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26 Apr 20
13:06
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25 Dec 05
reckons if we send younger people back to work whilst trying to shield vulnerable ,will result in a 100,000 deaths
scientist,s in usa funded by bill gates predicting over 60,000 deaths by august on current trends for uk
scientist,s in usa funded by bill gates predicting over 60,000 deaths by august on current trends for uk
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you'll win nothing with kids
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Ferguson totally discredited. Best do the opposite of whatever he says.
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Anyone with a brain.
It was only a couple of weeks ago he claimed that deaths from this could be as low as 7000. They were 4900 at the time with daily deaths running at in excess of 600 and the peak forecast over a week ahead. It appears he has previous form for making way out predictions and he is best ingnored. |
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Think it was schools and work,it maes perfect sense obviously strokes and heart attacks are appearing 7x likely amongst 30-50 year olds with the virus,there won't just be huge deaths but huge health problems for younger people as well not excluding the 1000s with permanent lung damage..
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Have you a link to that 7X likely for strokes statement. Or the 1000s with permanent lung damage.
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His predictive modelling has failed in the past. You have to wonder what motives the government have to rely on his modelling again.
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You are all pissing in the wind at this stage.
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Even the scientists who have much more experience in disease are working with too many unknowns regarding the data sets to form conclusive agreements, their estimates for infections at this stage an example where there has been a huge range which greatly affects any ability to predict what's actually happening out there.
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Thing is everybody is shocked by 100,000 deaths but in the context of 600,000 UK deaths every year and stories of 100 million worldwide facing starvation it really isnt that much. It certainly doesnt change the fact that we need to come out of lockdown at some point in the coming weeks.
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In this interview yesterday...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6cYjjEB3Ev8 he did not sound confident at all. To be fair I think he is trying his best but completely out of his depth. He refuses to budge on his assumption despite them being found to be wrong in New York and Sweden. Nothing to with the negative effects of lock down in terms of health and economic well being are modeled. |
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He thinks we should follow South Korea.
Trouble is the cat is out of the bag. Millions in the UK are already infected. 10.7 key works continue to move about and must be spreading it. Contract tracing and isolating.... too late for that... cannot unboil an egg. |
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The figures were ranging from 200-500K doing nothing and some of the assumptions of the models (as with so much of the science out there) have been questioned.
There's not enough real evidence yet for anyone to be able to give a confident analysis of where we actually are without still having to make big assumptions and experts all over the place are completely conflicting one another as they are using different assumptions. Of course we can't stay in lockdown but it's the extent of release which will be debated. |
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*10.7m
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He should stick to studying mints
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Very simplistic bait today IT, not up to your usual standard.
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Angoose how many weeks/months of the current lock down would it take to reduce new cases to point we could South Korea style track, trace and isolate given where we are?
And by then what percentage of the population will have had it anyway? |
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Estimates around 35-40,000 deaths and infections today from one Oxford source saying 2-6 million infected.
You've had wildly ranging estimates of infections As I say you can cherry pick what suits your agenda but there are too many unknowns at this stage for any predictions not to be hugely based on assumptions Of course experts like Insider Trader are looking at all the correct data.  |
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"Estimates around 35-40,000 deaths and infections today from one Oxford source saying 2-6 million infected."
Sounds very reasonable, but then that's a prediction of the here and now, rather than the future. 2-6 million is a very wide spread, for the current situation, which when predicted into the future will extrapolate wildly. That's why an accurate nationwide antibody test is so important. |
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Deaths in UK so far around 20,000 in hospitals.
At Ferguson's rate high death rate (0.9%) that means 2.2m already had it. At the more realistic NYC death rate (0.5%) that means 4m already infected. Another 10000-20000 in the community probably died... Pushes estimates up to 4m-8m already. The number percentage in London will be far higher and South west far lower. With those numbers I fail to see how you can go back to track and trace now. Also if they are looking at daily cases as their metric to open up they will be up against increasing numbers rather than smaller as more testing is rolled out. |
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No the deaths were adding in the deaths outside of hospital if you are to believe these estimates.
IF |
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It just seems weird Fergusion says we cannot protect the vulnerable properly so we need to stop younger people going out to stop the spread.
Surely for the economic cost of keeping lock down on the fit and young we could pay literally spend billions to put a ring of steel around the vulnerable. |
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Is he just pushing the average age of deaths down and relying on herd immunity? 100k deaths with a younger average age is no better than the 200-500k deaths from doing nothing, where the average age of deaths would be much higher.
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On ye olde twitter, John Nicholson has asked the question of whether you'd go to a match tomorrow if the lockdown were lifted. Approx 85% so far saying they wouldn't.
The capitalist amplifiers can scream all they want about the need to get back to normal or how long it may or may not take but the simple fact is you could open everything tomorrow but people just aren't going to turn up. All you're going to do is get people back on the payroll, get debtors on the phone and drive businesses into the ground. ...Hmm. Unless that's the plan all along. Orchestrate a rush back knowing it will cripple and close a lot of firms who won't be able to survive and leaving the way clear for the bigger firms to have a clear run when it's all over. Nice. |
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Insider Trader it's pointless comparing countries we have seen the variances, studies vary massively.
You need to concentrate on the data in this country. An early Oxford research claimed 50% could already have been infected late march, this looks a ridiculous outlier now. Cherry pick from here there and everywhere and extrapolating from other countries to fit us is daft TBH. One we get more data you'll get a truer picture and these wild variances in assumptions will start to converge. |
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Hardly anyone under 50 who is fit is going to die. A handful at most.
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PP i should have said under 40. At the moment less than 10 have in that category.
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I do tend to agree with letting the young go back to something like normal while protecting the elderly, but the 2 figures of 100k and 200-500k don't really add up to anything different if the average age is a lot lower on the 100k figure.
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stridingedge
26 Apr 20 13:02 Joined: 14 Sep 10 | Topic/replies: 56,356 | Blogger: stridingedge's blog Insider Trader it's pointless comparing countries we have seen the variances, studies vary massively. You need to concentrate on the data in this country. An early Oxford research claimed 50% could already have been infected late march, this looks a ridiculous outlier now. Cherry pick from here there and everywhere and extrapolating from other countries to fit us is daft TBH. One we get more data you'll get a truer picture and these wild variances in assumptions will start to converge. ^ Even will Ferguson's assumptions many millions in the UK have been infected. He talks about South Korea track and trace but admits himself that is very difficult now so many have it. It seems he just wants us to wait around for a possible vaccine next year. I think by then millions more will have had it anyway and tens of thousands more will be dead anyway. And you end up with destroyed businesses and education missed. |
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I think we need more research into long-term effects of the virus beyond just death first. Too many reports of people suffering real life-limiting damage. All very well telling them they probably won't die but we also need to tell them the % chance of them ending up on disability before they're fifty.
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No one can hang around that long Insider Trader, that's just not possible!
The Lockdown has to be broken. The plan will surely involve protecting the vulnerable (they will have to suck it up whilst others get back to some sort of routine with measures in place) The concept you can't quarantine some and not others doesn't make sense now but the policy must be confident the shield will work. |
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I totally agree that the external damage will outweigh the gains in extending the lockdown as it is currently beyond the next review.
They should be telling people an outline of the plan rather than treating everyone like kids who can only concentrate on being good now before they can unwrap their present tomorrow. |
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Porcupine. Where you getting this from. All ive read is a very few of the most severe cases may suffer permanent damage to their lungs. Those arent likely to be the under 50s.
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correct politics,then factor in young peoples mental health,when it becomes government policy that you might be unwittingly infecting vulnerable people within your family and other peoples family,.and as ive posted a million times its an horrendous disease for those young people who survive but are hospitalised and still learning what damage it does to thier internal organs going forward
like ive said brave hearts were discussing catching it and getting it done as doris would say, if you had a stall tomorrow offering you the virus don't think there,d be a queue |
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Ferguson started off on this looking reasonably sensible.
But now he seems obsessed with all kinds of modelling. All the science people will be looking at this from only the science point of view but governments will have to balance the science against the economy and the practical side of keeping a country locked down. I am started to be irritated by the scientists now because they are saying a few mad things - does anyone really think that only younger people will be allowed to break curfew? Beyond stupid because it is trying to classify too many people under too few headings. This is something the modern world keeps doing now because it is cheaper and easier - but then it is realised just how many exceptions there are to each heading. We then see a retraction to suit this or that exception and we end up with a messy model that isn't practical. And, another thing. Are all these gloom and doom EXTRA deaths or not? Funnily enough, people die every day and it is the difference between that number and the CV19 number that is the most relevant. To end - it would be so good if a scientist looked at all the models and then came on to tell us the positives in them - and there will be some. But instead they seem to enjoy doom-mongering, I suspect because our lazy media encourage it. |
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"and as ive posted a million times its an horrendous disease for those young people who survive but are hospitalised and still learning what damage it does to thier internal organs going forward"
Yes you keep posting this but it seems somewhat exaggerated to say the least. From what im reading its less than 1 in 5 of patients that are ventilated that may have long term issues. Its not something that will effect the vast majority. |