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Have Sweden flattened the curve without trashing the economy?

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Replies: 680
By:
InsiderTrader
When: 03 Jun 20 11:06
All countries should be compared for excess death figures in a year or so.

Then we also see how many died in carehomes etc due to lack of access to healthcare due to lockdown.
By:
InsiderTrader
When: 03 Jun 20 11:08
'Prof Lockdown' Neil Ferguson admits Sweden used same science as UK 

The scientist behind lockdown in the UK has admitted that Sweden has achieved roughly the same suppression of coronavirus without draconian restrictions.

Neil Ferguson, who became known as “professor lockdown” after convincing Boris Johnson to radically curtail everyday freedoms, acknowledged that, despite relying on “quite similar science”, the Swedish authorities had “got a long way to the same effect” without a full lockdown.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/02/prof-lockdown-neil-ferguson-admits-sweden-used-science-uk-has/
By:
Angoose
When: 03 Jun 20 11:22
Are Estonia, Denmark, Finland, and Norway valid countries for comparison purposes ?
By:
InsiderTrader
When: 03 Jun 20 11:35
All countries are valid Angoose.

Every country in the world.
By:
Angoose
When: 03 Jun 20 11:47
So that's a yes then.
By:
1st time poster
When: 03 Jun 20 11:52
644 posts and the 645th could have been the 1st and last

bloke in charge of sweedish response said he got it wrong
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 03 Jun 20 11:55
Insider traitor will double down again, that's what he does.

Hey ho
By:
InsiderTrader
When: 03 Jun 20 11:57
Ferguson saying that the virus was much more advanced in the UK than he thought when he modeled it and also saying Sweden has suppressed the virus the same as the UK without needed a lockdown is a massive statement.
By:
InsiderTrader
When: 03 Jun 20 11:57

Jun 3, 2020 -- 11:55AM, ----you-have-to-laugh--- wrote:


Insider traitor will double down again, that's what he does.Hey ho


Why do you write 'insider traitor'?

By:
PorcupineorPineapple
When: 03 Jun 20 12:00
Suddenly, we're paying attention to Ferguson again.


What a time to be alive.
By:
InsiderTrader
When: 03 Jun 20 12:01

Jun 3, 2020 -- 12:00PM, PorcupineorPineapple wrote:


Suddenly, we're paying attention to Ferguson again.What a time to be alive.


Ferguson saying his models had the wrong inputs given that they were the basis for the UK lockdown is quite a big change PP.

By:
lapsy pa
When: 03 Jun 20 12:02
Everyone is wrong at times but the pushing of herd immunity was tantamount to murder imo.The countries that locked down quick can operate and are,a messy drawn out affair now for herd immunity advocates,idiots who have cost lives.
By:
InsiderTrader
When: 03 Jun 20 12:02
Remember Gupta from the start suggested that the virus was more embedded in the UK in early March than Ferguson thought and thus the rate of growth would be different to what Ferguson thought.
By:
InsiderTrader
When: 03 Jun 20 12:04
Lockdown after the virus is embedded has proved pointless.
By:
lapsy pa
When: 03 Jun 20 12:06
You kept pushing herd immunity on numerous threads IT.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 03 Jun 20 12:08
100s of threads Sad
By:
Angoose
When: 03 Jun 20 12:08

Jun 3, 2020 -- 12:04PM, InsiderTrader wrote:


Lockdown after the virus is embedded has proved pointless.


Where is that proof ?

By:
InsiderTrader
When: 03 Jun 20 12:08
As a by-product sure. 10-20% infected pulls the R down massively.
By:
InsiderTrader
When: 03 Jun 20 12:11

Jun 3, 2020 -- 12:08PM, Angoose wrote:


Jun  3, 2020 -- 11:04AM, InsiderTrader wrote:Lockdown after the virus is embedded has proved pointless.Where is that proof ?


The proof is Ferguson saying Sweden achieved the same as UK without lockdown.

The proof is that the infections were more widespread in the UK before lockdown than the modeller thought. Deaths peaked in UK before the effects of lockdown could have changed things. Exponential growth of the disease stops very quickly everywhere and it becomes linear and then goes negative as more of the people that are able to catch the disease have had it.

By:
Angoose
When: 03 Jun 20 12:12
Are you a big fan of Chubby Checker ?
By:
InsiderTrader
When: 03 Jun 20 12:12
?
By:
PorcupineorPineapple
When: 03 Jun 20 13:09
Sweden and UK now with more daily deaths than the rest of Europe put together.


Great work team!
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 03 Jun 20 13:17
Johnson saving Sweden blushes
By:
SamuelMertensBertens
When: 03 Jun 20 13:44

Jun 3, 2020 -- 11:00AM, InsiderTrader wrote:


Interesting the countries they choose to compare Sweden to.For instance why is Iceland on their list? A country of under 400k people with 10 deaths. France and UK are closer to Sweden than Iceland.Sweden is mid-rank in Europe. With countries that locked down above and below it.Lockdown itself is not the issue. It is all about how the old/vulverable were cared for.Remember when this thread started everyone was saying we need 'lockdown' to flatten the curve.Well everywhere lockdown or no lockdown has flattened the curve.


Sweden is mid-rank in Europe?
For deaths per million Sweden is now 5th in Europe (not counting small countries like Andorra and San Marino) and going by current trend is likely to be second only behind Belgium a few weeks from now.
Sweden's death numbers are terrible compared to neighboring countries which are very useful to compare with.

By:
InsiderTrader
When: 03 Jun 20 14:01

Jun 3, 2020 -- 1:09PM, PorcupineorPineapple wrote:


Sweden and UK now with more daily deaths than the rest of Europe put together.Great work team!


UK with lockdown worse than Sweden without.

By:
1st time poster
When: 03 Jun 20 14:02
reports thaT the R rate in berlin has risen to 1.95 after large public gatherings in city since lockdown measures were lifted
By:
InsiderTrader
When: 03 Jun 20 14:07
300 cases in Berlin with 35 new cases yesterday.

Of course the R rate is higher at the start of an outbreak when number infected are tiny then declines.

The maths of Covid is very simple.
By:
1st time poster
When: 03 Jun 20 14:10
been battered for months on multiple threads on the simple maths of covid, CryCry
By:
InsiderTrader
When: 03 Jun 20 14:12
Certainly not the exponenial growth some of the doomsters predicted.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 03 Jun 20 14:15
If everybody has corona r =0
By:
1st time poster
When: 03 Jun 20 14:17
when valance was predicting 20,000 as a result and deaths were under a 100 ,12 weeks ago,even with lockdown measures was it Hopkins uni predicted 66,000 deaths for the uk, pretty damned good I,d say
and although it cant be proved ,extrapalate current known figures and ferguson was spot on and quoted again yesterday by hancock and last week by doris
By:
InsiderTrader
When: 03 Jun 20 14:23
Rework ferguson with the virus having a higher number infected than he thought at the time and you get different numbers.

High deaths in UK is due to not protecting care homes in order to protect the face of the NHS.
By:
lapsy pa
When: 03 Jun 20 14:30
Nothing to do with herd immunity (even by stealth)? let as many people get infected and act when cannot cope,just enough so hospitals aren't overwhelmed?
By:
lapsy pa
When: 03 Jun 20 14:37
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/17/britain-uk-coronavirus-response-johnson-drops-go-it-alone/
By:
PorcupineorPineapple
When: 03 Jun 20 15:02

Jun 3, 2020 -- 2:01PM, InsiderTrader wrote:


Jun  3, 2020 -- 12:09PM, PorcupineorPineapple wrote:Sweden and UK now with more daily deaths than the rest of Europe put together.Great work team!UK with lockdown worse than Sweden without.


Both blase and slow to react, while mulling over the idea of herd immunity before tightening up once it was too late.

We had access to other recent outbreaks elsewhere as well as seeing how it was spreading before the Italy outbreak and both countries thought the rest of the world wasn't doing it right and they could be smarter. Not for long though.

By:
1st time poster
When: 03 Jun 20 15:06
we don't no how many  people are infected,we don't even no how may people are getting tested
last 3 days there,s less positive results but if as some whistle blower says only 40,000 people were tested as a % positive test,s are going up not down,at the same time as their encouraging shielded people to go outside and mingle
By:
InsiderTrader
When: 03 Jun 20 15:18

Jun 3, 2020 -- 3:06PM, 1st time poster wrote:


we don't no how many  people are infected,we don't even no how may people are getting testedlast 3 days there,s less positive results but if as some whistle blower says only 40,000 people were tested as a % positive test,s are going up not down,at the same time as their encouraging shielded people to go outside and mingle


You got a link?

By:
1st time poster
When: 03 Jun 20 15:20
a link to what the 40,000. was a bbc source on twitter last night,easily solved though handjob could just produce the figures
By:
InsiderTrader
When: 03 Jun 20 15:22
Are they encouraging sheilded people to mingle.

I thought it was go outside once a day but keep away from everyone whilst out.
By:
1st time poster
When: 03 Jun 20 15:24
well why didn't they encourage them to get out,when everyone else was in Laugh
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