Chit Chat
PETER HITCHENS " numbers just dont add up"
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How do you know the death rate?
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On the other side of the argument less people outside means less deaths from accidents or misadventure
A&Es are apparently very quiet at the moment |
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There will be loads of raw data which can be manipulated however you want to using pivot charts and graphs on excel
I could produce all kinds of misleading graphs etc to create a specific narrative |
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As someone has pointed out on more than one occasion, there will be more deaths from the economic fallout of Corona Virus than deaths from Corona Virus itself long term.
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How will you go about measuring that ?
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"You appear to change your mind on COVID-19 on an hourly basis."
 Pmsl |
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I agree with you, but Hitchins and the like will argue otherwise.
By the way, it's 1,600 per day, 1,688 in 2019, approx. 450 of which are cancer related. |
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Establishing the true affect of this virus will prove very difficult. Lives lost v lives saved +/- economic impact long term and of course ‘regular’ deaths.
If very poorly folk die this year, death rates could be far lower next year. |
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So no one dying of cancer now ?
And into missed appointments, the long last affect this is going to have is going to be horrible. Shutting down a country because it saved money isnt going last long. |
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Excess winter mortality can add 400 a day so 2k a day in bad winters.
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Each country is different. Population density, family demographics, culture variables and govt policy on lockdown. Then you have the issue of transport hubs.
Sadly we are a hub and a destination for millions each week from around the world. |
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Yes. All the more reason to lockdown, especially with England's population density. Shutting off travel from Italy and China would have been smart as well but nobody did that early enough. The UK still has herd immunity as its primary goal, that is the main difference and it is predicted to have the most deaths in Europe as a result.
The modellers estimated 260k deaths without lockdown and perhaps 20k with a lockdown (probably higher now due to allowing it to spread first and not locking down early enough). |
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That's why I don't get why anyone like Hitchens questions the lockdown based on number of deaths occurring during the lockdown period. You are talking about potentially a quarter of a million difference in death numbers based on what the modellers said and then Hitchens completely ignores that number and writes an article about it?
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What are these articles you talk of ? 250k more deaths, one thinks you have been watching too much tv.
Given they dont even know how the virus spreads apart from coughing into someones face. |
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Maybe because it’s hard to predict something that may have happened. Not sure PH is advocating no lockdown. Maybe a more subtle one?
PH is scathing of Ferguson and his modelling. He doesn’t rate him at all. |
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How much do you need to have drunk before you start agreeing with SontaranStratagem
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The idiocy of the man. Preying on the uneducated masses. Never seen new hospitals being opened with the annual flu virus that goes around. I dont know and have no proof with regard the following but common sense tells me the following. Everyone should be wearing a facemask outside. If its good enough for doctors, nurses and nearly every chinese or korean you see on the news it should be good enough for us.obviously it is an airbourne virus that lives on metal plastic, animal fur surfaces. Secondly all politicians are corrupt. The figures have been corrupted. Why is it so complicated counting dead bodies and the doctors reason why they died ? Thirdly you cant believe
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You cant believe anything you hear and only half of what you see
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irish...viruses are not even living organisms, I don't where people are getting this bs about viruses living on surfaces
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If everyone wears a facemask there won't be enough for NHS staff
Counting the dead is complicated by the various other ailments that may have contributed to it |
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you are confusing viruses with bacteria
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I am talking about the UK's own modellers who came up with that figure if the virus was allowed to spread with no restrictions - then your hospitals get overwhelmed for the longest amount of time and more people die from this virus and everything else. That's what happens in a pandemic/epidemic if there are no restrictions.
The same modellers came up with lower figures based on certain lockdown provisions being introduced. Look at the last part of what Hitchens wrote - he is using death numbers which are a lot lower because of the lockdown (and before the peak has even been reached), comparing them with periods where there was no pandemic and asking why are we having a lockdown? The only reason the current death rate is any way similar to those years is because of the lockdown and it will still go higher, yet in the same breath he asks why is a lockdown necessary. Your government, notorious for underfunding the NHS, is throwing up hospitals in 10 days all over the country and that's with a lockdown in place. Do you think they think they would have had enough hospital cover for all the sick at the peak if they are doing that? Did they do that in all those previous years Hitchens mentions? You are locking down the entire country and building numerous new hospitals at a frantic pace, why would you do that if there's not a lot worse to come? I think the govt know they have f'd up in encouraging the spread in the early stages. |
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a virus needs a host that is itself a LIVING organism
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In order to survive longer term it does, but it does not die immediately once it touches a surface. It can survive for a short time and can infect another host if picked up during that time.
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viruses can't "die" because they are not even living
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No one knows if the lockdown works. So saying there would be 10X the number of deaths without it is pretty dubious
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believe what you want, no skin off my nose
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Go lick some toilet seats to test your hypothesis.
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no thanks
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