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Have Sweden flattened the curve without trashing the economy?
Have Sweden flattened the curve without trashing the economy?
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Lurka what makes you think the UK style of Lockdown, the French style of lockdown or the Swedish social distancing measures make a scrap of difference on actual number of deaths?
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What nearly every chief epidemiologist has said and what has happened in previous pandemics of this scale.
What expert or relevant historic evidence makes you think they don't make a scrap of difference. |
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lurka
24 Apr 20 10:09 Joined: 25 Oct 10 | Topic/replies: 15,293 | Blogger: lurka's blog What nearly every chief epidemiologist has said and what has happened in previous pandemics of this scale. ^ Which previous pandemic of this scale has a French style lock down resulted in less deaths than Swedish style social distancing? |
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I don't think there is an example ie there is no historic evidence that they don't make a scrap of difference.
There is plenty of historic evidence that not restricting the spread leads to too many people becoming infected at the same time, hospitals becoming overwhelmed, death rates from all illnesses spiking and people of all ages dying. You are basically rubbishing the entire science of epidemiology if you think otherwise. |
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insofar as epidemiology relates to a pandemic policy I mean
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So Lurka your view is Neil Ferguson is Correct and Anders Tegnell but you have no evidence to back up your hunch?
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* So Lurka your view is Neil Ferguson is Correct and Anders Tegnell is wrong but you have no evidence to back up your hunch?
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loads of swedes now getting the virus
some will show no symptoms they will then travel around the world spreading misery wherever they go should swedes be banned from international travel to contries carrying out test and trace policies? they pose a massive risk... |
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maybe trump can inject some disinfectant into his supporters so insider trader doesnt have to look quite so silly
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Mr Tegnell went on to claim up to 20 percent of residents in Stockholm have already had the virus.
He said: "We believe that we have an immunity level, if I remember rightly, somewhere between 15-20 per cent of the population in Stockholm. "This is not complete herd immunity but it will definitely affect the reproduction rate and slow down the spread." Stockholm accounts for around half of Sweden's 15,300 confirmed cases of COVID-19, the respiratory disease caused by the virus, and a high proportion of its 1,765 deaths, including among very elderly people living in care homes. The public health agency said its modelling suggested the rate of new infections in the city had peaked on April 15, although a decline was not yet evident from its data. Anders Wallensten, the deputy state epidemiologist at the agency, told reporters at a daily news briefing: "Already a bit more than a week ago, the peak was reached, at least according to this model, and we can expect fewer cases each day." Modelling using data from random testing and cases reported to hospitals showed that around one-third of Stockholm's population will have contracted the coronavirus by May 1. "But you also have to remember ... that two-thirds have not been infected and can still get it," Wallensten added. The study estimated that for each case confirmed by the authorities, 999 milder cases were not recorded because people did not seek medical help. https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1273305/coronavirus-sweden-update-eu-latest-lockdown-restrictions-uk-covid-19 ^ UK is going to start doing a similar random sample test shortly. Results should be interesting. |
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they were posting youtube videos from a swedish crop circle whack job yesterday to support this already failed swedish
policy its such a shame that the easily led and being errr, easily led. |
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That is amazing if only 1 in 100 cases positive cases has been tested.
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YHTL.
Why do you think the Swedish method has failed? |
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you keep asking people for proof and evidence and post nothing but guesses, estimates, and pure speculation to back up your crusade to get down the pub to kill more britains
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it clearly has failed the evidence has been posted on all 5 threads you have started in your crusade to get down the pub to kill more britains
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YHTL,
As far as I can see in terms of people dying with the virus the Swedish and UK methods have made no difference. I am merely asking you to point out where the numbers differ. |
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you aint looking beyond your five thread blinkers
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if you read instead of posting nonsence you would see the evidence on your five threads
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All I have for you is death per million are lower in Sweden where there is no lock down compared to the UK an France where there are lock downs of different levels.
Why is it nonsense to question why this is the case? |
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but you can compare sweden to the countries around it and it has clearly failed
you are picking the two worst cases run by nut jobs who couldnt run a bath |
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uk lockdown was too late meaning it will be longer than otherwise.
you talk about deaths caused in future by austerity of lockdown but failed to see the deaths caused by ten years of tory austerity that they chose to inflict upon the poor of this country. how many does your model show were killed by tory austerity how many more will die by tories trashing the economy by locking down too late so clown boris could get a photo op by shaking hands with corona patients? |
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YHTL,
Do you really think Macron is a nut job? |
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lol
macron, no you compared to uk and usa i note you must agree clown boris is a nut job by your lack of dissent and you recognise the tory failings by your lack of dissent and damage to economy by lack of dissent your tangents work both ways ! |
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IT- Ferguson was wrong, he didn't even factor in increased hospital capacity for starters.
Tegnell is doing a good job. But Tegnell like every epidemiologist looks at how it is spreading and recommends measures based on that to keep it in check. Sweden is not set up for it to spread like the UK but it can still spread too quickly in left unchecked over there, which is why he brought in social distancing measures, closed airports to non-essential travel from outside the EEA/Switz (which UK never did), told old people to isolate, banned sports events and eventually gatherings of over 50 people etc. If he thought the spread had got too far out of hand at any stage he'd have recommended more restrictive measures but it didn't get to that level. He did what was needed at every stage. The UK didn't do what was needed in the early stages. For the nth and last time, a lockdown is necessary and inevitable if you fúck up early on and let the spread get out of control. Then you have to wait until the spread gets back down to a level where it was before you fúcked up. Then you don't do the same thing, you take different measures, which is what the UK will do. The mistake the UK and most countries made was letting the spread get out of hand early on. Calling for release of lockdown when you are at peak is madness. You are too late to complain about it now and just have to wait. You are aggrieved because they fúcked up early on but you still don't seem to realise that and are complaining about measures that are in place now because of that fúck up early on. Not being concerned about the spread at sporting events because they are outdoors etc. Did Tegnell recommend that? Did he recommend keeping airports open to all travel even now? No because he's on the ball and he's the one making the decisions not a clown like Boris. |
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From that description, you might be tempted to disbelieve the UK governments claim to be taking "the right measures at the right time".
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PP,
That is an interesting point about 20% in Sweden. A few weeks ago the UK CMO said we were probably 5-10% in the UK. Blind testing in California (where they have had lockdown for weeks are 5.3%). Researchers at KTH send out 1000 test kits for a blind sample test on 7th April for Stockholm but not seen results yet. |
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So it was a guess then
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Lurka's point above. The mistake the UK and most countries made was letting the spread get out of hand early on.
With population demographics (Obesity the latest deemed statistically significant) and early policies between countries being differenmt you can't start from NOW and think we should be adopting the same approach. |
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I imagine it was from their model.
It sounds reasonable to me. |
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For Sweden to have failed it would need to suffer those catastrophic death figures predicted for Countries failing to lockdown, and Sweden isn't, though, judging by some posts, there are a few who wish they were.
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So is the consensus that every country that now has a lock down all messed up early on?
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Or indeed go back to when we entered lockdown and think we should have stayed open, all the science was saying this would have led to catastrophic loss of life and an overwhelmed health service.
Repeatedly keep saying I know fook all about diseases like most on here but I'm happy with the modelling and the science into lockdown but I'm sure mistakes were made early and we were caught with our pants down looking for the bog roll. Unless I go along with some of the conspiracy theories on here and debunk most of the consensus on the science the Lockdown HERE was absolutely the right thing to do. |
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Insider Trader I think there's a very high chance in early march I had the virus. Testing had already been stopped in the community and yet mass gathering were still taking place. The subsequent admission from govt is that the disease had been seeded too far in the population to be able to test in the community (obviously we know now we had an extremely poor testing regime going into this numbers wise in any case!).
I can't talk for other countries I'm talking for the UK. |
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I know nothing of disease but I know of statistics from my A levels/Uni education.
I've seen nothing other than conspiracy to suggest that a lockdown was inevitable once the exponential rise in cases was out of control. |
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Do you think Tegnell would have done exactly the same as the UK did if, instead of Stockholm, a city stretched across 14 islands where 50+% of people live alone and most people work from home at least some of the time, he had London, where rents are unaffordable and a lot of people are forced to live on top of each other crammed into boxes with an airport like Heathrow and a few others serving it? Do you think he'd have told people not to worry about sporting events and not closed airports to some degree?
You are comparing apples with oranges here while they are halfway through completely different approaches. Why don't we do what they are doing now?  Too late and there are no measures anyone could have taken even at the start to turn a city like London into Stockholm in terms of how quickly it spreads. That means you should have taken much more restrictive measures than already in place in Sweden at the start and you didn't take any, you encouraged the spread instead, shaking hands with people in hospitals and telling people not to worry about sporting events FFS. No comparison. |
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You didn't even close sporting events. Arteta did FFS
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