847 Deaths

Some predictions saying we can expect 40,000 deaths in the long run

half way mark surpassed already id estimate

Halfway would put us close to 40k wouldnt it. We are at 14.5 and the figures are a couple of days in arrears so add say 1500 and theres probably 3000 in care homes. Thats 19,000 so not far from 40k if you double it.

The fact that the number off cc beds in use is in decline, means we've clearly passed the worst in terms of infections, as naturally people get infected a week or two before needing a cc bed.  That's a more reflective live figure than deaths, which seems to be lagging in it's timeliness, although obviously there's a lag anyway between needing a cc bed and death.  Belgium now the European epicentre.  21% higher in terms of deaths per million than Italy and rising.

A guesstimate, but maybe a median average of 12 days between infection and needing a hospital bed and then maybe a median average of 7 days between needing a hospital bed and death.  On that basis, it will be maybe be another 4 days or so before we see daily death figures going down, maybe more if there is a delay in reporting daily deaths

30-40k deaths feels the most likely tally at the end of the Summer.

Can anybody explain why today we have declared the third highest daily number of new cases (5599), if we are allegedly close to the peak of deaths?  And especially as the other two daily numbers that exceed todays total look to be outliers or a realignment of the method of counting?

prob more testing

Because we are testing more Petraco.  Over 90% of cases go undetected, imo it will be nearer 3 million than 1 million and the official figure is barely over 100k.  There is also a delay between infection and confirmation of infection, which generally only happens a few days after entering hospital.

OK thanks for that clarification.  Just looking at the graph for Italy they last exceeded our daily figure on March 27th, so that puts us about three weeks behind them, if that means anything at all...

It's only the ratio of death to total population that's a meaningful statistic ;others are useful merely to show the direction of travel.

We are on Day 30 after having reached 100 deaths.
At the same stage, Italy had 14,681 deaths.

Population of Italy is 60.5M, UK is 67.9M.

Number of people tested last five days   8,346  11,879   11,170   13,829   13,943
Positive results  4,342   5,252   4,603   4,617   5,599

One day the care homes and at homes will be included...I wonder when?

We are 14 day behind Italy counting from the day of 100 deaths.

Still haven't peaked for new cases, 4,799 per day average Apr 1 -10, 4,991 for April 11 - 17.

And don't forget, deaths are a lagging indicator. You need to focus on the leading indicator i.e. new cases

Surely these are registered deaths? Some may have died a week ago. Hard to know when the peak is if that’s the case.

Here is a chart that shows the typical progress of the virus

Apr 17, 2020 -- 4:38PM, Injera wrote:

Surely these are registered deaths? Some may have died a week ago. Hard to know when the peak is if that’s the case.

When they discuss the peak, they are referring to new infections.

Angoose, i saw that chart last time you posted it...honestly fella theres no way 9/10 hospital patients are walking away from this

Not my data Eric, but will be somewhat reliable for the times for each of the stages though.
If the government was to release the number of recovered cases, we could arrive at a death rate.

Spain is 20%, Italy 36%, Germany 5%.

Not all in the past 24 hours though are they

Do any of you lot actually read the sodding story in full? or is it just the number you see in the headline ?

Of the new deaths, 138 occurred on 16 April, 320 on 15 April, and 109 on 14 April.

They ain't 24 hour death stats ffs, they even tell you that in the story, but its the fear that counts so just post the number in full and watch people panic as per

Utterly pathetic

Isn't there an electric socket you can go and play with ?

It's a 24 hour reporting cycle, there will be another figure tomorrow in that same cycle.

So yesterdays deaths? are they for the 11th 12th and 13th?

Because we were told last week there's a week lag, but that's not baring out with these death figures

Angoose so the same people die twice do they?

You lot are so stupid its quite sad

There is aan administrative process to go through, some deaths will be processed faster than others for a variety of reasons.

Why don't we arrange some formal IQ tests to determine who the stupid one is.

These deaths still aren't a 24 hour death stat ffs, some are happening on this date, some on this date, some on this date

Who's stupid again???

Sontar you are a lone wolf on above, you are almost a lone wolf on Trump thread, does this not tell you something............

please stop all the bollox............

They ain't 24 hour deaths stats no matter how you try to pathetically spin it

Utterly mind boggling

How is deaths happening on the 14th to the 16th a 24 hour death stat??? its a 3 day death stat?

Utterly pathetic arguments on here

Ban me ffs

Put us out of our bloody misery

Joke

Can't you just go away  and teach the Romanians how to pick strawberries or something 

the leading indicator is cc beds in use imo.  It's not a daily figure, it's not as nearly as likely to be misreported, (as with new cases and deaths) and it's not subject to unknown testing criteria. (as with new cases)

You see no argument just petty insults

Pathetic ain't the word, no wonder they can get away with it

3 day death stat and this lot think its a 24 hour rolling count

They couldn't make it more black and white

"professional gamblers".... you've got to be kidding me

Apr 17, 2020 -- 4:54PM, CLYDEBANK29 wrote:

the leading indicator is cc beds in use imo.

Hurry up and report my facking posts will you

They'll soon ban don't worry, this forum is a facking joke

Terry's well out of it

SS, if you had a brain, you'd be dangerous, I'm going to do both of us a favour and block you.

Bye bye

Absolutely thick as pig s***

Eric.Cartman
17 Apr 20 15:40
Joined: 07 May 14
| Topic/replies: 327 | Blogger: Eric.Cartman's blog
Angoose, i saw that chart last time you posted it...honestly fella theres no way 9/10 hospital patients are walking away from this

^

I personally know 2 hospital patients that walked away from this after testing 'positive'. One did not even have any symptoms of Covid19 and was in for something else but was tested anyway.

Deaths reported for the past 3 days = 24 hour death stat

Deaths reported for up to 4 weeks = 24 hour death stat

Absolute b0llocks

lol Angoose.  Unrelated to your decision, but I blocked him too.  There's only so much BS I can take.

Some of this lot are clearly benefitting from this and don't want it to stop

Angoose is the biggest scumbag I've ever had the misfortune of coming into conversation with online, he gets off on seeing death figures, even to the point of bringing his graphs and stats to try and back his arguments up

Absolute scum

How thick can some people get seriously ?

They can't be that stupid

Anyway away from all the hysteria , over 75,000 have dropped dread due to either cancer or heart problems since January 1st in the Uk

Why not just report the posts and have me booted, its what you pieces of s*** do best anyway

Ain't bothered about being banned, you can stick this facking forum up your a*se

wolf I'm done

I ain't bothering, just hurry up and get me booted

Surely there's got to be a way of getting the forum account removed myself?

Lifetime ban it ffs

There's only so much s*** you can read before one loses it ffs

I realise there not yours...the dutch antibody tests which suggested 3% infection of population (which to me seemed reasonable)....if you project that against deaths you get a death rate of roughly 1.5%...again i do feel this is slightly optimistic (i original thought it was about 3%). But with the Lockdown meaning those at high risk are much more protected while a lot of low risk are continuing to work, its probably the case that the average age of a hospital admission is lower and therefore survival rates are higher. A 1.5% death rate would have the UK at roughly 1 million cases on the 1st of april and around 2million as of today.

Apr 17, 2020 -- 5:02PM, wolf3011 wrote:

Anyway away from all the hysteria , over 75,000 have dropped dread due to either cancer or heart problems since January 1st in the Uk

Sadly, approximately 450 die from cancer each day. It is a scourge that robbed me of three of my grandparents when I was but a nipper.

transport use

Indeed Angoose, but the point remains we are all dodging these horrors every day and the figures dying from corona are relatively low taking into account everyones mortality and death rates from other diseases. Thousands of people in the UK die from socio economic factors each year but they are swept under the carpet yet the whole economy comes to a half over coronavirus

comes to a halt*

I think the death rate is between 0.5% and 1.25% myself, which I'm basing on figures from Iceland and the Diamond Princess.

Calm down Sontaren ;it's only a forum and I'm inclined to agree with you that the headline figures are deliberately sensational. As I keep saying the only valid stat is deaths to total population ratio.

The headline figs aren't sensational they are lagged due to the way deaths are recorded but they are consistent.

The headline number of deaths reported is always behind the figs we actually see and of course there is a major lag in the total deaths outside hospital when these are added as they aren't daily.

Sontaran was 100% correct that the deaths aren't recorded for a specific 24 hour period, each day the figure is what new recorded deaths are available since the last update the previous 24 hours (some going back many days).

But then everyone who has posted on here knows that. Can't see why it needed the knickers twisted.

The DP death rate is 13 from just over 700 positive cases.  It's actually increased by 2 in the last week, so maybe there's more to come.  That is the best sample there is, as everyone was tested.  The DP has a ratio of 1 passenger to 0.4 crew, so roughly 500 passengers, most of whom I imagine are elderly.  I imagine if you were really unwell, you wouldn't have been fit enough to travel, but I doubt you'd have any under 18s on board, and as the virus gets significantly more deadly over the age of 60, the death rate on the DP must surely be above the average death rate.

Hope you right Clydebank..would take 0.5% all day long...Diamond Princess good shout(presume they tested everyone on board)...small sample size but would be nice to know the ages of infected (crew/passengers)

how can the number of deaths be around the same amount everyday? feels like the number is artifical

Well lets call it Deaths that are reported Each day that may include previous Days, as will Every other day going forward,What difference does it make ,there are prob deaths that are not included todays figures ??

We have been told 847 souls have departed ,What is becoming obvious is that My figure of Adding

10% for other Deaths appears to be too low

striding ...are you fully recovered ?

Apr 17, 2020 -- 5:37PM, casemoney wrote:

Well lets call it Deaths that are reported Each day that may include previous Days, as will Every other day going forward,What difference does it make ,there are prob deaths that are not included todays figures ?? We have been told 847 souls have departed ,What is becoming obvious is that My figure of Adding 10% for other Deaths appears to be too low

how many of these deaths were by natural causes but being reported as covid-19, the whole thing seems strange

Yes Posy cheers still can't be sure it was Covid which is utterly frustrating tbh they stopped the tesing of general public a few days before and by time i rang them i was told to stay at home unless symptoms got serious with breathing problems or weren't getting better after a week.

This country needed the tesing back then for the public but we just were not set up for it like the other countries.

The govts modelling showed the virus would kill 200k+ up to 500k without this lockdown scenario and the testing was fooked to help track positive tests.

No lockdown from the modelling would have meant The NHS pretty soon turning sick people away and mass deaths at home, a frightening movie type scenario you can only imagine how society would have reacted.

We just weren't remotely ready for this but we knew it was possible for years which is strange. I certainly had no idea how we lacked to deal with this sort of outbreak.

Been a few on here with Symptoms Striding , Including Myself A couple of weeks back , Couple of the Lads on the Dog forum have lost family/friends  ..

I wish they would sort the what are supposed to be Simple Anti Body kits out ..

There must be a hell of a lot of people in our boat now Casemoney, I'm going back to 6th march for first day of my symptoms, very early.

But this virus with the lags would have been more rife then than they thought at the time and a few days later my area was one of the worst in the country.