ferguson latest models

you'll win nothing with kids

Ferguson totally discredited. Best do the opposite of whatever he says.

Apr 26, 2020 -- 1:13PM, Dotchinite wrote:

Ferguson totally discredited. Best do the opposite of whatever he says.

Discredited by who?

Anyone with a brain.

It was only a couple of weeks ago he claimed that deaths from this could be as low as 7000. They were 4900 at the time with daily deaths running at in excess of 600 and the peak forecast over a week ahead. It appears he has previous form for making way out predictions and he is best ingnored.

Think it was schools and work,it maes perfect sense obviously strokes and heart attacks are appearing 7x likely amongst 30-50 year olds with the virus,there won't just be huge deaths but huge health problems for younger people as well not excluding the 1000s with permanent lung damage..

Have you a link to that 7X likely for strokes statement. Or the 1000s with permanent lung damage.

His predictive modelling has failed in the past.  You have to wonder what motives the government have to rely on his modelling again.

You are all pissing in the wind at this stage.

Even the scientists who have much more experience in disease are working with too many unknowns regarding the data sets to form conclusive agreements, their estimates for infections at this stage an example where there has been a huge range which greatly affects any ability to predict what's actually happening out there.

Thing is everybody is shocked by 100,000 deaths but in the context of 600,000 UK deaths every year and stories of 100 million worldwide facing starvation it really isnt that much. It certainly doesnt change the fact that we need to come out of lockdown at some point in the coming weeks.

In this interview yesterday...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6cYjjEB3Ev8

he did not sound confident at all. To be fair I think he is trying his best but completely out of his depth.

He refuses to budge on his assumption despite them being found to be wrong in New York and Sweden.

Nothing to with the negative effects of lock down in terms of health and economic well being are modeled.

He thinks we should follow South Korea.

Trouble is the cat is out of the bag.

Millions in the UK are already infected. 10.7 key works continue to move about and must be spreading it.

Contract tracing and isolating.... too late for that... cannot unboil an egg.

The figures were ranging from 200-500K doing nothing and some of the assumptions of the models (as with so much of the science out there) have been questioned.

There's not enough real evidence yet for anyone to be able to give a confident analysis of where we actually are without still having to make big assumptions and experts all over the place are completely conflicting one another as they are using different assumptions.

Of course we can't stay in lockdown but it's the extent of release which will be debated.

*10.7m

He should stick to studying mints

Very simplistic bait today IT, not up to your usual standard.

Angoose how many weeks/months of the current lock down would it take to reduce new cases to point we could South Korea style track, trace and isolate given where we are?

And by then what percentage of the population will have had it anyway?

Estimates around 35-40,000 deaths and infections today from one Oxford source saying 2-6 million infected.

You've had wildly ranging estimates of infections As I say you can cherry pick what suits your agenda but there are too many unknowns at this stage for any predictions not to be hugely based on assumptions

Of course experts like Insider Trader are looking at all the correct data.

"Estimates around 35-40,000 deaths and infections today from one Oxford source saying 2-6 million infected."

Sounds very reasonable, but then that's a prediction of the here and now, rather than the future.  2-6 million is a very wide spread, for the current situation, which when predicted into the future will extrapolate wildly.  That's why an accurate nationwide antibody test is so important.

Deaths in UK so far around 20,000 in hospitals.

At Ferguson's rate high death rate (0.9%) that means 2.2m already had it.

At the more realistic NYC death rate (0.5%) that means 4m already infected.

Another 10000-20000 in the community probably died...

Pushes estimates up to 4m-8m already.

The number percentage in London will be far higher and South west far lower.

With those numbers I fail to see how you can go back to track and trace now.

Also if they are looking at daily cases as their metric to open up they will be up against increasing numbers rather than smaller as more testing is rolled out.

No the deaths were adding in the deaths outside of hospital if you are to believe these estimates.

IF

It just seems weird Fergusion says we cannot protect the vulnerable properly so we need to stop younger people going out to stop the spread.

Surely for the economic cost of keeping lock down on the fit and young we could pay literally spend billions to put a ring of steel around the vulnerable.

Is he just pushing the average age of deaths down and relying on herd immunity? 100k deaths with a younger average age is no better than the 200-500k deaths from doing nothing, where the average age of deaths would be much higher.

On ye olde twitter, John Nicholson has asked the question of whether you'd go to a match tomorrow if the lockdown were lifted. Approx 85% so far saying they wouldn't.


The capitalist amplifiers can scream all they want about the need to get back to normal or how long it may or may not take but the simple fact is you could open everything tomorrow but people just aren't going to turn up. All you're going to do is get people back on the payroll, get debtors on the phone and drive businesses into the ground.

...Hmm. Unless that's the plan all along. Orchestrate a rush back knowing it will cripple and close a lot of firms who won't be able to survive and leaving the way clear for the bigger firms to have a clear run when it's all over. Nice.

Insider Trader it's pointless comparing countries we have seen the variances, studies vary massively.

You need to concentrate on the data in this country. An early Oxford research claimed 50% could already have been infected late march, this looks a ridiculous outlier now.

Cherry pick from here there and everywhere and extrapolating from other countries to fit us is daft TBH.

One we get more data you'll get a truer picture and these wild variances in assumptions will start to converge.

Hardly anyone under 50 who is fit is going to die. A handful at most.

Apr 26, 2020 -- 2:01PM, InsiderTrader wrote:

It just seems weird Fergusion says we cannot protect the vulnerable properly so we need to stop younger people going out to stop the spread.Surely for the economic cost of keeping lock down on the fit and young we could pay literally spend billions to put a ring of steel around the vulnerable.

Maybe show a smidgeon of evidence that this government is remotely capable of protecting the vulnerable first. Because, so far it's just been an utter catastrophe. Unless Cummings has a real game changing ace up his sleeve then it's just gonna be a repeat of the previous failures.

Apr 26, 2020 -- 2:02PM, Dotchinite wrote:

Hardly anyone under 50 who is fit is going to die. A handful at most.

Plenty have passed away already who probably come into that category.

PP i should have said under 40. At the moment less than 10 have in that category.

I do tend to agree with letting the young go back to something like normal while protecting the elderly, but the 2 figures of 100k and 200-500k don't really add up to anything different if the average age is a lot lower on the 100k figure.

stridingedge
26 Apr 20 13:02
Joined: 14 Sep 10
| Topic/replies: 56,356 | Blogger: stridingedge's blog
Insider Trader it's pointless comparing countries we have seen the variances, studies vary massively.

You need to concentrate on the data in this country. An early Oxford research claimed 50% could already have been infected late march, this looks a ridiculous outlier now.

Cherry pick from here there and everywhere and extrapolating from other countries to fit us is daft TBH.

One we get more data you'll get a truer picture and these wild variances in assumptions will start to converge.


^

Even will Ferguson's assumptions many millions in the UK have been infected.

He talks about South Korea track and trace but admits himself that is very difficult now so many have it.

It seems he just wants us to wait around for a possible vaccine next year.

I think by then millions more will have had it anyway and tens of thousands more will be dead anyway.

And you end up with destroyed businesses and education missed.

I think we need more research into long-term effects of the virus beyond just death first. Too many reports of people suffering real life-limiting damage. All very well telling them they probably won't die but we also need to tell them the % chance of them ending up on disability before they're fifty.

No one can hang around that long Insider Trader, that's just not possible!

The Lockdown has to be broken. The plan will surely involve protecting the vulnerable (they will have to suck it up whilst others get back to some sort of routine with measures in place)

The concept you can't quarantine some and not others doesn't make sense now but the policy must be confident the shield will work.

I totally agree that the external damage will outweigh the gains in extending the lockdown as it is currently beyond the next review.

They should be telling people an outline of the plan rather than treating everyone like kids who can only concentrate on being good now before they can unwrap their present tomorrow.

Porcupine. Where you getting this from. All ive read is a very few of the most severe cases may suffer permanent damage to their lungs. Those arent likely to be the under 50s.

correct politics,then factor in young peoples mental health,when it becomes government policy that you might be unwittingly infecting  vulnerable people within your family and other peoples  family,.and as ive posted a million times its an horrendous disease for those young people who survive but are hospitalised and still learning what damage it does to thier internal organs  going  forward
like ive said brave hearts were discussing catching it and getting it done as doris would say, if you had a stall tomorrow offering you the virus don't think there,d be a queue

Ferguson started off on this looking reasonably sensible.

But now he seems obsessed with all kinds of modelling.

All the science people will be looking at this from only the science point of view but governments will have to balance the science against the economy and the practical side of keeping a country locked down.

I am started to be irritated by the scientists now because they are saying a few mad things - does anyone really think that only younger people will be allowed to break curfew?

Beyond stupid because it is trying to classify too many people under too few headings. This is something the modern world keeps doing now because it is cheaper and easier - but then it is realised just how many exceptions there are to each heading. We then see a retraction to suit this or that exception and we end up with a messy model that isn't practical.

And, another thing.

Are all these gloom and doom EXTRA deaths or not? Funnily enough, people die every day and it is the difference between that number and the CV19 number that is the most relevant.

To end - it would be so good if a scientist looked at all the models and then came on to tell us the positives in them - and there will be some. But instead they seem to enjoy doom-mongering, I suspect because our lazy media encourage it.

"and as ive posted a million times its an horrendous disease for those young people who survive but are hospitalised and still learning what damage it does to thier internal organs  going  forward"

Yes you keep posting this but it seems somewhat exaggerated to say the least. From what im reading its less than 1 in 5 of patients that are ventilated that may have long term issues. Its not something that will effect the vast majority.

Remember Whitty said 20000 deaths would be a good result..we are now around 40000(care home and at home included) and we will be far and away the worst
country in Europe when this is all over.Cummings/Bojo gambled on bad flu/herd immunity eugenic approach..we are now reaping their reward.

We have absolutely no idea on how many within the poulation have had Coronavirus ... everthing is guesstimates
Even if we can't do wholesale track & trace we can surely run tests for a representative sample which might give at least a realistic idea of numbers
The Gov't seem to be running on a delay mechanism without any real understanding of future prospects (who does) ... my guess is they are hoping to see some positive results coming from elsewhere in Europe so they can then formulate a release strategy of sorts ... will there be a 2nd wave or more ... we simply don't know but they need to tell people what their ideas are for moving forward whilst shielding the vulnerable

How come all the nightingale hospitals are empty? how come the normal hospitals are well within capacity?

If there's 600+ people dying a day the hospitals would be overwhelmed. EVERYDAY there's 600+ people dying, more and more are supposedly going into ICU? there's 1200 hospitals in the country and there's 1000s upon 1000s entering them? we'd see a health collapse ffs

How many ICUs in each hospital? how many beds in each ICU?

Sorry but the maths are not adding up, and now people want to add double onto the cases and double onto the deaths total ffs

Apr 26, 2020 -- 2:38PM, sofiakenny wrote:

Remember Whitty said 20000 deaths would be a good result..we are now around 40000(care home and at home included) and we will be far and away the worstcountry in Europe when this is all over.Cummings/Bojo gambled on bad flu/herd immunity eugenic approach..we are now reaping their reward.

In the WORLD!!!! not just Europe

The big boys

figures down again today, will be lower tomorrow

hey boris the clown is back

get them figures massaged get all deaths out on friday etc etc

stridingedge
26 Apr 20 13:02
Joined: 14 Sep 10
| Topic/replies: 56,358 | Blogger: stridingedge's blog
Insider Trader it's pointless comparing countries we have seen the variances, studies vary massively.

You need to concentrate on the data in this country.

^

I am sorry but we have to look at other countries.

We have no idea what would have happened in the UK if we had advised the vulnerable and older people to isolate and let everyone else out with voluntary social distancing.

What we can do is look at other countries with different policies and see how they are getting on.

Scientists like to praise China and South Korea but Sweden and Belarus we are told... 'oh they are different you cannot compare countries'.

We have to look everywhere.

Yesterday Ferguson said Sweden will suffer badly from they policy. That is his prediction. If he would put out his computer model maybe we could run it for Sweden for back in March and see if he predicted 100,000 deaths there.

But will Ferguson refusing to release his code we are all in the dark. He can keep claiming without lockdown styel choosen we would have been overwhelmed.

would think doris would want numbers up/at least static,if they come down more pressure to lift some of restrictions

Every country has exactly the same at risk groups dying and everyone else , who may have had or are carrying the virus are not . Until the government and "experts" realise this , the same at risk groups will keep dying until the pandemic runs its course .

Of course they realize it.

Name me one current world sportsman or woman who has died.....

and Norman Hunter does not count

Insider Trader you keep mentioning countries that were at different stages and did things differently from the beginning.

You can't take a study in one part of another country and extrapolate it to fit the uk.

Has Ferguson asked the elderly what they want?

Imagine being 80 and told no more visits except by Skype and your day entails nurses in PPE serving you meals

I'd rather pop my clogs

Anyone answer my question ?

Sure, zero.


Pretty weird to be a current sportsman and also dead. I think I'd have a good chance at that game if so.

Apr 26, 2020 -- 4:40PM, PorcupineorPineapple wrote:

Sure, zero.Pretty weird to be a current sportsman and also dead. I think I'd have a good chance at that game if so.

Lol

not much comfort for about 70 million ,if been an elite sportsmen is some sort of barrier to virus

in 8 weeks that means the message has changed from anyone under 60 been ok ,to elite sportsmen,

Rod Liddle in the Sunday Times a couple of weeks ago re NF forecasts:
2005 200m to die of bird flu . Actual number 282 over 6 years
2009 Swine flu had a 0.4% mortality rate and 65000 British people might die . Mortality rate 0.026% and 457 died
BSE 50000 to die -actual number 177.
Now imagine he was on the Apprentice.
Sir Alan “So you forecast sales of 200m -how many sales did you make?"
NF (shifts uneasily)282
Sir Alan “Then you was involved in another project  where you forecast sales of 65000. And the result was?
NF (squirms) 457
Sir Alan “Finally you was project manager for another campaign. What were the figures”
NF (looking at the ground and mumbling) “Projection 50000, actual number 177”
Sir Alan “Why should I keep you on?”
NF “Well this is what my model said”
Sir Alan “At least a stopped clock is right twice a day. Your models don't work son. You’re fired”.

1st time poster ,the reason I picked out professional sports persons is because they are monitored by doctors and physiotherapists unlike the majority of the population . This shows the disparity between fit , active and monitored individuals as opposed to those who are not .

Tell me the world wide deaths from covid 19 who are white , under 60 , have no underlying health conditions with a bmi under 30 .

Go on , you have the whole world to look at . 8 billion people . Firstly find out the % that are white and go from there .

Its clear in England that up to now with 18000+ deaths that only about a dozen were under 40 with no underlying conditions. Yet we still get people trying to pretend it effects everyone. Some here have an agenda and my guess is they want everyone to be as scared as they are so the lockdown is maintained.

Dotchinite , you have a brain and are not a member of the bovidae

Has anyone under the age of 40, with no underlying health conditions, become infected ?
Has anyone under the age of 40, with no underlying health conditions, consumed NHS resources after becoming infected ?
Has anyone under the age of 40, with no underlying health conditions, passed the virus to others ?

No one under 40 has died of the flu WITHOUT underlying health conditions

And the last place I'd go if I had the sodding thing is the hospital, I coped just fine with the flu a couple of years ago without drugs and ventilators and oxygen tanks thank you very much

Nature will take its course, and will do it if you take the "special potions" or not , we didn't get this far with vaccines ffs

Angoose. the answer to all three is obviously Yes but explain the point you are trying to  make.

Apr 26, 2020 -- 5:58PM, Angoose wrote:

Has anyone under the age of 40, with no underlying health conditions, become infected ?Has anyone under the age of 40, with no underlying health conditions, consumed NHS resources after becoming infected ?Has anyone under the age of 40, with no underlying health conditions, passed the virus to others ?

Yes, Yes and Yes.

Apr 26, 2020 -- 6:05PM, Dotchinite wrote:

Angoose. the answer to all three is obviously Yes but explain the point you are trying to

even if they don't no it most of the world has at least one underlying condition,and most don't die of them

common in uk
high blood pressure
high cholesterol
diabete,s typr 2
obese

would all be classed as underlying conditions for starters

Most of the world does not have an underlying condition. Why do you exaggerate all the time.

most of the world does have at least one underlying condition ,ive just listed 4/5 which would include millions .upon millions of uk public for starters

been blind or death doesnt kill you ,till your hit by a double decker bus ,because you didn't see or hear it,they then become underlying conditions causing your death

Most implies a majority and a decent one at that. Its plainly not true.

High chloresterol is stretching it a bit as well.

1tp

Diabetes is the most common, most of us probably have that to some varying degree because we such utter cr*p on a daily basis

Processed food and fizzy drinks etc

you don't believe a majority of the world if having an MOT WOULDNT HAVE AT LEAST ONE UNDERLYING CONDITION,  I ouldnt bet on it you,d lose a lot of money
ive just give you 4/5 which millions of uk population would have,
heart problems
hayfever
vitamin deficiency
asthma.

theres 4 more that take out millions more if you've avoided the 1st 5

Hayfever and vitamin deficieny. Now you are on the wind up.

Hayfever is now a symptom of covid 19

lack of vitamin d been put forward as a reason for bame people dying so deffo be going down as an underlying condition
add in liver functions and lung problems for cdrinkers and smokers
and theres a few million more on the list
after them 12 dont think there,ll be many still standing,

like I said the majority of the country has at least one underlying condition,we havnt got into the junkies , steroid uder,s, pill poppers etc yet

You are pure comedy gold 1st time. Im just glad you are here on this betting site.

just admit your wrong its easier, I,ll you again the majority of the public have at least one underlying medical condition,thats not to say they all no about it

Im not wrong though. You are using silly examples and dont know  what an underlying condition is. I will give you a definition.

"An underlying health condition is a chronic or long-term illness, which in turn weakens the immune system.
This refers to a medical problem that is usually chronic or significant, and which usually requires long-term treatment,"

That is not hay fever or a vitamin deficiency. A majority of the population simply dont have such a condition. Its ludicrous.

Ok , 1st time poster

"The majority of this country has at least one underlying health condition."

So over 5o% of the UK have cancer , diabetes or serious cardiovascular problems .

Zero evidence .

Pub talk .

I am not talking about a corn or a sore elbow .

You have no idea what you are talking about .

Show some evidence of your claim and I will concede defeat .

Oh and whilst obesity is a factor in COVID deaths being fat isnt itself an underlying health condition. It just means you eat too much and need to get out of your chair a bit more.

no ,one mentioned the conditions hindered ypour fight against corona ,but their again no ones listed the underlying conditions they had
I,m just saying corona aside the majority of uk public carries at least one underlying medical condition

dotch laughed at lack of vitamins, buts its been put forward as a possible major underlying  condition in bame deaths

been obese,high bllod pressure, asthma, type 2 diab,  4  common condition,s millions upon milliopns have got also put forward as a disadvantage in fighting corona

I,ll bet you as much as you like if doris hadn't made it,he,d be one with underlying health condition,s

Everyone looking to the government to tell them what to do . Sitting on their fat @rse stuffing crispy creme donuts down their throat flushed down

with rola cola , Never do exercise , never look at their diet , can't be bothered to cook , drink to excess , smoke to excess and wonder why they

are ill . If they told you what do to improve your health , you wouldn't listen.....

Where can I buy this rola cola you speak of ?

Lack of vitamins may be a factor in some BAME deaths but its not an underlying condition. Diabetes and High Blood Pressure are just as dementia, cardio vascular disease and lung conditions like COPD are. They do not make up "most" of the population though.

It has to be said the longer this pandemic goes on the less sympathy I have for the obese. If they cant be bothered to stop eating doughnuts when their life could be at stake thats their choice. The same goes for a majority of type 2 diabetics who make no attempt to cure themselves.

The people who are dying are the same people who suffer from vitamin D deficiency . I am not saying the reason for death is a lack of vitamin D . It

is the one thing they all have in common . Much of the problem is their lifestyle which hinders production . It would help if they brought their

levels up as it aids in so many ways especially with chronic lung conditions which this virus affects .

I won't bore anyone with the research as it's rarely glanced at on here . It shouldn't take long to find research data . Make your own minds up .

Keep safe if you are one of the affected groups .

nobody has evidence that donuts affect corona infection

it wont be long until some research paper of two donut eaters is quoted as gospel by somebody

yhtl. There is a major link to Covid with donuts. Something like 70% of ICU patients have eaten too many of them.

Is Johnson included in those official statistics?

I think I would trust Duncan Ferguson to produce more realistic figures over this complete charlatan.
He's cost the country Billions so far with scare mongering and complete and utter gross incompetence

64.7% is figure i am hearing,