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InsiderTrader
25 Apr 20 17:03
Joined:
Date Joined: 25 Aug 05
| Topic/replies: 14,569 | Blogger: InsiderTrader's blog
1. Making sure the NHS can cope
2. A 'sustained and consistent' fall in the daily death rate
3. Rate of infection decreasing to 'manageable levels'
4. Ensuring supply of tests and PPE can meet future demand
5. Being confident any adjustments would not risk a second peak

No actual metrics on them so meaningless.
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Report duffy April 25, 2020 5:06 PM BST
Patel today gave more of a feel than any minister recently that we're not meeting those 5 points, she said it. We can all see that the past few days the deaths are going up.

Point 5 looks to be miles away.
Report PorcupineorPineapple April 25, 2020 6:12 PM BST
Ensuring the public has confidence.


All very well having a bunch of rich capitalists begging us to get back to making them rich but people are going to need reassurance from medical professionals that going to Next isn't going to result in them having two weeks of utter misery. Result being that furloughed staff are back on payroll, landlords are chasing rent but shops just aren't seeing the business.

Trying to rush thus is just going to make the economic position worse.
Report Dotchinite April 25, 2020 6:18 PM BST
PP. Its those businesses and their employees who will pay the tax that enables us to have an NHS in the first place. Everyone is going to have a damn sight more than 2 weeks misery if we collapse our economy.

The problem is the Govt scared everyone to get them to stay home but they underestimated how cowardly a lot are and its going to be a real struggle to get them to go past their front door anytime soon. We should have been honest about who it affected from the start.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- April 25, 2020 6:51 PM BST
a second lockdown will damage the economy, what with brexit around the corner too, the
elephant in the room
Report PorcupineorPineapple April 25, 2020 7:00 PM BST
I agree dotch but we are where we are and all talk of what might happen is in future conditional. Present tense makes a much more persuasive argument.

If we get Cummings et al telling us to go back to shops and restaurants while the WHO and our own scientists are saying there's a significant risk of catching the virus then it's going to be a damp squib.

There are still far too many cases even of fit people being sent to hospital, laid up for weeks or being left with lasting issues. I read about two young divers who have come through the other side but are left with lungs more akin to someone over fifty.

People just won't but into it If it's considered rushed. It's that big bowl of M&M's scenario. You're offered it but told one will kill you, a few will send you to hospital with all the terror for you and your family that entails, a few will make you seriously ill and bed-ridden for three weeks or so and lots more will either have no or only a mild effect. How many people are putting their hands in?

Fact is, we ballsed up at the start so had to go into lockdown. Once in it we have to see it through till numbers are very low and it's significantly safer than it is now. Then we think about the economy.
Report Reynard April 25, 2020 7:13 PM BST
1. Open a pub .
2. Open a betting shop .
3. Open another pub .
4. Open yet another pub
5. Open a KFC .
Report Reynard April 25, 2020 7:16 PM BST
2. A 'sustained and consistent' fall in the daily death rate

I don't think there has been a significant rise in the death rate relative to previous years . Just a different label been invented and slapped on death certificates containing the prefix 'with' Plain
Report nineteen points April 25, 2020 7:16 PM BST
no deal brexit is what they wanted all along but they have focked te country in their devious way of getting it. well they will get their ideology of starting with a clean slate.
Report InsiderTrader April 25, 2020 7:24 PM BST
Cummings and Boris have both had Covid.

Will be interesting to see if that makes them too cautious and results in us delaying the pain of the virus going through enough people get us immunity.

People will not be able to survive a lock down until next summer and a possible vaccine. It has to be relaxed at some point and then the virus will spread even more. It is still r is 0.6. 10 million key workers are already out and about spreading it.

The government told us the lock down was to protect the NHS being over run.

Mission accomplished.


Now they have moved the goal posts to 5 tests that have no metrics to be judged on.

Let people out and trust them to social distance and protect the care homes properly.
Report Angoose April 25, 2020 7:28 PM BST

Apr 25, 2020 -- 1:16PM, Reynard wrote:


2. A 'sustained and consistent' fall in the daily death rateI don't think there has been a significant rise in the death rate relative to previous years . Just a different label been invented and slapped on death certificates containing the prefix 'with'


Are you sure that there hasn't been a significant rise in the death rate relative to previous years ?

significant [ADJECTIVE]
sufficiently great or important to be worthy of attention; noteworthy.


I'd say that 59% and 76% higher than previous years is significant.



Another set of data for week 16 will be released on Tuesday.

Report Reynard April 25, 2020 7:30 PM BST
What are the respective totals for the blue line and the orange line please ?
Report Reynard April 25, 2020 7:32 PM BST
........... for weeks 1 to 15 cumulatively . Thanks in advance Happy
Report InsiderTrader April 25, 2020 7:33 PM BST
Could be people not attending hospital because they were scared of Covid.

Could be people who would die inside a year anyway.

We now know the backlog of operations already will take the NHS five years to clear we need to end this ASAP.
Report casemoney April 25, 2020 7:35 PM BST
Non of the OPs listed Criteria have been reached , With Exception of the NHS coping .. For now ..
Report Reynard April 25, 2020 7:36 PM BST
Angoose - Very quick with the graphics , not so quick (forthcoming) with the actual figures Mischief
Report Angoose April 25, 2020 7:38 PM BST

Apr 25, 2020 -- 1:32PM, Reynard wrote:


........... for weeks 1 to 15 cumulatively . Thanks in advance


Weekly registered deaths in England and Wales.

Week 1 to 13 : Five Year Average 153,868, 2020 150,057
Week 14 : Five Year Average 10,305, 2020 16,387
Week 15 : Five Year Average 10,520, 2020 18,516

The figures are publicly available, feel free to check them out.

Report Reynard April 25, 2020 7:46 PM BST
Total deaths 5 year average  174693
Total deaths 2020 = 184960

How the hell is that a 59% increase , let alone a 76% increase ?
By my calculation it's less than a 6% increase . Hardly 'significant' . Just a variance .

Which raises the question : Why are your offerings so alarmist ? Do you have an agenda ? Confused
Report edy April 25, 2020 7:47 PM BST

Apr 25, 2020 -- 1:36PM, Reynard wrote:


Angoose - Very quick with the graphics , not so quick (forthcoming) with the actual figures


The duration between your post about it all being a hoax and Angoose posting the graphics was longer than the duration between you asking for the data and this post of yours.

Report Reynard April 25, 2020 7:49 PM BST
Where did I use the word 'hoax' ffs ? Another one who makes it up as he goes along Crazy
Report Angoose April 25, 2020 7:50 PM BST

Apr 25, 2020 -- 1:46PM, Reynard wrote:


Total deaths 5 year average  174693Total deaths 2020 = 184960How the hell is that a 59% increase , let alone a 76% increase ? By my calculation it's less than a 6% increase . Hardly 'significant' . Just a variance .Which raises the question : Why are your offerings so alarmist ? Do you have an agenda ?


How very inconvenient of COVID-19 not to start killing the British population starting on Week 1, eh.

16,387 / 10,305 = 1.59
18,516 / 10,520 = 1.76

Report Reynard April 25, 2020 7:51 PM BST
How many of the British population have been 'killed by COVID-19' ?
Report edy April 25, 2020 7:51 PM BST
Oh, by saying there hasn't been a significant rise and that people are merely inventing a new label for the death certificates you didn't mean to say it's all a hoax?

Alright. Sorry if that coupled with your history of spreading conspiracy theories about it indeed all being a hoax in the past gave me that impression.
Report edy April 25, 2020 7:56 PM BST
Reynard, do you really not recognise that there is something going on when there are consecutive weeks with significantly higher numbers of deaths? Numbers that aren't seen otherwise.
Report Angoose April 25, 2020 7:58 PM BST
Reynard, what measure of deaths has the Chief Medical Officer (Chris Whitty) been highlighting as the key measure of the impact of COVID-19 right from the outset ?
Report Reynard April 25, 2020 8:01 PM BST
edy - I agree , there is something going on , but I am not 100% sure exactly what it is . The nomber of deaths 'attributed' to Covid-19 has levelled off over the past fortnight so whatever this is as a result of it isn't COVID-19 .
Report edy April 25, 2020 8:03 PM BST
What's your best guess what it is?
Report PorcupineorPineapple April 25, 2020 8:03 PM BST
Why start at week 1? Let's go back to six months before that guy ate the bat and include those figures too!
#statisticalgeniusatwork
Report Reynard April 25, 2020 8:03 PM BST
How many of the British population have been 'killed' by COVID-19 , according to Mr Whitty ?
Report Reynard April 25, 2020 8:04 PM BST
20 ? 30 ?
Report Reynard April 25, 2020 8:04 PM BST
2,000 ? 20,000 ?
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- April 25, 2020 8:04 PM BST
likely spike due to idiots drinking bleach now Cry
Report 1st time poster April 25, 2020 8:06 PM BST
in carehomes,communitiy dr puts anything but covid on the death cert and its feet up gin and tonic in the sunshine ,in the garden,put covid in any shape or form and its extra paperwork,files,phone calls,etc,etc, whistleblowers have been saying it for 6 weeks now
Report Angoose April 25, 2020 8:08 PM BST

Apr 25, 2020 -- 2:03PM, Reynard wrote:


How many of the British population have been 'killed' by COVID-19 , according to Mr Whitty ?


Give us your definition of "killed by COVID-19" and then go on to explain how it would impact the deaths from all causes figures.

Report Reynard April 25, 2020 8:11 PM BST
How about you give your definition of "killed by COVID-19" seeing as how you introduced the phrase in your typically alarmist manner ? ?
Report InsiderTrader April 25, 2020 8:13 PM BST
Reynard
25 Apr 20 18:51
Joined: 30 Dec 02
| Topic/replies: 6,364 | Blogger: Reynard's blog
How many of the British population have been 'killed by COVID-19' ?

^

Difficult one this.

After the 500,000 worst case deaths paper was given credence by the UK government and Trump people with other conditions are too terrified to go to the hospital to get treatment.

Green zones in hospitals sitting empty with staff with nothing to do as people too scared to attend.

Deaths go up and will continue to go up due to the reaction to Covid.
Report InsiderTrader April 25, 2020 8:14 PM BST
The jail door could be opened tomorrow and most would remain self-imprisoned crying for the government to be tougher.
Report edy April 25, 2020 8:18 PM BST
IT, given what you have told us about you, shouldn't you be most understanding towards people locking themselves in? Will you stop self-imprisonment?
Report Angoose April 25, 2020 8:19 PM BST

Apr 25, 2020 -- 2:11PM, Reynard wrote:


How about you give your definition of "killed by COVID-19" seeing as how you introduced the phrase in your typically alarmist manner ? ?


Skipping the question, eh.
And if you bother to read the thread, you will see that you are the one who introduced the phrase that you do not wish to define.

But you already know that.

Report InsiderTrader April 25, 2020 8:21 PM BST
It should be a personal choice.

Trust the people.

I will do my bit to protect the vulnerable but I have nothing against the young, fit and health getting on with their lives. I do not want them to stop their education and building their careers to protect the vulnerable. Individuals and the state can do that in a focused way.
Report Reynard April 25, 2020 8:22 PM BST
By using the phrase "killed by COVID-19" you (and others) are implying that vast swathes of people are dying "from" COVID-19 whereas , in reality , they are being classifies on the death certificate as dying "with" COVID-19 .Massive difference . You are well aware of a situation which I have personal experience of in which an 89 year old hospital patient was diagnosed as having tested positive for COVID-19 when a diagnosed heart problem led doctors to believe they wouldn't survive the night and two days later when they responded well to treatment they were told that they didn't have COVID-19 and may be well enough to return home to their 86 year old spouse .
How do you explain this ?


Angoose • April 25, 2020 7:50 PM BST
How very inconvenient of COVID-19 not to start killing the British population starting on Week 1, eh.

................ fair enough Blush
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- April 25, 2020 8:23 PM BST
why do you use 500,000 when 200,000 was used by government


probably 28,000 killed by covid so far, some may have been on their way out, but it still robbed them
of precious time.
Report Reynard April 25, 2020 8:24 PM BST
probably 28,000 killed by covid so far, some may have been on their way out, but it still robbed them
of precious time.

Misleading turn of phrase .
Report InsiderTrader April 25, 2020 8:26 PM BST
I think more likely 40,000.

When all said and done one way or another it will be over 100,000 in the UK that directly or indirectly die from this with the current plan.

The longer we keep people locked up the longer we delay the pain.
Report edy April 25, 2020 8:26 PM BST
How do you explain this ?

Simple, you made it up.

I think it's a big, big coincidence that first you come on here spreading stuff about it being all exosomes and a hoax. Then when people obviously shoot down your total bollocks, you come back like two days later telling everyone how your suspicions had been verrified because your super isolated for four weeks dad had been tested positive for SARS-CoV2 and further confirmed because doctors acted completely against protocol (as you just told us again).
Report InsiderTrader April 25, 2020 8:28 PM BST
As far as I can tell Belgium, Sweden and to some extent France are the only ones including suspected care home deaths.
Report Reynard April 25, 2020 8:29 PM BST
edy • April 25, 2020 8:26 PM BST
How do you explain this ?

Simple, you made it up.

What sort of warped mind suggests that I make something up involving my own father ?



My sister asked this very same question and was told "There are two different tests" . She replied "Is that one test designed to give a positive result and another test designed to give a negative result?" .
Report edy April 25, 2020 8:31 PM BST
What kind of man makes such things up about his dad?

People with an agenda to convince it's all a hoax.
Report PorcupineorPineapple April 25, 2020 8:31 PM BST
Just gone on Twitter and seen Hopkins and her usual amplifiers making exactly the same points I've seen on her.


Pretty clear that there are some pretty influential people out there looking to get the public to get back to work despite the risks. Weird (well) how it's the brexity types who parroted every message from these types then are the same ones swallowing the rich capitalist message now.
Report Reynard April 25, 2020 8:33 PM BST
I have no 'agenda' because I don't possess the power to push one Cool
Report edy April 25, 2020 8:34 PM BST
Why did you ask Angoose earler in this thread if he has an agenda. Do you think he possessed the power to push one?
Report InsiderTrader April 25, 2020 8:36 PM BST
pp, what on earth has the lockdown got to do with Brexit?

It is really strange to find the same people who always argued against me supporting Boris and the Tories when that sort of things mattered now supporting the Tory governments's actions as the best policy compared to the socialist Swedes.

It is almost like the world is inverted.

Except it is not. Some people support individual freedom and liberal values - no lock down and trust the public. Some are not so liberal. They want the government to tell them what to do.
Report Reynard April 25, 2020 8:37 PM BST
I simply won't automatically accept as truth the statements made by individuals who choose a career within an industry that is reliant on spreading untruths and lying to the general public by misuse of statistics and deception .
Report edy April 25, 2020 8:37 PM BST
Instead you blindly accept the most illogical nonsense from your favourite grifters.
Report Reynard April 25, 2020 8:39 PM BST
I 'blindly accept' nothing . I prefer to use judgement based on personal experience and logic .
Report edy April 25, 2020 8:41 PM BST
You agreed earlier that there was something going on with the deaths, but you weren't sure what it was exactly. I asked you what your best guess was.

Do you wish to answer what your best conclusion is what is causing the significantly higher death numbers in consecutive weeks?
Report ben96 April 25, 2020 8:46 PM BST
Going back to the opening post am i correct in thinking the main obejective of the lockdown was to make sure the NHS could cope and capacity was available? We know the lockdown has worked and the NHS now has plenty of capacity with admissions dropping by the day. Surely now the government should be clear on what its exit strategy is nothing is going to change in the next week or so they need to start giving the public some optimism and honesty. The longer they keep saying there is no end in sight the more people will lose hope and start breaking the lockdown as we are starting to see.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- April 25, 2020 8:46 PM BST
porc/pineapple


it was obvious when insider trader started 6 threads with same message that the slave bots were being activated to spread this message

tried and trusted to stay on message whatever they are told.

its sad.
Report InsiderTrader April 25, 2020 8:51 PM BST
Sensible criteria before softening lockdown now we have artificially suppressed the virus:

1. Make sure the NHS can cope with potential covid patients in either separate Nightingale hospitals or red zone in regular hospitals so normal medical services can resume with confidence.

2. Ensure supply of PPE can meet future demand in the NHS and care homes.

3. make a government department with a Minister of Shielding who has direct responsibility for older and other vulnerable people to focus on their protection as the virus spreads between the younger, fitter population.

Be honest with the public that fit 20 year old woman had a 1 in 10000 chance of dying and an older person with a bad heart condition has a 1 in 3 chance of dying. Then the policies and guidelines will work.
Report Reynard April 25, 2020 8:53 PM BST
edy - excellent question and one that , if I answered it without consideration , may leave me open to even more excellent and difficult questions .
I honestly cannot fathom out how there is a significant rise in the UK death rate in a two week period where so-called COVID-19 deaths have levelled out to some extent . If these figures are correct , and I have absolutely zero evidence to prove or suggest otherwise , it is quite baffling . It is possible , but only a possibility , that there has been an increase in the number of people who have died because they have not sought immediate medical attention for a serious problem due to the perceived fear of going to hospital . But a 4-figure increase would suggest that there may be other factors involved , possibly surrounding the recording/reporting of deaths .
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- April 25, 2020 9:01 PM BST
be honest with the public


lol

they are tories
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- April 25, 2020 9:02 PM BST
oh yeah, so are you!
Report SontaranStratagem April 25, 2020 9:04 PM BST
We've had 20,000 but no no no that's not good enough

So the media are saying its double that because 20,000 just isn't scaring anyone

Bless em Laugh. We seem to be the only country using the death number in hospital as well, does that mean we are the champions of Covid 19?
Report edy April 25, 2020 9:06 PM BST
But a 4-figure increase would suggest that there may be other factors involved , possibly surrounding the recording/reporting of deaths .

You think the authorities are making up deaths that never happened?
Report SontaranStratagem April 25, 2020 9:07 PM BST
I do love how everyone is indulging in a little "conspiracy theory" though, but soon as some of us go the other way we get ridiculed

The conspiracy seems to be we have way more deaths being hidden, hiding bodies?

Wouldn't neighbours start smelling the decomposing bodies by now? Ohh, nope that's conspiracy theory sonta
Report PorcupineorPineapple April 25, 2020 9:21 PM BST
There's clearly something going on Donny. I follow a lot of people I don't agree with on Twitter and it's just too coincidental to see so many basically copying each other about the Swedish guy and the need to end lockdown now.

Some serious people are obviously losing money and need the worker bees back making them rich again. Nowadays you just need to engage your social media influencers and thousands of people think they've come to their own independent conclusion the next day. Simple.
Report edy April 25, 2020 9:22 PM BST
Astroturfing is awesome!
Report InsiderTrader April 25, 2020 9:26 PM BST
pp, what is your main criticism of how Sweden has handled this?
Report Manoleeds April 25, 2020 9:28 PM BST
The tests have been met https://thecritic.co.uk/its-hurting-but-its-just-not-working/
Report Reynard April 25, 2020 9:28 PM BST
edy • April 25, 2020 9:06 PM BST

You think the authorities are making up deaths that never happened?

I simply cannot see how that is possible , yet at the same time I cannot see how it is impossible . After all , they're just numbers innit Whoops
Report PorcupineorPineapple April 25, 2020 9:31 PM BST
Sont - conspiracy theory for you. My mum's best mate died last week. Caught the virus, got worse so went to stay with her daughter (who caught it but recovered), went into hospital and finally on to a vent.

Was on the vent for about two weeks. Tried to take her off a few times but she was never strong enough and then finally deteriorated.

She smoked most of her life but otherwise no health problems. Was still working and should have been you g to Benidorm next month.

Her daughter was recently told that she died of heart failure. When she had no history of heart problems.

If you're asking about a conspiracy maybe look at the authorities facing a lot of criticism, now officially past the "good outcome " phase with more to come and are maybe doing what they can to keep the numbers down that can be linked back to their own decisions.
Report SontaranStratagem April 25, 2020 9:33 PM BST
She was old PP?? And she died of heart failure you just said so yourself in the post

The good outcome was the best possible outcome, we were always heading for 50,000+ overall, and that's over 18 months
Report PorcupineorPineapple April 25, 2020 9:34 PM BST
My criticism if the Swedish guy is that he too confident (best scientists are aware of their own limitations and speak more in their own % chance of being right) and he was happy to make assertions but as we discussed yesterday maybe there wasn't the right amount of evidence behind them.
Report PorcupineorPineapple April 25, 2020 9:37 PM BST
Yep, early 70's. Fit and well though. Helped my mum out a lot, still working five days a week and very much enjoying her life.


There's not the remotest doubt that she'd still be here if she hadn't caught the virus. But that's not what the officials want us to believe.
Report SontaranStratagem April 25, 2020 9:40 PM BST
In fact I think this thing was here in late 2017 personally, if there is such a thing (IT ain't a virus its bacterial) because there's no way they would be reporting on it now if it just got here, they'd be hiding it like they did with the real bad flu season we had a few years ago, not one peep of that season from the media it was like it was invisible ffs

Its in the air if there is such a thing, its not something you can catch from someone else, it very much is airborne which means there's a life span for it.

I'm fit PP, do running daily and am getting pretty quick and fit/stamina, doesn't mean I can't die from something underlying I don't know about, only takes a bad turn out running one day and it could be lights out Sad

I've always had sinus problems, could be something more sinister that hasn't reared its ugly head yet?
Report InsiderTrader April 25, 2020 9:57 PM BST
sorry to here that pp.
Report InsiderTrader April 25, 2020 9:58 PM BST
* hear
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- April 25, 2020 9:58 PM BST
its clearly orchestrated in usa and uk.

russians need to flog their oil.





so sad to lose anybody, moreso when its a close friend.

swedish guy is a totem yet hes simply producing poor figures and trading on past reputation and goodwill.
Report InsiderTrader April 25, 2020 10:00 PM BST
YHAL Sweden is so far so good. Time will tell.

That Neil Ferguson interview today was interesting as he seems convinced Sweden will suffer and he stood by his 0.9% mortality rate.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- April 25, 2020 10:02 PM BST
in your brain it is, to most folk they have increased rate by not locking down.

when you have forgotten him he will be remembered for the extra deaths he brought to sweden.
Report InsiderTrader April 25, 2020 10:05 PM BST
Brought the UK you mean?
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- April 25, 2020 10:05 PM BST
the weather is set to break this coming week

the sun will have saved pressure on givernment but when rain forces folk to stay locked up inside your fake message may find more
fertile ground
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- April 25, 2020 10:06 PM BST
the swedish guy?

no to sweden, has he been killing brits as well?

not yet, but if you whack jobs get your way, who knows.
Report InsiderTrader April 25, 2020 10:06 PM BST
Oh I thought you meant the Imperial guy.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- April 25, 2020 10:09 PM BST
cummings might be in trouble so russia report may have to be published

johnson kompromat detail released ...
Report SontaranStratagem April 25, 2020 10:12 PM BST
With the weather breaking expect Sky News to be running round with body bags again
Report jucel69 April 25, 2020 10:15 PM BST

Apr 25, 2020 -- 4:09PM, ----you-have-to-laugh--- wrote:


cummings might be in trouble so russia report may have to be publishedjohnson kompromat detail released ...


yawn

Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- May 3, 2020 4:14 PM BST
no 5 has been altered by government without pointing out it has been altered
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