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Have Sweden flattened the curve without trashing the economy?
Have Sweden flattened the curve without trashing the economy?
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So why is Sweden faring better without a lockdown than Italy/Spain/UK ?
I get it, there are differences between those 3 and Sweden. But that being so why compare UK to Australia (even New Zealand! as some on here do) and conclude it is because they locked down sooner ? Seems if a country with no lockdown is better off than countries that have one it is because of various factors that are different in that place from the others. But if Australia/NZ are doing much better it can only be because they locked down earlier, with no consideration for advantages they had from geography, demography, climate 3rd Goalposts get shifted around IMO |
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if we have 30-50 thousand dead with a weak lock down, how many would have died with no lock down?
maybe the swedes are not carrying on regardless, maybe without being ordered more of them are staying in than normal? maybe all comparisons are meaningless???? i am sure of nothing i just think trader often expresses certainties when we really cannot be certain. InsiderTrader • May 8, 2020 6:49 PM BST Sweden done a great job. |
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I dont know of course but my guess would be 30-50k right now.
US states with Swedish type measures are much better off than states with lockdown (even with New York removed from the comparisons). Of course at some point there was a date where we had no cases in the UK and if we had stopped all planes,ships and trains arriving to mainland UK we could have kept it out. But realistically when was that date ? November perhaps. Then later there would have been a point where cases could have been isolated and quarantined to stop the spread. But what date would that have been ? Mid January I would think. After that it is seeded here and just takes its course. Some areas it gets going quicker and cases away quicker, but all much the same in the end imo |
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Plenty of old folk in South africa
You just want to pick comparisons that suit and ignore the other 95% Of stats |
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It seems from reports or findings whatever you want to call them the biggest problems are from countries that kept airports open with little defence on visitors.
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so the same number regardless of timing, i think that is nonsense.
https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1251704323035344896/photo/1 greece opted to lock down two weeks before spain, they stand as of now at 14 deaths per million compared to 562 for spain. athens is one of the most crowded cities in europe i think??? |
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Compare Sweden to Italy and Spain unfair
Everybody should have learnt as they were hit first UK and USA run by clowns who dismissed the early warnings, suffered, and then locked down. If that's all Sweden are beating then they ain't doing well |
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airports closed, face masks in public, isolation of the infected.
https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1258453876681977856 all this is hypothetical anyway, what should we do now given where we are? (i havent a clue, maybe there is no choice but to let millions get infected, the problem is this is a new disease and we have no idea of long term effects of those who get ill or how long any immunity lasts). |
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Still no facenask recommendations not even on public transport because we are so badly organised and are not making enough masks.
Foreign airlines looking at supplying all passengers on arrival at airport after lockdown is lifted. Would love clown Boris to belatedly recommend use of masks, and supply the public. |
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Spanish police were handing them out today..they had boxes of them.
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jollyswagman
08 May 20 21:03 Joined: 04 Jul 15 | Topic/replies: 9,152 | Blogger: jollyswagman's blog so you are admitting that the czechs and south koreans have done better than sweden, thank you ^ Where did I say that? All I am saying is Sweden flattened the curve without a lockdown. |
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About a quarter of people in Stockholm had the virus at the start of May, according to a mathematical model by Sweden’s public health agency, which Mr Tegnell said was part of the reason the number of cases in the capital had fallen recently. By contrast, tests this week in Norway’s capital Oslo suggested that under 2 per cent of the population had been infected.
But Mr Tegnell said uncertainty about how long virus immunity would last meant it was unlikely Sweden would reach “herd immunity”, a level of the disease where so many people are infected — usually about 80 per cent — that it stops spreading. “I don’t think we or any country in the world will reach herd immunity in the sense that the disease goes away because I don’t think this is a disease that goes away,” he added. Many countries’ hope is that they can keep the virus at bay until a vaccine is found. But Mr Tegnell said that, even in the best-case scenario, it was likely to take “years” to develop one, before it could be administered to an entire population. https://www.ft.com/content/a2b4c18c-a5e8-4edc-8047-ade4a82a548d “It’s a big mistake to sit down and say ‘we should just wait for a vaccine’. It will take much longer than we think. And in the end, we don’t know how good a vaccine it will be. It’s another reason to have a sustainable policy in place.” Sweden’s approach has been to have a strategy that could last for months, if not years, without the need for big changes. That contrasts with nearly all other European countries, which are grappling with how to reopen their societies without sparking an increase in transmission. |
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sweeden have roughly 10 times worse death rate than their nearest neighbours
in that swcenario if we followed sweeden we,d be somewhere between 320,000 and 530,000 deaths depending on whose numbers you believe and nhs,care homes getting burried |
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Even trump has given up defending the Swedish slaughter of their population.
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The assumption being lockdown works? I still reckon lockdown reduces people’s immunity to a whole range of illnesses including covid-19.
Lockdown was done to release pressure on the NHS. Then we had the R rate. Shifting goalposts as tober says. As an aside I know a local GP who’s had her hours cut by 30% due to fewer patients. It’s madness. |
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Swedish garden centre group uses new supply chain management
Granngården has implemented RELEX supply chain management technology. |
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The R rate has always been a key factor, do even the most basic research on the spread of infectious diseases.
And don't you think that their is a very strong correlation between the R rate and managing load on the NHS  |
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R was way too high in uk for way too long
It was ignored for at least 2 weeks Hence the 55,000 death toll thus far. Chance of hitting 200,000 forced clown to lockdown, at which point they said 20,000 dead would be a good result... They probably expected to get away with hiding care home deaths at that point |
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Goose, depends on what percentage of infections lead to hospitalised visits.
With vast numbers infected and experiencing little or no symptoms, people should be allowed to live their lives. |
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Angoose
09 May 20 10:53 Joined: 18 Jul 02 | Topic/replies: 16,102 | Blogger: Angoose's blog The R rate has always been a key factor, do even the most basic research on the spread of infectious diseases. And don't you think that their is a very strong correlation between the R rate and managing load on the NHS ^ There is no such thing as an R rate for a nation or even an area. The R rate for going to an orgy will be higher than the R rate for going to the park keeping basic social distancing. |
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But there is a very clear concept of a rate of transmission.
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I guess there is no crime rate, no unemployment rate, no obesity rate, no death rate, no whatever other rate for a nation or broader area either.
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And a very clear desire amongst the general public to have overly simplistic explanations to highly complex concepts.
Cognitive dissonance must be avoided at all costs, if the public were encouraged to actually think, there is no limit to what could that lead to  |
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Stattos love the R figure as it gives them an illusion they have a handle on this thing.
As IT says, unless it’s looked at in different scenarios it’s useless. If there were mean and median figures it may be more helpful. |
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If you plot a graph of daily new admissions to hospital you will get a fair idea of what
R was a week to 10 days before the admissions The R this government use seems to be underdefined but the concept is still fairly simple |
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Ok I’ll play..
‘No obesity rate’. Sure there’s an obesity rate. Doesn’t mean everyone is fat or that all fat people die young. It’s a stat, that’s all. Stabbing rife in London. Does that mean we shouldn’t go to London? No, it’s a stat that doesn’t most people’s travel plans. |
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Goose - that’s a polite way of saying they haven’t a scooby!
If the R rate is 0.5, their lowest estimate, we’re happy. Let’s be optimistic and get this country moving. |
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It's a polite way of saying that it is a highly complex subject, there is significant variability across the country, and they have far less data than they would like to be able to provide a bit more certainty.
It's also a recognition that humans like to have simple answers to complex problems. If they stuck up some slides of how they arrived at their estimate, the nation would recoil in horror  |
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If you play you should at least stay within context and general meaning.
IT, to my understanding, tried to say there is no overall R for a nation or area because the rate of transmission will differ a lot between e.g going to an orgy and going to the park. Applying the same logic, there would also be no overall obesity rate, unemployment rate, crime rate, rate of people having sex with each other, or a lot of other rates for a nation or broader area because all those will differ based on circumstances and surroundings. People that go to an orgy are more likely to perform coitus with each other than people meeting at a park while keeping social distance. Obviously that's total nonsense and there is an overall unemployment rate for the UK. Just like there is quite obviously an overall rate of transmission for the UK. That you can break it down into smaller clusters for targeted measures is a given, but I don't think many people will argue that. |
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Epidemiologist Mark Woolhouse, a professor at the University of Edinburgh and an adviser to Tony Blair's Government during the foot and mouth outbreak in 2001, described the R as a 'very, very crude number' which was too general to use by itself to decide on policy.
He told the paper he was 'very against' using it as a policy objective in anyway and would be 'unhappy' if it was the deciding factor for lockdown. - I think that sums it up very well. |
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Were you a big fan of Tony Blair's government ?
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And yes, you also need to consider prevalence and many other factors alongside R.
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little or no symptons,can you name one ,have you met one,about 700,000 in last week tested exposed to virus essential workers ,all supposedly with symptons,96% of tested negative,
your right about one thing those who,ve never had it showed little or no symptons  ,the mildest version ive heard of a positiuve test is they wouldnt wish it on their worst enemy,that equates to a derath sentence for the snowflake generstion |
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edy - rates for this and that do not necessarily determine an individual’s ability to work or even leave the house.
The R rate is skewed by care home stats. Re other examples, Obesity is bad for health but that does not mean all fast food or cream buns should be banned. Crime rates vary but I don’t lose sleep because there’s a spate of burglaries 50 miles away. |
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You are not patrolling the streets of London anymore because Khan and the MET don't have it under control?
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Goose - what’s that got to do with the price of fish?
He was an advisor and his opinion as an epidemiologist is worth noting. 1TP - we were told from the outset most would have little or no symptoms. |
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been obese high;lighted as a major factor in fighting virus,george useless speaking on behalf of the government stood at a podium yesterday celebrating the fact drive through heart attack in a bun burger chains should be able to open up,
,its like holding a buy one get one free in a gun shop after a mass shooting |
