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Only 145 in London which I would Imagine is the lowest for a while
Thought overall we may have seen a drop today ,sadly not
Thought overall we may have seen a drop today ,sadly not
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Some predictions saying we can expect 40,000 deaths in the long run
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half way mark surpassed already id estimate
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Halfway would put us close to 40k wouldnt it. We are at 14.5 and the figures are a couple of days in arrears so add say 1500 and theres probably 3000 in care homes. Thats 19,000 so not far from 40k if you double it.
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The fact that the number off cc beds in use is in decline, means we've clearly passed the worst in terms of infections, as naturally people get infected a week or two before needing a cc bed. That's a more reflective live figure than deaths, which seems to be lagging in it's timeliness, although obviously there's a lag anyway between needing a cc bed and death. Belgium now the European epicentre. 21% higher in terms of deaths per million than Italy and rising.
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A guesstimate, but maybe a median average of 12 days between infection and needing a hospital bed and then maybe a median average of 7 days between needing a hospital bed and death. On that basis, it will be maybe be another 4 days or so before we see daily death figures going down, maybe more if there is a delay in reporting daily deaths
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30-40k deaths feels the most likely tally at the end of the Summer.
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Can anybody explain why today we have declared the third highest daily number of new cases (5599), if we are allegedly close to the peak of deaths? And especially as the other two daily numbers that exceed todays total look to be outliers or a realignment of the method of counting?
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prob more testing
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Because we are testing more Petraco. Over 90% of cases go undetected, imo it will be nearer 3 million than 1 million and the official figure is barely over 100k. There is also a delay between infection and confirmation of infection, which generally only happens a few days after entering hospital.
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OK thanks for that clarification. Just looking at the graph for Italy they last exceeded our daily figure on March 27th, so that puts us about three weeks behind them, if that means anything at all...
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It's only the ratio of death to total population that's a meaningful statistic ;others are useful merely to show the direction of travel.
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We are on Day 30 after having reached 100 deaths.
At the same stage, Italy had 14,681 deaths. Population of Italy is 60.5M, UK is 67.9M. |
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Number of people tested last five days 8,346 11,879 11,170 13,829 13,943
Positive results 4,342 5,252 4,603 4,617 5,599 |
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One day the care homes and at homes will be included...I wonder when?
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We are 14 day behind Italy counting from the day of 100 deaths.
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Still haven't peaked for new cases, 4,799 per day average Apr 1 -10, 4,991 for April 11 - 17.
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And don't forget, deaths are a lagging indicator. You need to focus on the leading indicator i.e. new cases
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Surely these are registered deaths? Some may have died a week ago. Hard to know when the peak is if that’s the case.
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Here is a chart that shows the typical progress of the virus
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Angoose, i saw that chart last time you posted it...honestly fella theres no way 9/10 hospital patients are walking away from this
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Not my data Eric, but will be somewhat reliable for the times for each of the stages though.
If the government was to release the number of recovered cases, we could arrive at a death rate. Spain is 20%, Italy 36%, Germany 5%. |
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Not all in the past 24 hours though are they
 Do any of you lot actually read the sodding story in full? or is it just the number you see in the headline ? Of the new deaths, 138 occurred on 16 April, 320 on 15 April, and 109 on 14 April. They ain't 24 hour death stats ffs, they even tell you that in the story, but its the fear that counts so just post the number in full and watch people panic as per Utterly pathetic |
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Isn't there an electric socket you can go and play with ?
It's a 24 hour reporting cycle, there will be another figure tomorrow in that same cycle. |
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So yesterdays deaths? are they for the 11th 12th and 13th?
Because we were told last week there's a week lag, but that's not baring out with these death figures |
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Angoose so the same people die twice do they?
You lot are so stupid its quite sad |
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There is aan administrative process to go through, some deaths will be processed faster than others for a variety of reasons.
Why don't we arrange some formal IQ tests to determine who the stupid one is. |
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These deaths still aren't a 24 hour death stat ffs, some are happening on this date, some on this date, some on this date
Who's stupid again??? |
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Sontar you are a lone wolf on above, you are almost a lone wolf on Trump thread, does this not tell you something............
please stop all the bollox............ |
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They ain't 24 hour deaths stats no matter how you try to pathetically spin it
 Utterly mind boggling |
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How is deaths happening on the 14th to the 16th a 24 hour death stat??? its a 3 day death stat?
Utterly pathetic arguments on here |
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Ban me ffs
Put us out of our bloody misery Joke |
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Can't you just go away and teach the Romanians how to pick strawberries or something
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the leading indicator is cc beds in use imo. It's not a daily figure, it's not as nearly as likely to be misreported, (as with new cases and deaths) and it's not subject to unknown testing criteria. (as with new cases)
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You see no argument just petty insults
Pathetic ain't the word, no wonder they can get away with it |
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3 day death stat and this lot think its a 24 hour rolling count
They couldn't make it more black and white "professional gamblers".... you've got to be kidding me  |
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Hurry up and report my facking posts will you
They'll soon ban don't worry, this forum is a facking joke |
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Terry's well out of it
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