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Have Sweden flattened the curve without trashing the economy?
Have Sweden flattened the curve without trashing the economy?
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Another theory I read was that the BCG vaccine is a factor.
Still mandatory in most East European countries, but largely abandoned in the West. Sweden dropped it a decade or so before Denmark/Norway. Italy seems to have been the country that used it least of all, never mandatory at any point. |
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We have small care homes in uk too
Doesn't save em if they get infected and are barred from going to hospital to receive the treatment they have paid for all their lives. No idea how big or small Swedish care homes are. |
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genetic protection, i havent heard that before. czechia, slovakia, albania and greece all mandated mask wearing among other measures.
smaller size care homes = less problems seems like common sense for sure. you havent answered how long immunity lasts or how strong immunity is? you cant because you dont know, it's a guess. still no reliable data about what % of the swedish population have been infected it seems. trader put up some guesses, i thought he said about now they would have herd immunity yet their daily cases dont look like it is moving much. |
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For the countries you listed perhaps there is genetic protection and pre immunity for most of them. Maybe we will find out.
For Denmark/Norway one thing i heard about Norway was that their care homes are more typically very small scale, with 6 or 7 residents living in a converted fairly normal sized house. Swedish care homes are apparently more like the ones we have, where a huge building has been converted or purpose built, with scores of residents. That could be a big factor if so. |
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I wouldn't worry so much about herd immunity and rather wonder about just how long does immunity last, because if it doesn't last for a substantial length of time it makes the sacrifices less worthy.
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what are the signs of herd immunity please? two studies were withdrawn and i havent seen them reappear.
i was hoping it may run its course but it doesnt look like it is going away in sweden and it looks like it is picking up again in iran. sadly i am moreconfusedthanever.com  |
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well they will have the option of going for herd immunity themselves if that proves a goer so they certainly do have more options. no answer from you tobermory as to how they have done compared to all the countries i listed. and as donny alludes to, what evidence do you have on herd immunity? how long does it last, how strong is it and how widespread is herd immunity in sweden? all i know is that everyone infected is producing antibodies whether asymptomatic or symptomatic, and that doesnt answer the questions i have just asked.
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As for Sweden deaths peaked over a month ago. Again, it seems to run it's course and that's it.
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Plenty of signs of herd immunity.
Why are confirmed new cases only 1 or 2 a day in London boroughs but 15-20 per day in Shropshire Is it the lockdown in London ? Is there no lockdown in Shropshire Or has the virus run it's course in London (which likely means herd immunity) |
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There is no evidence of herd immunity in Sweden only a failed policy
leading to mass slaughter. As for UK, yes we are worse, and no sign of herd immunity. |
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They will have less options if the counties where it spread far and wide have herd immunity and they don't
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they thought they were dealing with the flu and it took them ages to realise it was not the flu.
in the long run, unless a vaccine is found, we will probably have to accept it being here at a certain level, it will be endemic. countries that have tried to stop the spread will have more options. |
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NOT admitting them to hospital
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Treatment of the elderly/care home patients is tantamount to murder, refusing to give them oxygen, admitting them to hospital, not calling ambulances, pressurised into signing DNR forms, lack of PPE etc, all this has contributed massively to the inflated death toll figures which in turn has impacted governments decisions in dealing with timings and details of lockdowns easing. Tbh the UK governments handling in particular from start to finish has been a cowboy operation.
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may be we make too much of official lock downs anyway?
https://quillette.com/2020/05/08/enough-with-the-phoney-lockdown-debate/ |
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Deaths in care homes in Sweden have nothing to do with not locking down. They'd have happened either way, they f'd up just like lots of countries who locked down did and they've come out and held their hands up, unlike the others who claim they're doing a great job.
Take the care home deaths of every country out when comparing lockdown v no lockdown. Lockdown is not designed to protect people in care homes. It's designed to protect people outside of care institutions. |
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how are they doing compared to czechia, slovakia, albania, greece, denmark, finland, norway, south korea, taiwan, singapore or hong kong?
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Sweden did stop visitors to care homes at the end of March.
Sweden still much better off than UK/Italy/France/Belgium.... |
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Killing old folk is acceptable to make a point, or try to?
Different to their kids, grand kids, great grand kids And unnecessary Sweden still much much worse than their neighbours A failed policy |
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Yes, the care home figures in Sweden have been terrible. And clearly it was policy failure which the Swedish PM at least acknowledges.
It seems the same issue in many countries, for the same reason of prioritizing space in the hospitals for the anticipated waves of covid patients. However the fact that half Swedish deaths were in care homes shows how relatively little impact the virus had had in the wider population even without a lockdown. |
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Care home residents account for nearly half of deaths linked to Covid-19 in Sweden. Some healthcare workers believe an institutional reluctance to admit patients to hospital is costing lives.
Lili Sedghi's father, Reza, was not seen by a doctor on the day he died from coronavirus, at his care home in northern Stockholm. A nurse told her he'd had a morphine shot in the hours before he passed away, but he was not given oxygen, nor did staff call an ambulance. "No-one was there and he died alone," says Ms Sedghi. "It's so unfair." Most of the 3,698 people who have died from coronavirus in Sweden so far were over 70, despite the fact that the country said shielding risk groups was its top priority. Sweden, with 10m inhabitants, has kept more of society open than is the case in most of Europe. "We did not manage to protect the most vulnerable people, the most elderly, despite our best intentions," Prime Minister Stefan Löfven admitted last week. The Swedish Public Health Agency told the BBC that 48.9% of deaths were care home residents up to and including 14 May. |
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Ttt
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Mickes, unlike most record shops in Europe, is still open for business. The compact store in southern Stockholm, crammed with thousands of vinyl LPs, last week enjoyed a steady stream of customers taking advantage of Sweden’s no-lockdown approach to coronavirus.
But owner Micke Englund said that while he was happy his shop was not closed, his business had still been hit hard by Covid-19. “When people became aware of coronavirus around March 12, we lost almost overnight 30 per cent. It’s OK. For a couple of months, it will work. But after that it will be very, very tough,” he said. Sweden refused to follow other European countries in closing its primary schools and kindergartens or banning people from leaving their homes, arguing that taking such “draconian measures” was not sustainable and could unnecessarily harm the economy. Swedish business leaders such as Jacob Wallenberg have urged authorities to take the economy into consideration when thinking of imposing restrictions, or risk social unrest. Sweden, with a population of 10m, has had 3,220 deaths so far from coronavirus — more than triple the number in neighbouring Denmark, Finland and Norway, which have a combined population of 15m. Relative to population 311 people have died per million in Sweden, while in neighbouring Norway the toll so far is 40 per million. Early figures for Sweden’s gross domestic product in the first quarter of 2020, released this week, suggested that at least in March it had performed better than much of the EU as it recorded a decline of just 0.3 per cent, compared with a 3.8 per cent fall for the eurozone. Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email licensing@ft.com to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found at https://www.ft.com/tour. https://www.ft.com/content/93105160-dcb4-4721-9e58-a7b262cd4b6e But economists argue that Sweden is unlikely in the long term to escape the severe economic pain of the rest of Europe. The European Commission forecasts that Sweden’s GDP will fall by 6.1 per cent this year. The Riksbank, the country’s central bank, has an even gloomier outlook, estimating that GDP will contract by 7-10 per cent, with unemployment peaking at between 9 and 10.4 per cent. These are disastrous figures for the Scandinavian country. “It is too early to say that we would do better than others. In the end, we think Sweden will end up more or less the same,” said Christina Nyman, a former deputy head of monetary policy at the Riksbank who is now chief economist at lender Handelsbanken. One big reason is that Sweden is a small, open economy with a large manufacturing industry. Truckmaker Volvo Group and carmaker Volvo Cars were both forced to stop production for several weeks, not because of conditions in Sweden but due to lack of parts and difficulties in their supply chains elsewhere in Europe. Ms Nyman noted that despite being relatively little hit directly by the 2008 financial crisis Sweden’s economy still suffered more than many. Data on the use of public transport, credit cards and restaurants show big falls in Sweden as authorities urge people to work from home where possible and maintain social distancing. But the declines are less precipitous than other European countries under full lockdown. “Activity in Sweden is grim, maybe not as grim as elsewhere, but it is still unprecedented declines,” said David Oxley, senior Europe economist at Capital Economics. He argued that the relatively healthy first-quarter growth figures were helped by January and February being stronger than expected. For March, he added: “It’s certainly reasonable to expect that they wouldn’t experience the same sudden stop as other economies.” Ms Nyman said she believed that without the no-lockdown policy, Sweden would have been harder hit, as in 2008. “If we didn’t have these better circumstances, we would have done worse. Usually, we are more severely hit by a global recession,” she added. Economists at Swedish bank SEB estimate Sweden’s GDP will drop 6.5 per cent this year, about the same as the US and Germany, but a little better than Norway and ahead of 9-10 per cent falls in Finland and Denmark, all of which have had lockdowns. The Riksbank has focused on keeping the supply of credit functioning rather than rate cuts. Governor Stefan Ingves told the Financial Times that much of the economy had shut down “in one way or the other” and that “if people are staying at home, it’s hard to stimulate”. Asked if Sweden’s economy would fare better than others’, he replied: “We simply don’t know. I’m not an epidemiologist. There are so many unknowns in all this. Different countries will do different things because they have different ways of deciding. Time will tell where we end up compared with other countries.” Some suggest that Sweden may reap some benefits as it continues with its current path while other countries grapple with how to reopen their economies. “Sweden’s strategy should be sustainable for a long time. When you open up, people can be more afraid, there’s more uncertainty,” said Ms Nyman. But Mr Oxley stressed that Sweden was still dependent on demand and supply chains in other countries. “There’s only a limited amount of upside to being contrary when the rest of the world is doing the opposite,” he added. Back at Mickes record shop, Mr Englund said that many had compared Sweden’s high death toll unfavourably with neighbouring Denmark, Norway and Finland, but that it came out well compared with the UK, France or Italy. “When they open up the countries again, they will start from square one. We won’t. But no one knows if our strategy was good, very good, or a disaster. Maybe we will know in a year’s time,” he added. |
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the right wing media getting on message,photo,s in mail etc that were considered covidiots 2 weeks ago,which are now worse ,more people are been described as people enjoying sun whilst social distancing
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We can't measure what R is today... As far as I know until the random tests
Are done same day. But can see what it was a week or so ago and extrapolate Based on day before and day before etc And therefore see if measures are working and if it drops we can release the lockdown slowly. R on v E day may well lead to a small increase in admissions to hospital in 10-14 days Based on photos and videos on twitter |
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R is rate in uk not rate one person infects at
If it is squeezed out then one person infecting 12 others will barely register if those 12 are quickly found and isolated R is actual rate not potential rate |
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Chris Witty knows so much about the topic and how to avoid it spreading that he caught it himself.
Hardly inspires confidence in his advise when he could not even take measures to protect himself. |
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If it comes to a vote, you can count on me to support your promotion to Chief Scientific Officer
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Of course transmission rate can be important. No sense in it being out of control. Also no sense in people being shielded to the point of gaining no antibodies.
Either way, the R rate mustn’t be used to keep us in lockdown when it’s such a crude figure. |
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Injera, here is a 1 hour 21 minutes lecture by Chris Witty from last week.
He's a dull presenter, but it remains an interesting lecture, but still only scratches at the surface of a highly complex topic. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3BdPKpWbxTg |
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That the daily briefings are not six hour long lectures in to the minutiae of epidemiology is probably very welcome by the majority of the public.
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Not sure anyone on this thread has ever claimed it to be anything other than a crude average, and pretty certain that all epidemiologist's would agree with the general statement made by Mark Woolhouse back in 2001.
However, to imagine that the rate of transmissions of an infectious disease is not important is for the birds. That there are many other variables to be considered, doesn't diminish the fact that the rate of transmission is a key metric. That the daily briefings are not six hour long lectures in to the minutiae of epidemiology is problem very welcome by the majority of the public. |
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----you-have-to-laugh---
09 May 20 11:37 Joined: 06 Jul 10 | Topic/replies: 7,923 | Blogger: ----you-have-to-laugh---'s blog You need to compare like with like to get estimate of R Hospital admission figures are about most accurate relevant data But still varies because of time between contracting corona and going to hospital As NHS capacity was also relevant, they must be using these figures. When it's all over they can feed in all the data and see what R was with A greater degree of accuracy, but main thing is comparing it to 1,and getting it down to below 0.5 short term and then on to below 0.01 ^ How on earth do you get the R below 0.01 unless you have everyone locked up in own place on own or you have herd immunity? If someone has the virus surely there is a natural rate of infection. As we reduce the lockdown restrictions the R rate will go up. Surely it is all about restricting number of cases not the R rate if you want any type of normal life. R is is function of activity/herd immunity not location or number of people infected. |
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we,re in a very lucky position, as the right keep telling us these people would have died anyway,so weve nothing to lose by carrying on as people like,and we,ll see an answer one way or another
lots of smaller towns in germany reinforcing rules after a jump in numbers |
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Thanks for that....
The line being drawn is that the R number is the latest reason given to maintain the lockdown. Given we can all agree it’s a crude number, why are we giving it greater importance than it deserves? |
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You need to compare like with like to get estimate of R
Hospital admission figures are about most accurate relevant data But still varies because of time between contracting corona and going to hospital As NHS capacity was also relevant, they must be using these figures. When it's all over they can feed in all the data and see what R was with A greater degree of accuracy, but main thing is comparing it to 1,and getting it down to below 0.5 short term and then on to below 0.01 |
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Czech Airlines will restart part of its operations later this month after a six-week interruption.
The airline will resume some of its services on 18 May, with flights to Amsterdam, Frankfurt, Paris and Stockholm among those reopened in the first wave. |
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1TP - what an idiotic moment that was yesterday! Still can’t believe that exchange. A question about McDonald’s....
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