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10 May 20
00:12
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30 Jan 05
Die Ansteckungsrate beim neuen Coronavirus ist in Deutschland laut Robert Koch-Institut (RKI) wieder über die kritische Marke 1 gestiegen. Die sogenannte Reproduktionszahl liege mit Datenbestand 9. Mai, 0 Uhr bei 1,10, wie das RKI in einem am Samstagabend veröffentlichen Situationsbericht schreibt.
According to the Robert Koch Institute the novel coronavirus infection rate has once more risen above the critical 1.0 mark, A situation report released by the Institute on Saturday evening revealed that the so-called reproduction number was 1.1 as of 00.00 hrs on 9 May.
https://www.welt.de/vermischtes/article206504969/Corona-Zahlen-Reproduktionszahl-in-Deutschland-steigt-auf-1-1.html
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Some other snippets from the paper:
In der Fleischfabrik Westfleisch in Coesfeld hat sich das Corona-Virus in den letzten Tagen rasant verbreitet: Mindestens 151 Mitarbeiter sind infiziert.
The corona virus has spread rapidly in the Westfleisch meat factory in Coesfeld in the past few days: at least 151 employees are infected.
Einem erneuten Demonstrationsaufruf gegen die Coronavirus-Beschränkungen sind am Samstag in Stuttgart mehrere Tausend Menschen gefolgt.
On Saturday Stuttgart saw several thousand people again demonstrating against the coronavirus restrictions.
Bei einer Demonstration in Berlin gegen die Einschränkungen wegen der Corona-Epidemie vor dem Reichstag nahm die Polizei 30 Personen vorläufig fest. Unter den Teilnehmern war auch Vegankoch Attila Hildmann.
The Reichstag in Berlin saw a demonstration against the restrictions due to the corona epidemic, with the police arresting 30 people. Vegan chef Attila Hildmann was among the participants.
According to the Robert Koch Institute the novel coronavirus infection rate has once more risen above the critical 1.0 mark, A situation report released by the Institute on Saturday evening revealed that the so-called reproduction number was 1.1 as of 00.00 hrs on 9 May.
https://www.welt.de/vermischtes/article206504969/Corona-Zahlen-Reproduktionszahl-in-Deutschland-steigt-auf-1-1.html
_________________
Some other snippets from the paper:
In der Fleischfabrik Westfleisch in Coesfeld hat sich das Corona-Virus in den letzten Tagen rasant verbreitet: Mindestens 151 Mitarbeiter sind infiziert.
The corona virus has spread rapidly in the Westfleisch meat factory in Coesfeld in the past few days: at least 151 employees are infected.
Einem erneuten Demonstrationsaufruf gegen die Coronavirus-Beschränkungen sind am Samstag in Stuttgart mehrere Tausend Menschen gefolgt.
On Saturday Stuttgart saw several thousand people again demonstrating against the coronavirus restrictions.
Bei einer Demonstration in Berlin gegen die Einschränkungen wegen der Corona-Epidemie vor dem Reichstag nahm die Polizei 30 Personen vorläufig fest. Unter den Teilnehmern war auch Vegankoch Attila Hildmann.
The Reichstag in Berlin saw a demonstration against the restrictions due to the corona epidemic, with the police arresting 30 people. Vegan chef Attila Hildmann was among the participants.
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it will be 1.1 again here before you can say Captain Tom
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After yesterdays and todays fcuking idiots the infection rates will be rising,these people want locking up,thick as fcuk..
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I know it's a Daily Mail link but the story is not an opinion it's all quoting a Swedish expert and he speaks sense.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8300631/Swedish-Covid-19-expert-says-lockdown-merely-delaying-inevitable.html Anyway thanks Screaming. I know your post wasn't serious, it was entirely so we could all imagine in our heads the German "Attila The Vegan Hun" :) |
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Oh great the R is now taking off
Wait until they bring in the alert system here, constant updates on the R, "R now 0.6 up from 0.5, it is advisory you take extra care and maybe not travel today" |
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So what are Germany going to do about it ?
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It's the ultimate argument against nominative determinism: a son named Atilla who grows up to be a celebrity vegan.
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*Attila
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How exactly do they calculate this R thing ?
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"Absolut kein Verständnis" - Polizei entsetzt über Verhalten der Demonstranten
Die Corona-Beschränkungen werden in Deutschland gelockert. Tausenden Menschen reicht das nicht. Sie zog es am Samstag auf die Straße. In Berlin griff die Polizei gewaltsam ein, in München drückten die Beamten ein Auge zu, in Thüringen demonstrierte ein Ex-Ministerpräsident mit. Deutschlandweit haben am Samstag Tausende Menschen gegen die wegen der Corona-Pandemie verhängten Beschränkungen demonstriert. Auf dem Alexanderplatz in Berlin kam es nach Polizeiangaben zu gewalttätigen Auseinandersetzungen zwischen Demonstranten und Beamten. Auf dem Münchner Marienplatz und in Stuttgart fanden ebenfalls Großkundgebungen statt. Weitere Versammlungen wurden unter anderem aus Bremen, Köln, Dortmund und mehreren sächsischen Orten gemeldet. "Absolutely senseless" - police horrified by demonstrators' behaviour The corona restrictions have been relaxed in Germany. That's not enough for thousands of people. On Saturday they hit the streets. In Berlin the police intervened violently, in Munich officers turned a blind eye, in Thuringia an ex-head of government demonstrated. Throughout Germany, thousands of people demonstrated on Saturday against the restrictions imposed by the corona pandemic. Police reported violent clashes between demonstrators and officers on Alexanderplatz in Berlin. Major rallies also took place on Munich's Marienplatz and in Stuttgart. Further gatherings were reported from Bremen, Cologne, Dortmund and several locations in Saxony. |
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 Stuttgart yesterday https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article207867505/Protest-gegen-Corona-Politik-Absolut-kein-Verstaendnis-Polizei-entsetzt-ueber-Verhalten-der-Demonstranten.html |
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Fake news surely? Germans are always happy and compliant, I am certain the BBC would tell us if it were otherwise.
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Johnny The Guesser10 May 20 09:23Joined: 15 Apr 02 | Topic/replies: 804 | Blogger: Johnny The Guesser's blog
How exactly do they calculate this R thing ? The answer is in your user name. No. That's a bit unfair. If you have mass testing in a particular location, and you have an estimate of how long it takes for an infection to show up in a test, you can also estimate how many people are being infected by each carrier. The greater the volume and consistency of testing in one particular location, the more accurate an R figure you get for the disease in the location in question. |
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Not sure I understand that explanation ...but will run with it ...So where is this mass testing taking place in the UK ?..
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Track
The Government wants to track Covid-19 in the population to try to understand the current rate of infection alongside how many people have developed antibodies to the virus. Mr Hancock said 25,000 people will take part in the first phase of a large-scale testing study, with plans to expand it to up to 300,000 over the next 12 months. For the study, initial findings from which are expected in early May, all participants will be tested to see if they currently have coronavirus, while adults in 1,000 of the households will provide blood samples to find out what proportion of the population has developed antibodies. |
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So you need frequent testing of a large number of random people ? - to see how the virus moves ?...I can understand that.
But - the UK hasn't done anything close to that - so how are they currently accurately calculating R ? They must be best guessing ! - There is no other explanation. |
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They are, and then people on here spend months of their lives trying to make graphs and tables from the guesses. What fun.
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Johnny: Say the average time for symptoms to appear in an infected person is a week. If you test everyone in a town on the first of the month and you have 100 people positive, then 110 on the eighth of the month, then you have an R value of 1.1.
But it's way more complicated than that in practice. How long does it take to recover? Are people moving in and out of the area? And is it valid to extend that result to the whole country? So it really is a guess (or an 'estimate', if you like). There's a good argument that with all that estimating going on, there's not much value in carrying out all that testing, if the purpose is only to calculate the spread of the disease. The only real way of seeing how well your policies have been doing is by looking at how many more deaths overall there have been this year compared to other years. The trouble is, that takes time, and you only get the answer weeks later. And Laura and Beff want answers NOW. Will the minister apologize NOW? |
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But huge decisions are going to be made that will affect (or cost) so many peoples lives on the basis of R moving up or down by a fraction of a percentage point...and R is just a best guess !
Mind blowing stuff. |
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Of course the r rate is only an estimate? How can it be anything else?
It's predominantly political journalists asking these questions on national broadcasts who literally have no clue. Sophy Ridge this morning, what is the r rate in care homes today?  |
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All about leading and lagging indicators, innit.
Lagging indicators are typically “output” oriented, easy to measure but hard to improve or influence while leading indicators are typically input oriented, hard to measure and easy to influence. Let me illustrate this with a simple example: For many of us a personal goal is weight loss. A clear lagging indicator that is easy to measure. You step on a scale and you have your answer. But how do you actually reach your goal? For weight loss there are 2 “leading” indicators: 1. Calories taken in and 2. Calories burned. These 2 indicators are easy to influence but very hard to measure. When you order lunch in a restaurant the amount of calories is not listed on the menu. And if you are me, you have no clue how many calories you burn on a given day. |
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My question is what will Germany do....they certainly won't let it escalate so will presumably reapply strict lock down.
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Good luck with that.
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I suppose the point I am making is that the R rate is quoted (and understood by many) as though it is a fact , which then somehow justifies huge social and economic decisions - when is it currently nothing of the sort - not even close in my book.
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They could have a huge problem in Germany now, posy. Public opinion (and actions) are going in the opposite direction to the spread of the virus.
I mean, just look at that picture from Stuttgart. How are you going to put that attitude back in the bottle? Especially now it's all over the papers. |
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Yes Johnny that's larger due misunderstanding in the media. The r rate is however the best indicator available, as you can't test the whole population on a daily basis.
People should also consider (rather important) the starting point. The higher the amount of infections the easier it is to keep the estimated r rate below 1. |
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The higher the amount of infections the easier it is to keep the estimated r rate below 1.
In other words, the more infections you have, the sooner it disappears. |
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hancock through the likes of serco trying to employ 17,000 tracers on phonelines, they think this live saving,live enhancing job is worth £9 an hr,same as bloke at sky/virgin fobbing you off,
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1st time poster: Could you do what I do with German quotations, and put a translation under your posts?
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The medical field has unlimited opportunities for nominative determinism because of the many specialties. Pictured here, Dr. Richard (Dick) Chopp is an Austin urologist who is known for performing vasectomies. Really. Other doctors at the same urology clinic include Dr. Hardeman and Dr. Wang.
I know, I should grow up  |
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Unbeleivable they are still trying to peddle this 'R' number as some sort of scientific thing.
The reality is 'the science' on this whole situation has failed. Those who produce 'the science' do not agree with eachother or even themselves as they break their own rules. Plane restrictions and face masks pointless one moment and essential the next. You could not make it up. They are guessers. |
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It appears you have a very receptive audience at your disposal today, make hay
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So, we get the R below 1... isn't that just prolonging the agony, postponing the inevitable?
We were told that Lockdown was needed to flatten the curve and increase medical capacity, with that achieved what in the name of f*** are we now doing? ... Pursuing some clown world third way of hoping the virus miraculously disappears in a puff of smoke? any help appreciated! |
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Science is too much of a broad term in this context IT. It's scientific forecasting rather than scientific fact. But you can't base policies on epidemics if you only wait for the full facts, as it's too late. So forecasting and modelling is all we have.
Much of it is now logic. We can see from the data that the interventions were effective, we can also see the downward trend. So logically we can start to reverse the interventions but in such a way that doesn't drive the graphs up again. |
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But survival of the fittest is what we will get. In the absence of a vaccine herd immunity is not an option it is inescapable fact. No amount of shaping the curve can deny that.
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The impact of this virus will only be measured over many years, yet everyday it's the same MSM facilitated circle jerk over short term data sets that are absolutely meaningless in a grand scheme that is yet to play out fully.
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