Social distancing as far as possible to slow the spread so NHS not overrun.

Protect the old/vulnerable.

Remember 90% dead are older and also 90% had pre-existing conditions.

Protecting the fit youngsters is not necessary.

A vaccine may never ever come.

Under this Ferguson/Boris plan what happens then?

lurka 10 May 20 10:54   

Note that Hitchens offers no scientific evidence or evidence from any experts that not locking down when the UK did would have avoided catastrophe or that releasing lockdown now wouldn't result in the spread getting out of hand again very quickly.

I've not read everything he's written, but one of his scientific arguments which he has presented from more than one source, is that the peak number of deaths (that is based on the actual dates of death, not when they were reported), occurred on April 8th, and given the time allowed for incubation, infection and decline to death, you would have expected the peak date to have occurred after this date, given the lockdown date of March 23rd.

Now people may try to debunk this, but you said he hadn't offered any scientific evidence when clearly he has.

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-death-data-in-england-update-24th-april/

One? It would be easier to name the ones where it wasn't. How about all the countries who locked down? Again, I am not talking about right now, I am talking about when they locked down.

George, maybe so, but I am talking about what he wrote in that article. He is not a scientist.

What is your point IT?

you've got to like the way people who didn't want the lockdown,use the figures brought about by the lockdown as an argument for not having one, and not the figures we would have got without a lockdown,most clearly seen by sweeden and its very near neighbours

lurka 10 May 20 11:21   
George, maybe so, but I am talking about what he wrote in that article. He is not a scientist.

lurka, so now you've changed tack from him not having presented any scientific evidence, to him not being a scientist?

I don't think he's ever claimed to be scientist, but he's one of the few journalistic voices calling out the government over their lockdown policy, and he's evidently spent a lot of time studying data and reading what scientists have said. The April 8th peak figure has been one of his main arguments, which evidently you were oblivious to, so not sure why you think you're qualified to judge him?

Mexico
10 May 20 11:21
Joined: 25 Mar 03
| Topic/replies: 6,434 | Blogger: Mexico's blog
Hitchens is just having a go at the government - easy to do as they have been fairly average . He has failed to give a balance of tge pros & cons of opening up the country so we can decide if that is a price worth paying.

He hasn't mentioned number of deaths we would expect if we "protected" 3 million people & pretty much let other people get on with things as before.
It appears death rate is just under 1.5% of those infected- maybe could get to 1% if we are very careful in screening a few million vulnerable people. That 1% rate does assume everyone who needs hospital treatment gets it.

So if half the UK population are infected (just over 30m) we would expect 300k deaths. Can the NHS cope with this all happening in a 6 month period?


We may decide that is a price worth paying but should be honest rather than just saying Boris is useless & must end lockdown.

^

It is no where near one percent.

Germany study suggest 0.2%-0.37%.

Iceland numbers where they test many more and have just ten deaths is around 0.2%.

Of course overall rate not that relevant as it is about 0.00001% in young children and 14% in over 90s and 40% for those with bad cardiac issues.

The key to getting the rate down is protect those who have a high chance of dying whilst you build up immunity in those who do not have a high risk.

Alternative is to stop everything until as when vaccine is found (it may never be found).

Eventually the vulnerable will be bored waiting and come out. If there is not herd immunity or vaccine or great drugs by then we will see horrible amounts of death.

From the start Hitchens said the Lockdown was a grave error.He has NEVER moved from that stance so don't criticise the man for aftertiming.

Police in Norwich have spoken severely to a teenager for going round the suburbs in a 17th Century plague doctor’s mask, like a huge crow’s head, and a long black cloak.


Kwality!

I loved that

George, I was talking about the article the subject of this thread. He didn't present any scientific evidence in that article.

I didn't say he has never presented any scientific evidence in any article he has ever written, so I don't get what your point is.

In any event he is wrong on that point. On April 29 the UK added over 3,000 deaths to its total and backdated them to the correct date.

The death peak was 1172 on April 21. It didn't peak or start to decline on April 8. It happened 2 weeks later, which completely blows his argument out of the water.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8273783/UK-announces-coronavirus-deaths-hospitals.html his own newspaper covered it the following day.


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

Need to be a wee bit careful with that data set lurka, those are the reported dates which as a lag with actual date of death.

How do you mean Angoose? Are you saying that more deaths could be added to April 8?

What is the latest date for which we have full info then?

lurka 10 May 20 10:54 

Note that Hitchens offers no scientific evidence or evidence from any experts that not locking down when the UK did would have avoided catastrophe

When he evidently has done previously

lurka 10 May 20 11:55   

I didn't say he has never presented any scientific evidence in any article he has ever written, so I don't get what your point is.


As I said in my 11.18 post, I didn't say what he has presented as evidence couldn't be debunked (and if you want to challenge him with those links on twitter, I'm sure you will receive a courteous reply, as many have previously), but you clearly were mistaken with your assumption in your initial post.

lurka, this is the link you posted at 11.55


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8273783/UK-announces-coronavirus-deaths-hospitals.html

This is a paragraph from that report:

"Of the deaths announced today, 140 happened on Tuesday, April 28, and the rest were spread across the seven weeks between March 12 and yesterday. April 8 remains the outbreak's peak, with 863 people dying.
"

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The trouble with the peak is you only see it from the other side in terms of policy at the time this would have been impossible to summise.

Hopefully though this suggests as some have theorised recently that the transmission of this virus greatly slows after a much lower percentage of infections to the population (unless another explanation can be offered such as seasonal effect). Again most of the science was not suggesting this at the time of policy.

As for social distancing having little effect this again was not known and was not a theory put forward at the time.

BEIJING (Reuters) - Chinese authorities reported on Sunday what could be the beginning of a new wave of coronavirus cases in northeast China, with one city in Jilin province being reclassified as high-risk, the top of a three-tier zoning system.

Jilin officials raised the risk level of the city of Shulan to high from medium, having hoisted it to medium from low just the day before after one woman tested positive on May 7.

Trader...

The data from Australia & New Zealand suggest a death rate far higher than 0.2 to 0.37 - both over 1%

My criticism of the Article was that he didn't bother with any stats, any of the problems of opening up UK.

If he had said - rate is 0.3% quoting xxxxxxxxxx and then said 120,000 deaths is a price worth paying then fair enough. If any government does go down that route they would need to be fairly confident they have the correct rate. Would get ugly if then 120k deaths are acceptable & health service can cope only to find out we get 400k deaths and health service can't cope.

Still feel Hitchins has not been honest by failing to mention the downside of his plan.

Strid

I think that question has been asked (or at least some government/ science published)

Basically said over 100k would die & very difficult/ impossible to keep people separate.

For example a 50 year old teacher is healthy but their husband is in high risk group. NHS staff & care homes staff would pretty much need to leave their families and live in work accommodation.

The government would like to open schools especially for the years taking exams next summer. They are having issues with partially opening just one industry (& education is something they have near total control over).

Don't think it helps that government score on how well performed is average at best, lots of death, testing poor last month, PPE still a mess.

Eh the only evidence I've seen of a peak on 8 April is in relation to England, not the UK. https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-death-data-in-england-update-9th-may/

That is not the whole of the UK. I know Worldometers isn't entirely accurate but that's mainly because of the ridiculous way deaths are reported in about 16 different ways in the UK (4 countries, 4 settings, 2 or 3 different bodies reporting them). But they update their data when the UK does and their figures cover the whole of the UK which the article Hitchens quoted does not. I'm not sure there is accurate data for the whole of the UK anywhere at any time, but I'd be fairly certain Worldometers is more reliable for the whole of the UK than an article that relates to England only.