gulliblefolk from the danger of corona.

Oh good god almighty

Been give all the proof in the world its a scam and still think the virus is real

Give me strength ffs

He doesn't accept proof he doesn't like

No idea if that's aimed at me or YHTL, Denzil

May 14, 2020 -- 5:26PM, SontaranStratagem wrote:

No idea if that's aimed at me or YHTL, Denzil

YHTL - he doesn't accept proof he doesn't like he has form

Wasn't most of the BAME stuff regarding NHS/care workers?

Depends what media you consume there's been many hateful woke/PC types claiming with evidence that coronavirus is racist

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/bame-covid-19-deaths-what-do-we-know-rapid-data-evidence-review/

I can't be ar$ed to wade through the data today but there's plenty out there which should be reliable enough.

I've read the words on the study you can see how the media has used such info,that and similar observational studies are likely what's triggered a release of full data by ONS.

'Some 26 per cent of people who have died since March 31 had diabetes'

How many healthy people died ?

Overall up to 12th May 5pm in English Hospitals...

1245 people with no pre-existing conditions
22708 people with pre-existing conditions

95% of deaths had pre-existing.

Well if other conditions count as underlying conditions and autism is a defined condition there is a long way to go before these figures have any true meaning

What about age and where is the cancer rate and heart disease?

95% is lower than I thought, would have said 98% myself but 95 is still pretty damn high lets be honest

So they've shut the world down for a virus that predominantly only effect old people with pre-existing conditions

And why had flu/influenza dropped? and why is there no cancer deaths?

Strokes where are the strokes  RTA how many hadays been knocked down by a bus

Top 6 were, diabetes, Dementia, COPD, Kidney disease, Heart disease & Asthma.

SS I agree with your basic premise to isolate the at risk 5% and let the 95% go about their normal lives. Madness to wreck the economy for the relatively small number at risk .

Just confirms what we already knew ie that anyone under 60 who has no underlying conditions and isnt a lazy fat slob hasnt got much to worry about.

The bbc have nothing on their website about the diabetes deathrate.

1 in 400

Well done on giving the economy to the parasites that's all I've got to say, people should have known better on day when the symptoms matched up with the flu ffs

And they now want you to avoid public transport and ride a push bike to work, "escooter".... Christ

Ibrahima Sonko
14 May 20 17:38
Joined: 03 Jun 07
| Topic/replies: 74,947 | Blogger: Ibrahima Sonko's blog
The bbc have nothing on their website about the diabetes deathrate.

^

Thats why we put in a request for the data.

So the Betfair forum members can be better informed.

macarony
14 May 20 17:11
Joined: 13 Mar 05
| Topic/replies: 4,801 | Blogger: macarony's blog
What about age and where is the cancer rate and heart disease?

^

Heart disease we have running at 10%

Cancer no info.

Age:

0 - 19 yrs    12
20 - 39            175
40 - 59            1917
60 - 79            9346
80+            12710

12 people under 20 have died but there are concerns about starting primary schools.

Strange world we now live in.

Bbc just had feature on news about it

Can't be long before it's on website


What % of population have underlying condition?

What % of population have no underlying condition but get diagnosed
On admission via corona?


Are these figures known?


Seem to remember diabetes is about 6% of population



Are there any combos that are super high risk?


Kidney problems has been mentioned before as targeted by virus

About 15 million people in England have a long-term condition (1). Long-term conditions or chronic diseases are conditions for which there is currently no cure, and which are managed with drugs and other treatment, for example: diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, arthritis and hypertension.

https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/projects/time-think-differently/trends-disease-and-disability-long-term-conditions-multi-morbidity

20,000 down, 14.8 million to go.

It is going to be extremely important that this data is properly and readily available so the advise given out at the end of June on shielding is rock solid.

They also need to use people the facts so they can make up their own minds on if they want to keep staying in.

The use of the data is going to key to keeping Covid deaths down whilst firing up the British economy.

Economy won't fire up if public don't feel safe

Beg pardon. 20,000 down, 14.98 million to go.

It's worth taking the time to lift the lockdown correctly and not sacrifice more lives for corporate profit

Basically, a third of the population is at very high risk of dying if catching this virus.

The next twelve months are going to be interesting to say the least.

Its not about corporate profits why cant you see that. Its about real peoples livelyhoods, their houses and lives and the public services our state can pay for.

if you add the asthma + pulmonary sufferers together you get 4803 .(But more than likely they were smokers who stopped when they developed their lung conditions) yet the death rate of current smokers world wide is .08 of 1%.
so smokers who give up smoking got very bad results yet the current smoker is next to immunity for the virus.
now that tells a real story.

screaming Please dont scare them anymore than they already are.

Continuing to pay those 15 million to stay indoors and immobile isn't going to help matters either.

Smokers and asthma sufferers seem to have a good outcome from the virus
compared to non Smokers and those without asthma.

People need to be out and about and getting healthy

Lets disinfect all the bacteria we need to interact with to increase our immunity ffs

All right, Dotchinite.

The optimistic way of looking at it is that there are 14.98 million people in England who ought to have died of this disease, but haven't.

It's all a bit of a mystery.

(I do still think there's a possibility that we'll be looking back on this spring one day as the good old days, before we appreciated just how dreadful the future was going to be.)

OF course theres a slight exaggeration when you say these 15 million "have a very high risk of dying".A more accurate way would be to say these 15 million have an increased risk compared to the remainder of the population who face a minimal chance of dying and shouldnt give it a second thought. However the vast majority of them will still survive despite their illnesses.

---you-have-to-laugh---
14 May 20 18:52
Joined: 06 Jul 10
| Topic/replies: 8,201 | Blogger: ----you-have-to-laugh---'s blog
Economy won't fire up if public don't feel safe

^

Exactly right.

It needs to be spelled out to people where the risks are.

For instance the people not wanting to go back to school.

Why? 12 under 20s have died and 9 had underlying conditions.

Lets get the schools open ASAP.

If teachers or kids live with people at high risk then maybe they do not go in. Be flexible. But lets get the 80-90% of kids and teachers that can go back resuming their education.

Lets not keep making the mistake of locking down the many who are low risk and failing to protect those who are at risk.

poor dotch renting or mortgaged to the eyeballs,cant sleep at night its only 295 billion,come down 60 billion over night

Viruses are a natural occurrence, nature wont allow them to spread like its being portrayed in the media

It would have been stopped naturally a long time ago, nature wont allow us to get ill all at the same time, and it certainly wont allow us all to die at the same

Nature of course can't stop us being stupid and killing one another, but its not daft is nature its intelligent enough to know it can't let things get out of hand

make your mind up it was a Chinese lab experiment gone wrong last week,now its nature

That's why your neighbour can be sick but you don't get whatever he got

All this b0llocks about "spreading" ffs

1tp if it was in a lab its nothing, it would be long gone

You need to get out into the fields and forests in summer, "pollen" immunity built early on when you go out and get exposed to it

Don't take any drugs, let the body build an immunity to the pollen, in fact pick up plants and smell them, pick up those fluffy pollen plants and breath it in

Dogs do it because they know instinctively its good for them

Usual crap from 1st time. Seems a very sad man to me.

the sad man, sat quite happy in his own castle,enjoying the spectacle

Taking death figures relating to population it looks like 0-60s have a 99.8% chance of survival.

The bbc still have nothing on their website about the diabetes deathrate.

99.8% chance?

You've got more chance of dying in a cup of soup ffs

In Italy, 88% of deaths are over 70 years of age.

Deaths under 60 years of age = 0.00165%

Basically that’s a zero risk.

I think a better way of looking at things is to look at the actual numbers in the population who are at risk rather than just the deaths. To me the number of deaths have suggested that the shielding groups were probably underestimated (bot a dig at anyone in an evolving situation).

It's no good just saying well if you aren't old or have chronic conditions from the deaths you have very little to worry about, though this is true it doesn't give an indication of the actual numbers involved in millions of the more susceptible.

It's hard to gauge exactly because of the multi risk factors when trying to estimate this number. ie we know a decent estimate of obese/morbidly obese but this will often have other linked conditions.A 70 year old with no conditions despite the age may well have a lower risk than someone in their 50's with diabetes who is also obese etc etc.

I think I have seen around 50% of over 60's have at least 1 chronic condition.When you add all the risks together throughout the whole population I wouldn't be surprised if around 20% of the population had some sort of significant increased risk from this disease.

That's still a pretty big shield.

The diabetes numbers are shocking in themselves regarding the deaths.

This disease for me though it wasn't needed has highlighted the problems are storing up with a more elderly population with chronic conditions rattling around needing more and more medications being/ seeded by an ever increasing rate of unhealthy people in the younger groups. It needs urgent attention.

Anyway off to the shops be interesting if more are donning masks.

Went to Sainsburys yesterday ;hardly anyone wearing mask. Most of we Brits adopt a common sense approach to the way we live our life.

In my view you only need a mask if you have a cold in which case you should probably be staying indoors anyway.

It's interesting that asthma sufferers seem to be at less risk than you'd think. Maybe it's because asthma is an over-active inflammatory response, so whatever it is within these people which triggers asthmatic inflammation it's also going after the coronavirus, and dealing with the virus before it spreads to all parts of the body.

I wonder whether hay fever sufferers will see a similar protective effect (and whether anyone will think of asking patients for the relevant data).

Smoking also triggers increased inflammation (as seen by higher numbers of white blood cells), so the same mechanism might be at work here. Chronic inflammation seems to persist even once you've given up the ciggies, which might explain why past smokers are nearly as well protected against this virus as current smokers.

If you're a current smoker, this would be the ideal time to stop. You really would be getting the best of both worlds.

I'd say if anything LESS wearing masks today in the supermarket.

Ibuprofen reduces inflammation and we were told do not use ibuprofen if you have symptoms of coronavirus

Yes. Inflammation is the result of the body attacking the virus. If you take an anti-inflammatory (like ibuprofen), then you might be shutting down one of the body's defences against the virus.

Paracetamol works differently, by stopping you feeling the unpleasant effects of inflammation, rather than stopping the inflammation itself. Which is why it's the recommended drug for the virus.

I don't know. I'd be happy to be corrected on all this. But there has to be some good reason why asthmatics and smokers, past and present, seem less affected by this than you'd expect. I'd love to know what the situation is with hay fever sufferers, just as another piece of evidence.

deaths arnt the only story,you don't either die or walk out for a jog around the park,theres 100,s/1000, of people suffering all sorts of complication lives ruined for forseable future,muscel wastage,stroke like recoveries, and as yet unknown internal injuries

^^^^^ correct, the talk on here is binary, its either death or everything is hunky dory, the reality is far more complicated. the doctor who treated bozo said covid will be our generations's polio. there may well be nasty long term effects for many survivors. what started out as an illness of the lungs turned out to also affect kidneys, liver, brain, eyes and even toes. the long term cost to society and the health service will be huge,

I wondered if coughing might be dislodging the virus before
It takes a hold.

Not saying it is, but another connection between some smokers and some asthmatics

Inflammation is an even better fit though given the ibuprofen advice

.
https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/05/15/we-could-open-up-again-and-forget-the-whole-thing/

Neil Ferguson should be strung up.

The South Korean government was extremely proud to have resisted pressure to drop the very basic concepts of democracy.

The epidemic in South Korea was over by March, the number of cases was down by 13 March. In Wuhan they also did not shut down the economy. Wuhan had restricted travel out of the city. They stopped train services and blocked the roads. They did not restrict anything social within the city until very late. We have seen, then, in Wuhan and South Korea, if you do not do anything, the epidemic is over in three weeks.

I do not believe it is factually correct that South Korea did not do anything.

Ibrahima

I think its damage limitation now, they've been absolutely rumbled with this and its a case of just trying to herd everyone back to work and get the kids back to school without causing utter mayhem

I can't believe they attempted this you can't fake a pandemic ffs

Where has that little s*** weazel Billy Gates gone? AKA buffalo bill

These people need finding and stringing up, but no doubt once they give everyone their jobs and sporting distractions back this will be forgotten about in 6 months time

If they try this on in winter again people should and need to arrest the little bas*ards

Fauci with his stupid mask on

People have had enough, we are making are own way back to normal, slowly but it is coming whatever the government or the opposition party (the bbc) tell us.

Enough data now to know its nothing worse than flu anyway

Get the place opened up ffs no doubt the media will jump on it when people do force the open up, they'll be there talking down to people about how great it is to be back to normal and all that BS

The latest numbers came out yesterday for up to 5pm on 19th May.

Received treatment for a Mental Health condition    4%
Learning Disability and or Autism    2%
Asthma    7%
Chronic Kidney Disease    15%
Chronic Neurological Disorder    3%
Chronic Pulmonary Disease    15%
Dementia    18%
Diabetes    26%
Rheumatological Disorder    3%
Ischaemic Heart Disease    11%
Other    71%

Heart disease is creeping up as more data comes out.

09Joined: 25 Aug 05 | Topic/replies: 12,218 | Blogger: InsiderTrader's blog
Only been noting from Ischaemic Heart Disease since May 1st

From the date the measure was introduced 10% of deaths had Ischaemic Heart Disease.

These are the percentages of deaths since the condition was listed that had the condition.....

Other    70%
Diabetes    26%
Dementia    18%
Chronic Pulmonary Disease    15%
Chronic Kidney Disease    14%
Ischaemic Heart Disease    10%
Asthma    7%
Received treatment for a Mental Health condition    4%
Chronic Neurological Disorder    3%
Rheumatological Disorder    3%
Learning Disability and or Autism    2%







10% to 11% on rounded figures, might be significant increase, might not.

Revised or simple cumulative? Do we know.

I suppose it's harder to move % figures as death rate decreases

All these figures but I cannot see why more people are not questioning the way the daily figure associated with the 'new infections' is being questioned.

Surely, the more tests carried out the more the number of cases?

Hence, should not the daily figure - and the rolling 7 day average - be a percentage of the number of tests carried out?

After all, 5000 new infections from 100,000 tests is 5% but 6,000 from 150,000 tests is 4%.

If the number of tests keep going up, then we will never leave lockdown until there are now new infections because within 62 million people nationwide someone will always have CV19.

Hence, the way the figures are shown now would indicate an increase in infections but measured as a percentage it isn't.

I keep sending this question in to the Government daily briefing website to be read out. But if ever an exercise was designed to give a government the chance to peddle their latest idea / achievement etc etc this is it, so my legit question will never be asked.

The most recent slides I could find are from a few days ago
.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/885918/2020-05-18_COVID-19_Press_Conference_Slides_-_for_publication__1_.pdf

The only rolling average graph I've seen them present recently is the deaths one

They are showing a graph with number of daily tests and cases - mainly for the tests I think

I hope they are not using total new cases as a means for planning.

They are, as you suggest, subject to new testing conditions.

The R number they quote is going to be based on the random sampling they started doing a few weeks ago.  That sampling should give a decent estimate of the % of population that has covid at any one time (it was 1 in 400 I remember seeing) and then the change in that over time gives you the R.  Even then I don't think it's a trivial calculation although I guess it will be 1 if there is no change

The R number and the number of new cases are irrelevant figures.

R is impossible to measure with any degree of accuracy given that we have no idea on the number of new cases unless we test large random samples on a regular basis.

on a lighter note 2 that made me chuckle

be glad when pubs reopen so I can drink less, ,

worrying in a world pandemic when you see more of Robbie savage than the prime minister 

The R number includes care home infections and is around 3 weeks old when given out.

Hence, it has been distorted very badly in last 3 weeks because if you go back 3 to 4 weeks the virus was at its worse in care homes.

The trend is nursing home infections is now on the wane, thankfully, so the R figure from next week onwards should show this reduction. If it doesn't then we will have an issue.

GoBallistic,

Yup, a search of the government website for easy to read tests against infections is hard to find.

Indeed, the way the same website splits tests between labs and elsewhere leads to confusuion.

I do hope that the PM and his pals are not being blinded by the scientists who do love a graph or two...providing it supports their current views!

I do hope the scientists are not being blinded by boris
And his pals as suggested.