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InsiderTrader
25 Apr 20 16:03
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Date Joined: 25 Aug 05
| Topic/replies: 14,569 | Blogger: InsiderTrader's blog
1. Making sure the NHS can cope
2. A 'sustained and consistent' fall in the daily death rate
3. Rate of infection decreasing to 'manageable levels'
4. Ensuring supply of tests and PPE can meet future demand
5. Being confident any adjustments would not risk a second peak

No actual metrics on them so meaningless.

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Replies: 87
By:
duffy
When: 25 Apr 20 16:06
Patel today gave more of a feel than any minister recently that we're not meeting those 5 points, she said it. We can all see that the past few days the deaths are going up.

Point 5 looks to be miles away.
By:
PorcupineorPineapple
When: 25 Apr 20 17:12
Ensuring the public has confidence.


All very well having a bunch of rich capitalists begging us to get back to making them rich but people are going to need reassurance from medical professionals that going to Next isn't going to result in them having two weeks of utter misery. Result being that furloughed staff are back on payroll, landlords are chasing rent but shops just aren't seeing the business.

Trying to rush thus is just going to make the economic position worse.
By:
Dotchinite
When: 25 Apr 20 17:18
PP. Its those businesses and their employees who will pay the tax that enables us to have an NHS in the first place. Everyone is going to have a damn sight more than 2 weeks misery if we collapse our economy.

The problem is the Govt scared everyone to get them to stay home but they underestimated how cowardly a lot are and its going to be a real struggle to get them to go past their front door anytime soon. We should have been honest about who it affected from the start.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 25 Apr 20 17:51
a second lockdown will damage the economy, what with brexit around the corner too, the
elephant in the room
By:
PorcupineorPineapple
When: 25 Apr 20 18:00
I agree dotch but we are where we are and all talk of what might happen is in future conditional. Present tense makes a much more persuasive argument.

If we get Cummings et al telling us to go back to shops and restaurants while the WHO and our own scientists are saying there's a significant risk of catching the virus then it's going to be a damp squib.

There are still far too many cases even of fit people being sent to hospital, laid up for weeks or being left with lasting issues. I read about two young divers who have come through the other side but are left with lungs more akin to someone over fifty.

People just won't but into it If it's considered rushed. It's that big bowl of M&M's scenario. You're offered it but told one will kill you, a few will send you to hospital with all the terror for you and your family that entails, a few will make you seriously ill and bed-ridden for three weeks or so and lots more will either have no or only a mild effect. How many people are putting their hands in?

Fact is, we ballsed up at the start so had to go into lockdown. Once in it we have to see it through till numbers are very low and it's significantly safer than it is now. Then we think about the economy.
By:
Reynard
When: 25 Apr 20 18:13
1. Open a pub .
2. Open a betting shop .
3. Open another pub .
4. Open yet another pub
5. Open a KFC .
By:
Reynard
When: 25 Apr 20 18:16
2. A 'sustained and consistent' fall in the daily death rate

I don't think there has been a significant rise in the death rate relative to previous years . Just a different label been invented and slapped on death certificates containing the prefix 'with' Plain
By:
nineteen points
When: 25 Apr 20 18:16
no deal brexit is what they wanted all along but they have focked te country in their devious way of getting it. well they will get their ideology of starting with a clean slate.
By:
InsiderTrader
When: 25 Apr 20 18:24
Cummings and Boris have both had Covid.

Will be interesting to see if that makes them too cautious and results in us delaying the pain of the virus going through enough people get us immunity.

People will not be able to survive a lock down until next summer and a possible vaccine. It has to be relaxed at some point and then the virus will spread even more. It is still r is 0.6. 10 million key workers are already out and about spreading it.

The government told us the lock down was to protect the NHS being over run.

Mission accomplished.


Now they have moved the goal posts to 5 tests that have no metrics to be judged on.

Let people out and trust them to social distance and protect the care homes properly.
By:
Angoose
When: 25 Apr 20 18:28

Apr 25, 2020 -- 1:16PM, Reynard wrote:


2. A 'sustained and consistent' fall in the daily death rateI don't think there has been a significant rise in the death rate relative to previous years . Just a different label been invented and slapped on death certificates containing the prefix 'with'


Are you sure that there hasn't been a significant rise in the death rate relative to previous years ?

significant [ADJECTIVE]
sufficiently great or important to be worthy of attention; noteworthy.


I'd say that 59% and 76% higher than previous years is significant.



Another set of data for week 16 will be released on Tuesday.

By:
Reynard
When: 25 Apr 20 18:30
What are the respective totals for the blue line and the orange line please ?
By:
Reynard
When: 25 Apr 20 18:32
........... for weeks 1 to 15 cumulatively . Thanks in advance Happy
By:
InsiderTrader
When: 25 Apr 20 18:33
Could be people not attending hospital because they were scared of Covid.

Could be people who would die inside a year anyway.

We now know the backlog of operations already will take the NHS five years to clear we need to end this ASAP.
By:
casemoney
When: 25 Apr 20 18:35
Non of the OPs listed Criteria have been reached , With Exception of the NHS coping .. For now ..
By:
Reynard
When: 25 Apr 20 18:36
Angoose - Very quick with the graphics , not so quick (forthcoming) with the actual figures Mischief
By:
Angoose
When: 25 Apr 20 18:38

Apr 25, 2020 -- 1:32PM, Reynard wrote:


........... for weeks 1 to 15 cumulatively . Thanks in advance


Weekly registered deaths in England and Wales.

Week 1 to 13 : Five Year Average 153,868, 2020 150,057
Week 14 : Five Year Average 10,305, 2020 16,387
Week 15 : Five Year Average 10,520, 2020 18,516

The figures are publicly available, feel free to check them out.

By:
Reynard
When: 25 Apr 20 18:46
Total deaths 5 year average  174693
Total deaths 2020 = 184960

How the hell is that a 59% increase , let alone a 76% increase ?
By my calculation it's less than a 6% increase . Hardly 'significant' . Just a variance .

Which raises the question : Why are your offerings so alarmist ? Do you have an agenda ? Confused
By:
edy
When: 25 Apr 20 18:47

Apr 25, 2020 -- 1:36PM, Reynard wrote:


Angoose - Very quick with the graphics , not so quick (forthcoming) with the actual figures


The duration between your post about it all being a hoax and Angoose posting the graphics was longer than the duration between you asking for the data and this post of yours.

By:
Reynard
When: 25 Apr 20 18:49
Where did I use the word 'hoax' ffs ? Another one who makes it up as he goes along Crazy
By:
Angoose
When: 25 Apr 20 18:50

Apr 25, 2020 -- 1:46PM, Reynard wrote:


Total deaths 5 year average  174693Total deaths 2020 = 184960How the hell is that a 59% increase , let alone a 76% increase ? By my calculation it's less than a 6% increase . Hardly 'significant' . Just a variance .Which raises the question : Why are your offerings so alarmist ? Do you have an agenda ?


How very inconvenient of COVID-19 not to start killing the British population starting on Week 1, eh.

16,387 / 10,305 = 1.59
18,516 / 10,520 = 1.76

By:
edy
When: 25 Apr 20 18:51
Oh, by saying there hasn't been a significant rise and that people are merely inventing a new label for the death certificates you didn't mean to say it's all a hoax?

Alright. Sorry if that coupled with your history of spreading conspiracy theories about it indeed all being a hoax in the past gave me that impression.
By:
Reynard
When: 25 Apr 20 18:51
How many of the British population have been 'killed by COVID-19' ?
By:
edy
When: 25 Apr 20 18:56
Reynard, do you really not recognise that there is something going on when there are consecutive weeks with significantly higher numbers of deaths? Numbers that aren't seen otherwise.
By:
Angoose
When: 25 Apr 20 18:58
Reynard, what measure of deaths has the Chief Medical Officer (Chris Whitty) been highlighting as the key measure of the impact of COVID-19 right from the outset ?
By:
Reynard
When: 25 Apr 20 19:01
edy - I agree , there is something going on , but I am not 100% sure exactly what it is . The nomber of deaths 'attributed' to Covid-19 has levelled off over the past fortnight so whatever this is as a result of it isn't COVID-19 .
By:
edy
When: 25 Apr 20 19:03
What's your best guess what it is?
By:
PorcupineorPineapple
When: 25 Apr 20 19:03
Why start at week 1? Let's go back to six months before that guy ate the bat and include those figures too!
#statisticalgeniusatwork
By:
Reynard
When: 25 Apr 20 19:03
How many of the British population have been 'killed' by COVID-19 , according to Mr Whitty ?
By:
Reynard
When: 25 Apr 20 19:04
20 ? 30 ?
By:
Reynard
When: 25 Apr 20 19:04
2,000 ? 20,000 ?
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 25 Apr 20 19:04
likely spike due to idiots drinking bleach now Cry
By:
1st time poster
When: 25 Apr 20 19:06
in carehomes,communitiy dr puts anything but covid on the death cert and its feet up gin and tonic in the sunshine ,in the garden,put covid in any shape or form and its extra paperwork,files,phone calls,etc,etc, whistleblowers have been saying it for 6 weeks now
By:
Angoose
When: 25 Apr 20 19:08

Apr 25, 2020 -- 2:03PM, Reynard wrote:


How many of the British population have been 'killed' by COVID-19 , according to Mr Whitty ?


Give us your definition of "killed by COVID-19" and then go on to explain how it would impact the deaths from all causes figures.

By:
Reynard
When: 25 Apr 20 19:11
How about you give your definition of "killed by COVID-19" seeing as how you introduced the phrase in your typically alarmist manner ? ?
By:
InsiderTrader
When: 25 Apr 20 19:13
Reynard
25 Apr 20 18:51
Joined: 30 Dec 02
| Topic/replies: 6,364 | Blogger: Reynard's blog
How many of the British population have been 'killed by COVID-19' ?

^

Difficult one this.

After the 500,000 worst case deaths paper was given credence by the UK government and Trump people with other conditions are too terrified to go to the hospital to get treatment.

Green zones in hospitals sitting empty with staff with nothing to do as people too scared to attend.

Deaths go up and will continue to go up due to the reaction to Covid.
By:
InsiderTrader
When: 25 Apr 20 19:14
The jail door could be opened tomorrow and most would remain self-imprisoned crying for the government to be tougher.
By:
edy
When: 25 Apr 20 19:18
IT, given what you have told us about you, shouldn't you be most understanding towards people locking themselves in? Will you stop self-imprisonment?
By:
Angoose
When: 25 Apr 20 19:19

Apr 25, 2020 -- 2:11PM, Reynard wrote:


How about you give your definition of "killed by COVID-19" seeing as how you introduced the phrase in your typically alarmist manner ? ?


Skipping the question, eh.
And if you bother to read the thread, you will see that you are the one who introduced the phrase that you do not wish to define.

But you already know that.

By:
InsiderTrader
When: 25 Apr 20 19:21
It should be a personal choice.

Trust the people.

I will do my bit to protect the vulnerable but I have nothing against the young, fit and health getting on with their lives. I do not want them to stop their education and building their careers to protect the vulnerable. Individuals and the state can do that in a focused way.
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