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Have Sweden flattened the curve without trashing the economy?

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By:
tobermory
When: 20 May 20 00:23
Another theory I read was that the BCG vaccine is a factor.

Still mandatory in most East European countries, but largely abandoned in the West. Sweden dropped it a decade or so before Denmark/Norway.

Italy seems to have been the country that used it least of all, never mandatory at any point.
By:
tobermory
When: 20 May 20 00:28
you havent answered how long immunity lasts or how strong immunity is? you cant because you dont know, it's a guess

No, of course I don't know that. Most scientists, whether they agree or not with particular policies, seem to think there will be immunity. Reports of people being re infected that I have looked at mostly seem to have been debunked later on.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 20 May 20 00:29
It's like listening to trump

I heard a rumour about this as the mass slaughter continues
By:
jollyswagman
When: 20 May 20 00:33
as i said before, all infected seem to be producing antibodies which suggests some immunity but no one has a clue how strong or how long. we dont know what proportion of the population of sweden have been infected either. i dont know the answer tobermory but you seem to have hitched yourself onto this approach without being able to show much evidence for it. it looks like a guess.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 20 May 20 00:34
Last crackpot theory was warm weather was stopping it, but look at Brazil....



Trump... Johnson... Bolsonaro

Three worst at coping with corona

Any other connection?
By:
tobermory
When: 20 May 20 00:43

May 20, 2020 -- 12:33AM, jollyswagman wrote:


as i said before, all infected seem to be producing antibodies which suggests some immunity but no one has a clue how strong or how long. we dont know what proportion of the population of sweden have been infected either. i dont know the answer tobermory but you seem to have hitched yourself onto this approach without being able to show much evidence for it. it looks like a guess.


Well I don't know, but based on what I am seeing in the stats it appears right now that herd immunity is happening, with the worst affected areas being the first to run out of new cases. I don't care about being 'right all along', and I will be changing my opinion if the figures change. I'm sure 8 weeks ago I was probably saying the lockdown was a sensible and necessary thing, but now I can't see that it has made any difference.

By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 20 May 20 00:48
Lockdown not made any dufference

Not even as bright as trump.
By:
tobermory
When: 20 May 20 00:57
Well what is the evidence that lockdown has made a difference ?

It is a widespread belief that the lockdown has made a difference, even a 'no brainer' , but statistically I am not seeing it.

On lockdown day - March 23rd - Camden had 60 cases. Hull had 1. The score the last time I checked was Camden 617, Hull 646.

Of course a lockdown when the UK had 0 infections would have made a difference. But when was that do we think ? I think probably before Xmas.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 20 May 20 01:00
Some people started self lockdown long before 23rd
thats probably saved a few thousand,.

How do you think this virus is transmitted?

Give yer heed a shake
By:
jollyswagman
When: 20 May 20 01:01
which stats show herd immunity is happening? sweden look like they have a steady stream of infections to me. i have no idea where you get this right all along saying from, never mind the need to put it in hyphens.

i havent a clue what the answer is but see very little evidence to support herd immunity as a strategy at this stage.

see that article i posted about lock down earlier, maybe too much attention paid to official timings and not enough to when the public moved things.
By:
Coachbuster
When: 20 May 20 01:09
cases will be more now because of the testing regardless of any lockdown
By:
tobermory
When: 20 May 20 01:14
I'm just saying that in  future I could be agreeing with what you guys are saying now, but at present I don't believe the lockdown has reduced case numbers, just spread then over time maybe. That the worst areas of March now have the fewest cases suggest to me that herd immunity is happening. in London an infected person is just meeting up with people who were already infected. It seems the most likely explanation. Is there an alternative explanation ?

Yes, it is true people were taking precautions before official advice. I recall walking past pubs when they were still open and there was one customer in there. But I would expect this was a uniform thing across the UK and cannot explain variations in case numbers between different cities at different times.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 20 May 20 01:18
How is the virus transmitted?
By:
tobermory
When: 20 May 20 01:23
I expect it is transmitted very easily, droplets expelled when people speak, let alone cough.

And i expect it was here in December and massively seeded in the population with mostly asymptomatic cases by February, and then it just runs it's course.
By:
jollyswagman
When: 20 May 20 01:31
i dont know but if there are lots of asymptomatic cases but that is potentially a lot quicker way out, i dont see any factual studies supporting it though.

'lock down' is very blunt and pointless if we havent progressed testing, tracing and isolating. imo.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 20 May 20 01:39
So if we lockdown how does that impact upon transmission opportunities?
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 20 May 20 01:42
We lockdown until we recover the position we should have had with a decent early track and trace and a lockdown in due order.


We should have had track and trace ready to go a month ago


We should be testing 250,000 people a day already not 65k folk twice a day
By:
dukeofpuke
When: 20 May 20 02:09
you can test if you have a test that works so question to you is how the fck do you do that ahh lets make one (how long) lets buy one (who from) how accurate 99% will give about up to 50 wrong test per 1000 thats ok as long as none of them work in hospitals care homes

dont forget this is a new virus does it lie dormant undetected before during after tests is there only 1 virus strain at play or is there 10 50 100 1000 who knows nobody does

so people on here on the news politicians etc dont kmow what they are talking about

in fact nobody does everybody is guessing even the virologists but they have the knowledge to get somewhere

so making assumptions telling people do this do that isnt going to work

after this is all over there will be deniers conspiracy theorists who will have their point of view and you will never ever change their minds

on the other side you will have the believers snowflakes millennials msm and their agenda

so matter what anybody says on here (a miniscule close to zero impact on what the rest of the world thinks forum) will not change anything anyone ever in the history of time
By:
InsiderTrader
When: 20 May 20 10:33
jollyswagman
19 May 20 22:56
Joined: 04 Jul 15
| Topic/replies: 9,252 | Blogger: jollyswagman's blog
well they will have the option of going for herd immunity themselves if that proves a goer so they certainly do have more options. no answer from you tobermory as to how they have done compared to all the countries i listed. and as donny alludes to, what evidence do you have on herd immunity? how long does it last, how strong is it and how widespread is herd immunity in sweden? all i know is that everyone infected is producing antibodies whether asymptomatic or symptomatic, and that doesnt answer the questions i have just asked.



How do you know this? Millions could be fighting it off without needing to produce antibodies. This could be due to a number of reasons (genetics, other vaccines, anti-bodies for other viruses etc). Something is clearly happening to stem to spread EVERYWHERE without high numbers testing 'positive' for the so called 'SARS-CoV-2' genetic sequence.

As for Sweden they have clearly flattened and more the curve without the need for lockdown. Lockdown has been a disaster for the UK and will cost countless lives in the future.

Not to mention what selfish adults are taking away from our children in closing schools. I see unions and others are still refusing to even open primary schools for our kids despite them being open in Sweden harmlessly throughout. Disgraceful.
By:
1st time poster
When: 20 May 20 10:47
sweeden have had more deaths per capita than anyother country in last 7 days,keeping uk of top spot,good fight on forum
By:
InsiderTrader
When: 20 May 20 11:21
Where on earth did you get that data from?

How many deaths do you think Sweden have had in the last 7 days?

Here is the official real data:
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa
By:
1st time poster
When: 20 May 20 11:29
sweeden has had 6,25 deaths per million  1st place
uk has had 5.75 deaths per million       2nd place

mail on line
By:
InsiderTrader
When: 20 May 20 11:50
link please
By:
InsiderTrader
When: 20 May 20 11:52
What was Brazil's death per million last 7 days?
By:
1st time poster
When: 20 May 20 11:56
brazil not quoted usa 4.17
By:
edy
When: 20 May 20 11:59

May 20, 2020 -- 11:21AM, InsiderTrader wrote:


Where on earth did you get that data from?How many deaths do you think Sweden have had in the last 7 days?Here is the official real data:https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa


...the official figures in Sweden are delayed by several days.

By:
edy
When: 20 May 20 11:59
i.e it is more than likely that deaths will be added to May 19, May 18, May 17..over the coming days.
By:
potlis
When: 20 May 20 12:01
The only true comparison to make is what Sweden was told to expect in the event of no lockdown ( modelling) compared to What they have actually experienced, and thats an uncomfortable truth for the lockdown fanatics.

Meanwhile, down here on the south coast, we have gone from almost no visitors to being overrun in the last few days, and it’s expected to get even busier with this weather and ice cream, chippys and now beer being sold along the promenade, we have had low infections and not many Deaths up until now, so if the lockdown was responsible for the low numbers then we can expect a massive spike over the coming week, let’s see shall we.
By:
InsiderTrader
When: 20 May 20 12:02
6.25 deaths per million is 63 deaths in Sweden. There have been around 150-200 (17 deaths per million)

5.75 deaths per million is 380 deaths in the UK. There have been around 2600-2700 (39 deaths per million)

Without a link to your data source not much to respond to.
By:
Cardinal Scott
When: 20 May 20 12:06
The true comparison is with their Nordic neighbours especially Denmark which has more population density.   Its a massive Swedish Fail on all evidence to this point.

By:
edy
When: 20 May 20 12:30
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8336695/Britain-second-highest-number-deaths-Europe-capita-Covid-19-week.html

This is the link to it (You could've really just gone to the Daily Mail website, ctrl+f "Sweden" and found it super quickly yourself after 1st time poster said it was from mail online)

It's average daily deaths per million over a seven day period, not 7 day total per million. The data is from

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-deaths-per-million-7-day-average?country=SWE+GBR

As for your official Swedish numbers once more: The Swedes have some reporting delays (as does probably everybody), but they don't attribute every newly reported death to the day the report came in. So e.g for May 18 it currently says 6 deaths. It is more than likely that additional deaths for May 18 will be reported today, maybe tomorrow, then the day after etc. All those deaths then get added to the current number, get added to the 6 current deaths. Therefore, the official Swedish numbers should never be taken as final for a week or so.

John Hopkins University just takes any newly reported deaths and lists them on the day the report came in. Not sure which of those OurWorldInData (or the European CDC for that matter) uses.
By:
InsiderTrader
When: 20 May 20 12:52
Edy even on those strange rolling averages the peak in non-lockdown Sweden was below peak in lockdown Italy, Spain, UK, Ireland, Belgium. Many countries missed off.

I see no evidence from those charts that lockdown has prevented any deaths. All the countries with the highest peaks went with lockdown.
By:
edy
When: 20 May 20 13:03
Swedes are just super sensible, smart, distanced to begin with people that don't need to be locked down forcibly in order to practice social distancing. Social distancing is their preferred state of affairs. When they hear a neighbour on the floor of their apartment complex, they hide behind the door for a few minutes until the air is clear. That, and they are all super studly.

Can't apply the same logic to silly people like the Brits who sometimes even hug and touch each other voluntarily. Seriously, I heard British people sometimes touch each other outside of the bedroom. It's super gross. Or that they do friendly chatter with neighbours and have friends to meet.

It's entirely different circumstances really. As Cardinal Scott pointed out, if you wish to make comparisons, it's likely best to do so with directly neighbouring countries with more similar circumstances and human material.
By:
InsiderTrader
When: 20 May 20 13:10
The reality is the deaths forecast from no lockdown have never happened anywhere is the world.

No where has lost anything like 0.9% of its population.

Even Belarus has only lost 0.00175% of its population with no lockdown.
By:
edy
When: 20 May 20 13:11
I don't think anybody anywhere ever said that 0.9% of the population were likely to die in any given country on the planet.
By:
edy
When: 20 May 20 13:13
Well, apart from the anti-vaxxers maybe who think Bill Gates is out to reduce the population by six or so billion people.
By:
jollyswagman
When: 20 May 20 13:14
do the models allow for how people change behaviour themselves?
By:
1st time poster
When: 20 May 20 13:14
keep hearing all this hugging talk,no one according to experts catches anything from hugging,its through inhaling a large dose of droplets from a cough,sneeze in your face, you
plus picking it up from hard surfaces,door handles,seats,benchres,hand rails, etc you can be a mile away from someone but if touch a handle 10 mins after someone puts droplets on it,you can be infected if you later touch your face,which of course raises the argument how do you push,shove a large dose of droplets into your mouth,nose, etc,if indeed you've managed to pick a large dose up
reared again yesterday and posted by many,me included 10 weeks ago,in the wash up we,ll probably find out its passed on just like normal flu,s are passed on
By:
jollyswagman
When: 20 May 20 13:20
1tp, i found this and someone put it on horse racing too

https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them
By:
Angoose
When: 20 May 20 13:31
I'd imagine that the danger from touching infected surfaces comes from you then using your unwashed hands to eat food, passing the virus from your hand, to your crisps or biscuit, and then in to your mouth.
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